Environment

FSI scholars approach their research on the environment from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Center on Food Security and the Environment weighs the connection between climate change and agriculture; the impact of biofuel expansion on land and food supply; how to increase crop yields without expanding agricultural lands; and the trends in aquaculture. FSE’s research spans the globe – from the potential of smallholder irrigation to reduce hunger and improve development in sub-Saharan Africa to the devastation of drought on Iowa farms. David Lobell, a senior fellow at FSI and a recipient of a MacArthur “genius” grant, has looked at the impacts of increasing wheat and corn crops in Africa, South Asia, Mexico and the United States; and has studied the effects of extreme heat on the world’s staple crops.

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All too frequently, students of democracy and democratization view the politics they analyze exclusively through the prism of constitutions, elections, and political actors. In the case of the Middle East, this involves worn out questions of religious fundamentalism, neo-colonialism, entrenched autocracy, the politics of oil and Israel, etc. While all of these are indeed relevant to understanding the perseverance of authoritarian political structures, it is equally crucial to understand the dynamics of culture, and the ways in which forms of cultural expression are developing, and are channeled and managed. In his recent  analysis of the region, Hicham Ben Abdallah points out that, while legal and political authorities certainly define the contours of what is permissible or not, it is the shared system of collective beliefs which in turn shapes the law and politics, and it is in the realm of culture that these shared beliefs are produced and consumed.  The wearing of veil, for example, is not mandated by any legislation outside of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and yet it a growing practice throughout the region, part of an increasingly powerful salafist ideological norm that is at least as powerful as any law.

Contrary to the hastily-borrowed western-paradigm of an inexorable development of secularism leading to an inevitable development of democracy, Ben Abdallah demonstrates the proliferation of cultural practices in which result societies, and individuals, learn to live in a complex mix of parallel and conflicting ideological tendencies -- with the increasing Islamicization of everyday ideology developing alongside the proliferation of de-facto secular forms of cultural production, even as both negotiate for breathing room under the aegis of an authoritarian state. 

He finds any prospects for democratization complicated by parallel tacit alliances.  On the one hand, a modus vivendi between the state and fundamentalists, in which the latter is permitted to Islamicize society, and is sometimes allowed a carefully-delimited participation in state structures, under the condition they restrain from attempting radically to reform the state. On the other hand  intellectuals and artists refrain from frontal assaults on autocratic state structures, subtly limiting their militancy to non-controversial causes, while seeking the state's protection from extremism; their aim is to maintain some protected space of quasi-secular liberalism in the present, which they hope portends the promise of democracy to come.

For its part, the state is learning how to manage and take advantage of a segmented cultural scene by posing as the restraining force against extreme enforcement of the salafist norm, and by channeling forms of modernist cultural expression into established systems  of institutional and patronage rewards (for "high" culture) and into a commercialized process of "festivalization" (for popular culture) that ends up as a celebration of an abstract, de politicized "Arab" identity.

Ben Abdallah refers us to the deep history of Islam, which protected and developed divergent cultural and intellectual influences as the patrimony of mankind. He suggests a new paradigm of cultural and intellectual discourse, inspired by this history while also understanding the necessity for political democratization and cultural modernism. We must, he argues, be unafraid to face the challenges in the tension between the growing influence of a salafist norm and the widespread embrace of new, implicitly secular, cultural practices throughout the Arab world.

Version in English at Le Monde Diplomatique, "The Arab World's Cultural Challenge"

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In 2009 the global coal market witnessed one of the most dramatic realignments it has ever seen - China, long a net exporter of coal, suddenly imported a record-smashing 126 Mt tons (103 Mt net). This inversion of China's role in global coal markets meant that Chinese imports accounted for nearly 15% of all globally traded coal, and China became the focal point of global demand as traditional import markets like Europe and Japan stagnated in the wake of the financial crisis.  The middle kingdom's appetite for imported coal seems insatiable, and the "China Factor" appears to have ushered in a new paradigm for the global coal market.

But China doesn't "need" the coal.  The world's largest coal producer cranked out 2.96 Bt of production in 2009, backed up by 114.5 Bt of reserves.  While the world's other fastest growing importer, India, is plagued by a growing gap between coal supply and power demand that it is unable to fill domestically, this is not the case in China.  The spike in Chinese demand for imported coal is therefore a more complex (and less easily predictable) phenomenon that requires careful examination if the world is to understand what impact China might have on global energy markets in the coming decade.

In this paper Richard Morse and Gang He devise a model that explains Chinese coal import patterns and that can allow the coal market to understand, and to some degree predict, China's coal import behavior.  They argue that the unique structure of the Chinese coal market creates a series of key arbitrage relationships between Chinese domestic coal markets and international coal markets that determine Chinese import patterns.

The implications of this argument are significant for the development of the global coal trade in the coming decade.  The arbitrage relationships that Morse and He describe directly link the domestic price of coal in China to the global price of coal. Developments in China's domestic coal market will be a dominant factor determining global coal prices and trade flows (and by implication power prices in many regions).  This makes understanding the domestic Chinese coal market, which operates according to a unique economic and political logic, crucial for any participant in the global markets.

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Gang He

Providing food security for a world that will be warmer, more populous, and continually developing requires the implementation of sound policies that enhance food and agricultural consumption, production, incomes, and trade. FSE is in the midst of hosting a two-year, 12-lecture symposium series on Global Food Policy and Food Security.

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Starting winter 2011, FSE will bring the world's leading policy experts in the fields of food and agricultural development to Stanford University to participate in an integrated seminar series on pro-poor growth and food security policy. The series, funded by a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, will consist of twelve lectures delivered on the Stanford campus over the course of two years.

"Providing food security for a world that will be warmer, more populous, and continually developing requires the implementation of sound policies that enhance agricultural production, incomes, and resource stewardship," said FSE director Rosamond L. Naylor.

"New ideas and exchanges are needed to meet this challenge and this seminar series intends to facilitate that process."

Participants will address the major themes of hunger and rural poverty, agricultural productivity, resource and climate constraints on agriculture, and food and agriculture policy. The series will draw heavily from economics, and will embrace polices related to demand, supply, price formation, marketing, trade and development.

"We focus this series on policy because it has proven to be extremely difficult to develop successful projects for hunger and poverty alleviation without first ensuring that sound policies are in play," noted Walter P. Falcon, FSE deputy director and project director. "Even the best-designed programs and projects at the local scale often fail due to counter-productive national policies."

The specific challenges will be to supply sufficient food at reasonable prices, to provide economic access to that food by all segments of society, and to do so without destroying the environment in the process, said Naylor.

In addition to lecturing, participants will write a significant paper that brings together new, relevant thinking about a particular topic area. At the end of the series, a volume of edited papers on international food security and food policy issues will be published. The volume will be designed for M.A. programs and mid-career professionals-individuals who later in their careers will have policy responsibilities. All the materials, including the videotaped lectures, will be freely available on the FSE website.

"We see an important opportunity to complement other efforts that have been funded by the Gates Foundation," said Naylor. "For example, the lecture series and educational volume are expected to contribute to the curriculum of the new Collaborative Master of Science in Agricultural and Applied Economics (CMAAE) program of the African Economic Research Consortium, partially funded by the foundation."

The lecture series will also target audiences in South Asia, and in particular India where there are more malnourished people than in all of sub-Saharan Africa.

The grant also provides funding to produce a specialized educational unit on food policy and food security for high school students. FSE will work closely with Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE) to complete this project.

With the renewed interest in food, agriculture, and food security, it is important that the next generation have access to thoughtful commentary about global food issues, said Falcon.

This grant is part of the foundation's Agricultural Development initiative, which is working with a wide range of partners to provide millions of small farmers in the developing world with tools and opportunities to boost their yields, increase their incomes, and build better lives for themselves and their families. The Foundation is working to strengthen the entire agricultural value chain-from seeds and soil to farm management and market access-so that progress against hunger and poverty is sustainable over the long term.

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TZA09 1213 GATES0175 Courtesy of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Kate Marvel has been named the second annual Perry Fellow for the 2010-2011 academic year.

The Perry Fellowship honors an early or mid-career researcher from the United States or abroad with a record of "outstanding work in natural science, engineering or mathematics...who is dedicated to solving international security problems." Marvel, 29, will spend the year at CISAC conducting research on two projects, Understanding the Regional Consequences of Global Climate Change and Game Changers for Nuclear Energy.

"I'm very honored to be recognized," said Marvel, "but truly all of my colleagues would be deserving of this fellowship. I look forward to working with them as my research progresses over the next year."

Marvel spent the past year at CISAC as a postdoctoral fellow after studying at the University of Cambridge where she received her PhD in applied mathematics and theoretical physics. In addition to researching her project, Modeling Distributed Electric Grids, Marvel co-chaired CISAC's weekly Thursday research seminar with Lynn Eden.

Marvel holds a BA in physics and astronomy from the University of California at Berkeley and has worked at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, California, and the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences in South Africa.   She is active in outreach work and has lectured in settings as diverse as a community center in Lesotho, a physics institute in Tehran, and the Secret Garden Party Festival in the UK.

William J. Perry and the Perry Fellowship
Perry earned bachelor's and master's degrees in mathematics from Stanford in 1949 and 1950, and a doctorate from Pennsylvania State University. He went on to found the Silicon Valley electronics company ESL, build a venture capital company and pursue a distinguished career in public service. At the heart of Perry's work is a commitment to bring the rigors of science to international security issues. The William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at Stanford University will pursue this commitment.

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This figure represents possible 21st century increases in summer temperatures, showing the greatest rises (in red) in particular regions.

Image data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset. Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled climate projections derived from CMIP3 data and served at: http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/, described by Maurer et al (2007)
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In 2009 China, the world's largest coal producer, in seemingly a counterintuitive shift, became the world's largest coal importer at the same time.  The resulting realignment of the global coal trade has altered global prices for coal and power, and may be the harbinger of an "Asian coal decade" to come. 

Drawing on their recent presentation at Coaltrans Asia 2010, PESD researchers Gang He and Richard Morse examine the recent trend of soaring Chinese coal imports, and offer a theory of what will drive this long term coal import/export balance between China and the world in the next 10 years.  He and Morse argue that China's voracious appetite for imported coal is largely profit driven and takes advantage of key arbitrage relationships in the global market.  But those relationships are in turn largely a function of key political economy issues in China's domestic energy markets. 

Major coal and power sector reforms,  such as coal sector consolidation and coal-power integration, will impact domestic coal prices and therefore will largely drive China's import trends going forward.  Thus China's shift to imports is not a paradigm shift in global markets, but rather a harbinger of greater trade volatility in the future.

616 Serra St.
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Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

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Allegra McLeod, Post Doctoral Fellow for the Program on Global Justice, and Kieran Oberman, Post Doctoral Fellow for the Program on Global Justice and the Center for Ethics in Society, are seen preparing for a session of Introduction to Global Justice. Each year the program's Post Doctoral Fellows have the opportunity, as part of their appointment, to teach the Stanford course which includes recent work in political theory on global justice. The course is designed to encourage students to think critically about some of the important questions regarding such issues as global poverty, human rights, fair trade, immigration and climate change. Questions include: Do developed countries have a duty to aid developing countries? When is humanitarian intervention justified? and Is torture ever justified? Readings include Charles Beitz, Thomas Pogge and John Rawls.
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Over the past two decades, Indonesia's coal industry has transformed itself from being an unknown, minor player in Asia's coal markets to the world's largest exporter of steam coal. In what is likely the most detailed analysis of the Indonesian coal industry ever released, Dr. Bart Lucarelli tells the story of how Indonesia created this world-scale industry over two decades despite challenges created by widespread government corruption, a weak legal system, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and the fall of the Soeharto government in 1998.

The paper argues that key physical and technical factors, along with regulatory and political factors, have acted as the primary drivers of the industry's phenomenal growth over the past two decades and will be the most important factors for consideration over the next two decades.  It also discusses current estimates of Indonesia's coal resources and reserves, the role played by location and geological factors in the development of its coal resources, the future impacts of the passage of Indonesia's Mining Law of 2009 and its related implementing regulations, and how these issues might affect the coal industry's structure and performance before 2020.

 

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University of New Mexico
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616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
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Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

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