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Stanford health law experts Michelle Mello and David Studdert discuss the ongoing pandemic, proof of vaccination “passports” at the state and federal levels, and a July 19 ruling that Indiana University could require that its students be vaccinated.
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David Studdert
Michelle Mello
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Noa Ronkin
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Around the world, societies are aging at a rapid pace. The demographic transition and the challenges surrounding elderly care are defining issues of our time. Aging populations strain public finances and existing models of social support, affect economic growth, and change disease patterns and prevalence. Many countries, therefore, contemplate policy changes to their retirement, pensions, and health care systems. China, which faces a fast-growing trend of aging cohorts, is no exception.

To alleviate the pressure of elderly care on public finances, the Chinese government has been considering raising retirement ages and corresponding changes in social health insurance and pension policy. A new study now helps evaluate such retirement reforms and provides evidence to inform policy in China and elsewhere by probing the effects of retirement on health care utilization.


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The study’s co-authors, including Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, leverage administrative data from medical claims for over 80,000 insured adults in a megacity in eastern China to explore the effect of retirement on outpatient and inpatient care utilization. In this case, urban employee insurance beneficiaries receive a reduced patient cost-sharing rate upon retirement. By focusing on a relatively well-insured population with comprehensive administrative data on insurance plan design and overall resource use at retirement, the study provides new evidence about mechanisms such as the reduced out-of-pocket price of health care, the opportunity cost of time, and the interaction of these demand-side factors with supply-side incentives. Eggleston and her colleagues report on their findings in the journal Health Economics.

Our study reveals that increased utilization at retirement primarily comes in the form of outpatient services.

In this relatively well-insured population, annual health care utilization significantly increases primarily because of more intensive use of outpatient care at retirement. This increase in outpatient care stems from a decline in the patient cost-sharing rate, the reduced time constraints upon retirement, and the interaction of these factors with supply-side incentives such as prescribing antibiotics. There is no evidence of change in inpatient care at retirement.

The economics of medical expenditure growth and its interaction with population aging is of considerable policy importance for countries in all income groups. “Our findings may provide useful evidence as one consideration for policymakers in other cities in China and elsewhere looking to increase insurance benefits and control medical spending for burgeoning elderly populations.

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A New Validated Tool Helps Predict Lifetime Health Outcomes for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations

A research team including APARC's Karen Eggleston developed a new simulation model that supports the economic evaluation of policy guidelines and clinical treatment pathways to tackle diabetes and prediabetes among Chinese and East Asian populations, for whom existing models may not be applicable.
A New Validated Tool Helps Predict Lifetime Health Outcomes for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations
A parent holds a child waiting to be given an infusion at an area hospital in China.
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In China, Better Financial Coverage Increases Health Care Access and Utilization

Research evidence from China’s Tongxiang county by Karen Eggleston and colleagues indicates that enhanced financial coverage for catastrophic medical expenditures increased health care access and expenditures among resident insurance beneficiaries while decreasing out-of-pocket spending as a portion of total spending.
In China, Better Financial Coverage Increases Health Care Access and Utilization
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Why Insurance Alone May Not Improve Women's Access To Healthcare

A new study of the Rajasthan government's Bhamashah health insurance program for poor households has found that just providing health insurance cover doesn't reduce gender inequality in access to even subsidized health care.
Why Insurance Alone May Not Improve Women's Access To Healthcare
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The study’s co-authors, including Karen Eggleston, find that health care expenditures among Chinese covered by relatively generous health insurance significantly increase at retirement, primarily due to an increase in the number of outpatient visits.

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This article was first published by the social and political economy portal IndiaSpend.


Women from poor households made about 235,000 fewer hospital visits compared to men for seven gender-neutral disease categories between January 2017 and October 2019, a new study analyzing a Rajasthan state health insurance scheme has estimated. The Bhamashah Swasthya Bima Yojana aims to provide health insurance to about 46 million persons living below the poverty line, as a step towards universal and equitable access to healthcare in the state, per the study.

Pascaline Dupas and Radhika Jain of Stanford University studied data of insurance claims from 4.2 million hospital visits under the Bhamashah scheme from its launch in December 2015 till October 2019, and the study was published as a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper. The study was conducted in partnership with the Rajasthan state government.

Women made up 45% of hospital visits under the Bhamashah scheme between January 2017 and October 2019, though their share in the population is 48%, per the study. The gender gap is starker for girls and older women. The share of girls in children aged under 10 years who visited the hospital under this insurance program was 33%, though their share of this age group's population is 47%; among those aged above 50 years, women are 51%, yet their share of hospital visits under this insurance program was 43%.

"We were struck by this discrepancy in the data. We were not expecting such a large [gender] difference," Dupas, an economist and professor at Stanford University, told IndiaSpend. In most other developed countries for which such data have been analyzed, subsidized healthcare usually caters to those who otherwise don't have access to it, added Jain, a postdoctoral fellow in Asia Health Policy at Stanford University, US.

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Closeup on hands holding a glucometer
News

A New Validated Tool Helps Predict Lifetime Health Outcomes for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations

A research team including APARC's Karen Eggleston developed a new simulation model that supports the economic evaluation of policy guidelines and clinical treatment pathways to tackle diabetes and prediabetes among Chinese and East Asian populations, for whom existing models may not be applicable.
A New Validated Tool Helps Predict Lifetime Health Outcomes for Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations
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Two women standing in a street in Rajasthan, India
UN Women/ Anindit Roy-Chowdhury/ Ashutosh Negi via Flickr
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A new study of the Rajasthan government's Bhamashah health insurance program for poor households has found that just providing health insurance cover doesn't reduce gender inequality in access to even subsidized health care.

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This opinion piece was first published in the economics and policy portal Ideas for India.


Equity in healthcare is a key goal of health policy in India. Analyzing administrative data from Rajasthan, this article highlights substantial gender gaps in the utilization of subsidized hospital care under the state health insurance program. These disparities persist despite substantial program expansion and seem to be driven by households being less willing to allocate resources to female vis-à-vis male health.

Over the past 15 years, India’s central government and numerous state governments have put in place health insurance programmes that entitle low-income households to free healthcare at public and empanelled private hospitals. Health equity and universal health coverage are explicit goals of these programs. In new research, we study gender equity in the Bhamashah Swasthya Bima Yojana (BSBY)1 health insurance program, which was launched in the state of Rajasthan in 2015, and is similar in design to the national Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY).

Our starting point is a dataset of insurance claims filed for all 4.2 million hospital visits between 2015 and 2019, including patient age, gender, residence address, hospital visited, dates of admission and discharge, and service(s) received. We geo-coded hospital locations and patient addresses, which allowed us to calculate proximity to hospitals and the distance traveled for every hospital visit. Finally, we linked the insurance data to the 2011 Census and data on three rounds of village-level (gram panchayat) elections. To our knowledge, the dataset we compiled from these various sources is the first dataset of its type in India and allows us to study care-seeking under insurance with unusual granularity.

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Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific
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New Book Explores the Intersection of Demographic Shifts and Innovation, Offering Lessons from Asian Nations

Contributing authors to the new volume 'Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific' convened for a virtual book launch and discussion of the challenges facing aging societies in East Asia and the roles technology and innovation may play in rebalancing them.
New Book Explores the Intersection of Demographic Shifts and Innovation, Offering Lessons from Asian Nations
A Japanese robot prototype lifts a dummy patient
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Robot Adoption Brings Benefits to Japan’s Aging Society

In one of the first studies of service sector robotics, APARC scholars examine the impacts of robots on nursing homes in Japan. They find that robot adoption may not be detrimental to labor and may help address the challenges of rapidly aging societies.
Robot Adoption Brings Benefits to Japan’s Aging Society
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Stanford University researchers' study of Bhamashah Swasthya Bima Yojana reveals that just expanding geographical access and reducing the cost of healthcare won't reduce gender disparity.

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Noa Ronkin
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Does the new wave of digital technologies portend a future in which robots and automation increasingly replace workers and destroy livelihoods? In one of the first studies of service sector robots, APARC experts find evidence to offset dystopian predictions of robot job replacement.

The researchers — Asia Health Policy Program Director Karen Eggleston, SK Center Fellow Yong Suk Lee, and University of Tokyo health economist Toshiaki Iizuka, our former visiting scholar — set out to examine how robots affect labor, productivity, and quality of care in Japan’s nursing homes. Their findings indicate that robot adoption may not be detrimental to labor and may help address the challenges of rapidly aging societies.

Eggleston recently joined the Future Health podcast, an initiative of the New South Wales Ministry of Health, to discuss the study and its implications. The program is available both as a video and audio podcast. Watch and listen below:

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Published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the study suggests that robot adoption has increased employment opportunities for non-regular care workers, helped mitigate the turnover problem that plagues nursing homes, and provided greater flexibility for workers. It is also published in AHPP's working paper series and is part of a broader research project by Eggleston, Lee, and Iizuka, that explores the impact of robots on nursing home care in Japan and the implications of robotic technologies adoption in aging societies.

The study has attracted media attention. The Financial Times Magazine, in a feature story and podcast, called it “groundbreaking in several ways but perhaps most clearly for setting its sights not on manufacturing but on the services sector, where robots are only just beginning to make their mark.” The Freakonomics Radio podcast also hosted Eggleston and Lee for a conversation about their research as part of an episode on collaborative robots and the future of work.

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The Unfolding Relationship Between Human Workers and Robots in an Aging World

On the Freakonomics Radio podcast, Karen Eggleston and Yong Suk Lee discuss their research into the effects of robots on staffing in Japanese nursing homes.
The Unfolding Relationship Between Human Workers and Robots in an Aging World
A Japanese robot prototype lifts a dummy patient
News

Robot Adoption Brings Benefits to Japan’s Aging Society

In one of the first studies of service sector robotics, APARC scholars examine the impacts of robots on nursing homes in Japan. They find that robot adoption may not be detrimental to labor and may help address the challenges of rapidly aging societies.
Robot Adoption Brings Benefits to Japan’s Aging Society
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On the Future Health podcast, Karen Eggleston discusses the findings and implications of her collaborative research into the effects of robot adoption on staffing in Japanese nursing homes.

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CDDRL Postdoctoral Scholar, 2021-22
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I am a political scientist (PhD degree expected in July 2021 from Harvard) working on political parties, social welfare policies and local governance, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa. My dissertation project focuses on secular parties in the region and explores why they could not form a robust electoral alternative to the Islamist parties in the post-uprisings period. In other projects, I explore voters' responses to executive aggrandizement (focusing on Turkey), and social welfare in the context of ethnic and organizational diversity (focusing on Lebanon). Prior to PhD, I worked as an education policy analyst in Turkey, managing several research projects in collaboration with the Ministry of Education, World Bank and UNICEF. I hold a BA degree in Political Science from Boğaziçi, and Master's degrees from the LSE and Brown. 

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Journal Articles
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Now that a third COVID-19 vaccine has been given emergency-use authorization, Michelle Mello and colleagues ask whether individuals should be able to choose which vaccine they receive.
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The New England Journal of Medicine
Authors
Michelle Mello
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Pascal Geldsetzer, PhD 
Assistant Professor of Medicine in the Division of Primary Care and Population Health

Title:  Regression Discontinuity in Electronic Health Record Data

Abstract: Regression discontinuity in electronic health record (EHR) data combines the main advantage of randomized controlled trials (causal inference without needing to adjust for confounders) with the large size, low cost, and representativeness of observational studies in routinely collected medical data. Regression discontinuity could be an important tool to help clinical medicine move away from a “one size fits all” approach because, along with the increasing size and availability of EHR data, it would allow for a rigorous examination of how treatment effects vary across highly granular patient subgroups. In addition, given the broad range of health outcomes recorded in EHR data, this design could be used to systematically test for a wide range of unexpected beneficial and adverse health effects of different treatments. I will talk about the broad motivation for this research and discuss examples from some of our ongoing work in this area. If there is time, I will also discuss some of my ongoing research on improving healthcare services for chronic conditions in low- and middle-income country settings. 

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https://stanford.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpcO2ppzooGNdbf8o1OxXNUWd3rukNEb7i 

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