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This article investigates the links between trade policy and economic growth in a panel of 57 countries between 1970 and 1989. It develops a new measure of trade policy openness based on the policy component of trade shares, using it in a simultaneous equations system to identify the effect of trade policy on several determinants of growth.

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The World Bank Economic Review
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Romain Wacziarg
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Following the end of the Cold War, the United States and its allies recognized that it was in their vital security interests to promote stable transitions in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the New Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union. For the most part, such transitions would depend on the efforts of the states in transition themselves, including many that had been newly formed. However, one way in which the Western nations could help was by economic assistance -- both financial and technical.

The most abundant and efficacious form of financing will eventually be direct investment by Western private industry combined with indigenous investment in the countries; however, many of the transitioning countries, particularly those of the NIS did not have many attractive investment targets, with the possible exception of the natural resources sector. Recognizing this, the Western countries established a variety of unilateral and multilateral mechanisms to provide interim financing. These mechanisms utilized existing multilateral institutions such as the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund as well as existing unilateral institutions such as the United States' Export-Import Bank, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, and the Trade and Development Agency. The charters and agendas of several existing institutions were expanded to address the specific issues in CEE/NIS. In addition, they established new multilateral institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and unilateral institutions such as several enterprise funds set up by the United States and TACIS (Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States) set up by the European Union.

In conjunction with these sources of finance the Western countries also initiated an extensive series of programs designed to address specific economic development and security issues in the region. These programs provided their own funding for projects, provided extensive technical assistance, and in some cases were designed to attract and work with Western private industry. One such program is the Nuclear Cities Initiative (NCI), which is managed by the U.S. Department of Energy. NCI's primary objective is to help prevent the flow of critical weapons technology and personnel from Russia to countries aspiring to acquire nuclear weapons. NCI's approach is to assist Russia in downsizing its nuclear weapons complex by creating sustainable, non-military employment for nuclear weapon specialists in Russia's closed nuclear cities. NCI is designed to build infrastructure necessary to attract private investment and to facilitate the efforts of private investors, thereby leveraging NCI's own budget.

Many of the sources of finance cited herein require a Western company as a strategic partner and co-investor. Thus the missions of NCI and these financial sources are highly complementary. Recognizing this, Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation, under contract to NCI and under subcontract to the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, undertook a project to assemble information on many sources of finance that were applicable to NCI's mission, particularly those that are at least partially capitalized by the United States Government (USG). The intent was to make this information available to NCI partners to facilitate the establishment of ventures co-financed by NCI, the Russian Federation, private Western industry, and the sources described herein. While this research was performed for the purposes of NCI, much of the data are generally applicable to other projects seeking financing in Russia.

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CISAC
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The complex issues arising from child labor have been addressed in several of the most significant ways--yielding the most important lessons--in the Asia Pacific region. It is in the Asia Pacific region too, that the greatest number of child laborers live. This conference will address the complexities of child labor and review the range of key "solutions" to improve the condition of children--especially impoverished, working children--in the region. Some people claim that abusive child labor is an inevitable byproduct of agrarian and developing economies. But is this accurate? What measures will alleviate abuses and hasten the elimination of exploitation? The United States is now the largest contributor to the ILO's International Programme on the Eradication of Child Labor. At the same time, the United States and US-based business have been accused of contributing to increases in child labor, through trade practices that allegedly expand inequality, or through the strong U.S. role in promoting neo-liberal economic policies through the activities of multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF. What role can the United States play in alleviating the problem--and what role is it playing now? Are the critiques accurate? The term "child labor" conjures up images of poor young people, working in unsafe conditions, receiving inadequate wages, their health imperiled for life and their opportunity for education denied. What policies are appropriate to bring the worst practices to a swift though humane end? Much of the debate has been highly polemical, but more recently, the tone of the discussion has begun to change. It has begun to focus on the concrete measures that can be undertaken to improve the conditions under which children work, and to eliminate the abuses and exploitation to which millions of children are subjected. Participants in this roundtable will share the latest empirical findings on child labor in Asia and identify policies that are at the cutting edge in dealing with this issue.

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

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The story of South Asia is that of missed opportunities. Mr. Burki will take a look at South Asia in comparison to East Asia. Mr. Shahid Javed Burki started his career as a member of the Civil Service of Pakistan. He held various positions including Director of West Pakistan Rural Works Program, Economic Advisor to the Governor and Chief Economist of West Pakistan, and Economic Consultant to the Ministry of Commerce. In 1974, Mr. Burki joined the World Bank as Senior Economist in the Policy Planning Division. He was promoted to Division Chief of the Policy Planning and Program Review Department and later became Senior Economic and Policy Advisor in the Office of the Vice President of External Relations. After becoming the Director of the International Relations Department of that vice-presidency, he was appointed Director for China and Mongolia, helping to design and implement the World Bank's lending program in China - at one point the largest Bank-financed program in the world. Mr. Burki was appointed Vice President of the Latin America and Caribbean Region and worked in this position until his retirement in August, 1999. Upon leaving the Bank, Mr. Burki was invited to head the EMP-Financial Advisors, LLC, a consulting firm located in Washington, D.C. Mr. Shahid Javed Burki was educated at Government College, Lahore; Christ Church, Oxford University (where he was a Rhodes Scholar) and Harvard University (Kennedy School and Economics Department). He holds graduate degrees in Physics and Economics.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Shahid Javed Burki Visiting Scholar, A/PARC Speaker Stanford University
Seminars
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The rate of investment sufficient to provide developing Asia with a reasonably adequate supply of electricity is immense, ranging from a World Bank estimate of 2000 megawatts (MW) each month (which translates into an annual investment of about $35 billion per year) to even higher estimates. All of the larger countries of developing Asia have been looking for foreign direct investment (FDI) to provide a significant amount of the needed capital. In 1996, financial closings for new power projects in developing Asia reached $13.7 billion, or almost 40 percent of the lower range of the estimated requirement. Although data on the foreign share of the monetary value of financial closings is not available, it is likely to be over 80 percent. Thus, the foreign share of total direct investment in power projects in developing Asia appeared to have been around 30 percent before the East Asian currency crisis.

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Shorenstein APARC
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Pieter P. Bottelier recently completed a 28-year tenure at the World Bank. He served in various senior managerial and advisory capacities for programs in Asia, Africa and Latin America. His most recent positions were, until December l998, Senior Advisor to the Vice President, East Asia and Pacific Region, and Chief of the World Bank's Resident Mission in Beijing (1993-97). He now teaches at the School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University, and is associated with the Center for Strategic International Studies in Washington DC. He is the author of many articles on China. He studied economics and banking at the University of Amsterdam and at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Bechtel Conference Center

Pieter P. Bottelier Professor Speaker School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University
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APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5656 (650) 723-6530
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APARC Visiting Professor
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Douglas Webster was a consulting professor at APARC from January 1999 - 2003. Webster has worked on urban and regional development issues in East Asia for twenty-five years, as an advisor to international organizations, East Asian governments, and the private sector. He was professor of planning at the University of British Columbia, the Asian Institute of Technology, and the University of Calgary, where he directed the urban planning program. His current interests focus on peri-urbanization in East Asia--the dynamic rural-urban transition process underway near large East Asian cities. Webster is currently senior urban advisor to the Thai Government (NESDB) and the East Asian Urban Unit (EASUR) of the World Bank.

Webster worked closely with Thomas Rohlen and James Raphael on the "Urban Dynamics of East Asia" project. In 1999, they taught a course on "Cities and Urban Systems in East Asia" that served as a catalyst for exploring developing ideas related to understanding urban development trajectories in East Asian cities--a key focus of the project. In 2000 and 2001, Webster taught a course on "Managing the Urban Environment in East Asia". Webster's recent publications have focused on comparative peri-urbanization in East Asia, application of strategic planning approaches to urban management, and the dynamics of change in post 1997 Bangkok. Through the World Bank, Webster is currently engaged in policy dialogues on urbanization with three Asian nations: China, the Philippines, and Thailand. In addition, he is a member of the team producing the World Bank's East Asian urbanization strategy that will be released shortly.

Webster and his colleagues on the Urban Dynamics project have recently been awarded a grant from the Ford Foundation to study comparative peri-urbanization in China.

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At the Gleneagles summit in July 2005, the heads of state from the G-8 countries - the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom - called on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the African Development Bank to cancel 100 percent of their debt claims on the world's poorest countries. The world's richest countries have agreed in principle to forgive roughly $55 billion dollars owed by the world's poorest nations. This article considers the wisdom of the proposal for debt forgiveness, from the standpoint of stimulating economic growth in highly indebted countries. In the 1980s, debt relief under the "Brady Plan" helped to restore investment and growth in a number of middle-income developing countries. However, the debt relief plan for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) launched by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in 1996 has had little impact on either investment or growth in the recipient countries. We will explore the key differences between the countries targeted by these two debt relief schemes and argue that the Gleneagles proposal for debt relief is, at best, likely to have little effect at all. Debt relief is unlikely to help the world's poorest countries because, unlike the middle-income Brady countries, their main economic difficulty is not debt overhang, but an absence of functional economic institutions that provide the foundation for profitable investment and growth. We will show that debt relief may be more valuable for Brady-like middle-income countries than for low-income ones because of how it leverages the private sector.

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Journal of Economic Perspectives
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Peter Blair Henry
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This collection of papers stems from a recent World Bank project focused upon the contentious issue of whether government has played any positive role in the success of the so-called "high-performing" Asian economies. It goes beyond the influential World Bank volume The East Asian Miracle to chart a middle ground that recognizes diversity among the different East Asian economies, as well as the evolutionary nature of government intervention.

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Oxford University Press in "The Role of Government in East Asian Economic Development: Comparative Institutional Analysis"
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