The global health community has been aiming at ensuring health coverage for all. To achieve universal health care coverage, the German Social Health Insurance model is one solution. However, one major disadvantage of Social Health Insurance is the fragmented insurance plans, exemplified by 3,500 insurance plans in Japan’s public universal health insurance system. To improve the financial sustainability of Japan’s public universal health insurance, policy options include consolidating fragmented plans as already implemented in Germany and South Korea.

This presentation has two major goals. One is to evaluate the optimal health insurance size in consolidating 3,500 insurance plans in Japan through a simulation analysis using the best available micro data in Japan. The other goal is to discuss the global policy implications based on the experiences of Japan's public universal health insurance.

Dr. Byung-Kwang Yoo is an associate professor in health policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences at the UC Davis School of Medicine. Yoo’s unique career includes clinical medicine (MD) in Japan and research experience as a health services researcher/health economist in the United States. He obtained an MS in health policy and management from Harvard University, and a PhD in health policy and management (concentration on health economics) from Johns Hopkins University. Yoo used to work as a research associate at the Center for Health Policy at Stanford University, as a health economist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and as an assistant professor in the Division of Health Policy at the University of Rochester School of Medicine in New York State. He has published his work in leading journals such as Lancet, Health Economics, Health Services Research, the American Journal of Public Health, and the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

PESD visiting scholar Pär Holmberg from the Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm led this Energy Working Group talk.

Holmberg discussed (1) the multi-unit auction used in wholesale electricity markets where producers sell their electricity to retailers and large consumers, (2) a theoretical model of producers' strategic bidding behavior and (3) how bids are influenced by contracts and the market design.

The presentation was based on his paper "The Supply Function Equilibrium and its Policy Implications for Wholesale Electricity Markets", which was co-authored with David Newbery (University of Cambridge, UK).

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Pär Holmberg is an Associate Professor in Economics and has a PhD in Electric Power Engineering. He is working at the Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm, and is an associate of the Electricity Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge. Pär's research focuses on wholesale electricity markets, especially strategic bidding behavior in electricity auctions.

Japan Colloquium Series Inaugural Event  
 

Japan is facing a major set of challenges in the aftermath of its triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis. It had just begun recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis when the disasters hit. Richard Katz will discuss the economic and political prospects for Japan after this catastrophe in a broader global context. He will also be presenting lessons from Japan for U.S. policymakers fighting the current slump. 
 

Richard Katz is editor of the Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan, as well as the semi-weekly TOE Alert e-mail service on Japan. He is also a special correspondent at Weekly Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business weekly. Katz is the author of two books on Japan. The first is Japan: The System That Soured--The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle (M.E. Sharpe,1998); it was published in a Japanese edition as Kusariyuku Nihon To Iu System (Toyo Keizai, 1999). His second book, entitled Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to Economic Revival (M.E. Sharpe, 2002), was published in English, and in Japanese as Fushicho no Nikon Keizai (Toyo Keizai). Katz has taught about Japan as an adjunct professor in economics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook and at the New York University Stern School of Business. He regularly writes op-eds for newspapers such as the Asian Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, as well as essays for a variety of journals, including the article “The Japan Fallacy?” for the March-April 2009 issue of Foreign Affairs. He has testified about in Japan in Congress on several occasions. Katz received his MA in economics from New York University in 1996.

Ronald I. McKinnon is an applied economist whose primary interests are international economics and economic development-with strong secondary interests in transitional economies and fiscal federalism. Understanding financial institutions in general, and monetary institutions in particular, is central to his teaching and research. His interests range from the proper regulation of banks and financial markets in poorer countries to the historical evolution of global and regional monetary systems. His books, numerous articles in professional journals, and op-eds in the financial press such as The Economist, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal reflect this range of interests.

Event Summary

Professor McKinnon first outlines the two major assumptions behind his paper (available on this page). First, that from December 2008 to August 2011, an inflow of "hot money" to emerging economies resulted from low U.S., European, and Japanese interest rates. Since then, the trend has reversed in the wake of the European banking crisis and bank lending has fallen. Second, the dollar remains the widespread central bank reserve currency despite instability in the U.S. system. 

McKinnon voices concern about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's zero interest rate policy, calling it an overreaction to the crisis and a "lose-lose" policy as it deters investment in the U.S. while simultaneously spurring destabilizing hot money flows to surrounding emerging markets. These countries are in turn forced to suppress interest rates to mitigate the inflows, and to build up dollar reserves to keep exchange rates in check. The zero interest rate policy also stimulates carry trades in commodities by speculators.

The belief that under a zero interest rate regime, inflation will stimulate the economy by bringing real interest rates to negative levels, is misplaced in McKinnon's view. He argues that this simply adds uncertainty and interferes with efficient bank intermediation, as banks hold high excess reserves and tighten lending, causing a procyclical contraction as has been seen in the United States and Europe. He contrasts this approach with China, which stabilized its economy following the “dot-com” bust by expanding rather than contracting bank credit. He criticizes U.S. pressure on China to appreciate or float its currency, asserting that these strategies would fail to reduce China's trade surplus.

McKinnon suggests that international reforms should target interest rates instead of exchange rates.  He recommends coordination between central banks of the major industrialized countries, especially the United States, European countries, and Japan - to collectively raise interest rates to approximately 2%. This would improve overall bank intermediation, and would benefit both central and peripheral countries in Europe.

A question and answer session following the talked addressed topics including: the likelihood of a coordinated effort between central banks; the potential effects of Kucinich's monetary reform proposal; the potential negative effects on real growth from carry trades, and whether this is a cause for concern; and the effects of bank borrowing trends in Europe on the European monetary system.