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Why Ruling Elites Play the 'Ethnic Card': State Violence and Multiparty Transitions

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Linda Kirschke is a predoctoral fellow at CISAC. She is a PhD candidate at Princeton University, in the Department of Politics, and her research focuses on state politics and ethnic violence. She published "Informal repression, zero sum politics and late third wave transitions" in the Journal of Modern African Studies in 2000. Drawing on the cases of Cameroon, Rwanda and Kenya, this article shows that transitions to multiparty politics place Sub-Saharan South Africa at high risk for civil violence. Kirschke was a Eurasia Title VIII Fellow at the Social Science Research Council in 2002-03, working on Russian language training. In 2003-04, she was awarded an Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Pre-Dissertation Fellowship at Columbia Universityís Council for European Studies. Kirschke has a BA in French and African studies and has worked for human rights organizations in France, London and Africa.

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Linda Kirschke Predoctoral Fellow
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Prospects for Peace in South Asia

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Prospects for Peace in South Asia, the inaugural title in a new series of "Studies of the Asia-Pacific Research Center" published by Stanford University Press, addresses the largely hostile, often violent relations between India and Pakistan that date from their independence in 1947. The persistent conflict between the two neighboring countries over Kashmir has defied numerous international attempts at resolution and entered its most dangerous phase when both India and Pakistan became nuclear powers in 1998.

The struggle over Kashmir is enduringly rooted in national identity, religion, and human rights. It has also influenced the politicization of Pakistan's army, religious radicalism, and nuclearization in both countries. This incisive volume analyzes these forces, their impact on relations between the two countries, and alternative roles the United States might play in resolving the dispute. While acknowledging the risks, the book is optimistic about peace in South Asia. The key argument is that many of the domestic concerns (such as territorial integrity in both countries and civilian-military rapprochement in Pakistan) that were fueling the conflict have abated.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction, by Rafiq Dossani and Henry S. Rowen

PAKISTAN: POLITICS AND KASHMIR

2. Islamic Extremism and Regional Conflict in South Asia, by Vali Nasr

3. Constitutional and Political Change in Pakistan: The Military-Governance Paradigm, by Charles H. Kennedy

4. The Practice of Islam in Pakistan and the Influence of Islam on Pakistani Politics, by C. Christine Fair and Karthik Vaidyanathan

5. Pakistan's Relations with Azad Kashmir and the Impact on Indo-Pakistani Relations, by Rifaat Hussain

INDIA: POLITICS AND KASHMIR

6.Who Speaks for India? The Role of Civil Society in Defining Indian Nationalism, by Ainslie T. Embree

7. Hindu Nationalism and the BJP: Transforming Religion and Politics in India, by Robert L. Hardgrave, Jr.

8. Hindu Ethnonationalism, Muslim Jihad, and Secularism: Muslims in the Political Life of the Republic of India, by Barbara D. Metcalf

9. Jammu and Kashmir in the Indian Union: The Politics of Autonomy, by Chandrashekhar Dasgupta

INDIA AND PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR DOCTRINES AND U.S. CONCERNS

10. The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation-Control in South Asia, by Michael Krepon

11. Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine, by Peter R. Lavoy

12. Coercive Diplomacy in a Nuclear Environment: The December 13 Crisis, by Rajesh M. Basrur

13. U.S. Interests in South Asia, by Howard B. Schaffer

Notes

About the Contributors

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Stanford University Press: Studies of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Rafiq Dossani
Henry S. Rowen

Detainee Abuse: A Crisis in International Humanitarian Law

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Scott Horton is a leading authority on international law regarding torture. He led an American Bar Association investigation into standards of treatment for detainees which was published in April 2004. He was a consultant for those representing Guantanamo Bay detainees, advising them on the legal implications of officially sanctioned torture. He contributed to the recent book, "The Torture Papers: the Road to Abu Ghraib."

An attorney and human rights defender, Scott represented Andrei Sakharov, Elena Bonner and other leaders of the human rights movement in the formerly communist world for more than twenty years. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and an advisor to its Center on Preventive Action, the president of the International League for Human Rights, chair of the New York City Bar's Committee on International Law, and an adjunct professor at Columbia University Law School. He has appeared as a commentator on international law issues on BBC's Panorama, ABC's 20/20 and Nightline, the CBS Evening News, NBC Dateline, CNN's Paula Zahn Show, PBS's NOW with Bill Moyers and as a frequent guest on the Newshour with Jim Lehrer.

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Scott Horton Partner Patterson, Belknap, Webb & Tyler.
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APARC and Stanford University Press launch new publications series

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Rafiq Dossani
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On March 25, 2005, Stanford University Press will publish Prospects for Peace in South Asia, the inaugural book in a new series of "Studies of the Asia-Pacific Research Center." Designed to showcase APARC's cutting-edge research on contemporary Asia, the series will feature the varied work of the Center's faculty and the unique interdisciplinary perspective that informs it. According to Andrew Walder, director of APARC, "We are delighted to begin this series with Stanford University Press, which has a large and distinguished list of books on modern East Asia. It is a perfect way to showcase the best of the scholarly work to come out of APARC." Two more books have recently been added to the series pipeline.

Prospects for Peace in South Asia addresses the largely hostile, often violent relations between India and Pakistan that date from their independence in 1947. The most persistent conflict between the two neighboring countries over Kashmir has defied numerous international attempts at resolution.

The struggle over Kashmir is rooted in national identity, religion, and human rights. It has also influenced the politicization of Pakistan's army, religious radicalism, and nuclearization in both countries. Dossani and Rowen's incisive volume analyzes these forces, their impact on relations between the two countries, and alternative roles the United States might play in resolving the dispute. While acknowledging the risks, the book is optimistic about peace in South Asia. The key argument is that many of the domestic concerns -- such as territorial integrity and civilian-military rapprochement -- that had fueled the conflict have now abated.

"Volatile relations between India and Pakistan reflect issues deeper than territorial ambitions over Kashmir and predate their nuclear capability. That is a key theme of the book. The book is particularly timely: as India turns increasingly vibrant and globally important and Pakistan begins to clear the shadows of its past, policymakers need to understand the issues that will drive relations into the long-term," said Rafiq Dossani, co-editor, senior research scholar at APARC, and director of its South Asia Initiative. The volume's co-editor, Henry S. Rowen, is director emeritus of APARC, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and emeritus professor of Public Policy and Management at Stanford's Graduate School of Business.

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America and the New Asia

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Zbigniew Brzezinski has had a distinguished career in government and academia. From 1977 to 1981 he was the National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter. In 1981 he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his role in the normalization of U.S.-Chinese relations and for his contributions to the human rights and national security policies of the United States. He is currently the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at the Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.

The Oksenberg Lecture honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001) longtime member of Shorenstein APARC, senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for International Studies, and an authority on China. Professor Oksenberg was consistently outspoken about the need for the United States to engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Lecture recognizes distinguished individuals who have helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

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The Honorable Zbigniew Brzezinski Former National Security Adviser and Professor, American Foreign Policy Johns Hopkins University
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Walter H. Shorenstein Forum for Asia Pacific Studies
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Policies Matter: Why the Millennium Challenge Corporation Links Performance to Development Aid

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Sherri G. Kraham joined the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) in March 2004 as its Director of Development Policy, working on a broad range of policy issues related to MCC's innovative approach to development. Ms. Kraham, a lawyer, transferred from the U.S. Department of State where she worked overseeing and implementing various U.S. Foreign Assistance including development, peacekeeping and security, humanitarian assistance, and human rights programs. She spent several years working on programs related to Iraq and prior to joining MCC, Ms. Kraham deployed to Baghdad working with the Coalition Provisional Authority as part of the first civilian team that worked on reconstruction following the war.

About the Millenium Challenge Corporation: President George W. Bush established the Millenium Challenge Account in order to link greater contributions from developed nations to greater responsibility from developing nations. The Millennium Challenge Account (MCA)is designed to concretely link assitance to performance by providing aid to those countries that rule justly, invest in their people, and encourage economic freedom. With strong bipartisan support, Congress authorized the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) to administer the MCA and provided $1 billion in initial funding for FY04. President Bush's request for the MCA in FY 2005 was $2.5 billion of which Congress appropriated $1.5 billion. The President has pledged to increase funding for the MCA to $5 billion in the future.

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Sherri G. Kraham Development Policy Director Millenium Challenge Corporation
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North Korea 2005 and Beyond

The Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) at the Stanford Institute for International Studies is hosting a conference on North Korea.

With the distraction of the U.S. Presidential election behind us and uncertainty over the direction of a second Bush Administration before us, this conference will attempt to take stock of what is happening in North Korea as of 2005 and to get a snapshot of how the United States, South Korea and other interested parties now view this particularly enigmatic and problematic country.

For this conference, we will bring together specialists in security, economics, politics and human rights to encourage a broad-based inquiry as well as facilitate a sharing of ideas among those who may not normally come into contact.

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Global Jurisprudence Colloquium

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Stanford Law School, the Stanford Rule of Law Program, the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Santa Clara University School of Law, and the Santa Clara Institute of International and Comparative Law will host a Global Jurisprudence Colloquium at Stanford University on March 17-18, 2005, on the theme of Decisions of International Legal Institutions: Compliance and Enforcement. The Colloquium will provide leading judges from a number of key international courts and tribunals with an opportunity to interact and share with the Stanford community and the public their insights into issues presented by the growing use of international courts to promote the rule of law.

Distinguished international jurists scheduled to participate in the Colloquium include Judges Higgins and Owada of the International Court of Justice, Judges Pillay and Song of the International Criminal Court, President Meron and Judge Robinson of the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, Judge Mumba of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, Judge Ameli of the Iran-United States Claims Tribunal, Judge Kokott of the European Court of Justice, Judge Greve of the European Court of Human Rights, and President Robertson of the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

On March 18, the Colloquium participants, joined by distinguished international law and international relations faculty, will hold three panel discussions, each on a particular theme related to the historic challenge to improve enforcement of international law and efforts to enhance the rule of law. These panel discussions will be held at Stanford Law School and are open to the University community and the public.

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Worsened by war: Two hard-hit areas beset by civil strife

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For the two regions hardest hit by the Asian tsunamis, international relief efforts are being complicated by more than the rising death tolls and physical devastation: They are also war zones. APARC's Donald K. Emmerson comments.

Washington -- For the two regions hit hardest by the Asian tsunami waves, international relief efforts are being complicated by more than the rising death tolls and physical devastation -- they are also war zones.

In the Indian Ocean nation of Sri Lanka and Indonesia's western Aceh province, bitter conflicts threaten to slow even further the painstaking work of locating victims, repairing infrastructure and caring for hundreds of thousands of refugees, according to relief workers and regional experts.

The Sri Lankan government and the rebel Tamil Tigers, which have fought a two-decade civil war, Tuesday traded barbs over the relief efforts and refused to work together -- and instead launched competing efforts.

Across the Indian Ocean, at the northern tip of Sumatra Island in Indonesia, the province of Aceh has been a no-go zone for most international aid organizations and journalists since May 2003, when a new government crackdown was launched in the 28-year struggle against the Free Aceh Movement.

Aid organizations scrambled to get into Aceh while former residents seeking to go back to find relatives complained Tuesday that the Indonesian government, which has been accused of widespread human rights violations in the area, continued to limit access, providing only two-week visas.

Academic analysts expressed hope that the tsunami tragedy might spur some badly needed progress in the two conflicts by creating opportunities for humanitarian cooperation. But at least in the short term, the warring factions were jockeying for advantage -- and in the process slowing rescue and relief efforts and putting more lives at risk.

"The contending sides, both in Sri Lanka and Aceh, are racing to provide relief," said Donald Emmerson, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Institute for International Studies and director of the Southeast Asian Forum.

"At stake is the legitimacy of the government on the one hand -- Colombo and Jakarta -- and the Tamil Tigers and the Free Aceh Movement on the other. If the response of the Sri Lankan and Indonesian governments is insufficient, there could be a crisis of legitimacy in those two areas, which have been engaged in civil war for some decades," he said.

In Sri Lanka, the minority Tamils, who are Hindu, have waged civil war against the country's majority Buddhists since 1983, and a 2002 cease-fire remains brittle. "Tens of thousands have died in an ethnic conflict that continues to fester" since the cease-fire, according to an unclassified report by the CIA.

The Tamil rebels control much of the country's north and east, including coastal areas severely damaged by the tsunami. The Tamil Tigers are conducting their own relief efforts and have made separate appeals to donor countries and the United Nations for assistance.

Even the immense scale of the tsunami damage did not appear to tamp down the deep-seated atmosphere of confrontation.

The Tamil Rehabilitation Organization said in a statement that "assistance channeled through the government of Sri Lanka has failed to reach the displaced in the northeast." It said that one-fourth of the people killed in the northeast were in Tamil-controlled areas.

A military spokesman, Brig. Daya Ratnayake, responded that the government was doing everything it can to help those affected in government-controlled areas and criticized the rebels for trying to score points amid the suffering.

In Aceh, where rebels are waging a fight for independence, there were some hopeful signs in the face of the horrific destruction. The Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement reportedly agreed to a cease-fire Tuesday to let aid efforts reach those in need.

However, aid officials worried that it would take days to get assistance to Aceh, where the majority of Indonesia's deaths occurred. And they said the conflict already has constrained aid efforts by limiting access to the region.

"International nongovernmental organizations have not been allowed into the conflict area since May 2003," said Michael Beer of the Washington-based Nonviolence International, whose field office in the provincial capital of Banda Aceh was lost, along with three of its four staff members. "This has hampered efforts already. The conflict has set back the international community, because they are starting from zero and have been excluded for political reasons."

"Even without the rebellion it is a tough area for the government to go in," said Blair King of the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, a nonprofit in Washington. "That is exacerbated by the political situation."

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