Few will dispute that the essence of our times can be conveyed by two simple words: " Global" and "Change". Economies, technologies, information, media, culture, and indeed security issues have been vastly internationalized and transformed in the incredibly short period of the half century following World War II . The world is being consumed by the forces of change driven by the engines of technology and geoeconomics. Economic change and technological development, like wars or sports, are usually not beneficial to all. Progress only benefits those groups of nations that are able to take advantage of newer methods of science, just as they damage those that are less prepared technologically, culturally, and politically to respond to change. Only societies free of rigid doctrinal orthodoxy and possessing attributes such as the freedoms to inquire, dispute, and experiment; a belief in the possibilities of improvement; a concern for the practical rather than the abstract; and rationalism that defies mandarin codes, religious dogmas, and traditional folklore, are likely to prosper in the new millennium. In any case, we must look with caution into the future. History teaches us that the only thing we can be certain of is that we will be surprised; our vision may well turn out to be distorted and myopic, our best guesses will often be wrong and we are likely to be disappointed in our expectations. We can only be certain of continuing conflict on a technology-driven planet with concurrent dwindling resources and increasing population.

Part of the California-Asia Connection Seminar series. California, and the Bay Area in particular, is exercising a defining influence on the global economy. This is based on the state's dominance in key technology sectors, and the capacity for innovation. Dr. Randolph will present research benchmarking the Bay Area economy against comparable regions nationwide, across 35 indicators of performance, and argue that California's global leadership in this domain is sustainable only so long as the host environment nurtures innovation and entrepreneurship. California's trade "policy" is most appropriately understood, therefore, as the rules and regulations governing the state's labor and human capital issues, and the provision of critical infrastructure. R. Sean Randolph was appointed president of the Bay Area Economic Forum on June 1, 1998. The Bay Area Economic Forum, a nonprofit, public-private partnership of business, government, academic, labor, and community leaders works to foster a dynamic and competitive economic environment and to enhance the overall quality of life in the nine-county San Francisco Bay region. Dr. Randolph most recently served as director of international trade for the State of California. As senior manager of the California Trade and Commerce Agency's Office of Export Development, he directed international business development programs that stimulate exports and introduce California companies to key overseas markets. Before joining the State of California, Dr. Randolph served as Managing Director of the RSR Pacific Group, an international business consulting firm specializing in Asia and Latin America. From 1988Ð92 he was International Director General of the Pacific Basin Economic Council, a fifteen-nation international business organization composed of leading U.S., Asian, and Latin American corporations. His professional career also includes extensive experience in the U.S. Government on the U.S. Congress staff (1976Ð80), and the White House staff (1980Ð81). He subsequently served in the U.S. State Department on the Policy Planning Staff as Special Adviser for Policy in the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs and as Deputy/Ambassador-at-Large for Pacific Basin affairs (1981Ð85). From 1985Ð88 he served in the U.S. Department of Energy as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs. A graduate (Magna Cum Laude) of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, Dr. Randolph holds a J.D. from the Georgetown University Law Center, a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and studied at the London School of Economics. He is a member of the District of Columbia Bar Association, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the U.S. National Committee for Pacific Economic Cooperation, and currently serves on the Board of Directors of the U.C. Berkeley Center for APEC, the Southwest Center of Environmental Research and Policy, and the Headlands Institute. Dr. Randolph writes and speaks frequently on economic development and international business and economic issues.

When the Asian Crisis hit in 1997, California looked particularly vulnerable. Foreign markets had been of growing importance to the state's economy over the previous decade, and California's trade was heavily weighted toward Asia. The US trade deficit had been rising steadily and the rapid depreciation of Asian currencies threatened to dampen demand for the state's goods, while at the same time flooding it with imports. Yet the State's economy weathered this storm quite well. Why? Kroll and Bardhan will present research on California's linkages with the global economy which help explain this outcome. Additionally, Kroll and Bardhan will present research showing how California is becoming integrated with the global economy in other, more complex ways. California-based firms have expanded their sales and production activities throughout the world, and production that occurs within the state has come be increasingly linked to Asia for imports of intermediate inputs. Cheaper inputs and finished goods in turn have moved the economy to higher value-added sectors and related services. Kroll and Bardhan will discuss the some consequences of these linkages and analyze their effects on the employment structure of the state. Dr. Cynthia Kroll is Regional Economist at the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, at the University of California at Berkeley. She holds M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from Berkeley's Department of City and Regional Planning, and serves as an advisor to the California Office of Economic Research and the Association of Bay Area Governments Ashok Bardhan is a research associate at the Fisher Center, and served formerly as an officer with the Reserve Bank of India.

Arjun Appadurai, Samuel N. Harper Professor, The University of Chicago, Departments of Anthropology, and South Asian Languages and Civilizations and Director of the Globalization Project.

Arjun Appadurai, Samuel N. Harper Professor, The University of Chicago, Departments of Anthropology, and South Asian Languages and Civilizations and Director of the Globalization Project.

The bundling of race and ethnicity with nation is common in state ideology and popular perceptions in East Asia. These beliefs in racial homogeneity deeply held by the societies that make up this world region are now being challenged by the international migration of workers, most of whom are themselves from Asia or ethnic Asian origins. The advent of multicultural societies has already begun and, given both the globalization of migration and demographic trends in the higher income economies, it will increasingly become an issue for public policy in the coming decades. While central governments tend to continue to reify the race-nation ideology, local governments and citizen groups have in many instances become more positive in their responses to the issues of cultural diversity and social justice for foreign workers working and living in their communities. Mike Douglass is professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Hawaii. He has lived in East and Southeast Asia for more than twelve years, where he has carried out research and practice in urban policy and planning. His current research interests and projects include globalization and urban policy in the Asia Pacific region; urban poverty, environment, and social capital; foreign workers and households in Japan; and rural-urban linkages in national development. His recent books are Culture and the City in East Asia, edited with Won Bae Kim (Oxford, 1997); Cities for Citizens: Planning and the Rise of Civil Society in a Global Age, edited with John Friedmann (John Wiley, 1998); and Coming to Japan: Foreign Workers and Households in an Age of Global Migration, edited with Glenda Roberts (Routledge, 2000).

The role of location is gaining attention as a contributor to firm and industry competitiveness. A number of researchers have linked innovation and productivity to the geographic clustering of firms. While a variety of industry clusters in the United States and abroad have been studied, seldom have they been considered within the context of global competition. Global competition complicates the location decision. Drawing on extensive evidence from the hard disk drive industry, including information on the complete population of firms since the industry's inception, this presentation offers a framework for understanding the dynamics of industry location in international competition. David McKendrick is Research Director of the Information Storage Industry Center at the University of California, San Diego. His current research focuses on the role of location in competitive advantage, the effects of geographic dispersion on innovation and learning in multinational corporations, and the evolution of international competition. Prior to joining UCSD, he taught in the business schools at the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Texas at Dallas. He received his Ph.D. in business from the University of California, Berkeley.

Foreign-born engineers are a significant and fast growing presence in Silicon Valley. This talk will examine how first generation Chinese and Indian immigrants--who represent one-third of the engineering workforce in the region--have integrated into the local economy while simultaneously building long-distance linkages to regions in Asia. AnnaLee Saxenian is a Professor of City and Regional Planning at the University of California at Berkeley and an internationally recognized expert on regional economic development and the information technology sector. Her current research examines the contributions of skilled immigrants to Silicon Valley and their growing ties to regions in Asia. Her recent publications include Silicon Valley's New Immigrant Entrepreneurs and Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128. She has written extensively about innovation and regional development, urbanization, and the organization of labor markets in the San Francisco Bay Area. Saxenian is the Gordon Cain Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research for the 1999-2000 academic year. She holds a Doctorate in Political Science from MIT, a Master's degree in Regional Planning from the University of California at Berkeley, and a BA in Economics from Williams College in Massachusetts.

In many markets, organizations compete with rivals from all over the world, transcending national boundaries. We offer a theory to explain patterns of global competition, proposing that global competition "coevolves" in an ecology of learning organizations. Our theory points to certain conditions under which such evolution intensifies competition, but also to patterns of adverse selection within and among organizations. We test our theory in a study of organizational failure rates among all computer hard disk drive manufacturers that have ever existed, and find that our theory is able to explain patterns of competition in that industry over its history. William P. Barnett is an Associate Professor of Strategic Management and Organizational Behavior at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. He studies competitive systems within and among organizations, focusing especially on how competitiveness evolves as organizations grow and change. This research includes empirical studies of the evolution of organizational performance, the organizational and career determinants of entrepreneurship, the effects of technological and regulatory changes on competition among organizations, and how competitiveness evolves over time and across markets. His work reports on a range of firms and industries, including organizations in telecommunications, semiconductor manufacturing, beer brewing, newspaper publishing, and banking. Most recently he is studying the evolution of the computer industry. In 1988 he received his Ph.D. in Business Adminstration from the University of California, Berkeley.