The study traces the pattern of development of the electricity sector in India through a case study of the state of Andhra Pradesh. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level. The state is selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that may not be captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that there has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation from coal and gas. However, generation from clean sources like hydro has been declining. This changing generation mix has led to a steady increase in emission intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained is used for construction of a baseline for the state. The study reports an increase in the baseline intensity and explores the causes for such an increase.

We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.

This chapter, by PESD fellow Thomas Heller and PESD affiliate P.R. Shukla, was published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change in 2003 as part of their "Beyond Kyoto" series.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a dominate influence on rice output and markets in Southeast Asia. This paper measures ENSO effects on rice production in Indonesia-nationally and regionally-and on world rice prices using the August sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) as the primary gauge of climate variability. Our estimates show that for each degree (C) change in the August SSTA, there is a 1,318 thousand metric ton effect on paddy production in Indonesia and a $23/metric ton change in the world rice price. Ninety percent of the inter-annual changes in paddy production caused by SSTA variations take place within twelve provinces, with Java and South Sulewesi bearing by far the greatest impact. New data and models now combine to provide Indonesia with opportunities for understanding the effects of ENSO events on agriculture, for forming an early consensus on likely ENSO effects for the coming year, and for using forecasts in ways that permit agencies and individuals to do a more credible job of mitigating negative climate effects on food security. Among other suggestions, we propose that an "ENSO Summit" be held each year, sometime between September 15-30, to analyze the likely food-security implications arising from upcoming climate events.

Chengdu, the provincial capital of Sichuan, has undergone rapid transformation during China's post-reform period between 1978 and 2003. One of the leading cities in southwest China, Chengdu is second only to Chongqing in population. Chengdu anchors one end of the Chongqing-Chengdu urban corridor, the fourth most populous urban cluster in China. Although the upgrading of Chongqing Municipality to the equivalent of provincial status in 1997 has increased the city's profile and potential as an administrative, land transportation, and manufacturing center, it is expected that Chengdu's regional and strategic importance as a service and high-tech center will increase in the future. With increased economic specialization among Chinese cities, it is expected that Chengdu and Chongqing cities will increasingly complement each other in terms of function, both enhancing their developmental prospects as a result. Further, the development of western China is a major objective of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The "Go West" policy was introduced in 1999.

In Chengdu, as with many other Chinese cities, a complex interplay of government and private, local, national, and increasingly transnational forces have influenced urban growth. Responding to changes in local, national, and international economic drivers, Chengdu is redefining its economic roles and functions, with direct consequences for the city's physical form. In turn, the spatial manifestation of urban development has important implications for Chengdu's economic potential, social and political stability, and environmental and ecological functioning. Extensive, as opposed to compact, urban form requires massive infrastructure investments, increases energy demand, and has broad environmental impacts, including local and regional climate change, loss of wildlife habitat and biodiversity, and increases in pressures on water resources. From the provision of clean drinking water to the construction of transportation and waste water networks, every aspect of the urbanization process has significant environmental implications.

In recent years, the professional punditry has lofted hydrogen into the firmament of technological wonders. A "hydrogen revolution" is now the most often touted remedy to threats to energy security and the specter of climate change and other environmental harms caused by burning fossil fuels the old fashioned way-combustion. Even as a few doubters question the economics and wisdom of this revolution, today's stewards of conventional wisdom question not whether the hydrogen revolution will occur but, rather, the exact timing and sequence of events what will propel modern society to that shining hydrogenous city on the hill.

It is not the price of the energy carrier that will be the main factor in the hydrogen revolution because the cost of creating hydrogen is already in the noise of all the major energy carriers. Rather, the key question is what will make users switch from today's carriers-refined petroleum and electricity-to something new? The incumbents are locked in to the current technological suite, and lock-in effects can be powerful deterrents to new competitors. We address this question-the prospects for technological change by users-from three perspectives. First, we examine the rates of change that are typically observed in technological systems. There has been much ambiguity in the discussion of a hydrogen revolution about how rapidly the revolution could unfold. That ambiguity, in turn, has led to wildly unrealistic expectations and perhaps also implausible research and development strategies. Second, we examine the responses by competitors-notably petroleum and electricity-to a new entrant that tries to steal their market. Past technological transformations have seen ugly replies by the incumbent. Will those replies be fatal to the upstart hydrogen? Third, we examine the crucial role of niche markets. New technologies rarely arise de novo in the mass market. Rather, they are improved and tailored in niche markets, from which they gain a foothold for broader diffusion. What are the possible niche markets for hydrogen, and how might those markets be constructed and protected?

The most important policy measures are those that improve the quality of rural Chinas human and physical resources and infrastructure that will provide the skills and abilities to rural residents that seek to integrate themselves into the nations industrializing and commercializing cities. Successful development policy, however, must also recognize that modernization is a long process that will depend on maintaining a healthy agriculture and rural economy.

While a rural development plan has many components, we restrict our attention to three broad issues: (a) the nature of Chinas new economic landscape and measures to enhance it; (b) changes that are needed to improve rural government and its partnerships with the rural population; and (c) reforms and investments that can improve Chinas resources: labor, land, capital, water, forests and the environment of the poor.

Oil Boom: Peril or Opportunity? Sub-Saharan Africa is in the midst of an oil boom as foreign energy companies pour billions of dollars into the region for the exploration and production of petroleum. African governments, in turn, are receiving billions of dollars in revenue from this boom. Oil production on the continent is set to double by the end of the decade and the United States will soon be importing 25 percent of its petroleum from the region. Over $50 billion, the largest investment in African history, will be spent on African oil fields by the end of the decade.

The new African oil boom -- centered on the oil-rich Atlantic waters of the Gulf of Guinea, from Nigeria to Angola -- is a moment of great opportunity and great peril for countries beset by wide-scale poverty. On the one hand, revenues available for poverty reduction are huge; Catholic Relief Services (CRS) conservatively estimates that sub-Saharan African governments will receive over $200 billion in oil revenues over the next decade. On the other hand, the dramatic development failures that have characterized most other oil-dependent countries warn that petrodollars have not helped developing countries to reduce poverty; in many cases, they have actually exacerbated it.

Africa's oil boom comes at a time when foreign aid to Africa from industrialized countries is falling and being replaced by an emphasis from donor nations on trade as a means for African countries to escape poverty. The dominance of oil and mining in Africa's trade relationships, coupled with this decline in aid flows, means that it is especially vital that Africa make the best use of its oil.

CRS is committed to helping to ensure that Africa's oil boom improves the lives of the poor through increased investment in education, health, water, roads, agriculture and other vital necessities. But for this to occur, these revenues must be well managed. Thus, this report addresses two fundamental questions: How can Africa's oil boom contribute to alleviating poverty? What policy changes should be implemented to promote the management and allocation of oil revenues in a way that will benefit ordinary Africans?