FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.
Although weather data are widely acknowledged to contain measurement errors, the implications of these errors for models that relate weather to yields have not been adequately examined. From statistical theory and applications in many other fields, it is clear that measurement error in a single predictor variable can lead to bias in estimating the effects of that variable, as well as any other correlated predictors. Of particular concern for statistical crop models is that errors in measuring precipitation can lead to bias in inferences about yield responses to both temperature and precipitation. In this study, simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) is used to gauge the importance of measurement error for two recent studies that employed statistical crop models. In both cases, estimates of yield responses to temperature were only slightly changed when considering measurement errors. However, yield responses to precipitation were significantly larger when assuming that precipitation is measured with 30% error, compared to the common assumption of error-free measurements. Thus, results indicate that studies that ignore measurement errors are unlikely to be biased for estimating T sensitivity of yields, but can easily underestimate P sensitivity by a factor of two or more. More work is needed to test effects of measurement errors in other cases, as well as to better quantify the magnitudes of errors in weather measurements for cropped regions. As a rough substitute for detailed measurement error analysis, sensitivity tests that double the yield response to precipitation are advised when applying statistical crop models to projections from climate ensembles. Depending on the magnitude of precipitation projections, which in turn depend on the spatial and temporal scale of analysis, the conclusions of a study may or may not be altered by considering the effects of measurement errors.
Kim Young Joo will discuss the literary works of Pak Kyong-ni (1926-2008), a prominent South Korean novelist and her mother, who was best known for her 21-volume novel, Toji (The Land), set in the turn of the 20th century. It took 25 years (1969-1994) for Pak to complete the epic novel.
Kim Young Joo is currently the chairperson of the Toji Cultural Foundation which was established by Pak Kyong Ni for the purpose of fostering creative thinking and lifestyles. The Foundation aims to facilitate a forum for international writers, artists and scholars to discuss contempoarary issues such as environment and future concerns. Kim's publications on Korean art includes Korean Art History (1997). She received a BA and an MA in sociology from Yonsei University, and was a lecturer at Yonsei and Sogang Universities.
Africa is witnessing a period of impressive economic transformation. Small business growth and technological innovation are bridging the development divide and lifting many out of poverty. Foreign investment has been pouring into the continent, viewed by analysts as one of the few remaining emerging market economies. Google's Eric Schmidt recently traveled to Africa on a technology tour citing Kenya's impressive gains in the ICT sector.
But the headlines and statistics fail to account for the large number left behind in the continent's race to develop. Social problems continue to plague African societies and threaten to reignite tensions, stalling long-term progress.
To address these challenges, grassroots leaders are working across Africa to introduce new models and practices to give voice and representation to marginalized groups, many of which include: women, children, and rural populations.
Referred to as "social entrepreneurs" these individuals work in partnership with local communities to use non-conventional approaches and innovative designs to address development challenges. Unlike traditional business entrepreneurs, their goal is not financial profit but societal gain.
In an effort to harness the collective expertise of these global change-makers, Stanford University's Program on Social Entrepreneurship was launched in 2011 to bring practitioners inside the classroom and on campus.
In April, three social entrepreneurs working to advance social, economic, and political change in Africa will spend the spring quarter in residency at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.
Turning justice on its head
After emerging from a decade-long civil war, Sierra Leone has been cited as a successful model of post-conflict development and stability. However, the formal justice system has continued to exclude large numbers of the country's rural population who continue to seek customary legal systems of representation. Recognizing this problem, Simeon Koroma co-founded Timap (which translates to "Stand Up" in the national Krio language) for Justice in 2003 to combine the best of both systems.
Through a network of highly trained paralegals and mediators located in 19 offices across Sierra Leone, Timap for Justice is helping clients navigate both systems to seek justice and address community-level concerns. To date, Timap for Justice has represented over 20,000 clients who are often the victims of human rights abuses at the hands of multinational corporations. Their innovative grassroots justice model together with Koroma's efforts to grow the organization has led Timap for Justice to be recognized on a national and regional level.
Transforming ripples into waves
Gemma Bulos - a California native - did not know the impact water would have on her life until she witnessed the world water crisis first-hand while traveling the world on a global peace campaign. A self described "accidental social entrepreneur," Bulos learned by actively listening to the needs of the local community and learning from their experiences. She co-founded A Single Drop for Safe Water in the Philippines to empower local communities to plan, implement, and manage community-driven water and sanitation solutions.
Recognizing the important role women play in the success of water projects, Bulos started her second entrepreneurial venture - the Global Women's Water Initiative (GWWI) - to work with rural women in East Africa to build simple water and sanitation technologies. Tailoring each project to the community's needs, GWWI equips women with the technical skills to build rainwater harvesting tanks, water treatment technologies, and toilets. All projects are constructed using locally appropriate and affordable technologies. Trainings have helped to spur micro-enterprise development, and have provided over 15,000 people with clean water and sanitation solutions.
Putting children's rights first
Malawi made international headlines as the destination for pop singer Madonna's adoption of two young children, but the country has made little progress in protecting the rights of their youngest citizens. Maxwell Matewere founded the organization, Eye of the Child, to advocate for children who are victims of forced marriage, child labor, abuse, and sexual exploitation.
Matewere's innovative model uses litigation, public and policy advocacy, and training of community organizations to lead national campaigns against child abuse. Since 2010, the organization has provided free legal aid to 47 cases of forced marriages, 13 cases of arranged marriages, and rescued 21 children from early marriages.
Through his work leading Eye of the Child, Matewere has challenged powerful actors in business and government to advocate for new practices and legislation to protect the interests and well-being of young children. In recognition of his work, Matewere was appointed as Malawi's special law commissioner to develop a national policy for anti-human trafficking and adoption.
Informing theory with practice
During the spring quarter, the three social entrepreneurs will participate in an undergraduate course (IR142) examining how social entrepreneurs advance democracy, development, and justice. Taught by Kathleen Kelly Janus, a lecturer at Stanford, the course will combine academic theory with the social entrepreneurs practical experience to present a more inclusive model of social change. Students will also be encouraged to partner with social entrepreneurs on service learning projects.
Social entrepreneurs will engage the broader Stanford community through a series of speaking roles on campus during the academic quarter. They will also have the time and space to pursue their own research initiatives, contemplate the next steps on their journey as social change leaders, and document their own models of social change.
CDDRL's Program on Social Entrepreneurship was founded in 2011 by Kavita Ramdas, the former head of the Global Fund for Women and the current representative of the Ford Foundation in India. The program is now led by Faculty Director Deborah L. Rhode, a professor of law at Stanford Law School and affiliate faculty member at CDDRL.
This spring marks the third cycle of the program, which has welcomed previous social entrepreneurs from Bosnia-Herzegovina, Malaysia, Palestine, South Africa, and the San Francisco Bay Area, who together work on critical problems of democracy, development, and social justice in their communities.
For more information on the program, please visit: pse.stanford.edu.
Kim Jiha is a South Korean poet and playwright whose early poetry theme was in political resistance. After having written poems including Five Thieves criticizing President Park Chung-Hee's dictatorship he was sentenced to death in 1974 for orchestrating an anti-government movement, and then to life imprisonment. His sentence was suspended following Park's assassination. On January 4, 2013, 39 years after the death sentence, Kim was cleared of sedition charges by a Seoul court.
Since 1980s Kim's view of human condition has evolved to incorporate Korean traditional Dong-hak and other eastern and western philosophies into a theory of life, seeking balance and harmony in the nation and ultimately in the world.
Kim metaphorically refers to mountains and waters to indicate the relations between Korea and the United States.
Kim was born in Mokpo, South Cholla Province, in 1941 and received a BA in Aesthetics from Seoul National University in 1966.
We have read the headline a number of times now warning us that increasing temperatures are threatening global crop production. One need only to recall the drought and heat wave that hit the mid-western United States last summer, damaging corn and soybean production. Higher temperatures are certainly part of the problem, but a new study led by FSE associate director David Lobell finds its impacts in the U.S. are more indirect. Water stress may be the main culprit.
To validate this hypothesis and to help differentiate the different mechanisms impacting crop yields at higher temperatures, the research team used a model known as an Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). High temperatures had a strong negative effect on corn yield response in the United States, in agreement with the data, but the predominate effect of heat in the model was via increased water stress.
As temperatures increase, plants transpire more water into the atmosphere, just as people sweat more on hotter days. With more hot days, the corn plant finds it harder to maintain growth rates, and at the same time loses more water, which sets up the risk of even more drought stress later in the season.
“APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2 ºC warming than to a 20 percent precipitation reduction,” writes Lobell and co-authors in a new paper published in Nature Climate Change. “Water stress during July is particularly important for overall biomass growth and final yield, with July being the month with the most total biomass growth.”
Direct heat stress on the plant, such as happens on extremely hot days, played a more minor role in determining final yield. The study suggests that increased CO2 may reduce crop sensitivity to extreme heat by increasing water use efficiency, but gains are likely to be no more than 25 percent.
“The APSIM model has been valuable in its ability to discriminate the importance of these factors,” said Lobell. “Models like these are useful for guiding efforts to develop crops with greater tolerance to increased temperatures, an important component of most adaptation strategies in agriculture, and helping to identify which processes are critical for modeling efforts to consider when projecting climate change impacts.”
The researchers project sensitivity to extreme heat will remain a severe constraint to crop production in the foreseeable future, especially as the region warms. They are now using the models to evaluate different strategies for developing new varieties of corn that can better handle the heat.
Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States and elsewhere have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30°C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2°C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.
Many Stanford computer science majors hope to land coveted jobs in Silicon Valley upon graduation. Parth Bhakta or Ben Rudolph aren't so sure. They first want to take their skills far afield of the storied technology hub.
Bhakta and Rudolph joined two other Stanford students earlier this month to travel to Ethiopia, making their way to remote refugee camps along the Sudanese border. They are researching ways in which technology and design innovation can help improve conditions for refugees and their surrounding communities.
“As a computer science student, I feel that a lot of Silicon Valley is focused on solving trivial problems,” said Bhakta, a senior from Palm Desert, Calif., who graduates this year with an undergraduate degree in symbolic systems and a master’s in computer science. “I hope to apply my skills toward something that has a meaningful impact. I want this experience to help me better understand how to tackle big, tangible problems.”
The students worked with the UNHCR and International Rescue Committee in the Bambasi and Sherkole refugee camps in western Ethiopia to test out ideas they’ve been working on with the goal of improving camp communications; food security and economic self-sufficiency; host community relations; and the often difficult process of setting up camps to house arriving refugees.
The idea for the trip emerged from a dialogue and collaboration between Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). An official from the UN agency approached CISAC Co-Director Tino Cuéllar last spring, and encouraged CISAC to explore ideas to better protect and support the care of more than 42 million refugees, internally displaced and stateless people worldwide.
These early discussions led to a multidisciplinary partnership involving CISAC, students from across the Stanford campus and at the Hassno-Platner Institute of Design – better known as the d.school – as well as professors, NGOs, physicians, officials with experience in humanitarian settings, architects and other professionals eager to volunteer their time and expertise.
Among those professionals is Jeffrey Geisinger, an architect with Ennead Architects in New York. The firm, which designed the new Stanford Law School wing and the recently inaugurated Bing Concert Hall, is doing pro bono work on the project through its advocacy lab.
Geisinger hopes to start designing modules that might be used in shared spaces. To do this, he said, he must see what construction materials are available, what deficiencies typically exist out in the field and which social networks and local skills might be tapped to help the UN build more innovative structures shared by both communities.
“From an architect’s perspective, we’re interested in some kind of design solution,” said Geisinger. “But before we can even begin to put pencil to paper, it’s important to really define the problem.”
For CISAC, the project represents a further effort to bridge the gap between scholarship and practice.
“This is an extraordinary manifestation of CISAC’s mission to help shape public policy,” said Liz Gardner, CISAC’s associate director for programs. “This project marries up scholarship, teaching and close interaction with policymakers – with the ultimate goal of improving the lives of refugees.”
The project also led to dozens of students from a variety of majors to enroll in the Law School class, “Rethinking Refugee Communities,” co-taught by Cuéllar and Leslie Witt of the global design consultancy, IDEO. The students have been brainstorming and investigating, then hammering out concepts and prototypes they hope might one day be implemented by the United Nations.
Now, they want to put those ideas to the test.
Rudolph, a senior from Chicago, is working with his team to build a software platform that would enable early camp registration and provide two-way communication between the UNHCR and refugees, using mobile technology. RescueSMS is software designed to better profile each refugee and alert them to upcoming events or emergencies in the camp, as well as give them a voice to express concerns or ask questions of the UN.
“I’m excited about applying my computer science knowledge to humanitarian efforts, where I think software is underused,” said Rudolph, who has had a string of internships at Silicon Valley startups. “I wanted a change of pace from the corporate world; I was tired of working for traditional software startup companies.”
So he’s taking an untraditional route. Rudolph’s interest in the project has led to an internship with the UNHCR’s innovation lab in Geneva after he graduates this summer.
One of Cuéllar’s goals is to build long-term relationships with organizations such as the UNHCR so that the work by Stanford students becomes embedded in the innovation process of public organizations.
Devorah West’s team is looking at infrastructure in the space that is shared by refugees and the indigenous people from the surrounding community. When thousands of refugees stream into border communities in neighboring countries, resources become scarce and tensions run high. West is representing the team looking at ways to build schools, medical facilities and marketplaces that could be shared by both communities.
“My team will use this trip to get a better understanding of realities on the ground,” said West, a second-year master’s student in international policy studies from Santa Fe, N.M., who graduates this summer. “We hope to find ways to defuse tensions over scarce resources and allow both communities to satisfy social and physical needs.”
West said she was drawn to the project by the interdisciplinary nature of the teams.
“Having worked in the policy world, I was really interested in using design thinking to fuse together academic research and policy development in order to have a concrete impact on refugee communities,” she said.
Jessica Miranda is representing the team focused on food security and economic self-sufficiency. They are working on understanding how to encourage small-scale mobile farming. During her visits to the camps, she will investigate the challenges that affect small-scale gardening and learn more about the terrain, the nutritional status of vulnerable households and what the cultural views are on agriculture.
“I know how it feels to leave your country behind,” said Miranda, a second-year master’s student in international policy studies from Toluca, Mexico. “And I want to help. But it’s difficult to think about refugee camps from the comfort of my couch. It’s time to go and see how these ideas might work on the ground."
Beth Duff-Brown, CISAC’s communications manager, traveled with the students and will be reporting from the field.
Sugarcane area is currently expanding in Brazil, largely in response to domestic and international demand for sugar-based ethanol. To investigate the potential hydroclimatic impacts of future expansion, a regional climate model is used to simulate 5 years of a scenario in which cerrado and cropland areas (~1.1E6 km2) within south-central Brazil are converted to sugarcane. Results indicate a cooling of up to ~1.0°C during the peak of the growing season, mainly as a result of increased albedo of sugarcane relative to the previous landscape. After harvest, warming of similar magnitude occurs from a significant decline in evapotranspiration and a repartitioning toward greater sensible heating. Overall, annual temperature changes from large-scale conversion are expected to be small because of offsetting reductions in net radiation absorption and evapotranspiration. The decline in net water flux from land to the atmosphere implies a reduction in regional precipitation, which is consistent with progressively decreasing simulated average rainfall for the study period, upon conversion to sugarcane. However, rainfall changes were not robust across three ensemble members. The results suggest that sugarcane expansion will not drastically alter the regional energy or water balance, but could result in important local and seasonal effects.
FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. 
