Stanford University

Trade

Jeremy Carl

616 Serra St.
Encina Hall E415
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 723-2136 (650) 724-1717
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Jeremy Carl is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution whose work focuses on energy and environmental policy, with particular emphasis on energy security, climate policy, and global fossil fuel markets. In addition, he writes extensively on US-India relations and Indian politics.

Before coming to Stanford, he was a  research fellow in resource and development economics at the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India’s leading energy and environmental policy organization.

He is the editor of Conversations about Energy: How the Experts See America’s Energy Choices, and his work has appeared in numerous publications including the Journal of Energy Security, Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development, and Papers on International Environmental Negotiation.

In addition to his work on energy, the environment, and India, Jeremy has written about a variety of other issues related to U.S. politics and public policy; Jeremy’s work has been featured in and cited by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, Newsweek, South China Morning Post, Indian Express, and many other leading newspapers and magazines. He has advised and assisted numerous groups including the World Bank, the United Nations, and the staff of the U.S. Congress.

Jeremy received a BA with distinction from Yale University. He holds an MPA from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and did doctoral work at Stanford University, where he was a Packard Foundation Stanford Graduate Fellow.

Research Fellow

Presidential Term Limits as an Instrument for Democratization

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Gideon Maltz is studying the role of presidential term limits in advancing democracy, strategies for more effectively enforcing term limits, and the question of term limits in the context of parliamentary systems. Maltz has worked as a Junior Fellow in the Democracy & Rule of Law program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and as a Business Analyst at McKinsey & Company. He has also spent time working on comparative constitutionalism as a part-time consultant at the National Endowment for Democracy, on Sudan and Zimbabwe at the International Crisis Group, and on international trade at the law firm of Hogan & Hartson.

Maltz is a pre-doctoral (law) fellow at CDDRL in 2005-2006.

Encina Basement Conference Room

Gideon Maltz

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Pre-doctoral Fellow 2005 - 2006

Gideon Maltz is studying the role of presidential term limits in advancing democracy, strategies for more effectively enforcing term limits, and the question of term limits in the context of parliamentary systems. Gideon has worked as a Junior Fellow in the Democracy & Rule of Law program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and as a Business Analyst at McKinsey & Company. He has also spent time working on comparative constitutionalism as a part-time consultant at the National Endowment for Democracy, on Sudan and Zimbabwe at the International Crisis Group, and on international trade at the law firm of Hogan & Hartson.

Gideon graduated with a B.A. in Ethics, Politics & Economics from Yale and is currently a third-year student at Stanford Law School. He is also a graduate fellow at the Stanford Center for International Conflict and Negotiation (SCICN).

Gideon Maltz Speaker
Seminars

Network Attribution Theory: A New Approach to Internationally Wrongful Acts

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Matthew Rojansky is a JD candidate at Stanford Law School and a CISAC predoctoral fellow. His research focuses on international law and security, counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation. He is currently conducting a study of UN Security Council legitimacy in the global counter-terrorism context, and developing a theory of network-based attribution for internationally wrongful acts. He has worked for the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of Special Investigations, the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and private law firms, where he has worked on international trade and IP litigation.

He received an AB in Soviet history from Harvard University. Next year, he will serve as a clerk for the United States Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Matthew Rojansky Speaker
Seminars

Delivering Education in Developing Countries: Challenges and Priorities

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The Stanford Association for International Development (SAID) and the Stanford Graduate School of Business International Development Club (GSB-ID) will be hosting its fourth annual conference. Each year, SAID and the GSB-ID collaborate to bring together relevant experts, academics, and practitioners from NGOs, government agencies and international institutions across the country to speak on critical issues in development. Drawing over 200 students, faculty and community members each year, the conference aims to promote and share knowledge about effective and innovative approaches to development and to inspire student interest in the field. This year, the conference will address approaches to education in developing countries, focusing in particular on the challenges to creating effective educational systems and funding allocation to different education priorities.

In the past, the conference has also included a lunchtime development fair with Bay Area-based NGOs to provide interested students with job, internship or volunteering opportunities, as well as real-life perspectives on working in international development. This year, the fair will be expanded to include not only NGOs but also development-related student groups on campus. Hopefully, this will be an opportunity for students looking for a way to get involved "closer to home" and to strengthen the ties among the growing development community at Stanford.

Speakers from USAID, World Bank, Global Fund for Children, the Hewlett Foundation, and more.

Sponsored by Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, ASSU, VPUE, ASSU Speakers Bureau, GSB Global Management Program, GSB Center for Global Business and Economy, Economics Dept., and the OSA.

Bishop Auditorium
Stanford Graduate School of Business

Cream Wright Chief of Education Keynote Speaker UNICEF
Conferences

Masahiko Aoki

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Henri and Tomoye Takahashi Professor of Japanese Studies, Department of Economics, Emeritus
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Emeritus
Senior Fellow at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
2011_MasaAoki2_Web.jpg PhD

Masahiko Aoki was the Henri and Tomoye Takahashi Professor Emeritus of Japanese Studies in the Department of Economics, and a senior fellow of the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

Aoki was a theoretical and applied economist with a strong interest in institutional and comparative issues. He specialized in the theory of institutions, corporate architecture and governance, and the Japanese and Chinese economies.

His most recent book, Corporations in Evolving Diversity: Cognition, Governance, and Institutions, based on his 2008 Clarendon Lectures, was published in 2010 by Oxford University Press. It identifies a variety of corporate architecture as diverse associational cognitive systems, and discusses their implications to corporate governance, as well their modes of interactions with society, polity, and financial markets within a unified game-theoretic perspective. His previous book, Toward a Comparative Institutional Analysis, was published in 2001 by MIT Press. This work developed a conceptual and analytical framework for integrating comparative studies of institutions in economics and other social science disciplines using game-theoretic language. Aoki's research has been also published in the leading journals in economics, including the American Economic Review, Econometrica, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Economic Literature, Industrial and Corporate Change, and the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organizations.

Aoki was the president of the International Economic Association from 2008 to 2011, and is also a former president of the Japanese Economic Association. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and the founding editor of the Journal of Japanese and International Economies. He was awarded the Japan Academy Prize in 1990, and the sixth International Schumpeter Prize in 1998. Between 2001 and 2004, Aoki served as the president and chief research officer of the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry, an independent administrative institution specializing in public policy research in Japan.

Aoki graduated from the University of Tokyo with a B.A. and an M.A. in economics, and earned a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Minnesota in 1967. He was formerly an assistant professor at Stanford University and Harvard University and served as both an associate and full professor at the University of Kyoto before rejoining the Stanford faculty in 1984.

CV

Vegetables in China

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In this report I provide a summary of the work that I have been doing on China’s vegetable economy over the past year. This work, in part, was supported financially by the Western Growers Association (WGA). The funds provided by the WGA were mostly used to support a survey of vegetable producers and wholesale procurement traders in rural China. It also went to support the procurement of a data set that could aid in the analysis of the productivity of China’s vegetable producers. The work that I summarize here, however, is from far more different sources. I greatly appreciate the support of WGA and look forward to continuing to interact with the management and members in the coming years.

To make the material more accessible, I plan on organizing this report by asking a question and then summarizing the answer. In this way I can cover a lot of ground without getting lost in the details. I am more than willing to try on any given aspect of the final report to expand on the issues.

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Publication Type
Policy Briefs
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Scott Rozelle

Chinese Agricultural Transition: Trade, Social and Environmental Impact

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The project studies the impact of China's current economic transition on its agricultural economy with special reference to the consequences of trade liberalization and of changing trade flows. The project will track impacts on social conditions and on the environment in China's rural areas as well as on markets in the rest of the world, with particular emphasis on the EU. For this, the research considers (a) the dynamic, rapid pace of the transition; (b) the size and geographical diversity of the country; and (c) the effect of the changes on the rest of the world. The research opts for a quantitative approach, supplemented by qualitative investigations, and focuses on three themes: trade, social conditions, and environment. On trade, the research aims to account for the size of China's trade and take a closer look at trade between the EU and China with scenario simulations over the period 2000-2030, by establishing a linkage between (a) the Chinagromodel, a spatially explicit equilibrium model that comprehensively depicts China's farm sector in 2433 counties, while connecting these through trade and transportation flows; (b) the GTAPmodel of world trade; (c) FEA-27, a model of EU-agriculture for 27 members states. The research on social conditions proceeds by linking geo-referenced household surveys to a population census of China and a detailed geographical data set, relying on a suitable adaptation of poverty mapping methodology, so as to trace impacts at household level. Finally, we use agro-ecological assessment tools to quantify the environmental pressures resulting from intensified livestock industry as well as from intensified horticulture production. Findings on the three themes are subsequently integrated to arrive at policy suggestions that account for efficiency, equity and sustainability considerations. Throughout the project, a policy dialogue and dissemination program, conducted in both China and the EU, maintains communication with policy makers.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
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Scott Rozelle

Small Traders and Small Farmers: The Small Engines Driving China's Giant Boom in Horticulture

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The supermarket revolution has arrived in China and is spreading as fast as or faster than anywhere in the world. As the demand for vegetables, fruit, nuts and other high valued products have risen, urban retailers are finding new venues from which they can sell to the increasing prosperous city residents. However, the experience of many developing countries suggests that there could be serious distributional impacts of the rising of supermarkets. There is concern among policy makers and academics that poor, small farmers might be excluded from market. The main goal of our paper is to understand what types of farmers have been able to participate in the horticultural revolution, how they interact with markets and how supply chains affect their production decisions. Using a unique set of spatially sampled communities in the Greater Beijing area, in contrast to fears of some researchers, we find small and poor farmers have actively participate in the emergence of China's horticulture economy. Moreover, there has been almost no penetration of modern wholesalers or retailers into rural communities. In the paper we document seven characteristics of China's food economy that we believe account for this set of findings.

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Publication Type
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Scott Rozelle

The Company You Keep: How Joining Regional Trade Agreements Affects Investor Risk in Developing Countries.

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Encina Basement Conference Room

Julia Gray

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Pre-doctoral Fellow 2005 - 2006

Her dissertation research focuses on the role of international institutions in economic development. Specifically, the dissertation looks at which international institutions - including trade agreements and international treaties - give credibility to developing countries in the eyes of financial markets as well as contribute to the success or failure of domestic policy reform. She has previously worked in Prague for Transitions magazine which covers all 27 post-communist countries, as well as in Budapest for Freedom House as the program officer for the Regional Networking Project.

Julia Gray Speaker CDDRL/UCLA
Seminars

New Program on Food Security and the Environment Tackles Global Hunger and Environmental Destruction

Authors
Rosamond L. Naylor
News Type
News
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This past autumn the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) in conjunction with the Woods Institute for the Environment launched a program on Food Security and the Environment (FSE) to address the deficit in academia and, on a larger scale, the global dialogue surrounding the critical issues of food security, poverty, and environmental degradation.

"Hunger is the silent killer and moral outrage of our time; however, there are few university programs in the United States designed to study and solve the problem of global food insecurity," states program director Rosamond L. Naylor. "FSE's dual affiliation with FSI and the new Stanford Institute for the Environment position it well to make significant steps in this area."

Through a focused research portfolio and an interdisciplinary team of scholars led by Naylor and CESP (Center for Environmental Science and Policy) co-director Walter P. Falcon, FSE aims to design new approaches to solve these persistent and under-prioritized problems, expand higher education on food security and the environment at Stanford, and provide direct policy outreach.

Productive food systems and their environmental consequences are at the core of the program. While many of these systems are global in character, but they are influenced significantly by differing food objectives, income level, and instruments among nations. The program thus seeks to understand the food security issues that are of paramount interest to poor countries, the food diversification challenges that are a focus of middle-income nations, and the food safety and subsidy concerns prominent in richer nations.

Chronic hunger in a time of prosperity

Although the world's supply of basic foods has doubled over the past century, roughly 850 million people (12 percent of the world's population) suffer from chronic hunger. Food insecurity deaths during the past 20 years outnumber war deaths by a factor of at least 5 to 1. Food insecurity is particularly widespread in agricultural regions where resource scarcity and environmental degradation constrain productivity and income growth.

FSE is currently assessing the impacts of climate variability on food security in Asian rice economies. This ongoing project combines the expertise of atmospheric scientists, agricultural economists, and policy analysts to understand and mitigate the adverse effects of El Niño-related climate variability on rice production and food security under current and future global warming conditions. As a consequence of Falcon and Naylor's long-standing roles as policy advisors in Indonesia, models developed through this project have already been embedded into analytical units within Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture, the Planning Ministry, and the Ministry of Finance.

"With such forecasts in hand, the relevant government agencies are much better equipped to mitigate the negative consequences of El Niño events on incomes and food security in the Indonesian countryside," explain Falcon and Naylor.

Food diversification and intensification

With rapid income growth, urbanization, and population growth in developing economies, priorities shift from food security to the diversification of agricultural production and consumption. "Meat production is projected to double by 2020" states Harold A. Mooney, CESP senior fellow and an author of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. "In China alone, meat consumption has more than doubled in the past generation." As a result, land once used to provide grains for humans now provides feed for hogs and poultry.

These trends will have major consequences on the global environment-affecting the quality of the atmosphere, water, and soil due to nutrient overloads; impacting marine fisheries both locally and globally through fish meal use; and threatening human health, as, for example, through excessive use of antibiotics.

An FSE project is looking at these trends as it relates to intensive livestock production and assessing the environmental impacts to gain a better understanding of the true costs of this resource-intensive system. A product of this work recently appeared as a Policy Forum piece in the December 9, 2005, issue of Science titled "Losing the Links Between Livestock and Land".

Numerous factors have contributed to the global growth of livestock systems, lead author Naylor notes, including declining feed-grain prices, relatively inexpensive transportation costs, and trade liberalization. "But many of the true costs remain largely unaccounted for," she says. Those costs include destruction of forests and grasslands to provide farmland for corn, soybeans, and other feed crops destined not directly for humans but for livestock; utilization of large quantities of freshwater; and nitrogen losses from croplands and animal manure.

Naylor and her research team are seeking better ways to track all costs of livestock production, especially the hidden ones related to ecosystem degradation and destruction. "What is needed is a re-coupling of crop and livestock systems," Naylor says. "If not physically, then through pricing and other policy mechanisms that reflect social costs of resource use and ecological abuse."

Such policies "should not significantly compromise the improving diets of developing countries, nor should they prohibit trade," Naylor adds. Instead, they should "focus on regulatory and incentive-based tools to encourage livestock and feed producers to internalize pollution costs, minimize nutrient run-off, and pay the true price of water."

Looking ahead

The future of the program on Food Security and the Environment looks bright, busy, and expansive. While a varied portfolio of projects is in line for the upcoming year, a strong emphasis remains in the area of food security. Building on existing research at Stanford, researchers are identifying avenues for enhancing orphan crop production in the world's least developed countries-crops with little international trade and investment, but with high local value in terms of food and nutrition security. The work seeks to identify advanced genetic and genomic strategies, along with natural resource management strategies, to improve orphan crop yields and stability, enhance crop diversity, and increase rural incomes through orphan crop production.

Another priority area of research centers on the development of biofuels. Biofuels are becoming increasingly a part of the policy set for world food and agriculture. As countries such as the United States seek energy self-reliance and look for alternatives to food and feed subsidies under WTO (World Trade Organization) rules, the conversion of corn, sugar, and soybeans to ethanol and other energy sources becomes more attractive. New extraction methods are making the technology more efficient, and crude oil prices at $60 per barrel are fundamentally changing the economics of biomass energy conversion. A large switch by key export food and feed suppliers, such as the United States and Brazil, to biofuels could fundamentally alter export prices, and hence the world food and feed situation. A team of FSE researchers will assess the true costs of these conversions.

The FSE program recently received a grant through the Presidential Fund for Innovation in International Studies to initiate new interdisciplinary research activities. One such project links ongoing research at Stanford on the environmental and resource costs of industrial livestock production and trade to assess the extent and rate of Brazil's rainforest destruction for soybean production. "Tens of millions of hectares of native grassland and rainforest are currently being cleared for soybean production to supply the global industrial livestock sector," says Naylor. A significant share of Brazil's soybeans is being shipped to China, where rapid income growth is fueling tremendous increases in meat consumption."

A team of remote-sensing experts, ecologists, agronomists, and economists will be looking at the ecological effects on the landscape through biogeochemical changes and biodiversity loss, the impacts of land clearing on the regional hydrologic cycle and climate change, the economic patterns of trade, and the role of policies to achieve an appropriate balance between agricultural commodity trade, production practices, and conservation in Brazil's rainforest states.

"I'm extremely pleased to see the rapid growth of FSE and am encouraged by the recent support provided through the Presidential Fund for Innovation in International Studies," states Naylor. "It enables the program to engage faculty members from economics, political science, biology, civil and environmental engineering, earth sciences, and medicine-as well as graduate students throughout the university-in a set of collaborative research activities that could significantly improve human well-being and the quality of the environment."

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