The 21 member economies of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum met in San Francisco from November 11-17 at the APEC Leaders’ Week to discuss trade, sustainable development, technological innovation, and other pressing issues. The occasion also provided opportunities for APEC member leaders to hold bilateral meetings, of which perhaps the most highly anticipated was a summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Shorenstein APARC experts explain the implications of the APEC convening, analyze the deliverables from the Biden-Xi meeting, and examine issues that cast a shadow on the U.S. relations with Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world's fourth-most populous country. Continue reading below for a roundup of our experts’ analysis and commentary featured in U.S. and international media.

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Meeting face-to-face for the first time in a year on the sidelines of the APEC Summit, Biden and Xi discussed issues spanning military and trade relations, signaling a willingness to bring a degree of stability to the rocky U.S.-China bilateral relations. Ties between the two countries have deteriorated amid tensions like those in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, disputes about technology competition, and the February 2023 Chinese spy balloon incident. APARC fellows consider the significance of the Biden-Xi meeting in numerous articles and interviews in the press.

The United States and China each have reasons to meet now and reduce hostilities. For President Biden, the upcoming 2024 presidential election is ample impetus to work for a better relationship with the Chinese. For Beijing, as Center Fellow Thomas Fingar tells the Japan Times, the country’s “economic difficulties and their implications for social stability and regime legitimacy have made Beijing more eager to improve relations with countries important to its economy than was the case six to 12 months ago.” And Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro notes in the Christian Science Monitor that “both sides are trying to present to the rest of the world that they have things under control,” something that requires “predictable, high-level engagement.”

Most analysts, however, held low expectations for substantive outcomes from the meeting between the two leaders. According to Mastro, there is no indication of improvement in the tension between the two sides because neither the United States nor China is ready to make “any significant concession,” she argues on NBC News.

One reason for that is an aversion to political risk. As Mastro tells KCRW’s Madeleine Brand on Press Play: “There’s no political appetite for [thinking outside the box]. Political leaders want to make sure any policy will 100% work before they're willing to embark on it. But in the world of geopolitics, it's really hard to know that before you try things and experiment and assess and reassess.”

That said, just the very fact of the meeting taking place could represent an essential signal to Chinese officials, as Fingar points out to NBC News: “For there really to be a movement for lower levels of the [Chinese] system to engage in specifics, it needs a refreshed endorsement from Xi.” 

One outcome many were looking for was a resumption of U.S.-China military communications, what defense analysts call “mil-to-mil exchanges.” The Chinese severed these in 2022 when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. With close encounters between American and Chinese forces in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea becoming almost commonplace, communications at the military senior level are critical to prevent escalation. But restoring these ties would have limited value because, as Mastro tells NPR, “You can expect that, the next time [the Chinese] get unhappy about something, maybe after the Taiwan election, they cut them off again. So, unless we have some sort of commitment to sustained engagement, the mil-to-mil exchanges are unlikely to be sufficient to stabilize the relationship.”
 

The Biden-Xi meeting took place on the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The United States is concerned that China — as a good friend of Iran and one of the largest importers of its gas and oil — could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and potentially exacerbate tensions. However, Mastro argues that bringing up the Middle East in the context of the U.S.-China bilateral meeting only serves to aid Beijing in its propaganda efforts. As she says on KTVU Fox 2 News, “China does not really care what happens [in the Middle East]. But they are leveraging the support, especially in the developing world, in the Global South, for Hamas to push back against the United States and basically use Israel as a proxy for discontent about what they call ‘American unilateralism,’ ‘American hegemony.’” 

The conflict in the Middle East came up in another high-level meeting when Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Biden in Washinton before heading to the APEC forum. Although U.S.-Indonesian security cooperation is good and trade has grown, Jakarta is unhappy with the White House for several reasons. Among these, the war in Gaza was probably foremost in Widodo’s mind, writes Ambassador Scot Marciel, the Oksenberg-Rholen Fellow at APARC, in an essay for The Diplomat magazine. “Indonesia, home to the world’s largest Muslim population, has long supported the Palestinian cause and has vigorously pursued diplomatic efforts to achieve an immediate ceasefire.” Thus, Indonesian public opinion has put Jakarta and Washington at odds over the Israel-Hamas crisis, explains Marciel.

Indonesians also remain upset by the snub of Biden skipping the recent East Asia Summit and by “what they see as Washington’s failure to deliver on the high-profile Just Energy Transition Partnership, under which the U.S. committed to lead G-7-plus efforts to mobilize $20 billion to support Indonesia’s accelerated transition from coal to cleaner energy,” Marciel writes, urging Washington to engage Jakarta seriously on these issues before Indonesia is heading into crucial presidential elections in early 2024.

More Media Coverage

For more coverage of the APEC forum and Biden-Xi meeting with analysis by APARC scholars, visit the links below:

Kishida and Xi Aim for Trade Progress Despite Lingering Tensions
The Japan Times, November 17, 2023

Biden, Xi Set to Pledge Ban on AI in Autonomous Weapons Like Drones, Nuclear Warhead Control
South China Morning Post, November 17, 2023

Oriana Skylar Mastro on the Xi-Biden Meeting on the Sidelines of APEC 
BBC Sounds, November 15, 2023

Biden, Xi Eye Economic, Military Thaw in High-Stakes Meeting
Bloomberg Technology, November 15, 2023

US Grants Chinese Journalists Hundreds of Visas to Cover APEC
Bloomberg News, November 14, 2023

Xi’s Arrival in US Brings Protesters and Fans Onto Streets
Bloomberg News, November 14, 2023

U.S.-China: One Summit, Two Different Goals for Biden and Xi
Nikkei Asia, November 14, 2023

Presidents Xi and Biden Seek to Turn Back the Clock in San Francisco
Time Magazine, November 14, 2023

China's Xi Jinping to meet with Biden in San Francisco
NPR, November 11, 2023

Biden, Xi Set to Pledge Ban on AI in Autonomous Weapons Like Drones, Nuclear Warhead Control
South China Morning Post, November 11, 2023

Biden and Xi to Seek to Stabilize Relations in California Meeting
New York Times, November 10, 2023

APEC Offers Important Chance to Stabilize Tense U.S.-China Relations
San Francisco Examiner, November 10, 2023

Joe Biden, Xi Jinping Set to Steal APEC Spotlight with Talks to Steady Ties
Reuters, November 8, 2023
 

This past summer, I had the opportunity to live and work in the center of Berlin with the International Security and Development Center (ISDC).  My research focus for the past several years has been at the intersection of food insecurity and civil conflict.  I want to understand which country characteristics leave states vulnerable to civil conflict when food insecurity exists.  In the months leading up to summer, I decided to locate a researcher I have cited repeatedly in my work, Tilman Brück.  I learned that he founded a research institute in Berlin whose vision is to improve lives and livelihoods shaped by conflict and humanitarian emergencies. That vision perfectly aligns with my own research goals and career interests.  I emailed the ISDC and asked to spend the summer with them, and just a few months later, there I was, in a European cultural epicenter, Berlin. 

Not only did I enjoy a beautiful summer steeped in history in Berlin, but I also honed my research skills.  I learned how to conduct collaborative research and present it effectively.  I got to work closely with and under the supervision of the Welfare Program Director, Ghassan Baliki, on a food security project.  The project focused on households in conflict settings.  Ghassan Baliki and I worked on strategies to evaluate the data empirically.  By the end of the internship, I produced substantive research that I presented at an ISDC seminar.

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A food-secure population is a necessary step in achieving sustainable peace.  My long-term goal is to shape food security literature and policy.  My next step towards this goal is to study for a Ph.D. and examine the effects of food insecurity on human populations, factoring in the consequences of climate change on food production.  The growing intensity of severe weather, floods, and droughts that destroy crop yields and cause the death of livestock undermine food security imperatives.  The research and presentation skills I learned at the ISDC will benefit me as I work toward my Ph.D.

Beyond enhancing my research skills, I connected with leaders in the food insecurity field and observed how organizations function.  For example, our team had lunch with and engaged in a seminar discussion with Mike Robson, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN’s representative in Syria. I also built out my network of colleagues working towards a peaceful world.  I connected with people engaged in similar research across the globe - Tunisia, Lebanon, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Georgia.  Each colleague is dedicated to improving the lives of people who exist in the most difficult of circumstances throughout the world.  It was incredible to have the opportunity to work with people who are conscious and intensely committed to food security and peace.

I also learned about the difficulties of running an organization that focuses on making an impact.  While the research is essential, funding is crucial.  Stakeholders must make the necessary investments, which requires background research and discussions with partners and potential funders.  I gained insights into the complexities at the decision-making level in any organization.  It takes a team of specialists to run the various functions.  Research needs to be produced to address the needs in the world effectively; however, the research also has to be published and disseminated to policymakers and the public through appropriate channels and social media.  Given the variety of stakeholders that are essential for success when research outcomes are the final product, a network of relevant connections and strong partnerships are prerequisites.

I am fortunate to have spent the summer learning and contributing at the ISDC and being integrated into such a beautiful city.  I am so grateful to have had the opportunity to do so.  It would not have been possible without the support of the MIP program at Stanford and the ISDC.  So, I want to thank both communities for being such fantastic partners in my development.  I also want to thank the entire ISDC community for making me feel like a part of the team.  From the picnic with the fun games and delicious foods to the all-hands-on-deck, paper-in-a-day project, you exemplify how great a work community can be and fill me with hope for a kinder and more just globe.

As the Payne Distinguished Lecturer, Naidoo will have the opportunity to teach a seminar to the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy, mentor undergraduate and graduate students across FSI’s centers, and present the annual Payne Lecture in the winter of 2024. Naidoo’s multi-disciplinary expertise at the crossroads of social justice and environmental advocacy will bring welcome perspectives to the intellectual communities at CDDRL, FSE, and FSI, and across Stanford’s campus to places like the new Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.

“At a time when we are seeing a convergence of multiple crises in the world and some troubling trends, including the rise of fascism, continuing climate denialism, a challenge to the multilateral system and more, I am pleased to have this opportunity to engage in reflective work on the question of ‘How can activism win bigger and faster?’” says Naidoo. 

He continues, “One of the key reasons we are not getting as much urgency and momentum to act on climate and intersecting challenges is the communications deficits activism comes up against: at an objective level, we face a challenging ownership structure of mainstream media which leaves little place for narratives and perspectives pushing for substantive structural and systemic change.”

“We are delighted to welcome Dr. Naidoo as this year’s Payne Lecturer,” shared Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL. “With his remarkable background as a human rights activist and a global leader in environmental and social justice, Kumi brings a wealth of knowledge and insight that will undoubtedly spark meaningful conversations and inspire our students, faculty, and the greater Stanford community."

Previous Payne Distinguished Lecturers include Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary of NATO; Ertharin Cousin, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Agencies for Food and Agriculture; Brett McGurk, former presidential envoy to defeat ISIS; and Jung-Seung Shin, former Ambassador for the Republic of Korea, among others.

The Payne Lectureship is named for Frank E. Payne and Arthur W. Payne, brothers who gained an appreciation for global problems through their international business operations. The Payne Distinguished Lecturer is chosen for his or her international reputation as a leader, with an emphasis on visionary thinking; a broad, practical grasp of a given field; and the capacity to clearly articulate an important perspective on the global community and its challenges. 

Speaking to his upcoming time at Stanford, Kumi Naidoo outlined some of his goals for his research and lectureship while at FSI.

“At a subjective level, change agents tend to try to move people primarily by facts, figures, policy and rational arguments. This approach has tended to ignore the need to reach people in their hearts, body and soul. I look forward to continuing to work on one of the solutions I have been pursuing which is the need to harness the power of arts and culture, what increasingly is referred to as Artivism. I am hoping to use my time at Stanford University to interrogate these issues and share through my writing and podcast (Power, People and Planet) some of the perspectives that challenge the way that conventional activism has tried to foster structural and systemic change.”

A day after the end of spring quarter, I hopped on a flight to leave behind beautiful Bay Area weather, destined for the hot, humid wetlands we call our nation’s capital. I was to spend 12 weeks working at the Technology Lab of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (the Fed), the central bank of the United States. 

My first day was rather routine. I arrived a bit early and a bit overdressed. My supervisor, Bunmi, gave me my work laptop, a first-day tour, and my onboarding checklist. I was being paid to introduce myself repeatedly and fill out forms—quite an easy gig. But this is the nation’s central bank; they are going to get their money’s worth out of me. So, I was sitting in my office after lunch setting up my Federal Reserve gym membership when Bunmi walked in and asked me to come with her, Jill, the TechLab manager, and Jeff, a senior analyst, to a TechLab panel for the Federal Reserve System’s Innovation Office. Of course, let’s go. 

We got to the System Innovation Office’s onsite, and I was doing the introductions routine once again. I met Sunayna, a Stanford alum and, probably more importantly, the Chief System Innovation Officer, who introduced us to her team. After another round of introductions, I headed to the side to sit in the audience. Jill saw this and asked me to join the team on the panel. Why not? Well, I can think of a few reasons. Anyway, three hours into my first day, I was sitting on a panel in front of the entire Federal Reserve System Innovation Office explaining how I think machine learning can be applied to financial supervision and where I see the TechLab in five years. 

That first day set the pace for the next 11 weeks and four days.

But first, a quick detour to some American history for context.

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 after a series of financial crises led to the desire for stable monetary policy. The System is similar to our broader federalist system of governance, with power distributed among multiple layers. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System—where I worked—is a federal government agency led by seven president-nominated and Senate-confirmed governors. Under the Board, 12 Federal Reserve Banks serve as the operational arms of the System. Each Reserve Bank is an independent private corporation, but all work closely with the Board to execute their policies. To promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve is afforded autonomy and independence from the more political branches of government. While the Fed certainly coordinates and receives guidance from the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, it is generally empowered to make independent monetary and regulatory policies.

Fast forward 110 years. The Federal Reserve’s mission has expanded since its inception and now covers (1) setting monetary policy, (2) ensuring financial stability, (3) supervision and regulation of banks, (4) fostering a safe payments ecosystem, and (5) consumer protection. As part of this mission, the Federal Reserve has a large group of economists who produce research to inform policymakers as they steer the world’s largest economy. However, the economy and the financial system that supports it are being transformed by technological advancement. And while the Fed has a breadth and depth of economics expertise, it does not have the same technical expertise. So, to ensure that the governors receive informed, impartial technical research before making decisions, the Fed has set up multiple teams to focus on emerging technology. Three years ago, the Board created the Technology Lab to conduct research and experimentation with emerging technologies relevant to the financial system.

The Technology Lab changes its research agenda every year. It began by researching distributed ledger technology, central bank digital currencies, and has a new set of projects this year. The core team is five members strong, with over a dozen rotators from across the System who join the TechLab to lend their subject matter expertise on a specific project. 

I was assigned to work on two projects, and while I cannot discuss the specifics of my work, it comprised 60% writing and 40% software development and data analysis. Because the TechLab is relatively small and new, I effectively worked as a core team analyst leading sub-parts of the two projects. Hopefully, in the coming months, the Fed will publish the work, and I will be able to share more then. Beyond the core research and experimentation work, I also helped moderate the TechLab’s weekly series, where we invited subject matter experts from academia, the private sector, and the government.

Other highlights during my time at the Fed included representing the Board of Governors at a nationwide Federal Reserve System showcase in front of 250 people. I also got to sit next to Chairman Jerome Powell, ask him questions at an intern event, and meet now-Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at another event.

The summer also included several highlights outside the workplace. I celebrated the Fourth of July at the White House. I attended a piano and violin concert at the French Embassy. I went on an exclusive Fed-only tour of the dollar printing facility of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing. I got to see the dollar printing machines up close, smudge a few in-production hundred-dollar bills, and hold 40 pounds of cash in one hand.

Working at the Fed this summer was an absolute pleasure and incredibly fulfilling—it made me genuinely excited about public service. I want to thank Amber, Bunmi, Cy, Jeff, Jill, Jochen, Laila, Lucas, Megan, and Monique from the TechLab team. I also want to thank Karley and Laura from the Talent Acquisition team, who guided me through the recruitment process and supported me throughout the internship. And lastly, I want to thank Sonja, Sunayna, and Susan at the officer level, who met with me to chat about the Fed, financial innovation, and career options. There are many more people who I cannot list here because of a word count limit, but I appreciate all of you. It was a genuinely wonderful summer.

A year ago, as I left the historic surroundings of Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. to join the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy (MIP) at Stanford, one of my many objectives was to diversify my professional toolkit and improve my leadership skills. I have come to understand that the nature of many challenges today, particularly in the field of technology amid growing rates of global interconnection, innovation, and digitalization, requires much richer, diverse, and coordinated approaches. The leaders of today must strive to find fortitude in diversity and cooperation. 

In pursuing this objective, over the summer I interned for the Security and Intelligence Team at Duco Experts, a technology start-up headquartered in San Francisco. After five years of public service work, this represented a unique opportunity to learn the intricacies of entrepreneurship from the inside. 

Led by its inspiring CEO, Sidney Olinyk, and an elite team of young professionals, Duco works across the topics of artificial intelligence (AI), trust and safety, cybersecurity, elections, and geopolitical risk. Through its innovative advisory services, Duco supports a considerable pool of Fortune 100 companies, including some of the largest U.S. technology companies. 

The breadth of activities I carried out during my internship gave me exposure to the intersection of security and technology policy, as well as a deeper understanding of the complex decisions faced by corporate executives at major U.S. technology companies. 

In retrospect, there are three main lessons I learned during my time at Duco:

Finding Fortitude in Diversity and Cooperation

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One of the first experiences I had at Duco was supporting an event with different allies and stakeholders from the technology community in San Francisco and D.C. to showcase the launch of the report, Scaling Trust on the Web. Duco Experts contributed to the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) Task Force for a Trustworthy Future Web and this event allowed me to interact with experts in the field of Trust and Safety, connect with former MIP students now working in industry, and experience first-hand how coordinated and collaborative approaches can result in innovative solutions to issues as complex as the ones faced in the cyber domain. 

The report summarizes the task force's recommendations for specific, actionable interventions that could catalyze safer, more trustworthy online spaces. And most importantly, the report reinvigorates the rationale of cooperation in cyberspace, as it highlights, for example, the role of academia, media, and civil society to help build better online spaces. I am convinced that these recommendations will have a long-lasting effect and will serve as a guide for many actors globally. 

Mapping Technological Risk Worldwide

In my role supporting the Manager for Security and Intelligence at Duco, I had the opportunity to conduct research and produce alerts relevant to major U.S. technology companies. I analyzed the implications for such companies of China's revised Counter Espionage Law, mapped the data and privacy risks posed by fake web browser extensions and the shortcomings of automatic vetting processes, detailed the risks of internet censorship and restrictions in Russia, and investigated how marketing scammers target children online. Furthermore, I gained valuable insights into timely debates in the field of generative AI technologies and challenges faced by content moderation teams when tackling CSAM online. 

During my time on the Security and Intelligence Team, I had the opportunity to work in their cybersecurity portfolio, understand the logic of business development and vertical markets, and support the delivery of high quality projects for clients, a novel experience for me. The last project I supported allowed me to widen my knowledge of cybersecurity research centers worldwide and interact with consultants, academics, and former industry experts to address clients' needs. 

Thinking Like a CEO

One of the biggest lessons I learned during my internship, a mantra I will carry with me wherever I go, came from Duco's CEO herself, Sidney Olinyk, who constantly reminded us during team meetings to: "be adaptable, be comfortable with rejection, and always think like a CEO."

My time at Duco Experts showed me the importance of flexibility and adaptability, particularly when attempting to tackle challenges related to emerging technologies. From generative AI to developments in quantum computing, the ever-evolving innovation landscape requires professionals who can lead with flexibility, humanity, and who are not afraid to redirect efforts when necessary. 

As I seek to make my way into the field of technology policy and I continue my efforts to bring unrepresented voices to the forefront of technology-related debates across the Americas, my summer experience at Duco Experts has equipped me with a valuable understanding of the start-up ecosystem in San Francisco, as well as some of the most pressing areas of opportunity in the field of cybersecurity and emerging technologies. 

My sincere gratitude to Sidney Olinyk, Neema Basri, Lauren LaBrique, Sofia Arimany and all the members of the Duco Experts team for sharing their knowledge and for leading with such humane and passionate effectiveness.