Science and Technology
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Patrick Meier will be presenting the preliminary results of his dissertation research that draws on a nested analysis approach. The results are from the first half of his dissertation research--namely a large-N study to determine whether technology  access is a statistically significant predictor of protest frequency in countries under repressive rule.

Patrick Meier is a PhD Candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts University and a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI). Patrick's dissertation research seeks to determine whether local access to new media and digital technologies changes the balance of power between repressive regimes and civil resistance movements. He also co-authored an applied econometric study related to his research for Harvard University's Berkman Center for the Study of Internet and Society. Patrick has consulted on projects directly related to his dissertation research. Patrick is on the Boards of Ushahidi, DigiActive and Digital Democracy, and a graduate of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA). Patrick has presented his research worldwide and is regularly interviewed by specialized and popular press.

http://www.thetibetconnection.org/ournextprogram.html

Summary of the Seminar
Patrick Meier, a PhD Candidate at Fletcher School, Tufts University introduced his research to investigate the relationship between increased availability of ICTs and popular resistance movements.

A key question in the relatively new field of digital activism is whether new technologies will help or hinder efforts to remove authoritarian governments. What we tend to see are patterns of repression by regimes, followed by circumvention as activists find ways to work around new restrictions. The ability to learn and adapt would seem to be crucial in determining whether activists or governments gain the upper hand.

When studying this area more closely, a number of research gaps emerge. Firstly, many studies use ‘information revolution' and ‘internet' interchangeably; this fails to recognize the importance of other technologies such as mobile phones. Secondly, discourses from complexity science that model how networks operate have not yet been brought into this literature. Thirdly, since the majority of studies to date are qualitative in nature, there is a real lack of quantitative analysis. The result is that we are left with a collection of anecdotes, some demonstrating that technology has promoted activism, and others detailing how repressive regimes are using technology successfully for their own ends. This anecdotal approach produces little clarity about the relationship between technology and political activism.

One of the aims of Patrick's dissertation research is to help fill this quantitative void. He is currently conducting a large-N study that will try to answer the question: are ICTs a statistically significant predictor of protest activism? The study looks at 38 countries between1990 and 2007. Countries were selected using two criteria: first, whether they were defined as having a score in the range -5 to -10 on the Polity IV measure of autocratic tendency; second, whether they were featured amongst the prominent examples in the existing literature about digital activism. To measure levels of protest activity, Patrick will be using a data set that uses Reuters newswire reports. Control variables include population, levels of unemployment, internal wars and elections.

Preliminary findings are quite counter intuitive, suggesting that there is a negative relationship between increasing use of technologies like mobile phones and numbers of protests. Recognizing some of t he inherent problems and limitations associated with a large-N study, Patrick will also be conducting detailed qualitative research into four case study countries to gain a better understanding of how technology impacts activism in different contexts.

Patrick will be updating progress and results of his research at his blog iRevolution.

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CDDRL Fellow 2010-2011
Meier.jpg PhD

Patrick Meier is the Director of Crisis Mapping at Ushahidi and the co-founder of the International Network of Crisis Mappers. He serves on the boards of the Meta-Activism Project (MAP) and Digital Democracy. Patrick was previously the co-director of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative's (HHI) Program on Crisis Mapping and Early Warning. He has consulted for several international organizations on numerous crisis mapping and early warning projects in Africa, Asia and Europe.

Patrick is completing his PhD at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. His dissertation focuses on the the impact of information and communication technologies on the balance of power between repressive regimes and popular movements. He has an MA in International Affairs from Columbia University and is an alum of the Sante Fe Institute's (SFI) Complex Systems Summer School.

Patrick blogs at iRevolution.net

Patrick Meier Fletcher School of Law Speaker Tufts University
Seminars

Mobile phones are transforming lives in low-income countries faster than ever imagined.  The effect is particularly dramatic in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, where mobile phones have often represented the first modern infrastructure of any kind.  The iconic image of cell phones in Africa is the market woman, surrounding by her goods while making calls to potential clients in the capital city.  Equally common are the slogans of mobile phone companies promising a better life for those who use it. 

Yet do these images and slogans reflect the reality of what cell phones can do?  Cell phones are being adopted by the rural and urban poor at a surprising rate, far exceeding cell phone companies' projections. An emerging body of research suggests that mobile phones are improving households' access to information and reducing costs, thereby making markets more efficient and increasing incomes.  These impacts have occurred without NGOs or donor investments - but as a positive externality from the IT sector.

Governments, donors and NGOs have noticed the potential of information technology in achieving development goals in a variety of sectors, including agriculture, education, health, financial services and governance.  Mobile phones can greatly facilitate the effectiveness of development programs, but are needed in partnership with the private sector. And while cell phone coverage reaches over 60% of the population in most African countries, other constraints to cell phone adoption - namely pricing and handset cost - should be addressed.

Jenny Aker has worked extensively in Central, North and West Africa for the past ten years for NGOs, international organizations and universities. Her research uses field work and field experiments to better understand field-driven development problems, primarily by teaming up with NGOs and program implementers in an effort to link research with policy and implementation.

Jenny is currently involved in three main areas of research. The first assesses the impact of information technology (mobile phones) on development outcomes, namely farmers’ and traders’ welfare, market performance, labor outcomes, literacy rates and early warning systems. Based upon her previous work in Niger, she is collaborating with Catholic Relief Services in Niger on Project ABC (Alphabétisation de Base par Cellulaire), which uses cell phones as a learning tool to allow literacy participants to read and write in their local languages via SMS. The project takes a rigorous impact evaluation approach, assessing the impact of cell phones on literacy rates and farmers’ marketing behavior. Her second area of research involves assessing the impact of climate change on farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel, with a particular focus on Mali. Her third area of research evaluates the impact of specific development interventions -- including food aid distributions, local purchases, and cash vouchers – on producers’ welfare and market performance in the Sahel.

In September 2009, Jenny joined Tufts University as an Assistant Professor in the Economics Department and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.

Wallenberg Theater

Jenny Aker Assistant Professor Speaker Fletcher School, Tufts University
Seminars
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Abstract
Since 2004, Omidyar Network, the philanthropic investment firm of eBay founder, Pierre Omidyar, has been investing in market-based efforts with the potential for large-scale, catalytic social impact. Technology is a significant focus of its work, as it can greatly improve the quality of life, reaching millions of people efficiently and easily. Matt Halprin, partner, and Stephen King, director, Investments, will discuss the organization's pioneering approach to philanthropy, the developing world context for technology, and innovative examples of liberation technology from the field.

Matt Halprin, Partner
Matt leads Omidyar Network's Media, Markets & Transparency initiative, supporting technologies that promote transparency, accountability, and trust across media, markets, and government. Within this initiative, his team pursues investments in Social Media, Marketplaces, and Government Transparency. In his role as Partner, Matt builds Omidyar Network’s team of talented investment professionals and works with portfolio organizations to help them succeed.

Matt has more than 20 years of business experience, including six at eBay. As Vice President, Global Trust and Safety at eBay, he led a team of 90 statisticians, policy managers, and product managers. He also helped coordinate the efforts of 2,000 customer support personnel to increase revenue while minimizing fraud and other trust-reducing behavior. Prior to eBay, Matt served as a Partner and Vice President at the Boston Consulting Group, where he worked with technology clients on issues of corporate strategy and corporate development. Previously, Matt was Vice President of Marketing and Business Development at Quadlux, a VC-backed developer of technology-based ovens that was later sold to GE and Hobart.

Matt is on the Boards of Wikimedia Foundation (Wikipedia), Sunlight Foundation, DonorsChoose.org, Goodmail Systems and Management Leadership for Tomorrow, which supports the next generation of minority leaders in the United States.  He graduated with High Distinction as a Baker Scholar from Harvard Business School and holds a BS in mechanical engineering from Stanford University.

Stephen King, Director, Investments
Stephen brings Omidyar Network exceptional experience in applying media and technology to create positive social impact. Based in London, Stephen focuses on expanding our efforts outside the U.S. in the Social Media and Government Transparency investment areas. He also makes investments across all areas within the Media, Markets & Transparency initiative.

Prior to Omidyar Network, Stephen served as the Chief Executive of the BBC World Service Trust, where he led a period of sustained growth that included building programs in more than 40 countries in the developing world. Stephen helped establish the Trust’s international reputation as one of the largest and most successful organizations using media and communications to improve the lives of the world’s poor and promote better governance and transparency worldwide. Prior to the BBC, Stephen was the Executive Director of the International Council on Social Welfare, an international organization working to promote social development. Stephen has also held positions with nonprofit organizations HelpAge International, Help the Aged, and Voluntary Service Overseas.

Stephen is a board member of CARE International in the U.K. He holds an MA in Oriental and African Studies from the University of London.

Summary of the Seminar
Matt Halprin is a Partner leading Omidyar Network's Media and Stephen King is the Director of Investments and is based in London. They introduced us to the work of Omidyar Network which invests in market-based efforts to give people the technology tools they need to improve their lives.

The network was set up in 2004 by Pierre Omidyar, founder of eBay, and his wife Pam.  It comprises both a venture capital fund and a grant-making foundation.  The network has a strong focus on individual empowerment and is committed to market-based solutions, believing that business is one of the best mechanisms for achieving sustainable social impact. Omidyar looks to invest in projects that have potential to impact large numbers of people and that show signs of real innovation - for example, new business models or new markets.

So far $307 million has been committed, with $138 million going to for-profit investments and $169 million to non-profit grants. There are two broad areas of focus:

  • Access to capital: This encompasses projects around microfinance, entrepreneurship and property rights.
  • Media, markets and transparence: This encompasses projects around social media, marketplaces and government transparency. Omidyar are particularly interested in the role of journalism in ensuring accountability of governments.

Projects in the Unities States include:

  • The Sunlight Foundation - works to make information about Congress and Federal government more accessible and meaningful to citizens; created the first searchable site for all federal government contracts to monitor where money is going.
  • Global Integrity - uses quantitative and qualitative analysis to provide a scorecard tracking governance and corruption in different countries.

In the developing world, Omidyar looks to supports access to greater information and government transparency, which it views as key drivers of prosperity. The network is supporting global organizations, national partners in three African countries (Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya) and is establishing a pan-African mechanism for smaller grants. Current global projects include:

  • Ushahidi - an open source platform to report and share data in the aftermath of a crisis. Omidyar will be working to help Ushahidi to build traffic to the site and to tackle the challenge of verifying reports.
  • Infonet - a web portal that acts as an information hub for all national and devolved budgets in Kenya; currently used by NGOs, citizen groups and the media.
  • Mzalendo - a one stop shop for citizens to track the activities of parliamentarians in Kenya.
  • FrontlineSMS - a two way communication tool using laptops and mobile phones for organizations without internet access.

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Matt Halprin Partner Speaker Omidyar Network
Stephen King Director of Investments Speaker Omidyar Network
Seminars
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Over the years, Kim Jong Il has pursued four inter-related goals that together might be considered as an implicit national security strategy:

 

  1. reviving the economy; 
  2. buttressing domestic support at a time of leadership transition; 
  3. widening North Korea's "diplomatic space" through 360-degree diplomacy; and
  4. shoring up the country´s aging military.  

These goals are tightly linked but also involve significant trade-offs that may offer greater possibilities than ususally supposed for solving the issue of its nuclear weapons program.

 

Dr. John Merrill is the head of the Northeast Asia Division of U.S. State Department´s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and Adjunct Professor in the School of International Studies of The Johns Hopkins University.  He is the author of Korea: The Peninsular Origins of the War, 1945-50 and The Cheju-do Rebellion as well as numerous journal articles.

Philippines Conference Room

John Merrill Head of the Northeast Asia Division of U.S. State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Adjunct Professor in the School of International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Speaker
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On September 5th, Ron Raikes was tragically killed in a farm accident. Ron was a stellar Nebraska farmer, an outstanding state senator, a renowned educator, and a good friend of FSE. During the winter quarter of 2008/9, he (and his brother Jeff of the Gates Foundation) spoke to the members of our world food economy class about farming and being a farmer in Nebraska. Ross Feehan was an undergraduate member of that class who went on to become a summer intern on the Raikes farm. Ross’s essay on his experiences is presented here as a tribute to Ron. Roz Naylor Director, FSE

Growing up I always wanted one thing around this time of year: a ride with Santa. Yes, a sky-high journey with that burly, bearded Claus who reportedly could offer children a chance to see the world differently. It seemed like an adventure to me, one that would surely offer a more thorough understanding of Christmas.

As summer recedes and December approaches it appears that my wish was granted this past summer while riding shotgun to and from a farm near the small town of Ashland, Nebraska alongside a man who seemed to a twenty-year-old everything I imagined Santa Claus to be at age seven. For five weeks in the company of a farm operator I had the opportunity to broaden my understanding of commercial food production and the managerial complexity, associated risk, and arrant talent involved in much of agriculture today.

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With three separate entities—crop production, cattle feeding, and conservation contracting—the “farm” I traveled to everyday was anything but pedestrian. Most mornings began during the dim hours headed north on a still Route 6, but my early conversations with him were exuberant. In between, and sometimes even during, calls to cattle buyers or astray truckers searching for highways into Ashland free of scales my host would talk to me about cattle market volatility, the method (or madness) ofnegotiation in the feedlot industry, and how trades for heifers and steers from Salina, Kansas hasten grain and livestock futures contracting in Chicago, Illinois. One topic led to the next, and by the time we crossed the railroads at Waverly, we were usually discussing broad issues ranging from the environmental concerns of industrial farming to the social tension in America between people who pejoratively view the actions of Corn Belt farmers and people who produce the food that fills those critics’ plates.

Our driving conversations soon carried over into late mornings and afternoons—anytime when the space for conversation transpired. “The marketplace is fiercely competitive,” he would say to explain the indistinct security governmental support for crop production provides. Daily, his business was subject to environmental and market persuasions. Although federal insurance policies and subsidies were valuable for his business, he was still one of many farmers who jockeyed within a bullish and bearish economy. Prior to hedging his crops, for example, he had to contemplate the eminent yield successes on farms in Iowa in addition to this summer’s drought-induced crop loss in Argentina. But he also could not forget about policy makers in China and Europe who through their governmental measures influence world demand and supply of staple grains. These conversations depicted the realities of an interdependent food market around the globe and helped me distinguish applications of macro-agricultural studies.

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Everything I did became part of the learning experience. How could one truly know the size of a bushel of corn without crawling into a storage bin and scooping a truck load into a delivery chute? But before that corn was picked, the farmer had to select a specific variety to be planted from among the many genetically modified products advertised in catalogs and at events similar to a Monsanto luncheon I attended. The “relative maturity” grading system didn’t mean much to me until I ventured out through the warrens of corn and soybean rows to monitor milk lines and black layer emergence in different fields planted with disparate seeds. Working on the farm allowed me to learn hands-on of the agricultural science and technology I had previously studied within classroom walls.

Familiarizing myself with the farm’s operations did not come without mistakes, however. I will never forget the dexterous and visionary employees who taught me not just that wearing shorts while working on a farm is equivalent to modeling a Speedo at a consulting interview, but more importantly how complicated producing food is with advanced mechanized systems. Whether it be welding an auger for grain transfer, converting a piece of scrap metal into a rotating laptop computer harness for the cattle chute, or actually building a propane-powered irrigation pump, the competency of those with whom I worked was remarkable. I learned untold lessons and skills from colleagues, reminding me that a cattle pen could also be an educational setting. 

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But no business could be productive without a savvy leader. During my last few weeks in Nebraska I spent time alongside the manager I so esteemed. His ability to synthesize futures and cash market strategies, reconcile input and output data to avert risk, and heed both large issues and small in a multifaceted business was phenomenal. The organization was a machine in itself—protean, even despite its seasonality and daily routine.

I could spend many more months in Ashland refining my tractor driving capabilities and acquiring more knowledge of agricultural management and economics. I wish I could witness the crops reach adulthood and the combines combing those matured fields during the autumn months. Yet, I am grateful for the time I had there, and what I learned will help guide me as I continue to navigate through complex issues facing U.S. agriculture and international food security.

This year I will still anticipate Christmas and its enduring celebrity, but I will rest in bed just a bit more calmly on Santa’s night. My conversations in a Toyota truck this summer and the knowledge gained from the entire experience in Nebraska have sated my sleigh-riding hunger and enhanced my studies of food’s complexities. This farm experience was that kind of ride for me, allowing me to evaluate the impact of U.S. commercial farmers within a global agricultural network, admire those who cultivate what we eat, and seek a deeper understanding of food as a livelihood and resource.

Ever wanted to see the North Pole? Try Nebraska.

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