"Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor, we would know much of the economics that really matters. Most of the world's poor people earn their living from agriculture, so if we knew the economics of agriculture, we would know much of the economics of being poor." - Theodore W. Schultz, accepting the Nobel Prize in Economics, December 8, 1979
More than thirty years ago, Theodore W. Schultz won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on economic development and agriculture in developing countries. Last week, Cornell University Professor Christopher Barrett told Stanford students, faculty, and community members that Schultz's ideas suggest a powerful approach to breaking persistent cycles of poverty in modern rural Africa.
Barrett, a Professor of Applied Economics and Management and an expert in poverty and international development, visited the Stanford campus for a two-hour symposium entitled "Assisting the Escape from Persistent Ultra-Poverty in Rural Africa." He described the economics of poverty and agriculture in rural Africa as a series of downward spirals in environmental and human health.
The struggle to survive on insufficient resources, he explained, leads to disease and degradation that result in still deeper poverty. Escaping this cycle requires an influx of assets - a "lump of starting capital" in both private and public goods - that Barrett said the international community can provide.
"It takes money to make money," Barrett said. "Asset holdings, and their productivity through technology and markets, matter enormously."
When African farmers and pastoralists slip below a certain threshold of asset poverty, Barrett explained, they face negative feedbacks that set off a steep decline.
For example, a farmer who cultivates the same tiny plot of land year after year depletes soil nutrients to the point where even heavy fertilizer applications cannot revive the crop. Similarly, a pastoral family that begins with a small herd may become sedentary if they are unable to provide for the elderly and infirm while keeping their animals on the move. Stuck in one place, the herd exhausts local resources, and animals and humans alike suffer the health consequences of insufficient food and water.
A farmer who begins with plenty of land can sustain higher yields and invest surplus profits in education, health care, better equipment and still more land. But for the small farmer, incentives to invest in a better future are low, because the consequences of losing even a little income - an accelerated decline toward deeper poverty - are so severe.
Subsistence activity takes precedence, and when bad weather or disease strikes, the results are devastating. Limited access to credit, technology, and markets; weak government; and a harsh physical landscape make it still more difficult for rural Africans to invest in productive assets and recover from chance shocks.
These negative feedbacks and perverse incentives, Barrett said, make African poverty uniquely persistent.
While poor families in the developed world usually experience brief deprivation as a result of job loss or another isolated event, ultra-poor families in rural Africa have exhausted their land, livestock, and other productive assets. Without the means to restore natural and human capital, they may face a lifetime of poverty.
"In the US, poverty, while distressingly widespread, is a short-term phenomenon," Barrett noted. ""It is qualitatively and ethically different to talk about people who have very little hope of leaving poverty."
But Barrett said that the next generation of rural Africans has reason to be hopeful. While there is no one-size-fits-all approach, targeted investment could improve the outlook for many poor African nations. Barrett cited a generation of successful poverty relief efforts in Asia, where ultra-poverty rates in some countries have fallen from the high teens to less than five percent.
"East and Southeast Asia were at least as grim a generation ago as Africa is today," Barrett emphasized. "We know from the historical record that the world can move a lot of people out of poverty very quickly."
Citing Schultz's Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Barrett suggested that the international community focus first on reversing the cycles of decline that have pushed so many African farmers into meager subsistence agriculture.
Farm output, he said, universally impacts the rural poor. When output increases, poor farmers gain directly by selling their surplus. The extra supply also keeps local food prices low, benefiting the vast majority of rural Africans who consume more food than they produce.
Barrett described several possible "entry points" to stimulate agricultural productivity, including direct land and livestock grants, organized provision of rural education and health care, and renewed commitment to African crop research.
Private entrepreneurs, he said, are particularly well situated to invest in the technology and infrastructure needed to open rural markets, support soil and water conservation, and improve communication between buyers and sellers.
Barrett said that relief efforts should ultimately turn their attention to moving rural Africans out of agriculture. High rural population densities have compressed average farm sizes to a fraction of a hectare, he explained, making farming an unsustainable enterprise. More and more rural Africans are suffering the consequences of trying to do too much with too little.
"They find farming hard work," Barrett said, "and they'd like their kids to be able to find something else to do."
Barrett already sees a brighter future for those farmers and their children. "With governments and private investors already increasing their commitments to agriculture and rural development in Africa," he said, "I firmly believe we are in the early stages of being on the way."
The Stanford Students for Engagement and Activism in Microfinance (SEAM), together with the Program on Poverty and Governance at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, and the Center for Latin America Studies present, The Inside Scoop on Latin America's Largest Microfinance Institution. This event will feature Carlos Danel, Co-founder and Vice President of Compartamos Banco with an introduction by Professor Beatriz Magaloni of the Political Science department.
COMPARTAMOS BANCO was founded in 1990 as an NGO to help create opportunities for development and to allow micro-businesses to grow. In 2006, it established itself as a commercial bank, and in 2008 opened for public investment. Its growth has been unprecedented, currently serving more than 1.6 million clients. Compartamos has been recognized numerous times as one of the best companies to work for in Mexico. Moreover, it is the largest microfinance institution in Latin America.
CARLOS DANEL has been with Compartamos from the beginning as Co-Founder and is the Co-CEO. At the World Economic Forum in 2003, Danel was named a Young Global Leader. He serves on the board of Progresso Financiero, Vista Desarrollos, Grupo CP, and VIFAC A.C. He holds a degree in architecture from the the Universidad Iberoamericana and an MBA from the Instituto Panamericano de Alta Dirección de Empresas.
Dept. of Political Science
Encina Hall, Room 436
Stanford University,
Stanford, CA
(650) 724-5949
0
magaloni@stanford.edu
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations
Professor of Political Science
beatriz_magaloni_2024.jpg
MA, PhD
Beatriz Magaloni Magaloni is the Graham Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science. Magaloni is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where she holds affiliations with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). She is also a Stanford’s King Center for Global Development faculty affiliate. Magaloni has taught at Stanford University for over two decades.
She leads the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (Povgov). Founded by Magaloni in 2010, Povgov is one of Stanford University’s leading impact-driven knowledge production laboratories in the social sciences. Under her leadership, Povgov has innovated and advanced a host of cutting-edge research agendas to reduce violence and poverty and promote peace, security, and human rights.
Magaloni’s work has contributed to the study of authoritarian politics, poverty alleviation, indigenous governance, and, more recently, violence, crime, security institutions, and human rights. Her first book, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico (Cambridge University Press, 2006) is widely recognized as a seminal study in the field of comparative politics. It received the 2007 Leon Epstein Award for the Best Book published in the previous two years in the area of political parties and organizations, as well as the Best Book Award from the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization Section. Her second book The Politics of Poverty Relief: Strategies of Vote Buying and Social Policies in Mexico (with Alberto Diaz-Cayeros and Federico Estevez) (Cambridge University Press, 2016) explores how politics shapes poverty alleviation.
Magaloni’s work was published in leading journals, including the American Political Science Review,American Journal of Political Science, Criminology & Public Policy, World Development, Comparative Political Studies, Annual Review of Political Science, Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, Latin American Research Review, and others.
Magaloni received wide international acclaim for identifying innovative solutions for salient societal problems through impact-driven research. In 2023, she was named winner of the world-renowned Stockholm Prize in Criminology, considered an equivalent of the Nobel Prize in the field of criminology. The award recognized her extensive research on crime, policing, and human rights in Mexico and Brazil. Magaloni’s research production in this area was also recognized by the American Political Science Association, which named her recipient of the 2021 Heinz I. Eulau Award for the best article published in the American Political Science Review, the leading journal in the discipline.
She received her Ph.D. in political science from Duke University and holds a law degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.
This talk presents the prolonged deadly encounter between the Germans and Soviets in World War II as a clash between two different interpretive templates. In engaging the Soviet enemy, Nazi German leaders and soldiers employed visual frames of analysis, centering on physiognomy and racial makeup. As they fought back, the Soviets assessed the German invaders through a palpably textual register, focusing on their psychology and political consciousness. The talk shows how these templates worked in Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union and how they collided in the course of the war.
Talk Synopsis:
In this seminar Jochen Hellbeck explains the German-Soviet war as having been a battle of "images against words," a term that reflects both a clash of wartime ideologies and the different choices of media used to express these ideologies. Germany, Hellbeck explains, relied heavily on visual media, using videos and photos as propaganda, while the Soviets used written materials to inspire their soldiers and citizens and to demoralize Germans. Hellbeck focuses on the battle of Stalingrad, which involved a long standoff and extended exposure between the two sides.
The Germans used multimedia, as well as strong visual imagery in written materials, to portray the battle as a conquest of an inferior race and a vast landscape available for the taking. A compilation of German soldiers' reports from the Eastern front in July 1941, and the 1942 war diary of a German journalist embedded with troops in Stalingrad, use descriptive imagery to paint Soviets as mute and beastly and Germans as war heroes full of vitality. Letters from German officials employed vivid language of the landscape, with repeated references to art as representations of German culture and greatness. Wartime photography by German soldiers, many of whom were amateur photographers, was common. The German use of visual media is exemplified by "Soviet Paradise," a 1942 short film made to discredit the Soviet Union's campaign of print propaganda. The film, which employed sophisticated cinematography techniques and very little commentary, was made into an exhibit in Berlin during the summer of 1942 and was visited by 1 million people.
In contrast, the Soviets did not come close to the amount of investment the Germans made in wartime multimedia. Soviet soldiers were forbidden from keeping photos, and only officers could occasionally take them, in the rare event they had access to cameras. Instead, Hellbeck finds ample written records of the Soviet wartime experience. The Soviet military leadership commissioned a war history and invested heavily in the work of Soviet writers and historians, rather than photographers or film crews, to document events on the front lines.
Hellbeck’s presentation also includes analysis of the war records of prominent military personnel on both sides, as well as a review of the sources he used in his research, and his perceptions of how the Germans and Soviets interpreted each other’s wartime records. The next step in Hellbeck's research project will involve comparing techniques used in German and Soviet news film chronicles.
A discussion period following the talk addressed such questions as: did Germans and Soviets employ the same strategies in their military engagements with other countries? Why is there so much portrayal of Soviet POWS in Germany, and so little of German POWs in the Soviet Union? How was the defeat at Stalingrad represented by the Germans and by the Soviets? How did the strategies resonant with the respective sides?
About the Speaker:
Jochen Hellbeck is Associate Professor in the Department of History at Rutgers University. He is the author of Revolution On My Mind: Writing a Diary under Stalin (Harvard, 2006), and is currently writing a book about the clash and the entanglements of Germans and Soviets in the battle of Stalingrad.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Jochen Hellbeck
Associate Professor, History
Speaker
Rutgers University
The Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University is pleased to announce the 2012 class of Senior Honors Students. This marked the first year that CDDRL is officially an interdisciplinary honors program, allowing the Center to reach beyond the traditional international relations discipline and recruit students from computer science, economics, political science, history, and beyond.
The 2012 class is composed of 12 remarkable juniors with a global footprint and social conscious, who are interested in undertaking significant research in areas examining civil society in Sudan, Uganda's emerging oil economy, technology's impact on democracy, and transnational justice, among others. This diverse cohort was selected from among a competitive pool of applicants for the opportunity to join the CDDRL scholarly community for the 2011-12 academic year.
Honors students will spend four quarters participating in research seminars to refine their proposed thesis topic, while working in consultation with a CDDRL faculty advisor to supervise their project. In September, the group will travel to Washington DC for honors college where they will visit leading government and development organizations to witness policymaking in practice and consult with key decision-makers.
Please join CDDRL in congratulating the 2012 Senior Honors students and welcoming them to the Center.
Below are profiles of our 12 honors students highlighting their academic interests, what brought them to apply to CDDRL, and some fun facts.
Mitul Bhat
Mitul Bhat
Major: Economics, International Relations
Hometown: New Delhi
Perspective thesis topic: Relationship between income inequality and corruption in Latin America
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? I was lucky enough to grow up in several different countries, which I think gave me a very real awareness of how different economic development is across and even within countries. I want to better understand why the discrepancies exist and what can be done to help the people who suffer most from global inequity. I recognize that this is a multifaceted issue, with obstacles and potential solutions in government, civil society, the business sector, and elsewhere, and this is why I am interested in the combined field of Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? I am drawn to the interdisciplinary nature of the Center -- an issue like development, in which I am particularly interested, cannot be solved through Political Science or Economics methods alone and so I can learn about the topic in a more well-balanced way. The chance to interact with professors and fellow students who are engaged in interesting work across all aspects of the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law, appeals to me as well.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Work in the field of development economics
Fun fact about yourself: I have never broken a bone.
Shadi Bushra
Shadi Bushra
Major: International Relations/ Human Biology
Hometown: Khartoum, Sudan; Savage, MN
Perspective thesis topic: How can youth movements in Sudan promote democracy and government accountability?
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? The process of democratization is one of the most studied and least uniform among any of political science's many subfields. It has been proven to be correlated with greater welfare, higher standards of living, peace and more responsive government. Yet despite these documented effects, a large portion of the world is living under faux-democratic or authoritarian governments.
More personally, my own family left Sudan in the early years of the Bashir regime because my father was a political activist, although we return for summers. Having seen the first-hand effects of such repression on individuals and communities I am very interested in how democracy can be spread to those places where it is least likely. I think my country of Sudan is a good place to start.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? CDDRL boasts some of the greatest scholars in the field of democracy. It will be an honor and a pleasure to tap the Center's resources and minds to further my own understanding and research in the field.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Perhaps working in journalism in Africa or the Middle East. Other options include working with an NGO or the UN in the aforementioned regions.
Fun fact about yourself: I love watching and practicing boxing, Brazilian jiu-jitsu and mixed martial arts. I'm also a budding photography enthusiast.
Colin Casey
Colin Casey
Major: Political Science
Hometown: Annapolis, Maryland
Perspective thesis topic: Political Economy of Conflict and Transition in Sudan
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law?Throughout my time at Stanford I have been moved by both the remarkable successes and dramatic failures of economic development and political transformation across the globe. My work both inside and outside the classroom has forced me to confront the fact that today newspapers are filled with stories of both healthy political discourse and nation-sweeping political upheaval, of civil stability and civil war, of fabulous wealth and stunning poverty. The field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law has captivated my interest, therefore, not only because it is intellectually challenging but also because the questions that define it are critical to the well-being of people all over the world. Having the chance to explore these questions with the CDDRL program is an honor and a privilege.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? The opportunity to write an honors thesis with at CDDRL is an opportunity to explore, to engage, and to grapple. It is an opportunity to build upon the work I have done and to deepen my understanding of the work I will do. It is an opportunity to apply my love for critical thinking and problem solving, to journey further into the fascinating complexities of the developing world, and to face off with the awesome challenges of political and economic transformation. And because it provides me the privilege of utilizing extensive resources, working hands-on with leaders of the academic world, and sharing thoughts and theories on issues of global importance with other smart and passionate students, it is an opportunity that thrills me.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: After I graduate, I hope to work in the international development field. There are a number of organizations that are finding new and creative ways to stimulate emerging markets through investment and micro-finance, but the industry as a whole still suffers from structural inefficiencies, and there is great progress to be made both in terms of identifying viable and profitable enterprises and unleashing the enormous potential of the developing world.
Fun fact about yourself: Last summer, I rode my bike across the country from New Jersey to California to raise money for the Valentino Achak Deng Foundation, a San Francisco based organization that is building a school in Southern Sudan.
Nicholas DugdaleContent-Disposition: form-data; name="preferredphoto3"
1
Nicholas Dugdale
Nick Dugdale
Major: Political Science and Classics
Hometown: Corte Madera, CA
Perspective thesis topic: Tax Evasion in Greece (more specifically: what social, political, and economic factors promote widespread tax evasion, particularly in the Greek context)
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law?
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? CDDRL provides an amazing opportunity to work closely with the leading scholars in the field, as well as to collaborate with other students who share similar interests.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Work in the international development field for the UN or a similar organization
Fun fact about yourself: I am a competitive sailor and have represented the US at 3 world championships.
Roxana Gharegozlou
Roxana Gharegozlou
Roxana Gharegozlou
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Tehran, Iran/ Vancouver, Canada
Prospective thesis topic: Transitional Justice: Assessing the Impact of Truth Commissions
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? The range of salient issues that the field encompasses and its potential to break new ground in theory, practice, and policy formation. I am particularly interested in the linkages between human rights and governance.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? I am looking forward to being part of a global network of talented scholars and practitioners whose insights and experiences will be an invaluable resource as I move forward with my research into democracy, development, and the rule of law.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Fieldwork in human rights
Fun fact about yourself: I am originally from the Qashqa'i tribe of Iran.
Daniel Mattes
Daniel Mattes
Daniel Mattes
Major: International Relations (Minor in Modern Languages - Italian and Arabic)
Hometown: San Francisco, California
Perspective thesis topic: The International Criminal Court and Efforts at Localization of its Mission
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? My interests continue to center on the Middle East and Africa, two regions with the worst human rights records and most tragic histories of conflict, but ones that also offer clear opportunities for reform, growth, and inspirational transformation. The rule of law, most directly pertinent to my thesis topic, is and will continue to be a vital facet in encouraging domestic and global societies to respect the rights of their people. This field is filled with arduous challenges as well as tremendous opportunities that surface each day in the current events facing the world.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? The program at CDDRL offers a tremendous opportunity in the form of a smaller student group that is motivated for discussion, analysis, and research by the dynamic professors with whom they work, the great resources available to them by the Center, and their own personal desire to not only observe but also impact the world. I want a pragmatic and useful thesis that contributes to the creation of strong human rights protections and hope where there currently is none. CDDRL, its resources, and the faculty offer me such an opportunity.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I would love to spend some more time in Italy (following my six months in Florence), but even more, I want to travel around the Middle East and Africa, both for personal interest and for career/academic opportunities. After that, I’m open to any opportunity that comes my way – whether that is law or graduate school, a job, or even the Peace Corps.
Fun fact about yourself: I live in a house called the Enchanted Broccoli Forest.
Hava Mirell
Major: History and the Law
Hometown: Los Angeles, CA
Perspective thesis topic: The Impact of International Diplomatic Pressure on Zimbabwe
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? As a history major focusing on Southern Africa, I'm constantly studying successful and unsuccessful democracies, failed development projects, and the complete absence of the rule of law. After studying these topics for the past three years and spending six months in South Africa, I want to use the CDDRL Honors Program to finally understand from a political science perspective why it is that democracy has or has not succeeded in Southern Africa, why corruption is so prevalent, and how we can improve economic growth in the region.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? I'm excited to join the CDDRL community because of the incredible resources, especially the brilliant faculty, that the Center offers. Nowhere else on campus can you ask a question about governance in Zimbabwe and receive a response from one of the leading experts on this topic. Just the opportunity to talk to the CDDRL faculty, let alone actually work with them and have them as advisors, is unbelievable. I'm beyond excited for the upcoming year.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: International human rights lawyer
Fun fact about yourself: I've never seen The LIttle Mermaid.
Jack Mosbacher
Jack Mosbacher
Jack Mosbacher
Major: Political Science
Hometown: Woodside, CA
Perspective thesis topic: The Implications of Uganda's Emerging Oil Economy
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? I am most interested in the emphasis on policy-making and the constantly evolving scholarship in this very contemporary area of academia.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? I am so excited to have the opportunity to work one-on-one with the wonderful researchers in the CDDRL community and to be a part of the international effort to promote improved governance and substantive rule of law in some of the world's darkest places.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Chaplain in US Army.
Fun fact about yourself: I play on the baseball team at Stanford - but I also love musical theater and opera.
Jenna Nicholas
Jenna Nicholas
Jenna Nicholas
Major: International Relations
Hometown: London
Perspective thesis topic: What is the genesis, evolution and apparent trajectory of Chinese philanthropy, non-profits and social enterprise in China?
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? I think that often democracy, development and the rule of law are considered as independent entities but they are deeply interconnected with one another. As we promote any one of them, it is essential that we consider the causal effects on the other two.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? I am really excited about engaging with people who are all working on different areas of study and are willing and interested to share their research with each other. As we embark on trying to understand the complexities of democracy, development and the rule of law, it is fascinating to reflect upon cross-disciplinary approaches to issues, innovation of thoughts and ideas whilst at the same time appreciating consensus and respecting divergence of views.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: I am very interested in the integration of business with societal issues which leads to fields such as philanthro-capitalism, social entrepreneurship, micro-finance and venture philanthropy. I am particularly interested in models of organization which facilitate cooperative research and develop metrics of success in the developmental field. I intend to find a role for myself somewhere at the forefront of creative development which will have an impact on the world.
Fun fact about yourself: When I was 12 years old, I spoke on behalf of the Baha’i faith on the importance of protecting the environment for Commonwealth Day at Westminster Abbey. Before the event I was talking to Desmond Tutu and he gave me a high five for being cheeky! Recently I met him again at the Skoll World Forum and reminded him of our last encounter. This time he gave me two high fives and a hug!
Daniel Ong
Daniel Ong
Daniel Ong
Major: Computer Science
Hometown: Facebook
Physical Hometown: Singapore
Perspective thesis topic: How technology (mobile phones, email, twitter/fb) is changing the way social consciousness is formed- and how that affects democratic processes.
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? I may be majoring in a very different field, but the issues and questions that DDRL constantly visits are ones which come up constantly in my mind. If there was more time, I would have double majored in Political Science and CS- but right now, I'm focused on learning all I can and seeing how I can use technology to make things better.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? The conversations, and the chance to bounce ideas and thoughts off people who have so much domain knowledge in these areas. Just the chance to learn from them, and refine my ideas is invaluable in itself.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Entrepreneur-in-Government, or startup
Fun fact about yourself: I am a machine which turns coffee into code (and hopefully, a thesis paper)
Annamaria Prati
Annamaria Prati
Annamaria Prati
Major: International Relations
Hometown: Mountain View, California
Perspective thesis topic: United Nations Electoral Assistance
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? This field works to answer some of the most pertinent questions of our time and can have widespread implications for the greater world.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? It is a great community of scholars that is working on incredibly interesting projects. CDDRL has shown me that research does not mean looking down from an ivory tower, and I am looking forward to learning more.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: Going to grad school
Fun fact about yourself: I play the harp
Otis Reid
Otis Reid
Major: Public Policy and Economics
Hometown: Chapel Hill, NC
Perspective thesis topic: Regulatory Development and Stock Market Effectiveness in Ghana
What interests you about the field of Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law? Development is, in my opinion, the central challenge of our time. I'm very excited about having the chance to help contribute to our knowledge of this field and ultimately to help accelerate the development process, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Given the interconnections between development, governance, and accountability, being at a center that looks at all three is particularly interesting.
Why you are excited about joining the CDDRL community? Honestly, it was the T-shirt that really got me ("Democracy Never Looked So Good"). No, more seriously, I'm very excited to have a chance to build more relationships across the different disciplines of democracy, development, and governance and to see how research can help to drive policy.
Future aspiration post-Stanford: After Stanford, I want to enter the policy-making community around development. I'm interested in the intersection of development and security, so I'd ultimately love to have a position on the National Security Council helping to coordinate development policy. (Professor Jeremy Weinstein's current position on the NSC is a model for the type of position that I'd like to hold.)
Fun fact about yourself: I spent my seventh grade year living in Paris, France - the second most time I've spent outside the country is last summer, which I spent in Accra, Ghana.
A poor African farmer produces a little more corn than last year. He sells the surplus in a nearby urban market, and uses the money to purchase a shirt stitched by a local seamstress. With the bumper crop of corn, more and more farmers are interested in the seamstress' wares. The extra income allows her to buy better materials and a new sewing machine. Her business grows, and she begins to sell her work in bigger markets, further from her small village.
Years later, a poor farmer responds to an announcement for a job in a local clothing factory. The monthly wage is more than he currently makes in a year.
This is the vision that Dr. Ousmane Badiane, Africa Director for the International Food Policy Research Institute, presented to an audience of Stanford students and faculty on April 7. In a two-hour symposium entitled "Why Has Africa Been Slow in Developing its Agriculture?," Badiane outlined the steps he believes African nations must take to sustain economic growth and encourage high-value industrial development. Public investment in agriculture formed the backbone of his proposal.
Badiane said that although African nations have experienced unprecedented economic growth in the last 15 years, they still lag behind the developed world in economic sophistication. When workers leave agriculture for other sectors, he explained, the transition usually signifies economic progress.
But in Africa, too many farmers have abandoned their fields to peddle trinkets on the streets as part of a low-productivity service sector. They have left behind an underdeveloped and understaffed agricultural industry.
Agriculture has just plummeted too fast and too quickly in these countries," Badiane said. "Agriculture is not claiming the share of GDP and employment that it should."
When agriculture thrives, Badiane explained, economies grow and diversify. A wealthier rural population purchases products manufactured by urban entrepreneurs. Productive local farms buffer fluctuations in global crop output and food prices, improving security for urban industrial workers and reducing wage pressure on industrial employers.
"What agriculture needs is what industry needs," Badiane said, emphasizing that investment in one need not mean neglect of the other. "There are a lot of things you can do right by all the sectors at the same time."
In fact, according to Badiane, every $100 increase in agricultural output could result in up to a $130 increase in output from industry.
Badiane described one step that African governments have already taken to set the positive agriculture-industry feedback in motion. The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program is a cooperative effort by the African Union's 53 member nations to achieve ambitious goals for economic development and investment in agriculture by 2015.
Badiane commended the Program's unprecedented commitment to agricultural growth and its high standards for accountability, policy research, and performance review. He also praised the political momentum and unity that the initiative has generated within Africa, and the respect that it has earned in the international community.
However, Badiane admitted that agricultural growth in Africa cannot always proceed in harmony with other objectives. The need to finance agricultural research and development will put pressure on budgets for broader public welfare programs that Dr. Joel Samoff, a Stanford professor of African Studies, says most African nations simply cannot afford to de-fund.
"Most countries in Africa spend around $10 per person per year on health," says Samoff. "How do you reduce that?"
But Badiane suggested that governments may be able to address both agriculture and welfare simultaneously.
They will have to see how they can use social service budgets to sustain growth in agriculture," he said. "Look at health and education not as an entitlement, but as a tool to raise labor productivity."
Addressing the audience during a question-and-answer session following Badiane's talk, Harvard Development Professor, Emeritus, Peter Timmer drew attention to the scope of Badiane's objectives.
"You're talking about getting industry moving at the same time as you're getting agriculture moving," he noted, "and this is a very ambitious undertaking."
However, Timmer also indicated that he saw the seeds of success in Badiane's ideas. "I think we've just heard a quite profound analysis of Africa's agricultural problems, and its structural history," he said. "And a possible way forward."
Economic development is a
dynamic process in East and Southeast Asia, and one that is inextricably tied
to policy.
Two new groundbreaking political economy publications are now available from
the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC), and
a third is forthcoming in August.
Going Private in China: The Politics of Corporate Restructuring and System Reform, addresses many key
reform questions faced over the past two decades by China, as well as by Japan and
South Korea. Edited by Stanford China Program director Jean C. Oi, this volume
demonstrates the commonalities between three seemingly disparate political
economies. In addition, it sheds important new light on China's corporate
restructuring and also offers new perspectives on how we think about the
process of institutional change.
In Spending Without Taxation: FILP and the Politics of Public Finance in Japan, former Shorenstein Fellow Gene Park demonstrates how the Japanese government established and mobilized the
Fiscal Investment Loan Program (FILP), which drew on postal savings, public
pensions, and other funds to pay for its priorities and reduce demands on the
budget. Referring to FILP as a "distinctive postwar political bargain," he
posits that it has had lasting political and economic effects. Park's book not
only provides a close examination of FILP, but it also resolves key debates in
Japanese politics and demonstrates that governments can finance their
activities through financial mechanisms to allocate credit and investment.
The Institutional Imperative: The Politics of Equitable Development in Southeast Asia, by former Shorenstein
Fellow Erik Kuhonta, argues that the realization of equitable development
hinges heavily on strong institutions and on moderate policy and ideology. He
does so by exploring how Malaysia and Vietnam have had the requisite
institutional capacity and power to advance equitable development, while
Thailand and the Philippines, because of weaker institutions, have not achieved
the same levels of success.
More detailed descriptions about these insightful volumes, as well as reviews
and purchasing information, are available in the publications section of the
Shorenstein APARC website.
China's internet population will soon be double that of the US. China is home to a thriving market for social networking, games, e-commerce and other applications. While many individual and institutional investors in Chinese internet firms have profited from this growth, US internet firms themselves have struggled to gain a foothold. In fact a number of the most iconic internet firms in the US - including eBay, Yahoo and Google - have either pulled out of China or significantly scaled back their expectations for the market. Why? Censorship and government restrictions are often pointed to as the principal cause. Is this justified, or does it sometimes serve as a convenient excuse for other factors such as management missteps?
Certainly Google placed blame squarely with the Chinese government, citing the growing burden of censorship and sophisticated attacks on Gmail as principal motivations for its 2010 decision to scale back its China business. In his 45-minute talk, Clark discussed the implications of Google's move, both for the company (and the benefits to its main competitor Baidu) and for a new wave of US internet companies who are evaluating the market (such as Facebook) or who have recently entered the market (such as Groupon).
Clark explored the psyche driving the Chinese government's approach to internet restrictions and the varying degrees of sensitivity associated with online activities such as social networking, email/IM, games and e-commerce. He also discussed the risks faced by Chinese internet founders/CEOs as they balance the need to serve customers and the stock market with serving the requirements and expectations of the Chinese government and the Communist Party.
The talk reviewed in turn the experience of various US internet companies in China and how elusive the right formula for success can be.
Clark concluded with a discussion of the more positive of US individual and institutional investors. While competitive risks remain substantial, backing Chinese management teams to some extent insulates investors from the vagaries of government regulation. Chinese internet firms such as Baidu, Tencent and Taobao have emerged as some of the world's most highly visited and most valuable sites. Clark explored the questions of how sustainable are their positions in China, and whether these firms can demonstrate an ability to innovate and extend their reach beyond China's shores.
Duncan Clark and Marguerite Gong Hancock, associate director of SPRIE, are continuing their research into these and other topics as part of SPRIE's China 2.0: The Rise of a Digital Superpower project. SPRIE looks forward to the perspectives of upcoming invited speakers as the program keeps apace with the fast growing but unpredictable China internet market.
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Duncan Clark, visiting scholar at SPRIE, gave a talk at Stanford on "Life after Google? The way forward for US internet firms and investors in China" on April 13, 2011.
Platts Coal Trader International Vol. 11, Issue 67, Pages 5-6
Australia faces serious
challenges over the next 20 years in maintaining its hard-won place as a
leading coal exporting country and capturing new market share, according to a research
paper published by Stanford University's Program on Energy and Sustainable
Development April 5.
Following earlier papers on
China, Indonesia and South Africa's coal industries, the latest PESD paper,
entitled Australia's Black Coal Industry: Past Achievements and Future Challenges,
has been written by coal industry expert Bart Lucarelli.
The paper sketches the
development of Australia's export coal industry, from its shaky start in the
aftermath of the Second World War amid a glut of cheap oil, to the "phenomenal success
story" of today. The renaissance of
Australia's coal industry was assisted by the discovery of vast deposits of
high-quality coking coal and thermal coal in Queensland's Bowen Basin and the
Hunter Valley of New South Wales
respectively, along with new mining technologies and the economic expansions of
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, Lucarelli said.
During the Australian coal
industry's competitive phase - 1987 to 2003 - export coal prices were
relatively stable, but the growth rate of Australia's coal industry slowed as Indonesia
became a significant coal exporter. Since
2003, Australia's coal industry has been in a "volatile price phase," as export
coking and thermal coal prices have soared to record highs with the entry of
China and latterly India into the international seaborne market, while weather
events have affected supplies from coal exporting countries.
Looking to the next 20 years,
Lucarelli forecasts serious challenges to the preeminence of Australia's export
coal industry in the shape of infrastructure constraints, regulatory risks and
under-investment in railways and ports by government-owned companies. "The most pressing and immediate technical
challenge to the black coal industry of Australia is the shortage of rail and port infrastructure to
support its further growth," said Lucarelli in the research paper.
‘Chronic infrastructure shortages'
Governments in Queensland and New South Wales have proposed projects for expanding
their rail and port networks to support a significant increase in Australian
coal exports, which are forecast to grow to 540 million mt by 2020 from 240
million mt in 2010. "Part of the reason
that chronic infrastructure shortages are likely to persist has to do with the
type of technology being implemented - large rail and fixed land port systems,"
Lucarelli explained. Large port and rail
projects are required for economies of scale, but involve long lead times, high
upfront costs and complex regulatory clearances.
"A second reason for the chronic
shortage of infrastructure has been the reliance on state-owned entities to
make the necessary investments in the rail and port systems," Lucarelli said. Government-owned
rail and port companies tend to be less nimble and entrepreneurial in their
decision-making than the private sector, though some port and rail companies have
been privatized recently - most notably Queenslandbased rail company QR
National and the port of Brisbane. Regulatory
uncertainty stemming from the Australian government's stop-start policy on
curbing carbon emissions and its proposed Mineral Resource Rent Tax on
coal-mining profits are additional factors clouding the expansion of Australia's
coal industry. "Potential coal mining
projects most at risk due to regulatory uncertainty are the massive new steam
coal projects planned for the Galilee, Gunnedah and Surat basins," Lucarelli
said. Illustrating the potential for
expansion within Australia's coal industry, Lucarelli said that if only two of
the advancedstage projects in the Surat Basin in Queensland started production on
schedule, they could add 110 million mt/year of thermal coal exports by 2015. This is almost as much thermal coal as
Australia exported for the whole of 2008, at 115 million mt.
This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The talk was delivered April 7, 2011.
Structural change during most of the first 5 decades of post-independence Africa has been productivity-reducing. It has been driven by negative diversification reflected in labor migrating from the underperforming, yet higher-productivity agricultural sector into an oversized, lower-productivity service sector. In the aftermath of the failure of the first generation of import-substituting, inward-oriented industrialization efforts of the 1960s, African governments had all but given up on the search for practical industrial policies. Meanwhile, agriculture continued to be confronted with significant policy and institutional challenges, moving from an environment marked with heavy direct and implicit taxation into an era of the controversial structural adjustment policies that significantly curtailed services support to the sector. The combined effect resulted in stagnation in the manufacturing sector and forced specialization in the primary sector. The latter continued to be dominated by a struggling agricultural sector, which could not create enough employment to absorb an increasing labor force from a rapidly growing population. In addition, people started to migrate from villages to rural towns and urban centers and in the process swelled up the ranks of the under-employed in a fast-growing informal sector.
The economic recovery of the last 15 years provides strong hope that African countries are starting to turn the page. The focus now should be on sustaining and accelerating the recovery process, enacting policies to raise productivity in the agricultural and service sectors, and revitalize the modern industrial sector. A good start is the continent-wide effort under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) to encourage evidence-based policy planning and implementation and to increase investment in agriculture. However, it needs to be complemented with innovative industrialization policies to develop comparative advantage in higher-valued manufacturing goods. Future development strategies should seek to raise productivity in the service sector, which now has a large and growing share of low-productivity labor. The objective of these strategies should be to modernize production processes and to promote innovation in the production of domestic and household goods ranging from metalwork to wood and leather processing to a host of handicraft products.
Mitul Bhat
Shadi Bushra
Colin Casey
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Roxana Gharegozlou
Daniel Mattes
Jack Mosbacher
Jenna Nicholas
Daniel Ong
Annamaria Prati
Otis Reid
