Tokyo Foundation - Shorenstein APARC Joint Symposium

Scholars and affiliates of Stanford’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and experts in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies have offered commentary to media about the U.S. presidential election and its impact on U.S.-Asia relations.

The next administration's policy directions were also the focus of Shorenstein APARC-sponsored events held in Seoul, Stanford and Tokyo. A select list of links to commentary and an article about the Stanford event are located below. The list will continue to be updated.

Post-election commentary

"Trump says he won't ratify the TPP, what are the implications?" cites Donald K. Emmerson, Talk Media News, Nov. 29, 2016

"U.S. economy and security under the new president," television segment with Takeo Hoshi, also cites symposium held in Tokyo, Nikkei CNBC (in Japanese), Nov. 18, 2016

"Our allies are afraid. Here's how Trump can reassure them.," by Michael McFaul, from Seoul, Washington Post, Nov. 17, 2016

"Trump unlikely to drastically change U.S. defense policy on South Korea," cites Shorenstein APARC affiliates and symposium held in Seoul, The Korea Herald, Nov. 15, 2016

"Int'l community needs realistic goal for N.K. nuke talks," interview with William J. Perry, Yonhap News (in English and Korean), Nov. 15, 2016

"The Repudiation of American Internationalism and What It Means for Japan," by Daniel Sneider, Toyo Keizai (in English and Japanese), Nov. 11, 2016

"S.Korea-U.S. alliance won't change because of the election," cites Kathleen Stephens, Yonhap News, Nov. 9, 2016

"U.S. Economic and Foreign Policy under the New Administration," includes video of the Tokyo panel discussion, Nov. 20, 2016

Pre-election commentary

"Stanford scholars analyze the next U.S. administration's Asia-Pacific policy," Caixin Media (in Chinese), Nov. 7, 2016

"Shorenstein APARC scholars explore Asia policy challenges facing next administration," Shorenstein APARC, Oct. 31, 2016

Cautious optimism in Asia toward Trump administration

By Lisa Griswold

U.S. President Barack Obama’s term will end in January 2017 and a new administration led by Donald Trump is expected to take office, so: what does this mean for U.S. policy toward Asia?

A panel discussion featuring scholars from the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) in the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) convened at Stanford on Tuesday to discuss policy directions and to offer perspectives of reactions to the election in South Korea and Japan, having just returned from there.

“This election was contentious, divisive, and at many times, surprising. There were different opinions about the results, but in general, people expressed a lot of concern throughout Asia,” Stanford professor Gi-Wook Shin said in his introductory remarks.

Shin, who is also the director of Shorenstein APARC, moderated the event, which included remarks from Michael Armacost, a Shorenstein APARC fellow and former U.S. ambassador to Japan and the Philippines; Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea; and Takeo Hoshi, an FSI senior fellow and director of Shorenstein APARC’s Japan Program.

Unprecedented election

Trump, who has never before held a political role, has unique credentials compared to his predecessors and his views break from the Republican Party establishment, traditionally pro-free trade and active in foreign policy.

“It’s difficult to guess what Trump’s foreign policy reflexes will be,” said Armacost, a former National Security Council official, who emphasized that international relations are often prompted by unplanned occurrences.

Trump has said, for example, that he would withdraw the United States from the North American Free Trade Agreement, rescind its membership in the World Trade Organization, and scrap the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade deal brokered by the Obama administration.

The president-elect, however, has amended some views communicated during the campaign, and is likely to rely on his national security advisors for guidance on foreign policy issues.

“Trump may well be a skillful bargainer, but I suspect that striking a real estate deal is a lot simpler than negotiating with foreign sovereign governments on issues that carry a lot of cultural and historical baggage,” said Armacost, who served as U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs from 1984-89.

“Still his pragmatism, I think, is a virtue. Trump seems a smart fellow, and he sure has a steep learning curve ahead. We can only hope he will manage it well,” he added.

Uncertain path, opportunity

Echoing Armacost, Hoshi said Trump’s changed positions over the past few weeks have made it difficult to predict what’s ahead for U.S. economic and trade policy.

Trump, who campaigned with a message of restoring lost jobs in America, urged that the U.S. government reform several areas of economic policy and governance, such as its interaction with the Federal Reserve and implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act, a set of regulatory reform measures enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis.

Hoshi, an economist, suggested Trump faces an uphill battle in his attempts to reconcile campaign rhetoric and political reality, especially in the midst of the president-elect’s break from the Republican Party establishment and promises made to voters.

The view of the election from Japan, Hoshi added, is that the United States is receding from its leadership role in the world, particularly in the area of trade.

Trump promised early on to nix the TPP and has remained steadfast, releasing a video message shortly after the election confirming his position. That decision is interpreted in Japan as a symbol of America’s withdrawal, said Hoshi, noting that a similar sentiment on trade would have been expected if Hillary Clinton were elected since she too promised to rollback the deal.

“The United States was the leader behind the TPP, but now it’s saying ‘we are out.’ For Asian people, this represents a really drastic change and a loss of credibility,” Hoshi said.

Asian countries, however, could use a void left by an American departure in trade policy to step in. “Maybe some countries will see it as an opportunity,” he said.

Unease over democratic processes

Stephens, who was in Seoul when the U.S. election results were called, said Koreans shared “a sense of unease about our [mutual] democratic processes.”

South Korea, like the United States, has a democratic system of government – a republic. The Asian country is currently embroiled in its own political upheaval as calls for the resignation of President Park Geun-hye continue following accusations of corruption.

Stephens, who served in the U.S. Foreign Service for 35 years before coming to Stanford, also noted that there was some trepidation about a Trump-led administration in Korean policy circles. It’s a known ambition of policy advisors to forge connections in anticipation of the new administration, but the Trump/Pence win was so unexpected that now there’s a “scramble to make those relations,” she said.

The president-elect’s phone calls and meetings with foreign leaders provided some reassurance though, particularly with South Korea and Japan, two countries with formal U.S. alliances that Trump had initially questioned over their nuclear policy and cost of local U.S. military presence, she said.

“The priority for the Trump administration should be to affirm the importance of U.S. alliances and to make very clear the commitment to securing them,” Stephens said.

A new U.S. administration also provides an opportunity to undertake a policy evaluation, which could carry implications for South Korea, in trade policy and its attempt to reengage North Korea, she said.

Stanford students are applying lean start-up techniques to some of the world’s most difficult foreign policy issues.

The fall 2016 quarter class, Hacking for Diplomacy: Tackling Foreign Policy Challenges with the Lean Launchpad, is a first-of-its-kind course for studying statecraft, created as a reflection of the best that Stanford and Silicon Valley offers in the way of pioneering paradigms. Hacking for Diplomacy is co-taught by Joe Felter, a senior researcher at Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). It is based on the Lean LaunchPad methodology, created by course designer Steve Blank, a Stanford lecturer and entrepreneur.

The teaching team also includes Jeremy Weinstein, a political science professor at the Freeman Spogli Institute; Zvika Krieger, the U.S. Department of State's Representative to Silicon Valley; and Steve Weinstein, the CEO of MovieLabs.

'Breaking free'

The class is based on cultivating ideas and imagination, breaking free of the traditional “business plan” approach to rolling out new products and solutions. In the case of diplomacy, the lean start-up method is fast and flexible above all. It has three key principles based on concepts such as "mission model canvas," "beneficiary development," and "agile engineering,” according to Felter, also a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

“The first principle is accepting that any proposed solution to a problem whether in the commercial world or public sector is initially just a set of untested hypotheses – at best informed guesses – as to what may solve the needs of a customer or beneficiary,” said Felter.

Regarding beneficiary development, he said, experiential learning is central.

“There are no answers to complex challenges ‘inside the building,’ if you will, and students must ‘get out of the building’ to find out –in as intimate detail as possible – the various pains and gains experienced by the various beneficiaries, stakeholders and end users that must be addressed to find viable and deployable solutions to their problems,” Felter said.

The last principle, “agile development,” is based on the view that proposed solutions are generated and constantly updated through a collecting of data and feedback. This in turn, Felter explained, is rapidly tested and new solutions are designed based this iterative process.

Overall, he noted, the core idea is that entrepreneurs are everywhere, and that lean startup principles favor experimentation over elaborate planning, offering a faster way to get a desired product or solution to market.

Real-world instruction

In the class, student teams analyze real-world foreign policy challenges. They then use lean startup principles to find new approaches to seemingly intractable or very complex problems that have bedeviled the foreign policy world. The teams actually work with mentors and officials in the U.S. State Department and other civilian agencies and private companies.

Each week, the teams present their findings (“product”) to a panel of faculty and mentors, who will critique their solutions. The outcomes will range, as they vary from problem to problem. Examples include human rights, food security, refuges and labor recruitment, and mosquito disease threats, among others.

On Oct. 10, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited the class. “Brilliant minds are applying technology to world’s toughest problems. Their perspective will inform,” Kerry tweeted after the class.

Kerry’s State Department gave the students seven challenges to address – human trafficking, avoiding space collisions, tracking nuclear devices, and countering violent extremism. The students will explore and analyze these issues through the rest of the quarter.

One student, Kaya Tilev, later asked Kerry what the students should be striving for to make their “solutions” a reality for national policymakers.

Kerry said, “Well, you’re doing it. You’re in it. You’re in the program. And I have absolute confidence if you come up with a viable solution it is going to be implemented, adopted, and institutionalized.”

Zvika Krieger, the state department official, told the students that Kerry was impressed with them and the class.

“He (Kerry) brought up our class in all of his meetings that day, including at a lunch with the CEOs/founders of Google, Airbnb, and Lyft; in a podcast interview with Wired magazine, and in remarks at the Internet Association's conference,” Krieger wrote in an email to them.

Global flashpoints are proliferating around the globe – the Syrian War, conflict and civil wars across the Middle East and in parts of Africa; the pursuit of weapons of mass destruction by states and non-state groups; the most significant flow of refugees since World War II; North Korea nuclear testing; Russian adventurism on its borders; China’s forays into the South China Sea; and a changing climate.

In other words, there is no shortage of thorny problems for young minds to solve as they embark on their careers.

‘Hungry to apply their energy’

Jeremy Weinstein, the political science professor, described the students as “hungry to apply their energy and talents to real-world problems, and to use hands-on experiences as a way of accelerating their learning.”

The class taps into that motivation by bringing together data scientists, engineers, and social scientist, he noted. In the end, the idea is for students to learn how to “innovate inside government.”

Weinstein is optimistic that this class – and a stronger connection between the State Department and Stanford’s technical and policy expertise – can drive more innovation inside government.

“Technology can play a critical role in addressing many of today’s foreign policy challenges, and this class is one new way for senior U.S. officials to tap into the passion, creativity and talent of Silicon Valley,” he said.

Hacking for defense

Last year, Felter and Blank also led a Hacking for Defense class based on the same lean start-up principles. Hacking for Diplomacy is co-listed as both an International Policy Studies and a Management Science and Engineering course – it counts for international relations and political science majors as well.

Blank, a consulting associate professor in engineering, told the Stanford News Service in a recent story that he seeks to cultivate in students a passion for giving back to society and their world.

“We’re going to create a network of entrepreneurial students who understand the diplomatic, policy and national security problems facing the country and get them engaged in partnership with islands of innovation in the Department of State,” said Blank, who also wrote about the new hacking for Diplomacy course in the Huffington Post.

“Teams must take these products out to the real world and ask potential users for feedback,” he noted.

An in memoriam event recognizing the legacy of Stephen W. “Steve” Bosworth was held last week. Organized by the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), the event drew Stanford faculty, students and community members, paying tribute to the foreign affairs scholar and three-time U.S. ambassador.

Bosworth, who died in January 2016, was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies in 2014. During that time, he delivered three lectures at Stanford that highlighted lessons from his tenure in public service and in academia as dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

Bosworth had also been a key participant over the years at Shorenstein APARC. He was active with the New Beginnings project that sought to bolster the U.S.-South Korea alliance and the Koret Workshop series focused on dialogue about North Korea.

Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow Michael Armacost described him as a “longtime friend and colleague” and a mentor, having both worked to lay groundwork for the restoration of democracy in the Philippines as U.S. ambassador there.

“I admired Steve as a consummate diplomat, but he was a lot more than that,” Armacost said. “He was a man of intellectual acuity. He was a man of moral fortitude. He had a wry sense of humor. And, he had that remarkable ability of being able to stand-up and speak thoughtfully about almost any subject.”

Armacost was followed by remarks from Kathleen Stephens, the William J. Perry Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, and Sung Kim, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea, and discussion with the audience.

The collection of Bosworth’s Payne lectures has been published as a booklet. The booklet can be viewed here.

The Japan Program held the fourth annual Stanford Juku on Japanese Political Economy from September 29 – October 1. Over 40 scholars from various parts of the US and Japan participated in the conference, which took place at the Oksenberg Conference Center at Encina Hall. The first portion of the program (9/29 and morning of 9/30) focused on research in political science/political economy and international relations, and the latter portion of the program (afternoon of 9/30 and 10/1) focused on research in economics.

The main goal of the program is to attract young researchers who will go on to become leaders in the study of Japanese politics and Japanese economy in the near future.  Distinctive features of the Juku are the long times allotted to each paper to allow for two in-depth discussants and discussion among participants, as well as ample time for informal discussions and interactions among participants allowing for collaborations and expansion of the network of researchers on Japan in political science and economics. We received a large volume of quality paper submissions this year, which made the selection process very competitive. 

The first day included four papers in political science/political economy and international relations. Daniel Smith from Harvard University presented a paper co-authored by Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College) and Teppei Yamamoto (Massachusetts Institute Technology) entitled, "Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians' Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan," with discussants Ethan Scheiner (University of California, Davis) and Mike Tomz (Stanford University).

Amy Catalinac (New York University) presented a paper co-authored by Frances Rosenbluth (Yale University) and Hikaru Yamagishi (Yale University) entitled "Party Strategies and Foreign Policy in Post-Electoral Reform Japan." The Discussants for the paper were Gary Cox (Stanford) and Teppei Yamamoto (MIT).

Jacques Hymans from University of Southern California presented his paper on “The Limits of Japan's Energy Angst: The Case of Geothermal Power.” Mark Thurber (Stanford) and Steve Vogel (University of California, Berkeley) were the discussants.

The fourth paper was “Democratic Community and Its Consequences: Evidence from Japan” by Jonathan Chu (Stanford), discussed by Christina Davis (Princeton University) and Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego).

Christina Davis (Princeton) started off the second day by presenting her paper “Joining the Club: Accession to the GATT/WTO." Discussants were Jonathan Chu (Stanford) and Phillip Lipscy (Stanford).

The political science/political economy section ended with Megumi Naoi (UC, San Diego) presenting a paper co-authored by Chun-Fang Chiang (National Taiwan University), Jason Kuo (Post-doc, Georgetown University), Jing-tan Liu (National Taiwan University) entitled, "What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News? Experimental Evidence on PTA Diffusion in Japan and Taiwan." Discussants were Kenji Kushida (Stanford) and Yuki Takagi (Stanford). 

After lunch, two economics papers were presented.  Wataru Miyamoto (Bank of Canada) presented a paper co-authored by Thuy Lan Ngyuen (Santa Clara University) and Dmitriy Sergeyev (Bocconi University) entitled, "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan" with discussants Yuriy Gordonichenko (UC, Berkeley) and Johannes Wieland (UC, San Diego).

The second paper was “Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan”, by Robert Dekle (USC), Nobuhiko Kiyotaki (Princeton) and Tsutomu Miyagawa (Gakushuin University).  Huiyu Li (Federal Bank of San Francisco) and Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virgina University) were the discussants.  A group dinner followed the second day.

The final day included four papers in economics.  The first was “Will the Sun Also Rise? Five Growth Strategies for Japan” by Yoko Takeda (Mitsubishi Research Insitute).  Discussants were Michael Hutchison (US, Santa Cruz) and Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi University).

The second paper was "Natural Disaster and Natural Selection" by Hirofumi Uchida (Kobe University), Daisuke Miyakawa (Hitotsubashi), Kaoru Hosono (Gakushuin), Arito Ono (Chuo University), Taisuke Uchino (Daito Bunka University) and Iichiro Uesugi (Hitotsubashi).  Discussants were Nobuhiko Hibara (Waseda University) and Johannes Wieland (UC, San Diego).

Koichiro Ito (University of Chicago) presented a paper co-authored by Takanori Ida (Kyoto University) and Makoto Tanaka (GRIPS) entitled “Information Frictions, Switching Costs, and Selection on Elasticity: A Field Experiment on Electricity Tariff Choice.”  Karen Eggleston (Stanford) and Hitoshi Shigeoka (Simon Fraser University) were the discussants.

The final paper was “Good Jobs and Bad Jobs in Japan: 1982-2007” by Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi) and Takao Kato (Colegate University), discussed by Takeo Hoshi (Stanford) and David Vera (California State University, Fresno).