Stanford University

International Development

FSI researchers consider international development from a variety of angles. They analyze ideas such as how public action and good governance are cornerstones of economic prosperity in Mexico and how investments in high school education will improve China’s economy.

They are looking at novel technological interventions to improve rural livelihoods, like the development implications of solar power-generated crop growing in Northern Benin.

FSI academics also assess which political processes yield better access to public services, particularly in developing countries. With a focus on health care, researchers have studied the political incentives to embrace UNICEF’s child survival efforts and how a well-run anti-alcohol policy in Russia affected mortality rates.

FSI’s work on international development also includes training the next generation of leaders through pre- and post-doctoral fellowships as well as the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program.

China's Fifth Generation takes the Helm: New Leaders, New Challenges, and Structural Constraints

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The team of leaders who will take the helm in China beginning next year—the so-called “Fifth Generation”—will be better educated, have greater exposure to the outside world, and extensive experience implementing policies that have facilitated sustained economic growth and growing international influence. They may view issues somewhat differently than their predecessors but have risen to the top by going along to get ahead and are unlikely to propose radical policy initiatives.  But they must confront a growing number of challenges fueled by China’s past success and recent behavior and will be constrained by structural features of the Chinese system and integration into the global market.

Thomas Fingar is the Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). In 2009, he was the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at FSI. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council.

This event is part of the China's Looming Challenges series. 

Philippines Conference Room

Thomas Fingar

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

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Mexico’s Fight for Security

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Since 2006, more than 40,000 people in Mexico have died in drug-related homicides, and recent figures indicate that the pace and severity of drug-related violence is increasing. Experiencing a significant breakdown of its rule of law, the population of Ciudad Juárez alone suffered more than 3,000 homicides in 2010, making it the most dangerous city anywhere in the world. Dr. Poiré Romero will address the characteristics of the security situation in Mexico, the historical events and situations that made it what it is now, and the current strategy that the Federal Government is implementing to achieve security. Dr. Poiré’s talk will be completely off-the-record, and is by invitation only.

Speaker biography:

On September 9, 2011, Dr. Alejandro Poiré Romero was appointed as Director of Mexico´s National Security Agency by President Felipe Calderón. Prior to that, Dr. Poiré served as Secretary of the National Security Council and Cabinet, and has held a variety of cabinet-level positions since 2007. He also worked as an adviser to the National Institute of Statistics on the creation of the first National Survey on Political Culture and Citizenship Practices. He has published several academic pieces analyzing public opinion, campaign dynamics and voting behavior in Mexico, in addition to two books on Mexico’s democratic process, Towards Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion and Mexico's Pivotal Democratic Election.

Dr. Poiré holds a PhD in Political Science from Harvard University, and a Bachelor’s degree in the same field from Mexico’s Autonomous Technological Institute (ITAM), where he has been a professor and the Political Science Department Chair. He has also been a visiting researcher and lecturer at several institutions in the USA, including MIT, and Latin America. 

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Alejandro Poiré Romero Director of Mexico’s National Security Agency Speaker
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Crisis, Uncertainty, and Democracy: Black Swans, Fat Tails, and the Futures of Political Science

How certain is the future?

Southeast Asia Forum director Donald K. Emmerson addressed the intersection between crisis, uncertainty, and democracy in a keynote presentation at the 2011 annual conference of the Australian Political Studies Association.

Emmerson examined such global events as the large-scale financial crises of recent decades, the 9/11 attacks, and the Arab Spring. He argued that the current century is marked by increasing complexity and uncertainty, which interact to challenge global, regional, and national security in novel ways. It is urgent, he said, to adapt and craft political institutions that can respond quickly and aptly to these new demands.

 

Canberra, Australia

Donald K. Emmerson

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Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Affiliated Faculty, CDDRL
Affiliated Scholar, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies
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At Stanford, in addition to his work for the Southeast Asia Program and his affiliations with CDDRL and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Donald Emmerson has taught courses on Southeast Asia in East Asian Studies, International Policy Studies, and Political Science. He is active as an analyst of current policy issues involving Asia. In 2010 the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars awarded him a two-year Research Associateship given to “top scholars from across the United States” who “have successfully bridged the gap between the academy and policy.”

Emmerson’s research interests include Southeast Asia-China-US relations, the South China Sea, and the future of ASEAN. His publications, authored or edited, span more than a dozen books and monographs and some 200 articles, chapters, and shorter pieces.  Recent writings include The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century (ed., 2020); “‘No Sole Control’ in the South China Sea,” in Asia Policy  (2019); ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done? (ed., 2018); “Singapore and Goliath?,” in Journal of Democracy (2018); “Mapping ASEAN’s Futures,” in Contemporary Southeast Asia (2017); and “ASEAN Between China and America: Is It Time to Try Horsing the Cow?,” in Trans-Regional and –National Studies of Southeast Asia (2017).

Earlier work includes “Sunnylands or Rancho Mirage? ASEAN and the South China Sea,” in YaleGlobal (2016); “The Spectrum of Comparisons: A Discussion,” in Pacific Affairs (2014); “Facts, Minds, and Formats: Scholarship and Political Change in Indonesia” in Indonesian Studies: The State of the Field (2013); “Is Indonesia Rising? It Depends” in Indonesia Rising (2012); “Southeast Asia: Minding the Gap between Democracy and Governance,” in Journal of Democracy (April 2012); “The Problem and Promise of Focality in World Affairs,” in Strategic Review (August 2011); An American Place at an Asian Table? Regionalism and Its Reasons (2011); Asian Regionalism and US Policy: The Case for Creative Adaptation (2010); “The Useful Diversity of ‘Islamism’” and “Islamism: Pros, Cons, and Contexts” in Islamism: Conflicting Perspectives on Political Islam (2009); “Crisis and Consensus: America and ASEAN in a New Global Context” in Refreshing U.S.-Thai Relations (2009); and Hard Choices: Security, Democracy, and Regionalism in Southeast Asia (edited, 2008).

Prior to moving to Stanford in 1999, Emmerson was a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he won a campus-wide teaching award. That same year he helped monitor voting in Indonesia and East Timor for the National Democratic Institute and the Carter Center. In the course of his career, he has taken part in numerous policy-related working groups focused on topics related to Southeast Asia; has testified before House and Senate committees on Asian affairs; and been a regular at gatherings such as the Asia Pacific Roundtable (Kuala Lumpur), the Bali Democracy Forum (Nusa Dua), and the Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore). Places where he has held various visiting fellowships, including the Institute for Advanced Study and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. 



Emmerson has a Ph.D. in political science from Yale and a BA in international affairs from Princeton. He is fluent in Indonesian, was fluent in French, and has lectured and written in both languages. He has lesser competence in Dutch, Javanese, and Russian. A former slam poet in English, he enjoys the spoken word and reads occasionally under a nom de plume with the Not Yet Dead Poets Society in Redwood City, CA. He and his wife Carolyn met in high school in Lebanon. They have two children. He was born in Tokyo, the son of U.S. Foreign Service Officer John K. Emmerson, who wrote the Japanese Thread among other books.

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Panel discusses why U.S. VC money flies over Japan

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On October 20, the SPRIE-Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE) hosted a panel discussion featuring venture capitalists and a group of U.S.-Japan experts. The discussion with the title, "U.S.-Japan VC Cooperation and the Fly Over Phenomenon" was moderated by SPRIE Researcher, Robert Eberhart and held at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

Panelists included Michael Alfant, CEO of Fusion Systems, Martin Kenney, Professor at UC Davis, Allen Miner, Founder of SunBridge, Scott Ellman, CEO of USAsia Venture Partners, Quaeed Motiwala, Managing Director at DFJ JAIC, and William F. Miller, Co-director of SPRIE. They discussed the tendency of U.S. based venture capital firms to fly from Silicon Valley, over Japan, and invest into China.

The panel noted that the reasons usually given by U.S. venture capitalists for the flyover phenomemon is that Japan has obscure accounting, uncertain relief in courts, and too far away to monitor. But since those risks are much larger in China other explanations were needed.  The lack of innovation - i.e. copycat firms -  that flourish in new niches in China are more attractive for VCs than the highly competitive and risky new technologies in Japan. Panelist also suggested that investing cycles are dominated by "fashion" with Japan being out of fashion, and noted the late stage investing pattern in China versus earlier stage investing in Japan and the U.S.  Finally, the panel posed an interesting question for STAJE research that perhaps under certain circumstances protected markets that are now in China might reduce the risks and increase returns for venture capitalists.

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Cyberwar - Overhyped or Over Here?

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Stewart Baker, a former policymaker at both the National Security Agency and the Department of Homeland Security will talk about the latest concern in official Washington.  Putting cyberweapons in historical context, he'll describe how the United States and other countries are responding to the strategic challenge of cyberwar - and what it might mean for the future of the Internet.

Speaker Biography:

Stewart Baker is a partner in the law firm of Steptoe & Johnson.  He is the author of Skating on Stilts – Why We Aren’t Stopping Tomorrow’s Terrorism, a book on the security challenges posed by technology and the use of data in preventing terrorism.

From 2005 to 2009, he was the first Assistant Secretary for Policy at the Department of Homeland Security. Stemming from his role at DHS, Mr. Baker has a deep background in the international implications of US security policy- such as disputes over US collection of data from international businesses.

Mr. Baker’s practice covers national security, electronic surveillance, law enforcement, export control, encryption, and related technology issues.

From 1992 to 1994, Mr. Baker was General Counsel of the National Security Agency, where he led NSA and interagency efforts to reform commercial encryption and computer security law and policy. 


Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Stewart Baker Partner, Steptoe & Johnson, LLP; Former Assistant Secretary for Policy, Department of Homeland Security Speaker
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Jorge Olarte

Encina Hall

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Jorge Olarte is a senior at Stanford University majoring in Political
Science and pursuing the Research Honors Track Program. At Stanford he
has been involved with the Freeman Spogli Institute for International
Studies through the Rural Education Action Program (REAP) and CDDRL’s
Program on Poverty and Governance. His areas of interest include
criminal violence, authoritarian regimes, democratization, governance,
and state building. He is currently studying the patterns of violence
in Mexico throughout the democratization period and the effects of
government interventions on drug trafficking networks. Other research
projects have involved fieldwork in China and Guatemala. During 2010
he studied at Peking University through Stanford’s Bing Overseas
Studies Program.

In 2012, he co-founded the Forum for Cooperation Understanding and
Solidarity (FoCUS), a student-run organization headquartered at
Stanford University and at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de
México (ITAM). Through this partnership, students from both
universities are attempting to develop and strengthen a network of
young leaders committed to improving the academic, cultural and
diplomatic exchange between the United States and Mexico.

Gregory and Nunez discuss the use of video cameras in human rights work

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Sam Gregory, program director at WITNESS
 and Bryan Nunez, technology manager at Witness, delivered the Oct. 27 Liberation Technology seminar entitled, “Cameras Everywhere: Meeting the Challenges at the intersection of Human Rights, Video and Technology.” The speakers discussed WITNESS’ agenda to harness the power of video cameras in bringing out human rights issues into public attention. The speakers shared their story of working with human rights activists on using videos to transform personal stories of abuse into powerful tools for justice, promoting public engagement and policy change.

Gregory and Nunez discussed the strategic use of video in human rights work and their engagement with activists around the world on this subject. They suggested that there are various protagonists that play an important role as witnesses: from those who are unexpected to those who are more purposeful. In order to understand the impact of videos, it is important to go beyond those who make the videos and also consider the role of aggregators and curators, as they provide a valuable role in the process of ‘witnessing’.

They discussed different ways of capturing information through videos while taking into account security and ethical issues, and the challenges in making videos more usable especially when their production is decentralized. Other challenges they identified include: too much that is competing for our attention; the problem of privacy and of verification. Notwithstanding the challenges, they have had success over the years, and they argued, “We’ve witnessed brave people of all ages coming together to effect a profound change in their country.”

Some specific recommendations were made, including: supporting curation of human rights videos, facilitating user education and understanding of human rights issues. They suggested that it is important to have autonomous sites and options for people for hosting content. In particular, it is essential to look at resources that are not controlled by governments.

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Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program recruitment opens

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The Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program is recruiting rising leaders from around the world to join the 2012 program scheduled for July 22-August 10 at Stanford University. Entering its eighth year, the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program is run by the faculty and staff at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. The deadline to apply is December 12, 2011.

The program is funded by generous support from Bill and Phyllis Draper and Ingrid von Mangoldt Hills.

A life changing experience I will never forget. I leave a much more informed and networked civil society leader. -Titus Gwemende, Zimbabwe (Class of 2011)

Each year, the program brings together a group of 25 to 30 mid-career practitioners in law, politics, government, private enterprise, civil society, and development from emerging and aspiring democracies. The three-week program provides a unique forum for emerging leaders to connect, exchange experiences, and receive academic training to enrich their knowledge and advance their work. Academic sessions are taught by an interdisciplinary team of leading Stanford faculty who are joined by an all-star roster of outside guest speakers.

Fellows emerge from the training program better equipped with new techniques and approaches to build democracy and economic development in their home countries. The 2012 class of Draper Hills Summer Fellows will join a network of 186 alumni from 57 developing democracies worldwide.

Previous Summer Fellows have served as presidential advisors, senators, lawyers, journalists, civic activists, entrepreneurs, academic researchers, and development practitioners, among others. Strong candidates should have substantial practical experience and play important emerging roles in their country's economic and social development. The program seeks applicants from countries where democracy and development are not firmly established, in the regions of Africa, Asia, Eurasia, Latin America, and the Arab world. Successful applicants will have academic credentials necessary to participate and contribute to advanced academic sessions and a working knowledge of English.

The program is highly selective, receiving several hundred applications each year. To learn more about the program and to apply, please visit: http://draperhills.stanford.edu/. Applicants are encouraged to apply as early as possible, applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis.

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