Coal
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World natural gas consumption is projected to more than double by 2030 -- surpassing coal as the world's #2 energy resource. Plentiful reserves exist but surplus gas supplies are far removed from future demand centers -- necessitating major investments in gas transport infrastructures. The growing importance of natural gas imports to modern economies will force new thinking about energy security.

The two-year collaborative study between Stanford PESD and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University includes seven historical case studies of built cross-border gas trade projects and economic modeling of global natural gas markets. The project aims to assess key factors affecting decision-making in large gas infrastructure investments and to then utilize these results to inform analysis of prospective developments in the world gas trade.

The seminar serves as a prelude to the Geopolitics of Gas Conference co-hosted by the Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University to be held May 26-27, 2004 in Houston, Texas.

Bishop Auditorium, Graduate School of Business

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
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Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
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David G. Victor Director Program on Energy and Sustainable Development

Encina Hall E419-B
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-1714 (650) 724-1717
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Research Fellow
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Mark H. Hayes was recently a Research Fellow with the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD). He lead PESD's research on global natural gas markets, including studies of the growing trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the future for gas demand growth in China.

Dr. Hayes has developed models to analyze the impact of growing LNG imports on U.S. and European gas markets with special attention to seasonality and the opportunity for arbitrage using LNG ships and regasification capacity. From 2002 to 2005, Dr. Hayes managed the Geopolitics of Natural Gas Project, a study of critical political and financial factors affecting investment in cross-border gas trade projects. The study culminated in an edited book volume published by Cambridge University Press.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Mark worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York City. He was a member of the Global Power and Utilities Group, where he was involved in mergers and acquisitions, financing and corporate restructuring.

In 2006 he completed his Ph.D. in the Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources at Stanford University. After completing his Ph.D. at Stanford, Mark has taken a position at RREEF Infrastructure Investments, San Francisco, CA. Mark also has a B.A. in Geology from Colgate University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford. From 1999 to 2002 he served on the Board of Trustees of Colgate University.

Mark H. Hayes Research Fellow Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Seminars
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The study examines the impact of the power sector reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level in India through a case study of the state of Gujarat. The state has been selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that are not captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that the reforms have led to the emergence of various ownership structures with associated changes in fuel mix and technology. There has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation with reduction in carbon intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained are then used for construction of a baseline for the state, which is then projected up to the year 2010. The study reports a considerable decline in the baseline, which is expected to touch 0.18 Kg per kWh in 2010.. With the projected growth in the share of imported coal and natural gas, the dominance of domestic coal based generation is projected to decline and the state is expected to proceed along a path of declining carbon intensities.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #21
Authors
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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The study traces the pattern of development of the electricity sector in India through a case study of the state of Andhra Pradesh. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level. The state is selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that may not be captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that there has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation from coal and gas. However, generation from clean sources like hydro has been declining. This changing generation mix has led to a steady increase in emission intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained is used for construction of a baseline for the state. The study reports an increase in the baseline intensity and explores the causes for such an increase.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #20
Authors
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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September's attacks initiated a new era of world politics. As Washington scrambles to build its antiterror coalition, it may be tempted to overlook the antidemocratic excesses of its partners. But this would be a mistake, especially when it comes to Russia. Fortunately, recent poll data reveal an unlikely American ally: the Russian masses, who have grown fiercely democratic and will resist any slide toward autocracy.

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Foreign Affairs
Authors
Michael A. McFaul
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The history of Indian power sector is abound with myths like those that envisioned the big projects as "temples of modern India" some fifty years ago, to the recent characterization of the sector as a "millstone" hindering economic development. The dynamics of the sector provides a classic case of the debate on the role of state versus that of the market in developing economies. Lately, economic realism has led to reforms for developing competitive electricity market. Under the changing dynamics, long-term policy needs to be based on some robust insights. In this talk, the speaker will present an analysis of Indian power sector under different scenarios that take into account the "success" of reforms, technology transfer regimes and local and global environmental concerns. Some insights will be offered vis-?-vis the well known debates on fossil energy options (coal versus gas), decentralization versus centralization, renewable and nuclear technologies, and the extent of linkage between local and global environmental policies. Discussion will also address the status of reforms and trends. P.R. Shukla is a Professor with the Public Systems Group at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. He obtained Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1979. He has been a consultant to the Government of India and several national and international organizations. He is a leading expert on developing country policy, especially in the areas of energy, environment and technology. He is a lead author of several international reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). He is a co-author of eight books and numerous publications in reputed international journals and invited articles in books and proceedings.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

P.R. Shukla Professor of Public Systems Speaker Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
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