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Using firsthand personal accounts and focusing on the experiences of women, Katherine R. Jolluck relates and examines the experiences of thousands of civilians deported to the USSR following the Soviet annexation of eastern Poland in 1939. Upon arrival in remote areas of the Soviet Union, they were deposited in prisons, labor camps, special settlements, and collective farms, and subjected to tremendous hardships and oppressive conditions. In 1942, some 115,000 Polish citizens - only a portion of those initially exiled from their homeland - were evacuated to Iran. There they were asked to complete extensive questionnaires about their experiences. Having read and reviewed hundreds of these documents, Jolluck reveals not only the harsh treatment these women experienced, but also how they maintained their identities as respectable women and patriotic Poles. She finds that for those exiled, the ways in which they strove to recreate home in a foreign and hostile environment became a key means of their survival. Both a harrowing account of brutality and suffering and a clear analysis of civilian experiences in wartime, Exile and Identity expands the history of war far beyond the military battlefield.

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Books
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University of Pittsburgh Press
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Katherine Jolluck
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9780822941859
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In battles, opponents exhibit positive illusions in both believing they can win. With great costs of failure and uncertain success, this represents extreme risk-taking behaviour. Conflict may be expected if one side is cornered, a sacrificial pawn in an overall war strategy, or demanded into action by politicians. However, in many cases even patently weaker forces fight despite nonviolent options. This is "military incompetence", a failure in the assessment of winning probability. Previous explanations (stupidity, psychological deviance and cognitive constraints) have been rejected. Recently, Wrangham [Evol. Hum. Behav. 20 (1999) 3.] proposed that such risk-taking could be adaptive through one of two effects: (1) Performance Enhancement through exaggerated resolve or (2) Opponent Deception by bluffing. Although adaptive if they confer a tendency to win, both processes promote risk-taking behaviour and are therefore potentially responsible for military incompetence. These hypotheses can be distinguished because the Performance Enhancement hypothesis predicts positive illusions in any type of conflict. In contrast, the Opponent Deception hypothesis predicts them in battles but not in surprise attacks, where lack of communication disables any bluff. We conducted a test of these hypotheses using data collected by the US Historical Evaluation Research Organisation, mainly from the Arab-Israeli and Second World Wars. The Opponent Deception hypothesis is supported over the Performance Enhancement hypothesis, but other explanations are not ruled out.

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Evolution and Human Behaviour
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About the speaker: Michelle Li received her Ph.D. in East Asian Studies from Princeton University in May 2000 with a major in pre-modern Japanese literature and minors in pre-modern Chinese and Japanese religions with an emphasis on Buddhism, and pre-modern Japanese history. Her focus in recent years has been on the grotesque and other modes of representation centered on the physical body in ancient and medieval Japanese literature. She is especially interested in the places in texts where religion, history, and literature meet. Her dissertation, Unfinalized Bodies: Reading the Grotesque in Setsuwa Literature, which she is currently revising as a book, develops a theory of the grotesque in short tales from the Konjaku monogatari shu­ and other collections of short tales compiled between the tenth and fourteenth centuries. She is also presently expanding her understanding of the grotesque by exploring how an aesthetic similar to the grotesque in setsuwa functions in Japanese literature from other genres and historic periods. Her next major project after completing this work will be a cross-disciplinary study of ancient and medieval wet nurses who, in addition to having great psychological impact on individuals, were politically and economically significant. In addition to her years at Princeton, her academic background includes a master's degree from Ochanomizu University in Tokyo in modern Japanese literature, particularly from the Meiji and Taisho­ periods. She has also lived and studied in Beijing. The first time, in 1989, was during the student protests and military crackdown by the government in and around Tiananmen Square. It was a significant period of her personal life as well as she met future husband, Jiayi, then. Chinese language and culture, including Chinese tale literature and its relationship to Japanese tale literature, remain side passions of hers.

Oksenberg Conference Room, Third Floor South, Encina Hall

Michelle I Li Speaker
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The celebration in Prague should have been more raucous. The most successful alliance in world history has extended to corners of Europe unimaginable just a few years ago. The military capacity gained for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from expansion is minimal but the political returns will be fantastic. More than any other institution, NATO has helped make Europe democratic, peaceful and whole. What is particularly striking about the new members -- Slovenia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia -- is how many of them emerged from Communist rule with no democratic traditions. The pull of NATO, the desire to join this Western club, created real incentives for democratic consolidation.

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Commentary
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New York Times
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Michael A. McFaul

Following the success of the first conference held in January 2002, the Asia/Pacific Research Center and the US Army War College plan to hold a second conference in January 2003. Its theme is "The Prospects for Peace in South Asia." The participants will address several topics: the role of religion in the politics of the region (primarily in Kashmir, but also in Indian and Pakistani politics), the political role of the Pakistani army, and the new challenges that nuclear weapons and the global war on terrorism have introduced. Possible lessons for the United States in trying to prevent war in South Asia as well as furthering its aims in the war on terrorism will be discussed. The conference speakers will provide an understanding of Kashmir, the role of religion in South Asian politics, local culture and attitudes, US military perspectives on South Asia and the situations and politics in India and Pakistan.

When Shorenstein APARC's 2002 South Asia conference was being planned at Shorenstein APARC, the events of September 11, 2001 had not taken place. To Americans, September 11 is mostly associated with the war against terrorism. However, the impact of 9-11 on longstanding political relations between India and Pakistan is less understood. Without such an understanding, it is difficult to explain why India and Pakistan have twice almost gone to war in the past months due to acts of terrorism linked to September 11.

Kashmir is the main locus of the two countries' dispute. There is much history on why disagreements over Kashmir have created political problems: they began with the handing over of Kashmir to India in 1947 and have continued with rigged elections, poor governance, military occupation, and indigenous and Pakistani-supported militancy, up to the present day.

The risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan arising from the Kashmir dispute remains high. Local elections in both Pakistan and Kashmir over the next few months might prevent war till then, while affecting the dynamics of the future. The United States is keenly concerned with the possibility of war and has been actively engaged in diplomacy, with more senior American officials visiting South Asia in 2002 than at any time in the past.

Indian and Pakistani politics have also taken new turns. In India, the ruling NDA is dominated by the BJP, a party with past links to militant Hinduism. India is constitutionally secular and Muslims have played an important political role, though more as a vote-bank (comprising 14 percent of the population) and less, particularly in recent times, as influential decision-makers. This influence may be set to decline further. Economic uncertainties and the polarization of religious communities in some areas (after sectarian riots) have led the BJP to believe that a return to its aggressive roots might be politically successful. This leads to a need for understanding of how India's future will be affected by its great religions, Hinduism and Islam.

In Pakistan, recent political developments have concentrated power almost entirely in the hands of President Musharraf, a situation that may persist after its upcoming elections. This lack of institutionalization of political processes and power poses new risks to the security environment in the subcontinent.

Bechtel Conference Center

No longer in residence.

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R_Dossani_headshot.jpg PhD

Rafiq Dossani was a senior research scholar at Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) and erstwhile director of the Stanford Center for South Asia. His research interests include South Asian security, government, higher education, technology, and business.  

Dossani’s most recent book is Knowledge Perspectives of New Product Development, co-edited with D. Assimakopoulos and E. Carayannis, published in 2011 by Springer. His earlier books include Does South Asia Exist?, published in 2010 by Shorenstein APARC; India Arriving, published in 2007 by AMACOM Books/American Management Association (reprinted in India in 2008 by McGraw-Hill, and in China in 2009 by Oriental Publishing House); Prospects for Peace in South Asia, co-edited with Henry Rowen, published in 2005 by Stanford University Press; and Telecommunications Reform in India, published in 2002 by Greenwood Press. One book is under preparation: Higher Education in the BRIC Countries, co-authored with Martin Carnoy and others, to be published in 2012.

Dossani currently chairs FOCUS USA, a non-profit organization that supports emergency relief in the developing world. Between 2004 and 2010, he was a trustee of Hidden Villa, a non-profit educational organization in the Bay Area. He also serves on the board of the Industry Studies Association, and is chair of the Industry Studies Association Annual Conference for 2010–12.

Earlier, Dossani worked for the Robert Fleming Investment Banking group, first as CEO of its India operations and later as head of its San Francisco operations. He also previously served as the chairman and CEO of a stockbroking firm on the OTCEI stock exchange in India, as the deputy editor of Business India Weekly, and as a professor of finance at Pennsylvania State University.

Dossani holds a BA in economics from St. Stephen's College, New Delhi, India; an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India; and a PhD in finance from Northwestern University.

Senior Research Scholar
Executive Director, South Asia Initiative
Rafiq Dossani Speaker
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FSI Senior Fellow Emeritus and Director-Emeritus, Shorenstein APARC
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Henry S. Rowen was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a professor of public policy and management emeritus at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business, and a senior fellow emeritus of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). Rowen was an expert on international security, economic development, and high tech industries in the United States and Asia. His most current research focused on the rise of Asia in high technologies.

In 2004 and 2005, Rowen served on the Presidential Commission on the Intelligence of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction. From 2001 to 2004, he served on the Secretary of Defense Policy Advisory Board. Rowen was assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the U.S. Department of Defense from 1989 to 1991. He was also chairman of the National Intelligence Council from 1981 to 1983. Rowen served as president of the RAND Corporation from 1967 to 1972, and was assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of the Budget from 1965 to 1966.

Rowen most recently co-edited Greater China's Quest for Innovation (Shorenstein APARC, 2008). He also co-edited Making IT: The Rise of Asia in High Tech (Stanford University Press, 2006) and The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (2000). Rowen's other books include Prospects for Peace in South Asia (edited with Rafiq Dossani) and Behind East Asian Growth: The Political and Social Foundations of Prosperity (1998). Among his articles are "The Short March: China's Road to Democracy," in National Interest (1996); "Inchon in the Desert: My Rejected Plan," in National Interest (1995); and "The Tide underneath the 'Third Wave,'" in Journal of Democracy (1995).

Born in Boston in 1925, Rowen earned a bachelors degree in industrial management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1949 and a masters in economics from Oxford University in 1955.

Faculty Co-director Emeritus, SPRIE
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Henry S. Rowen Speaker
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Western democracies face increasing constraints on the use of their overwhelming military power. The classical logic, legitimacy and effectiveness of employing force to safeguard national interests apply less and less. State and non-state adversaries threaten important and even vital Western values and interests but are seemingly underterred by - or even inspired by - Western military superiority. At the same time, phenomena such as globalisation, the growing transparency of the battlefield and changing Western value systems subject civilian and military leaders to mounting pressure to wield military power selectively and to use increasing discrimination in choosing means as well as ends.

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Survival
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This volume contains papers presented at the conference of the same name, held in January 2002 at Shorenstein APARC, and co-sponsored by CISAC and the U.S. Army War College. The publication is not available for download, but copies are available from Shorenstein APARC and the U.S. Army War College.

Please contact Ms. Neeley Main at Shorenstein APARC if you would like a copy of the proceedings.

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Working Papers
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Strategic Studies Institute
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Scott D. Sagan
Number
1584871083
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Nearly 200 died in the bombing of Paddy's Irish Bar and the Sari Club in Kuta, Bali, Indonesia, on 12 October -- the worst toll from terror anywhere since 11 September 2001. In the Philippines, terrorists have struck five times in the last month alone. Also in September, suspected terrorist Omar al-Faruq apparently told his CIA interrogators that US $74,000 had been transferred from the Middle East to Southeast Asia to fund a planned attack on U.S. Navy ships docked in Indonesia. Cutting off terrorist financing has been and remains a priority in the American war on terror. What exactly is the nature of the problem of terrorist financing in Southeast Asia? How should the United States, other governments, and international agencies respond to this challenge? What strategies and tactics are most and least likely to succeed? What are the obstacles to that success, and how can these too be addressed? What has been and will be the role of the U.S. Pacific Command in seeking and implementing the answers to these questions? Leif Rosenberger has been the economic adviser to the commander of American forces in the Pacific since 1998. As chair of the Pacific Command's Economics and Security Working Group, he works at the intersection of economic and security issues related to the war on terrorism in the Asia Pacific region. Prior to coming to Camp Smith, where the Command is headquartered, Dr. Rosenberger was a professor of economics at the U.S. Army War College, where he held the General Douglas MacArthur Academic Chair of Research.

Okimoto Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, East Wing

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In "Gender Militarized" Frhstck deals with how masculinity is created, constituted, and negotiated in present-day Japan. She describes how Japanese "militarized masculinity" constantly evolves, is culturally specific, contested, debated and resisted. In this talk, she argues that "militarized masculinity" draws from various kinds of manhood, depends on the subordination of alternative modes of manhood, cuts itself off from other modes of gender and is informed by past and present Japanese and non-Japanese militarisms as well as American militarism on its soil. At the core of Frhstck's analysis are the processes of institutional coercion and the expectations and struggles of enlisted personnel and officers in Japan's armed forces to create a "militarized gender" that is distinct from other types of manhood.

About the speaker:

Sabine Frhstck is an associate professor of modern Japanese cultural studies in the Department of East Asian Languages and Cultural Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Her publications include Colonizing Sex: Sexology and Social Control in Modern Japan (University of California Press, 2003); "Managing the Truth of Sex in Imperial Japan" in the Journal of Asian Studies (2000); and (with Eyal Ben-Ari) "Now We Show It All! Normalization and the Management of Violence in Japan's Armed Forces" in the Journal of Japanese Studies (2002), among other articles and book chapters. She is currently working on a book about military-societal relations in modern and contemporary Japan entitled "Avant-garde: The Army of the Future."

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Assoc. Prof. Sabine Frhstck Professor of Modern Japan Cultural Studies UC Santa Barbara
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