The Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, in conjunction with the Stanford Center for Population Research (SCPR), announces the availability of 2011–2012 pre-doctoral research assistantships in contemporary Asian demography. The research assistantships support pre-doctoral students working within a broad range of topics related to demographic change in Asia while they provide research assistance to Karen Eggleston, faculty director of AHPP, and Shripad Tuljapurkar, faculty director of SCPR.

DESCRIPTION

Research assistantships are available to Stanford University PhD candidates who have completed three quarters of graduate studies at Stanford and have made progress toward defining original research related to population aging, gender imbalance, inter-generational support, migration and health, or other topics related to demographic change in one or more countries of Asia. A minimum of three quarters of residence and participation in AHPP activities is required. AHPP and SCPR invite applications from a broad range of disciplines, including anthropology, biology, economics, demography, history, law, political science, and sociology.

Students on research assistantships (RAs) receive salary and tuition allowance for up to 10 units (depending on the time commitment) in autumn, winter and spring quarters of the 2011–12 academic year. In the summer, tuition allowance for an RA is usually for three units. The RA may choose to work between 10 hours (25% time) and 20 hours (50% time) per week during the quarters in which they are employed. The research assistance will be an extension of research related to the book co-edited by Eggleston and Tuljapurkar: Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea. Each RA also receives cubicle space at SCPR.

APPLICATION PROCESS

Applicants should send the following materials to the research assistantship coordinator, Lisa Lee:

• CV
• Description of research interests or a detailed dissertation prospectus. The description should be clear and concise, especially to readers outside your discipline, and should not exceed five double-spaced or three single-spaced typewritten pages.
• Description of previous RA experience and relevant skills, including in quantitative and qualitative analysis. This description should be no longer than one page.
• Copy of transcripts. Transcripts should cover all graduate work, including evidence of work recently completed.
• Two letters of recommendation from faculty or advisors, sent directly to AHPP.

Only those applications that contain the complete materials listed above will be considered.

Deadline for receipt of all materials is May 20, 2011.

Please address all materials to:

Lisa Lee, Administrative Associate for AHPP and SEAF
Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

llee888@stanford.edu
(650) 725-2429 (voice)
(650) 723-6530 (fax)

Policy brief: Climate trend and global crop production since 1980

Global warming is likely already taking a toll on world wheat and corn production, according to a new study led by Stanford University researchers. But the United States, Canada and northern Mexico have largely escaped the trend.

"It appears as if farmers in North America got a pass on the first round of global warming," said David Lobell, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science and center fellow at the Program on Food Security and the Environment at Stanford University. "That was surprising, given how fast we see weather has been changing in agricultural areas around the world as a whole."

Lobell and his colleagues examined temperature and precipitation records since 1980 for major crop-growing countries in the places and times of year when crops are grown. They then used crop models to estimate what worldwide crop yields would have been had temperature and precipitation had typical fluctuations around 1980 levels.

The researchers found that global wheat production was 5.5 percent lower than it would have been had the climate remained stable, and global corn production was lower by almost 4 percent. Global rice and soybean production were not significantly affected.

The United States, which is the world's largest producer of soybeans and corn, accounting for roughly 40 percent of global production, experienced a very slight cooling trend and no significant production impacts.

Outside of North America, most major producing countries were found to have experienced some decline in wheat and corn (or maize) yields related to the rise in global temperature. "Yields in most countries are still going up, but not as fast as we estimate they would be without climate trends," Lobell said.

Lobell is the lead author of the paper, Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, published May 5 online in Science Express.

Russia, India and France suffered the greatest drops in wheat production relative to what might have been with no global warming. The largest comparative losses in corn production were seen in China and Brazil.

Total worldwide relative losses of the two crops equal the annual production of corn in Mexico and wheat in France. Together, the four crops in the study constitute approximately 75 percent of the calories that humans worldwide consume, directly or indirectly through livestock, according to research cited in the study.

"Given the relatively small temperature trends in the U.S. Corn Belt, it shouldn't be surprising if complacency or even skepticism about global warming has set in, but this study suggests that would be misguided," Lobell said.

Since 1950, the average global temperature has increased at a rate of roughly 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade. But over the next two to three decades average global temperature is expected to rise approximately 50 percent faster than that, according to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With that rate of temperature change, it is unlikely that the crop-growing regions of the United States will continue to escape the rising temperatures, Lobell said.

"The climate science is still unclear about why summers in the Corn Belt haven't been warming. But most explanations suggest that warming in the future is just as likely there as elsewhere in the world," Lobell said.

"In other words, farmers in the Corn Belt seem to have been lucky so far."

This is the first study to come up with a global estimate for the past 30 years of what has been happening, Lobell said.

To develop their estimates, the researchers used publicly available global data sets from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and from the University of Delaware, University of Wisconsin, and McGill University.

The researchers also estimated the economic effects of the changes in crop yield using models of commodity markets.

"We found that since 1980, the effects of climate change on crop yields have caused an increase of approximately 20 percent in global market prices," said Wolfram Schlenker, an economist at Columbia University and a coauthor of the paper in Science.

He said if the beneficial effects of higher carbon dioxide levels on crop growth are factored into the calculation, the increase drops down to 5 percent.

"Five percent sounds small until you realize that at current prices world production of these four crops are together worth nearly $1 trillion per year," Schlenker said. "So a price increase of 5 percent implies roughly $50 billion per year more spent on food."

Rising commodity prices have so far benefited American farmers, Lobell and Schlenker said, because they haven't suffered the relative declines in crop yield that the rest of the world has been experiencing.

"It will be interesting to see what happens over the next decade in North America," Lobell said. "But to me the key message is not necessarily the specifics of each country. I think the real take-home message is that climate change is not just about the future, but that it is affecting agriculture now. Accordingly, efforts to adapt agriculture such as by developing more heat- and drought-tolerant crops will have big payoffs, even today. "

Justin Costa-Roberts, an undergraduate student at Stanford, is also a coauthor of the Science paper. David Lobell is a researcher in Stanford's Program on Food Security and the Environment, a joint program of Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Schlenker is an assistant professor at the School of International and Public Affairs and at the Department of Economics at Columbia.

The work was supported by a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation.

"Most of the people in the world are poor, so if we knew the economics of being poor, we would know much of the economics that really matters. Most of the world's poor people earn their living from agriculture, so if we knew the economics of agriculture, we would know much of the economics of being poor." - Theodore W. Schultz, accepting the Nobel Prize in Economics, December 8, 1979           

More than thirty years ago, Theodore W. Schultz won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on economic development and agriculture in developing countries. Last week, Cornell University Professor Christopher Barrett told Stanford students, faculty, and community members that Schultz's ideas suggest a powerful approach to breaking persistent cycles of poverty in modern rural Africa.

Barrett, a Professor of Applied Economics and Management and an expert in poverty and international development, visited the Stanford campus for a two-hour symposium entitled "Assisting the Escape from Persistent Ultra-Poverty in Rural Africa." He described the economics of poverty and agriculture in rural Africa as a series of downward spirals in environmental and human health.

The struggle to survive on insufficient resources, he explained, leads to disease and degradation that result in still deeper poverty. Escaping this cycle requires an influx of assets - a "lump of starting capital" in both private and public goods - that Barrett said the international community can provide.

"It takes money to make money," Barrett said. "Asset holdings, and their productivity through technology and markets, matter enormously."

When African farmers and pastoralists slip below a certain threshold of asset poverty, Barrett explained, they face negative feedbacks that set off a steep decline.

For example, a farmer who cultivates the same tiny plot of land year after year depletes soil nutrients to the point where even heavy fertilizer applications cannot revive the crop. Similarly, a pastoral family that begins with a small herd may become sedentary if they are unable to provide for the elderly and infirm while keeping their animals on the move. Stuck in one place, the herd exhausts local resources, and animals and humans alike suffer the health consequences of insufficient food and water.

A farmer who begins with plenty of land can sustain higher yields and invest surplus profits in education, health care, better equipment and still more land. But for the small farmer, incentives to invest in a better future are low, because the consequences of losing even a little income - an accelerated decline toward deeper poverty - are so severe.

Subsistence activity takes precedence, and when bad weather or disease strikes, the results are devastating. Limited access to credit, technology, and markets; weak government; and a harsh physical landscape make it still more difficult for rural Africans to invest in productive assets and recover from chance shocks.

These negative feedbacks and perverse incentives, Barrett said, make African poverty uniquely persistent.

While poor families in the developed world usually experience brief deprivation as a result of job loss or another isolated event, ultra-poor families in rural Africa have exhausted their land, livestock, and other productive assets. Without the means to restore natural and human capital, they may face a lifetime of poverty.

"In the US, poverty, while distressingly widespread, is a short-term phenomenon," Barrett noted. ""It is qualitatively and ethically different to talk about people who have very little hope of leaving poverty."

But Barrett said that the next generation of rural Africans has reason to be hopeful. While there is no one-size-fits-all approach, targeted investment could improve the outlook for many poor African nations. Barrett cited a generation of successful poverty relief efforts in Asia, where ultra-poverty rates in some countries have fallen from the high teens to less than five percent.

"East and Southeast Asia were at least as grim a generation ago as Africa is today," Barrett emphasized. "We know from the historical record that the world can move a lot of people out of poverty very quickly."

Citing Schultz's Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Barrett suggested that the international community focus first on reversing the cycles of decline that have pushed so many African farmers into meager subsistence agriculture.

Farm output, he said, universally impacts the rural poor. When output increases, poor farmers gain directly by selling their surplus. The extra supply also keeps local food prices low, benefiting the vast majority of rural Africans who consume more food than they produce.

Barrett described several possible "entry points" to stimulate agricultural productivity, including direct land and livestock grants, organized provision of rural education and health care, and renewed commitment to African crop research.

Private entrepreneurs, he said, are particularly well situated to invest in the technology and infrastructure needed to open rural markets, support soil and water conservation, and improve communication between buyers and sellers.

Barrett said that relief efforts should ultimately turn their attention to moving rural Africans out of agriculture. High rural population densities have compressed average farm sizes to a fraction of a hectare, he explained, making farming an unsustainable enterprise. More and more rural Africans are suffering the consequences of trying to do too much with too little.

"They find farming hard work," Barrett said, "and they'd like their kids to be able to find something else to do."

Barrett already sees a brighter future for those farmers and their children. "With governments and private investors already increasing their commitments to agriculture and rural development in Africa," he said, "I firmly believe we are in the early stages of being on the way."

This talk was the third in FSE's Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series.

Takeshi Kondo was undergoing training as a new Mitsubishi Electric systems engineer in Kobe, Japan when the massive 7.2-magnitude Great Hanshin earthquake struck in 1995. When Japan was hit by the double disaster of an 8.9-magnitude earthquake and a tsunami in March 2011, Kondo was at Stanford University participating in the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). The March tragedy called to mind the 1995 Kobe earthquake and underscored for him the strength of the U.S.-Japan relationship in the face of adversity.

Kondo, currently a manager for the Strategic IT Business Planning Department of Mitsubishi Electric, is a Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellow for the 2010–2011 academic year. During this rigorous and stimulating year, he has conducted research on non-entertainment applications for augmented reality (AR) technology, audited entrepreneurship classes, and participated in site visits to numerous Bay Area companies. He will present his research findings during a public seminar at the end of May before concluding the program and returning to his position at Mitsubishi Electric's corporate headquarters in Tokyo.

A graduate of Waseda University with BS and MS degrees in industrial and management systems engineering, Kondo majored in combinatorial optimization—the analysis of numerous finite possibilities in order to arrive at the most efficient solution to a problem. He has applied his expertise for the past seventeen years at Mitsubishi Electric, a corporation with five major divisions and approximately one hundred thousand employees worldwide, including the United States. Mitsubishi Electric manufactures products ranging from common home appliances like refrigerators to sophisticated electronic devices such as semiconductor lasers. Its Diamond Vision display system graces San Francisco's AT&T Park and Oakland's Oracle Arena.

Prior to taking up his current position at Mitsubishi Electric, Kondo designed systems related to road operations and management, including traffic information and radio communications systems, and he also took part in a joint government and private sector study of a toll collection system similar to FasTrak. The study group made important technology- and policy-related recommendations to the Japanese government when it was preparing to implement the system throughout the country. Kondo is now engaged in finding ways to develop the IT-side of Mitsubishi Electric's business, testing new systems in-house before putting them on the market.

Kondo is excited about the possible manufacturing applications of AR technology, which to date has mostly been utilized in entertainment. A commonly seen use of the technology is with the throw-distance markings that are digitally overlaid on a field during a television football broadcast. When he returns to Mitsubishi Electric this summer, Kondo plans to advocate the use of AR technology and to explore new ways of implementing it with their manufacturing. His Shorenstein APARC research project advisor has been Henry S. Rowen, co-director of the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship and a specialist on high-tech industries in the United States and Asia. "He is brilliant," emphasizes Kondo.

During his year with the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program, Kondo has audited several entrepreneurship classes in the Department of Management Science and Engineering, noting the profusion of such classes at Stanford University. It has led him to develop an interest in the Bay Area venture capital firms that the Fellows have visited, his first encounters with businesses of this kind. The group has also toured a number of high-tech companies, of which Cisco Systems holds a special attraction for Kondo because of his interest in AR technology.

Of all of his experiences this past year, Kondo has perhaps been most struck by the overwhelming U.S. response to Japan's recovery efforts after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami. "It has been very confusing," he says, "but the American people have shown support for us." Japan too demonstrated its friendship when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005—an unprecedented disaster in U.S. history. The Japanese government and private citizens sent significant funds and supplies for relief efforts.

When Kondo returns to Japan in June, he will take with him not only the academic and business expertise that he has gained while participating in the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program but also the memory of the friendship that he has experienced. Building strong ties between the United States and Asia is a core component of Shorenstein APARC's mission. Kondo will join the Corporate Affiliates Visiting Fellows Program's ever-growing alumni network, connecting him to colleagues throughout Asia and to Shorenstein APARC and Stanford scholars for many years to come.