Worldwide Inflation and International Monetary Reform: Exchange Rates or Interest Rates?
Ronald I. McKinnon is an applied economist whose primary interests are international economics and economic development-with strong secondary interests in transitional economies and fiscal federalism. Understanding financial institutions in general, and monetary institutions in particular, is central to his teaching and research. His interests range from the proper regulation of banks and financial markets in poorer countries to the historical evolution of global and regional monetary systems. His books, numerous articles in professional journals, and op-eds in the financial press such as The Economist, The Financial Times, and The Wall Street Journal reflect this range of interests.
Event Summary
Professor McKinnon first outlines the two major assumptions behind his paper (available on this page). First, that from December 2008 to August 2011, an inflow of "hot money" to emerging economies resulted from low U.S., European, and Japanese interest rates. Since then, the trend has reversed in the wake of the European banking crisis and bank lending has fallen. Second, the dollar remains the widespread central bank reserve currency despite instability in the U.S. system.
McKinnon voices concern about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's zero interest rate policy, calling it an overreaction to the crisis and a "lose-lose" policy as it deters investment in the U.S. while simultaneously spurring destabilizing hot money flows to surrounding emerging markets. These countries are in turn forced to suppress interest rates to mitigate the inflows, and to build up dollar reserves to keep exchange rates in check. The zero interest rate policy also stimulates carry trades in commodities by speculators.
The belief that under a zero interest rate regime, inflation will stimulate the economy by bringing real interest rates to negative levels, is misplaced in McKinnon's view. He argues that this simply adds uncertainty and interferes with efficient bank intermediation, as banks hold high excess reserves and tighten lending, causing a procyclical contraction as has been seen in the United States and Europe. He contrasts this approach with China, which stabilized its economy following the “dot-com” bust by expanding rather than contracting bank credit. He criticizes U.S. pressure on China to appreciate or float its currency, asserting that these strategies would fail to reduce China's trade surplus.
McKinnon suggests that international reforms should target interest rates instead of exchange rates. He recommends coordination between central banks of the major industrialized countries, especially the United States, European countries, and Japan - to collectively raise interest rates to approximately 2%. This would improve overall bank intermediation, and would benefit both central and peripheral countries in Europe.
A question and answer session following the talked addressed topics including: the likelihood of a coordinated effort between central banks; the potential effects of Kucinich's monetary reform proposal; the potential negative effects on real growth from carry trades, and whether this is a cause for concern; and the effects of bank borrowing trends in Europe on the European monetary system.
CISAC Conference Room
Ronald I. McKinnon
Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Ronald McKinnon is the William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics at Stanford University. Currently, he is researching trade and financial policy in less-developed countries, the transition from socialism in Asia and Eastern Europe, the foreign exchange market and U.S.-Japan trade disputes, European monetary unification and international monetary reform, and the economics of market-preserving federalism.
Recent books by McKinnon include The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control on the Transition to a Market Economy, 2nd edition (1993); The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates (1996); and Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan (with K. Ohno, 1997). Recent (1997) articles include "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The Overborrowing Syndrome" (with H. Pill); "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life after Death?" (1999); and "The Syndrome of the Ever-Higher Yen: American Mercantile Pressure on Japanese Monetary Policy" (with K. Ohno and K. Shirono, 1999). McKinnon teaches international trade and finance, economic development, money and banking, and financial control in developing and transitional socialist economies.
Deadly Investments: Large-scale Land Acquisitions in the Global South
FSE is co-sponsoring a special event headed by the ASSU Food Cabinet at Stanford University. All questions about the event should be directed to Isabella Akker (aiakker@stanford.edu).
Humanities Center
424 Santa Teresa St
Stanford University
Indonesia promotes its economic and political strengths
Sectoral Rent Extraction Possibilities and Bribery by Multinational Corporations: Evidence from Vietnam
Edmund J. Malesky will argue that openness to foreign investment can have differential effects on corruption, even within the same country and under the same domestic institutions over time. Rather than interpreting bribes solely as a coercive “tax” imposed on business activities, he allows for the possibility that firms may themselves be complicit in using bribes to enter protected sectors or gain access to lucrative procurement contracts. The propensity to bribe across sectors should vary with expected profitability related to investment restrictions. Thus, the linkage of foreign investment to corruption should increase dramatically as firms seek to enter restricted and uncompetitive sectors that offer higher rents. Malesky demonstrates this effect using a nationally representative survey of 10,000 foreign and domestic businesses in Vietnam. He also shows how the impact of domestic reforms and economic openness is affected by policies that restrict competition by limiting entry into a given sector.
Edmund Malesky is an associate professor of political science at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego. He has published in leading political science and economic journals, including the American Political Science Review and the Journal of Politics, and has been awarded the Harvard Academy Fellowship and Gabriel Almond Award for best dissertation in comparative politics. Malesky serves as the lead researcher for the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index and Cambodian Business Environment Scorecard.
For more information please see the event web page.
Graham Stuart Lounge
China's Financial Circles: Banks, Borrowers and the National Budget
**Due to space restrictions, this event has reached capacity and we will no longer be taking RSVPs. Please plan to arrive early as seating is on a first come, first serve basis.**
Since 2008 China's banks have made loans that approach 30% of GDP each year. The central bank has used a broader measure of credit, total societal financing, that suggests credit extended in 2011 may exceed 40% of the country's GDP. It is inevitable that such profligate lending will result in significant amounts of problem loans. The international market is well aware of this and Chinese bank shares have been hit hard for most of this year. How will these bad loans be managed? More importantly, why has the government once again used China's ostensibly commercial banks as if they were policy banks and what are the implications of this for China's economy going forward?
Carl E. Walter worked in China and its financial sector for the past 20 years and actively participated in many of the country’s financial reform efforts. While at Credit Suisse First Boston he played a major role in China’s groundbreaking first overseas IPO in 1992, as well as the first primary listing of a state-owned enterprise on the New York Stock Exchange in 1994. He was a member of senior management at China International Capital Corporation, China’s first and most successful joint venture investment bank where he supported a number of significant domestic and international stock and bond underwritings for major Chinese corporations. More recently at JPMorgan he was China Chief Operating Officer and Chief Executive Officer of its banking subsidiary. During this time Carl helped build a pioneering domestic security, risk and currency trading operation.
A long time resident of Beijing before his recent return to the United States, Carl is fluent in Mandarin and holds a PhD from Stanford University and a graduate certificate from Peking University. He is the co-author of Red Capitalism: the fragile financial foundations of China’s extraordinary rise as well as Privatizing China: inside China’s stock markets.
This event is part of the China's Looming Challenges series.
Philippines Conference Room
African Agricultural Productivity Growth and R&D in a Global Setting
This paper was prepared for Stanford University’s Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series, hosted by the Center on Food Security and the Environment, and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Relative to other regions of the world, most African economies are still heavily reliant on agriculture as a source of income and employment. And with more than 70 percent of the continent’s poor residing in rural areas, the production and productivity performance of African agriculture is pivotal to overall economic growth and the well-being of the poorest people in the region. After a dismal decade of output growth in the 1970s, the rate of aggregate agricultural output growth picked up for each of the subsequent three decades, and averaged 2.83 percent per year during the 2000s. With population growing at still record rates by world standards, per capita output grew much more slowly, just 0.36 percent per year during the past decade.
The productivity evidence is mixed and difficult to summarize. The rate of African crop yield growth (at least for the four crops given closer attention in this paper: corn, wheat, rice and soybean) is generally slower than elsewhere in the world, and in keeping with patterns seen elsewhere there has been a slowdown in the pace of average crop yield growth in Africa since around 1990. African land and labor productivity levels also generally lag those found elsewhere in the world, although aggregate land productivity in Africa outperformed that of Australia and New Zealand, another region of the world with challenging agricultural soils and heavy reliance on erratic (and often agriculturally marginal) weather. The reported rates of growth in multi-factor productivity (MFP) for African agriculture are also low by world standards, but the body of available evidence suggests that African MFP growth rates picked up in recent years. Unfortunately, the lack of reliable data and differences in the analytical details between the available studies makes it hard to reconcile the evidence and reach robust conclusions about MFP performance throughout sub-Saharan Africa.
Productivity levels and growth rates are affected by a host of factors, not least the technologies linking inputs to outputs and, by implication, the amount, nature and effectiveness of the innovative effort that develops and deploys these technologies. Although overall investments in African public agricultural research and development (R&D) have increased during the past decade or so, the growth in spending is not especially widespread and dominated by growth in just a few countries. Nigeria and Ethiopia account for half the region’s increase in agricultural R&D spending from 2000-2005—the latest year for which data are presently available. The intensity of public investment (i.e., agricultural R&D spending relative to the value of agricultural output) has increased as well. However, during the 2000-2005 period Africa spent just $0.54 on public research for every $100 of agricultural output, almost half the corresponding rest-of-world intensity ($1.05) and one-fifth of the rich country average ($2.70). Fragmented and typically small research agencies, and unstable funding streams still bedevil African agricultural research endeavors and undermine efficiencies in agricultural research that are intrinsically long-term in nature. Turning around these research realties in a meaningful and sustained fashion will be critical to realizing the long-term growth in African agriculture productivity that will be required to grow that sector in particular and the region’s economies more generally.
Who is more digital? Teenagers in China or Silicon Valley?
STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS — Who is more digitally switched on – high school students in Silicon Valley or Beijing?
A new study from Stanford University provides some clues. High schoolers in Palo Alto, Calif., in the heart of Silicon Valley, spend significantly more time using digital media every day than their peers at leading high schools in the Chinese capital. However, Chinese students sometimes outpace their American counterparts in embracing the latest internet technologies and building a network of online friends they have never met in person.
The Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE), part of the university's Graduate School of Business, looked into the digital lives of teens in Silicon Valley and China's capital. Seventy-one high schoolers, 44 from Palo Alto and 27 from Beijing, were surveyed online earlier this month. The students, between the ages of 16 and 18, were asked about their usage of different types of consumer electronics and communications, including how much time they spent daily on a range of online activities.
While the California teens spent significantly more time than their Beijing peers using social networking sites and blogging, Beijing students spent considerably more time watching films and videos over the internet, hardly watching television at all. The Beijing teens were much more likely to have online-only friends, and more of them (44% versus 16%) touted Apple's iPad tablets than the Palo Alto respondents.
The study suggested the emergence of a "digital tribe" of teens transcending cultures and geographic borders, especially in tech hotspots such as Silicon Valley and Beijing. "In certain urban locations, today's teens are native 'netizens'," said Marguerite Gong Hancock, associate director of SPRIE. "Most teens in our survey in both Palo Alto and Beijing have had mobile phones since the age of 12. They lead a large part of their daily lives online."
The survey and other research into patterns of entrepreneurship and venture capital investment was discussed September 30 at a Stanford conference addressing the rise of the internet in China. The gathering, China 2.0: Transforming Media and Commerce organized by SPRIE, included speakers from leading internet companies in China, entrepreneurs, and venture capital investors.
In advance of the conference, SPRIE polled the high school students with the assistance of Beijing-based Danwei.org, a Beijing research and information firm. Most of the American teens attend Palo Alto High School, while most of the Beijing students go to People's University Annex High School. Forty-one females and 30 males participated.
SPRIE researchers wanted to get a snapshot of the digital lifestyle of young urban Chinese expected to shape China's technology future. "These are the influencers and early adopters," said Hancock.
China's internet population of about 485 million has already surpassed the approximately 250 million users in the United States. "Understanding the habits of the next generation of Chinese netizens is increasingly important to investors and new media companies. The 'born after 1990' generation in China will play a role in influencing global adoption of new technologies and business models" said Duncan Clark, chairman of consulting firm BDA China, and senior advisor of the China 2.0 project at SPRIE.
There were major similarities between Palo Alto and Beijing students. On weekdays, the top online activity for both was doing schoolwork, followed by using social networking sites and downloading and listening to music. On weekends among the Beijing students, schoolwork remained the leading activity, followed by social networking and web surfing. On weekends in Silicon Valley, students spent the most time on social networking sites, followed by schoolwork and music. In both countries, the teens overwhelmingly favored texting to communicate with friends, although the Beijing teens were less likely to text their parents than the Palo Alto group.
Overall, the U.S. teens spent significantly more time than their Chinese counterparts on almost all types of internet activities. The Palo Alto students spent roughly twice as long (two hours a day) on social networking sites. By contrast, the Beijing teens were much more likely to watch videos and films online.
The study suggested that teens in China rely more heavily on the internet as an emotional and social outlet. In Beijing, more than 90% of respondents said they have friends they know only over the internet. That compared with 29% in Palo Alto. "China's post-'90s single-child generation faces limited play time and heavy academic pressures. The internet enables teens to live out a whole other life online," said Clark.
China's Alibaba wants to acquire Yahoo, says Jack Ma at China 2.0 conference hosted by SPRIE
STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS – In a wide-ranging talk, Jack Ma, chairman of China's Alibaba Group, publicly declared his interest in acquiring troubled U.S. internet giant Yahoo, while also reflecting on his 12-year journey building an internet powerhouse that has transformed commerce for small businesses and consumers in China.
The Chinese e-commerce billionaire addressed a Sept. 30 conference at the Stanford Graduate School of Business on the rise of China's internet. The gathering, China 2.0: Transforming Media and Commerce was organized by the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE). With more than 600 registered participants, the event featured talks by leading Chinese internet entrepreneurs and venture capitalists active in Asia as well as a look at ongoing Stanford research on venture investment patterns and networks in China.
Speaking without prepared notes, Ma revealed that he plans to spend the coming year in the United States. "After 12 years, I need some time to rest. This year has been so difficult for me. I'm now coming out for a year," said the Alibaba chief, whose company is based in Hangzhou, China.
Ma was asked if he wanted to acquire Yahoo, the struggling U.S. internet pioneer that owns 40% of Alibaba. "Yes. We're very interested in that. We're very interested in Yahoo because our Alibaba Group is so important to Yahoo and Yahoo is important to us. We are interested in the whole piece of Yahoo," he said, adding that Alibaba also has talked with other prospective buyers. However, a deal would be very "complicated," Ma cautioned. "I cross my fingers and say that we are very, very interested in that."
Alibaba's takeover of Yahoo would represent something of a role reversal, symbolizing how much China's internet—and to some degree, its economy—has eclipsed that of the United States'. In 2005, Ma sold a 40% stake in the fledgling Alibaba to Yahoo in exchange for $1 billion and control of Yahoo China. The Alibaba-Yahoo relationship has been strained in recent years and Ma has telegraphed his desire to reduce or buy back Yahoo's stake. "We appreciate yesterday, but are looking for a better tomorrow," Ma told the Stanford audience.
He described Jerry Yang, co-founder and board member of Yahoo, as "a good personal friend." Ma added, "Without the Yahoo investment, we wouldn't be that successful today. Yahoo is one of three companies that woke me up to the internet. Without the internet, there would be no Alibaba and no Jack Ma."
Ma downplayed recent investor concerns that Chinese regulators will clamp down on the "variable interest entity" (VIE), a vehicle that has allowed foreigners to indirectly invest in Chinese internet companies and for those firms to go public in overseas stock markets. "The VIE is a great innovation," but "we've got to make the VIE really transparent," said Ma. "I don't see that the government is going to shut it down," he added.
Ma reflected on some of his successes and failures since founding Alibaba in 1999 as an online venue for small Chinese firms to connect with overseas buyers. Visiting Silicon Valley that year, "I was rejected by so many venture capitalists. [But] I went back to China with the American Dream," he recalled.
Today, the Alibaba Group, with 23,000 employees, dominates e-commerce in China, largely through its Hong Kong-listed Alibaba.com business-to-business site, Taobao consumer-to-consumer marketplace, and Taobao Mall, a business-to-consumer site for branded items. Ma said his e-commerce enterprises have helped China's small businesses succeed and made Chinese consumers smarter about purchase decisions. "We feel proud because we're changing China," he said.
The conference took place shortly after Beijing announced that China's internet population has surpassed 500 million—about double the number in the United States. Two of the five biggest internet firms in the world, by market value, are from China. U.S. pioneers, including Yahoo, eBay, Google, and Facebook, have failed to make significant inroads in China, where the government exercises strong control over the internet and foreign ownership. In contrast, Chinese internet firms have grown rapidly, coming up with technological and business innovations for their domestic market, and seeking investors, technical know-how, and talent overseas.
"They are growing very quickly and have global aspirations. The days of thinking that's just an eBay copy is an old mindset," said Marguerite Gong Hancock, associate director of SPRIE. "The arrows are now pointing in both directions."
In a brief appearance, Stanford President John Hennessy told the audience that China and the internet "are the two most exciting things happening in the world." There are more than 1,000 students from China at Stanford, by far the largest from a single foreign country, he added.

Conference-goers heard from Joe Chen, MBA '99, founder and chief executive of Renren Inc., a social networking site popular among Chinese university students. Discussing the emergence of the social web in China, he described his company as positioned on the "bleeding edge of SoLoMo," describing the intersection of social, local, and mobile technologies coined by venture capitalist John Doerr. Chen suggested that social networking (based on relationships) has emerged as an alternative to online search (based on keywords) for obtaining and sharing information. Social networking will transform commerce, entertainment, content distribution, and communications, just as online search did, he predicted.
China's social networking and media companies have developed their own innovations, sometimes ahead of U.S. companies, said Chen.The world's first social networking farming game, for instance, was launched on Renren in 2008. Renren went public on the New York Stock Exchange in May, beating Facebook to the IPO trough.
Conference organizers described SPRIE research into venture capital investments and networks in China. Researchers analyzed data on more than 2,000 Chinese companies, nearly 800 investment firms, and more than 600 individuals, including their university and company affiliations. Using the data, they created visualizations—circular nodes with lines extending out in a web—of the relationships among companies, investors, and entrepreneurs. "This is the power of network analysis," said Hancock, showing onscreen a moving image of how China's "investment constellation" changed from 1996 to 2011. The densest venture clusters are in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. The research identified more than 40 venture capitalists involved in China who have ties to Stanford, she said.
Venture capitalists discussed the landscape for funding internet startups that are proliferating in China. "Early stage is still quite bubblish," said Tim Chang, MBA '01, managing director of the Mayfield Fund. "There's a lot of hot money doing drive-by due diligence."
Entrepreneurs described a frenetic, hyper-competitive environment for startups. "It's brutal. There are periods I cannot sleep for a month because of the massive pressures," said Fritz Demopoulos, co-founder of Qunar.com, China's largest travel web site, which recently sold a majority stake to Chinese search giant Baidu. But "there's still so much room to grow," said Demopoulos. "The runway in China is long."
The European and Global Economic Crisis: "The Eurozone Crisis and Prospects for Future European Integration or Disintegration"
Synopsis:
Robin Niblett, Director of Chatham House, delivered the following talk in The Europe Center series “The European and Global Economic Crisis”.
With measured optimism about the prospect for a way out of the current Eurozone crisis, Dr. Niblett argues that the introduction of the common Euro, seen by many in past years as a vanguard tool for European integration, is now potentially a functional wedge between ‘debtor’ and strongly capitalized nations.
Dr. Niblett, arriving directly from participating in the World Economic Forum in Dubai, and based on Chatham House research, described the “perfect storm” of the past two decades of credit-driven growth, divergence within the EU, rising debt-to GDP ratios of member nations especially in the cases of Italy and Greece. His analysis combines these economic details with the following:
- Demographics – high levels of unassimilated immigrants
- European welfare economies still distributing resources at twentieth-century levels now in the twenty-first century
- The rise of anti-immigrant and anti-free-trade populist parties
- The weakening of Europe’s center parties
- The “Russification” of Europe’s East – especially in recent events in Ukraine
- The stalled integration of Turkey into the EU
The totality of the above paints a grim portrait of Europe under the weight of nearly impossible conditions. And yet, Dr. Niblett underlines evidence for measured optimism:
- Ireland is making strides to reform its economy
- Ireland’s educated and yet unemployed workforce does have the possibility to immigrate to Europe
- The UK is finally rebalancing its state budget and market liberalization
- France is facing, albeit with massive labor protest, its state budget levels
- Spain will likely turn over its government in the face of its massive youth protest
- Italy is evaluating in its political process a series of budget reforms
These are the structural side of what Dr. Niblett sees as Europe’s tools for recovery.
On the side of European practice, the Franco-German proposals for European Central Bank “bailout funds” include new rules for transparency of internal government operations. This promises innovation to make the EU into an area of political and financial transparency, and to enable the EU to engage in direct investment, as evidence is beginning to show, in the world’s emerging economies. In this sense, Dr. Niblett sees for Europe a competitive edge over the US in engaging in world markets.
Perhaps most sanguine of Dr. Niblett’s analysis is his reading of the Eurozone crisis as a force to push the member nations of Europe further towards supra-national economic strategies. In order to participate in the investment in emerging markets, the Benelux countries, not to mention France, Germany, and neighboring European states, are responding to the crisis by considering policy that promotes investment and outsourcing for service-sector employment, instead of export commodities which have been undercut in recent years.
There is a risk, in Dr. Niblett’s view, that Europe will respond to the Eurozone crisis by fracturing into rival “clubs” of small and large or debt-restructuring and creditor nation-states. But the European nations, especially those currently participating in the Eurozone, have untapped capacities for growth:
- Educated youth
- Underemployed female laborers
- Outstanding higher educational institutions
- Pent-up small- and medium-enterprise markets
- Potential for growth in the service sector labor market
- Room for more tightly integrating and rationalizing the region’s energy market.
Those interested in further detail and analysis are invited to visit the work and productivity at:
The Europe Center, at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies: http://tec.fsi.stanford.edu
Chatham House, at the Royal Institute for International Studies: http://www.chathamhouse.org/
Speaker bio:
Robin Niblett became the Director of Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International
Affairs) in January 2007. Before joining Chatham House, from 2001 to 2006, Dr. Niblett
was the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Washington based
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). During his last two years at CSIS, he
also served as Director of the CSIS Europe Program and its Initiative for a Renewed
Transatlantic Partnership.
Most recently Dr. Niblett is the author of the Chatham House Report Playing to its
Strengths: Rethinking the UK’s Role in a Changing World (Chatham House, 2010) and
Ready to Lead? Rethinking America’s Role in a Changed World (Chatham House,
2009), and editor and contributing author to America and a Changed World: A Question
of Leadership (Chatham House/Wiley-Blackwell, 2010). He is also the author or
contributor to a number of CSIS reports on transatlantic relations and is contributing
author and co-editor with William Wallace of the book Rethinking European Order
(Palgrave, 2001). Dr Niblett is a frequent panellist at conferences on transatlantic
relations. He has testified on a number of occasions to the House of Commons Defence
Select Committee and Foreign Affairs Committee as well as US Senate and House
Committees on European Affairs.
Dr Niblett is a Non-Executive Director of Fidelity European Values Investment Trust. He
is a Council member of the Overseas Development Institute, a member of the World
Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Global Institutional Governance and the
Chairman of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on Europe.
He received his BA in Modern Languages and MPhil and DPhil from New College,
Oxford.
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