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This report provides one of the first coherent, readable narratives of the Fukushima nuclear disaster—what happened in the first few days. It is based on new sources available in Japanese and National Diet testimonies, and is an objective overview of events as they unfolded, rather than an ideologically positioned effort of advocacy. The report goes on to analyze the institutional and governance aspects of Japan’s nuclear oversight, highlighting the fundamental problems that surfaced during the disaster that stem from deeper structural issues. The report also draws upon expertise from a conference held at Stanford University in February 2012 to analyze the politics and industry structure of Japan’s electric power sector, making concrete recommendations for reorganizing the power industry and government oversight structure.

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Shorenstein APARC Working Paper Series
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Kenji E. Kushida
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As the Soviet Union was dying in December 1991, a quiet collaboration between Russian and American scientists was being born. The Russians were bankrupt, the KGB was in disarray and nuclear scientist Siegfried S. Hecker – at the time director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory – was alarmed as tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and much of the more than 1,000 tons of fissile materials across the broken Soviet states stood poorly protected.

Thousands of Soviet scientists were suddenly in limbo and President George H.W. Bush worried some might turn to Iran or Iraq to sell their nuclear knowledge. Washington suddenly found itself more threatened by Russia’s weakness than its strengths. That recognition drove U.S. Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar to launch cooperative threat reduction legislation, subsequently known as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Act.

Secretary of Energy Admiral James Watkins echoed President Bush’s concern when he called a meeting in December 1991 with Hecker, today the co-director of Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC).

“I told him, I’ve been trying to get us together with the Russians for several years,” Hecker said. “Why don’t we go to their lab directors and say, `What’s it going to take to keep your guys home and from selling their knowledge someplace else?’”

Several weeks later, in February 1992, Hecker was on a tarmac in the once-secret Russian nuclear city of Sarov, shaking hands with Yuli Khariton. The Soviet physicist was the chief designer of Russia’s atomic bomb – their Robert Oppenheimer, creator of our nuclear bomb and first director of the Los Alamos laboratory in New Mexico.

Hecker would go on to make 44 trips to Russia in the name of nuclear nonproliferation and cooperation. His most recent was last month with CISAC researchers Peter Davis and Niko Milonopoulos and a dozen Americans scientists, to commemorate 20 years of laboratory-to-laboratory cooperation. They hosted a conference with their Russian counterparts in Sarov, the Russian version of Los Alamos 300 miles east of Moscow.

Some 100 Americans and Russians attended various legs of the conference, including the scientific directors of the three Russian nuclear weapons laboratories: Rady Ilkaev, Evgeny Avrorin and Yuri Barmakov. The American delegation included Jeffery Richardson, CISAC affiliate and former head of chemistry and proliferation prevention at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; James W. Toevs, former project leader for the Nuclear Cities Initiatives at Los Alamos; and K. David Nokes, former vice president of national security and arms control at Sandia National Laboratory. 


CISAC Co-director Siegfried Hecker and
Rady Ilkaev, a scientific director within
the Russian Federal Nuclear Center,
swap gifts during their April 2012
conference in Sarov, Russia.

Hecker is determined to reignite the collaboration efforts, which have diminished dramatically in the last decade due to stark differences at the highest levels of our governments and because the Russian secret service agency has again tightened their grip on the nuclear complex.

“The 1990s were the heydays for us,” he said. “The scientists played a major role; we actually pushed the envelope on what we could do cooperatively. We worked well with the Russians.”

The U.S. Department of Energy supported and financed the joint efforts of the American and Russian nuclear laboratories to secure and safeguard Russian nuclear facilities and materials. They enlisted the help of civilian institutes to make urgent security upgrades at their nuclear facilities and the Americans brought the Russians to the U.S. nuclear sites – including the plutonium facility at Los Alamos – to let them see firsthand how Americans handled protection, control and accounting of nuclear material.

“The Sandia National Laboratories actually helped provide Kevlar blankets to protect Russian nuclear weapons while they were transporting them so that in case somebody shot at them, you didn’t get a mushroom cloud,” Hecker recalled.

Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin came to power for the first time in 2000 and the Federal Security Service – formerly the KGB – started tightening the screws. U.S. visas became difficult to obtain after the 9/11 terrorist attacks ratcheted up consular bureaucracy. Scientists on both sides began to feel less welcome at the labs and sites they had readily visited for a decade.

During his April trip, Hecker felt as if he were under house arrest in the worst security squeeze he’d seen in the 20 years of visiting Russia. He was followed by a security agent when he jogged, until the mud along the river became too deep for the agent’s shiny black shoes; Davis and Milonopoulos had their access denied at the last minute and were not allowed to enter Sarov to attend the three-day portion of the conference.

Many lab-to-lab cooperative agreements were allowed to expire by the Russian side in the last decade; even collaborations on fundamental research have been restricted and there is little nuclear power engineering cooperation. Worst of all, Hecker said, joint efforts to battle nuclear terrorism and compare means by which each side keeps its nuclear warheads safe and secure without nuclear testing are now virtually nonexistent.

“We ought to be working together, for heavens sake,” he said. “We’re not going to terrorize each other; we’ve got to keep the terrorists away from the rest of the world. We just have to get back to working together.”

 
 
CISAC researchers Peter Davis, left, and Niko Milonopoulous, right, with the U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul at the ambassador's residence in Moscow in April 2012.

Their first step will be to compile the proceedings of the meetings with their Russian counterparts in Sarov, Nizhny Novgorod and Moscow. The document will be provided to the U.S. Department of Energy and policymakers in the Obama administration, as well as the three current U.S. nuclear lab directors, who are making their first joint visit to Russia in June. Hecker said his Russian counterparts are trying to coax Moscow into jumpstarting the collaboration efforts while wooing a new generation of nuclear scientists to the table.

Hecker, along with two former Russian nuclear weapons lab directors, is working on a book to document 20 years of nuclear collaboration between Russian and American nuclear scientists.

“The book is going to do a thorough job of looking at: What we did, why did it matter, what conditions made it possible and, then, what lessons were learned that might allow us to reestablish the relationship,” he said.

Hecker had another mission on his recent trip to Sarov. He wanted to reassure his Russian counterparts that their personal relationships truly mattered.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, scientists in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus were confronted with a new reality: They went from lives of privilege to poverty. Programs launched by the U.S. Departments of State and Energy brought financial support to Russia’s closed nuclear cities, showed the Russian nuclear workers that they had a future in non-weapons research – and that someone cared about their well-being.

“One thing that came out, talk after talk during this trip, was how important the social relationships were between the scientists; how they are absolutely crucial,” Hecker said. Those little-known relationships – many of which became enduring friendships that celebrate marriages and grandchildren – led to significant steps in the U.S.-Russian nuclear threat reduction program.

President Ronald Reagan used one of his signature phrases, “Trust, but verify,” when he and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987, eliminating nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with intermediate ranges. The phrase was taken from an old Russian proverb.

A year later, that proverb was put in effect with Hecker’s hand on the nuclear button at the Nevada test site for the Joint Verification Experiment.

“In August of ’88, the Soviets were at our test sites in Nevada and I was in the control room, essentially pushing the button to blow up one of our nuclear devices down hole, while the Russians had a cable that ran down the hole with which they were going to measure the magnitude of the nuclear explosion,” Hecker said. The following month, American scientists were in Russia to do the same.

“So I was sitting there in our control room, with the Russians right across the table from me,” he recalls. “That introduced us to the Russian nuclear scientists for the first time. You know what we said? These guys are just like us. They just want to do exactly the same thing for their country that we were doing for ours: keep their country safe and secure. And that started the process of working together.”

Today, the Russian proverb made famous by an American president could be turned on its head if the Russian-American nuclear collaboration is allowed to thrive: Verify through Trust.

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This presentation will describe the NRC’s mission, the traditional approach to regulation of nuclear power facilities, and the NRC’s more recent use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in regulation. The presentation will also explore uncertainties in PRA and the role they play in NRC decision making.


About the speaker: The Honorable George Apostolakis was sworn in as a Commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) on April 23, 2010, to a term ending on June 30, 2014.


Dr. Apostolakis has had a distinguished career as an engineer, professor and risk analyst. Before joining the NRC, he was a professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering and a professor of Engineering Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He was also a member and former Chairman of the statutory Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards of the NRC.


In 2007, Dr. Apostolakis was elected to the National Academy of Engineering for "innovations in the theory and practice of probabilistic risk assessment and risk management." He has served as the Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal Reliability Engineering and System Safety and is the founder of the International Conferences on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management. He received the Tommy Thompson Award for his contributions to improvement of reactor safety in 1999 and the Arthur Holly Compton Award in Education in 2005 from the American Nuclear Society.


Dr. Apostolakis is an internationally recognized expert in risk assessment. He has published more than 120 papers in technical journals and has made numerous presentations at national and international conferences. He has edited or co-edited eight books and conference proceedings and has participated in many probabilistic risk assessment courses and reviews.


Dr. Apostolakis received his diploma in electrical engineering from the National Technical University in Athens, Greece in 1969. He earned a master's degree in engineering science in 1970 and a Ph.D. in engineering science and applied mathematics in 1973, both from the California Institute of Technology.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

George Apostolakis Commissioner Speaker Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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About the Topic: Japan’s March 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake and tsunami led to core damage in three reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. This presentation will describe both the short-term and long-term actions of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to implement lessons learned from the Fukushima accident and will highlight Commissioner Apostolakis’ views on the accident. The presentation will also describe the findings of the Commissioner’s Risk Management Task Force chartered to develop a strategic vision and options for adopting a more comprehensive and holistic risk-informed, performance-based regulatory approach for the NRC.

 

About the Speaker: George Apostolakis was sworn in as a Commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) on April 23, 2010, to a term ending on June 30, 2014. 

Dr. Apostolakis has had a distinguished career as an engineer, professor and risk analyst. Before joining the NRC, he was a professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering and a professor of Engineering Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  He was also a member and former Chairman of the statutory Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards of the NRC. In 2007, he was elected to the National Academy of Engineering for "innovations in the theory and practice of probabilistic risk assessment and risk management." He received the Tommy Thompson Award for his contributions to improvement of reactor safety in 1999 and the Arthur Holly Compton Award in Education in 2005 from the American Nuclear Society.

CISAC Conference Room

George Apostolakis Commissioner of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Speaker
Seminars
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There are currently 60 nuclear reactors under construction worldwide with nearly half of these projects being built in China. There is no doubt that East Asia is emerging as a leader in the international nuclear community where China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) are playing major roles as a result of their aggressive new plant build programs. Both China and South Korea present very interesting case studies where the former is rapidly building up domestic expertise in nuclear construction while the latter has gone one step further in capitalizing successfully on a nuclear export business. Both countries have relied heavily on external commercial support in building up this expertise. In the case of South Korea, the “Koreanization” of nuclear power took place in the 1980’s and 1990’s, first with a large number of Western builds and ultimately a complete indigenization of pressurized water reactor technology through a technology transfer with Combustion Engineering. The Chinese domestic nuclear program has been largely influenced by Western vendors as well; however, there has been significantly less emphasis on exporting the technology up to now as they master the imported technologies for their domestic program. The recent AP1000 technology transfer between Westinghouse Electric Company and China has opened up unique transnational learning opportunities between the United States and China where the lessons learned building the first AP1000 plants in China will be shared with the two U.S. utilities now embarking on new plant construction at the Vogtle and V.C. Summer sites, in Georgia and South Carolina, respectively. This talk will review both the historical experiences of exporting nuclear technology to the ROK and China, as well as the progress being made by these countries in absorbing the technology. Further, the AP1000 passive plant technology will be summarized as an example of the general trend for future designs in response to the reactor accidents at Fukushima Dai-ichi in March 2011. Finally, the advanced construction techniques being used to build AP1000 plants in both the U.S. and China will be highlighted along with their benefits in delivering new plants on schedule.


About the speaker: Dr Matzie is the former Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer for Westinghouse Electric Company and was responsible for all Westinghouse research and development undertakings and advanced nuclear plant development. He is also on the Board of PBMR Pty Ltd. and Chairman of the Board Technical Committee. In that role, he assures proper oversight of the design, safety, licensing, research and development, and quality aspects of the PBMR enterprise.

Previously, Dr Matzie was responsible for the development, licensing, detailed engineering, project management, and component manufacturing of new Westinghouse light water reactors and was also the Executive in charge of Westinghouse replacement steam generator projects and dry spent-fuel-canister fabrication projects. He became a Senior Vice President in 2000, when Westinghouse purchased the nuclear businesses of ABB. His career has been devoted primarily to the development of advanced nuclear systems and advanced fuel cycles, and he is the author of more than 120 technical papers and reports on these subjects.

CISAC Conference Room

Regis Matzie Chief Technology Officer (Former) Speaker Westinghouse Electric Corporation
Seminars

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

 

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Study for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

 

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.  

 

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.


Philippines Conference Room

Kazuma Fukai Speaker Kansai Electric Power Company
Katsunori Hirano Speaker Shizuoka Prefectural Government
Yuji Kamimai Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
Masami Miyashita Speaker Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

 

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Sutdy for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

 

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.

 

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.


Philippines Conference Room

Kazuma Fukai Speaker Kansai Electric Power Company
Katsunori Hirano Speaker Shizuoka Prefectural Government
Yuji Kamimai Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
Masami Miyashita Speaker Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
Seminars
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The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation has awarded Stanford’s CISAC a $2.45 million grant to support its mission to reduce the dangers of nuclear weapons. The grant will help CISAC train future nuclear security policy experts and work on projects to significantly decrease the danger of fissile materials being stolen or diverted from Russia's nuclear complex. It will also encourage cooperation between U.S. and Chinese scientists to enhance security in Chinese military and civilian nuclear programs.

“Despite all the attention given to nuclear hot spots like Iran and North Korea, interest in and action on improving nuclear safety and security remains tepid worldwide," said Robert Gallucci, President of the MacArthur Foundation. "MacArthur's grant-making aims to support the people and institutions that can provide us with the research and know-how needed to keep nuclear energy safe and fissile materials out of dangerous hands."

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