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Silicon Valley BizInk spoke to APARC Senior Research Scholar %people1% about his current hot-button work on the offshoring of business practices (BPO) to India.

U.S. companies sent jobs to India to save money, but stayed because of the quality of the work. Rafiq Dossani is a senior research scholar at the Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Dossani, along with Martin Kenney, a professor in the human and community development department at the University of California, Davis, published a 52-page research report entitled "Went for Cost, Stayed for Quality: Moving the Back Office to India." The paper is available for download below. The research is a comprehensive look at the driving forces behind the migration of "business process" work to India. These BP jobs include much of the so-called back-office tasks -- human resources, accounting and customer service -- that are being outsourced to India. General Electric Co., for example, employs 9,000 BP workers in India, saving the company $340 million per year. It's little wonder why GE anticipates employing 20,000 workers in India by next year. Biz Ink editor Dennis Taylor spoke with Dossani from his Stanford University office about the dynamics of the offshoring trend. Q: What are the key business needs being outsourced to India today? A: There are really two practices: [information technology] and business process outsourcing. BP is expected to overtake IT by next year. IT outsourcing has been growing in India by about 15 percent per year. BP is growing at 100 percent a year. There are different dynamics involved. Q: On the IT side, what work is being done in India? A: There are four distinct processes to IT development -- project determination, architecture, system design and [programming]. About 25 percent of that is programming, quality assurance and Web services. India has about 15 percent of that. It's a small percentage, but it's growing fast. Q: Why does that type of technology flourish in India? Is it the education focus? A: The education policy as such hasn't made much of a difference. India doesn't have a lot of technically educated people, relative to its population. There are 0.3 scientists and technicians per 1,000 people, which ranks India 42 out of 62 nations surveyed by the World Bank in 1998 in the per-capita number of scientists and technicians. What it does have is a billion people. What has helped India is everyone speaks English. Q: What was the most surprising finding coming out of your research? A: By far, India's biggest skill is business management. It is very hard to manage these projects remotely. Yet American companies are lifting a key component of a process and shipping it off to India and it is being managed well. You need to understand that 96 percent of these programming projects are complex coding for banks, insurance companies and a host of manufacturing companies. This is complex software being created on demand and most of it -- because it's banks and manufacturing [not tech companies] -- is coming from mainstream America, not Silicon Valley. Q: How much of the work being outsourced to India comes from the United States? A: About 70 percent. How is the phenomenon of "offshoring" affected life in tech hubs such as Bangalore? Q: In a sense IT has not had an impact on these places. It's like an ivory tower. In March 2003, there were 230,000 employed in the [IT] industry. In Bangalore that may represent one-third of the population, but 30,000 out of a population of 5 million creates a buzz, but that's about it. A: But BP outsourcing is having a completely different impact. There are many recent graduates who have never been able to get a job so easily. Now they have well-paid jobs with multinational firms because they speak English and have good interactive skills. With more people employed, it's beginning to hit mainstream India and move out of Bangalore and to smaller cities. That in turn affects other sectors, such as construction management skills. Shoddy buildings in India are becoming a thing of the past. Q: Is offshoring causing any Indian engineers here in the valley to consider returning to India? A: What happened is India liberalized in 1991 -- allowing foreign firms to do business. But it took them five or six years to adjust, so in 1996 the first foreign company was established and now it's quite common. But IT outsourcing still only comprises 4 percent of the business, but it is growing so there will be an impact to the valley. Q: There are roughly 30,000 Indian engineers in the valley, and I'd estimate no more than 300 have gone back. A: Will the rapid growth in offshoring continue as long as there is a substantial wage disparity between the two countries? Q: Oh, yes. The wage disparity is too much. Someone working in a BP tech support call center will make $1.50 [U.S.] an hour, including benefits. Over here, even if you paid $15 an hour, you wouldn't get happy workers. There it is viewed as a good career. The supply of labor is so huge for call-center work, it will take many years before the difference is cut to even half as much, probably 10 to 15 years. With IT outsourcing, in India you would be paying $3.50 an hour for a Java programmer versus $25 an hour here, so the eight-times differential still exists. Q: Is the practice paying off for valley companies? Any early report cards? A: Oh yeah, big time, especially on the BP side. You save 80 percent in costs. On the IT side it is beginning to pay off, now that it's a matter of in-house offshoring to your own subsidiary. Product software doesn't source out well because of the [feared loss of] intellectual property associated with it. Q: Is there a downside to offshoring work to India? A: A big concern for companies is the loss of knowledge. The last time that happened was in consumer electronics and the U.S. lost the lead. And business continuity is a big concern. You need to have payroll done at a certain time of the month, but if there is a power outage, which is more likely to happen in India than here, what are you going to do? And of course there is a very real concern over the loss of intellectual property.

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This seminar is part of SPRIE's Fall 2003 series on "High-Tech Regions and the Globalization of Value Chains."

Eric Benhamou is the chairman of the board of directors of 3Com Corporation, of Palm Inc. and of PalmSource, Inc. He served as chief executive officer of 3Com Corporation from September 1990 until December 31, 2000. In 1981, Benhamou co-founded Bridge Communications, an early networking pioneer, and was vice president of engineering until its merger with 3Com in 1987. Before joining Bridge Communications, he worked at Zilog, Inc. as project manager, software engineering manager and design engineer.

Benhamou holds honorary doctoral degrees from Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Widener University, Western Governors University, and the University of South Carolina. He has a master of science degree in electrical engineering from Stanford University and a Diplome d'Ingenieur from Ecole Nationale Superieure d'Arts et Metiers, Paris.

Benhamou currently serves as chairman of the board of Cypress Semiconductor and as a member of the board of Legato. He serves on the board of directors of privately held companies, Intransa and Atrica. He serves on the board of the New America Foundation, a Washington DC-based think tank. Benhamou serves on the executive committee of TechNet and of the Computer Science and Technology Board (CSTB). In addition, Benhamou is a champion of Smart Valley II, an initiative for deployment of state-of-the art information technology in Silicon Valleys health care, transportation, and education to enhance the quality of life for community members.

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Eric Benhamou Chairman, Board of Directors 3Com Corporation, Palm, Inc., and PalmSource, Inc.
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This seminar is part of SPRIE's Fall 2003 series on "High-Tech Regions and the Globalization of Value Chains."

George M. Scalise is president of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), where he directs a staff focused on International Trade & Government Affairs, Workforce, Technology, Environmental-Safety & Health, and Communications. Scalise came to the SIA from Apple Computer, where he served as executive vice president of operations. Previously, he held executive management positions at National Semiconductor, Maxtor Corporation, Advanced Micro Devices, Fairchild Semiconductor and Motorola Semiconductor.

A graduate of Purdue University with a B.S. in mechanical engineering, Scalise was a founding member of the Semiconductor Research Corporation, an industry-funded organization that provides resources for pre-competitive semiconductor research at American universities. Scalise currently serves on President George W. Bush's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology as well as numerous boards, including the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco where he is Chairman of the Board of Directors, Cadence Design Systems, and iSuppli Corporation.

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George M. Scalise President Semiconductor Industry Association
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This seminar is part of SPRIE's Fall 2003 series on "High-Tech Regions and the Globalization of Value Chains."

Over the past two decades, the physical products that we consume have increasingly been manufactured offshore. More recently, some business and consumer services have started moving overseas. India is an important destination for such work, as it has low labor costs, good remote process management skills, and adequate infrastructure. The talk will report on a recent visit to India in which about fifty business process outsourcing firms were interviewed. The work is part of a research project funded by the Sloan Foundation on understanding the impact of the globalization of business processes on the U.S. economy.

Martin Kenney is a professor in the Department of Human and Community Development at the University of California, Davis and a senior project director at the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy at the University of California, Berkeley. His research includes the role and history of the venture capital industry and the development of Silicon Valley. Kenney's recent books include Understanding Silicon Valley: Anatomy of an Entrepreneurial Region (2000) and Locating Global Advantage (forthcoming). He has consulted for various governments, companies, the United Nations, and the World Bank. He has been a visiting professor at Cambridge University, Copenhagen Business School, Hitotsubashi University, Kobe University, Osaka City University, and the University of Tokyo. He holds a B.A. and M.A. from San Diego State University and a Ph.D. from Cornell University.

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No longer in residence.

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R_Dossani_headshot.jpg PhD

Rafiq Dossani was a senior research scholar at Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) and erstwhile director of the Stanford Center for South Asia. His research interests include South Asian security, government, higher education, technology, and business.  

Dossani’s most recent book is Knowledge Perspectives of New Product Development, co-edited with D. Assimakopoulos and E. Carayannis, published in 2011 by Springer. His earlier books include Does South Asia Exist?, published in 2010 by Shorenstein APARC; India Arriving, published in 2007 by AMACOM Books/American Management Association (reprinted in India in 2008 by McGraw-Hill, and in China in 2009 by Oriental Publishing House); Prospects for Peace in South Asia, co-edited with Henry Rowen, published in 2005 by Stanford University Press; and Telecommunications Reform in India, published in 2002 by Greenwood Press. One book is under preparation: Higher Education in the BRIC Countries, co-authored with Martin Carnoy and others, to be published in 2012.

Dossani currently chairs FOCUS USA, a non-profit organization that supports emergency relief in the developing world. Between 2004 and 2010, he was a trustee of Hidden Villa, a non-profit educational organization in the Bay Area. He also serves on the board of the Industry Studies Association, and is chair of the Industry Studies Association Annual Conference for 2010–12.

Earlier, Dossani worked for the Robert Fleming Investment Banking group, first as CEO of its India operations and later as head of its San Francisco operations. He also previously served as the chairman and CEO of a stockbroking firm on the OTCEI stock exchange in India, as the deputy editor of Business India Weekly, and as a professor of finance at Pennsylvania State University.

Dossani holds a BA in economics from St. Stephen's College, New Delhi, India; an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, India; and a PhD in finance from Northwestern University.

Senior Research Scholar
Executive Director, South Asia Initiative
Rafiq Dossani
Martin Kenney Professor University of California, Davis
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This seminar is part of Shorenstein APARC's Korea Luncheon Seminar Series, sponsored by the Korean Studies Program. The luncheon is free and open to the public, but RSVPs are required. Please RSVP to Okky Choi by 12 noon on Wednesday, October 8 if you wish to attend and have lunch reserved for you. Chiho Sawada received his Ph.D. from Harvard in East Asian Languages and Civilizations, earned his B.A. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego, and did graduate research at Seoul National University and University of Tokyo.

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Chiho Sawada Korean Studies Research Fellow APARC
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8:30 AM, Bechtel Conference Center, First Floor, Encina Hall

WELCOME

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

KEYNOTE SPEECH: FROM SILICON VALLEY TO SHANGHAI: The Information Age Opens To Asia

James Morgan, CEO, Applied Materials, Inc.

CRISIS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

INDIA AS A DESTINATION FOR GLOBAL BUSINESS PROCESS OUTSOURCING: Key Factors and Trends

Rafiq Dossani, Senior Research Scholar, Shorenstein APARC

SOUTHEAST ASIA: A Region at Risk

Donald Emmerson, Senior Fellow, IIS

JAPAN'S PROLONGED ECONOMIC SLUMP: Explanations and Implications

Daniel Okimoto, Senior Fellow, IIS

Michael Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein APARC

ASIA'S EMERGING HOTBEDS FOR INNOVATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Henry Rowen, Senior Fellow, IIS

William F. Miller, Senior Fellow Emeritus, IIS

Marguerite Gong Hancock, Associate Director, Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation & Entrepreneurship

ABOUT THE ASIA/PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER

Russell Hancock, Director of Programs, Shorenstein APARC

PLENARY SESSION

CHINA AFTER THE 16TH PARTY CONGRESS

Andrew Walder, Director, Shorenstein APARC

Lawrence Lau, Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economic Development

Jean Oi, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics

Ramon Myers, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

CLOSING REMARKS

Gi-Wook Shin, Acting Director, Shorenstein APARC

Bechtel Conference Center

James Morgan CEO Keynote Speaker Applied Materials
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Executive Summary

 

The purpose of this paper is to present a general framework for electricity market design in Latin American Countries (LACs) that addresses the current problems facing electricity supply industries (ESIs) in this region. The major issue addressed is what market rules, market structures, and legal and regulatory institutions are necessary to establish a competitive wholesale market that provides the maximum possible benefits to consumers consistent with the long-term financial viability of the ESI.

The paper first presents a theoretical foundation for analyzing the electricity market design problem. A generic principal-agent model is presented and its applicability to the electricity market design problem explained. It is then applied to illustrate the incentives for firm behavior under regulation versus market environments. The impact of government versus private ownership on firm behavior in both market and regulated environments is also addressed using this model. This discussion is used to guide our choices for the important lessons for electricity market design in developed countries and LACs.  Using the experiences from ESI reform in developed countries, the paper presents five essential features of a successful wholesale electricity market. The first is the need for a sufficient number of independent suppliers for a competitive market to be possible. Merely declaring the market open to competition will not result in new entry unless no single supplier is able to dominate the market. Second is a forward market for electricity where privately-owned firms are able to sell long-term commitments to supply lectricity. This report argues that the conventional wisdom of establishing a competitive spot market first leading to a competitive forward market is an extremely expensive process in developed countries and is prohibitively expensive in developing countries. Third is the need for the active involvement of as many consumers of electricity as is economically feasible in the operation of the wholesale market.  This involvement should occur both in the long-term and short-term market. In the short-term market, there must be a number of buyers willing to alter their consumption of electricity in response to short-term price signals. Fourth is the importance of a transmission network to facilitate commerce, meaning that the transmission network must have sufficient capacity so that all suppliers face significant competition. This implies a dramatically different approach to determining the quantity and magnitude of transmission network expansions in a market regime.  The final lesson is the need to establish a credible regulatory mechanism as early as possible in the restructuring process. An important lesson from developed countries around the world is that the initial market design will have flaws. This implies the need for ongoing market monitoring to correct these flaws before they develop into disasters.

The paper then takes on the issue of the specific challenges to LAC restructuring. Rather than focus on the details of specific markets, the paper instead identifies a number of problems common to LACs and provides recommended solutions to each of these problems. A major theme of this section is a warning that short-term solutions to market design flaws can have longterm market efficiency costs. The paper identifies seven major challenges to Latin American ESI restructuring. The first is related to the problem of introducing wholesale markets in systems dominated by hydroelectric capacity. This section also deals with the related issue of using cheap hydroelectric power as a way to keep electricity prices low and the risk of electricity shortages high. The second issue is concerned with the difficulties of establishing an active forward market for electricity in LACs. The third relates to the LAC-specific challenges associated with establishing an independent and regulatory body. The fourth addresses the advisability of cost-based versus bid-based dispatch of generation units in LAC wholesale markets. The fifth is how to regulate the default provider retail electricity price in LACs. Sixth concerns the advisability of capacity payments mechanism for ensuring energy adequacy in markets where demand is expected to grow rapidly. The final issue is the role for government versus private ownership in LACs.

The report then discusses specific market design challenges in five LACs. These countries are Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Honduras, and Mexico. A number of these challenges are specific examples of the general challenges discussed earlier in the paper, whereas others are unique to the geography, natural resource base or legal environment in the country.

The report closes with a proposed market design that should serve as a baseline market design for all LACs. Deviations from this basic design could be substantial depending on initial conditions in the industry and the country, but the ideal behind proposing this design is to have a useful starting point for all LAC restructuring processes.

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Stanford University, Department of Economics
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Frank Wolak
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11:45 am luncheon 12:00 pm program begins Lunch provided only to those who make a reservation with Ms. Okky Choi by 12:00 pm on Wednesday, May 28. You can contact her via email at okkychoi@stanford.edu or via phone at 650-724-8271.

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Seung-woo Chang Former Minister of Planning and Budget Speaker Republic of Korea
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In recent years, despite the Chinese economy's rapid growth -- the highest in the world -- and China's progress in improving its financial system, serious risks and problems in the Chinese stock market remain. After examining such issues as high speculation and high P/E ratios in the Chinese stock market, Ms. Wang, in her work with Dr. Lawrence Lau (Shorenstein APARC), argues that the Chinese government should formulate certain tax policies. These proposed policies would not only increase the corporate after-tax profits but they would also encourage the substitution of equity for debt. Currently such a strategy would lower the P/E ratios without lowering the stock prices, attract new long-term investors, and strengthen the stability of the stock market. It will not significantly reduce fiscal revenue but likely increase the tax revenue in the long run. Please join us for a lively discussion of the issues and policies that Ms. Wang proposes in her presentation.

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Guijian Wang Ministry of Finance Speaker PRC
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David G. Victor
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In an article appearing in The Financial Times, David Victor and C. Ford Runge argue that the pending WTO case over genetically modified foods will do the U.S. more harm than good.

America's farm lobbyists have long been pressing their government to launch a formal trade dispute against the European Union's ban on genetically modified crops. This week they got their way, as the US and more than a dozen allies started proceedings within the World Trade Organisation.

For US farmers - the world's top planters of GM crops - the case is a welcome chance to crack open a lucrative market. But the case may ultimately do their country more harm than good.

Now is a particularly bad time to embark on a dispute that will inflame anti-Americanism in Europe. In the broader, already deteriorating relationship with continental Europe, the US has much more important issues at stake, notably reviving the Doha round on trade and mending diplomatic relationships strained by the Iraq war. Moreover, a close look at the options reveals that each of the plausible outcomes from a dispute would leave the US worse off than before.

First, the US could pay the political costs of launching an inflammatory dispute and then lose. Most press accounts compare this case with one of the first disputes ever handled by the WTO: the EU's ban on beef that had been produced using hormones. The EU lost because its ban had no basis in science and in "comparable" areas of food policy it had adopted much less strict rules - a telltale sign that the ban was a protectionist gambit.

On the surface, the cases appear similar. Although the science on the health risks of GM food is contested, essentially all the credible evidence shows that these foods are safe, which would seem to indict the EU ban. But in critical ways the cases differ. Across the board, the EU is tightening food safety regulations in ways that seem irrational by standard cost/benefit tests but, crucially, are broadly non-discriminatory and consistent - the key tests for whether a trade ban is legitimate. Moreover, the GM ban is a temporary measure - unlike the permanent ban on beef hormones - and trade rules allow more flexibility for countries that implement temporary measures when they can claim the science is uncertain.

Second, the EU could change its rules in the middle of the dispute. For several years, EU bureaucrats have been designing a new set of standards that would "reopen" Europe's markets to GM foods if traders complied with onerous tracing and labelling requirements. This shift would make it harder for the US to win because trade laws are tolerant of labels that allow consumers to make the final choice. While the US might respond by dropping the suit, it would be more likely to redirect the dispute against the tracing and labelling rules. In the past, hotly contested trade disputes have usually taken on a myopic life of their own. Each side digs in and the political damage spreads.

Third is the most likely (and worst) outcome: the US could win. The victory would be Pyrrhic because the issues are fundamentally ones of morality and technology - they must be settled in the courts of consumer opinion. On this score, the beef hormones case is instructive. Even today, hormone-treated beef is no more able to find European consumers than it was before the US won its case; and the years of legal wrangling have led to counter-sanctions that have harmed a wide variety of unrelated products and industries. The antagonism over GM foods appears to be unfolding in much the same way.

A better strategy would have been to stay the course that US policy has followed ever since the controversy over GM crops broke out in the late 1990s. Time is on America's side because the technology is already proving itself in the marketplace and European opponents will find themselves increasingly isolated.

But now that Washington has pulled the trigger, what can be done? The greatest danger is that both sides of the Atlantic slide into a tit-for-tat retaliation. But a trade war will cause untold harm to an alliance already in stress and make it harder to rejuvenate the soggy world economy. Cooler heads must prevail.

In Europe, the critical need is to reform the moratorium on GM foods. Frustration over its inability to get the import ban lifted is what pushed Washington to this desperate act. In the US, serious movement in Europe must be seized as pretence to rescind the WTO case before the antagonisms of hearings, judgment, appeal and retaliation unfold.

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