Energy

This image is having trouble loading!FSI researchers examine the role of energy sources from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) investigates how the production and consumption of energy affect human welfare and environmental quality. Professors assess natural gas and coal markets, as well as the smart energy grid and how to create effective climate policy in an imperfect world. This includes how state-owned enterprises – like oil companies – affect energy markets around the world. Regulatory barriers are examined for understanding obstacles to lowering carbon in energy services. Realistic cap and trade policies in California are studied, as is the creation of a giant coal market in China.

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By deemphasizing the role of nuclear weapons in US security policy, the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) could lead India to slow or halt the growth of its nuclear weapons capabilities and to adopt a less assertive nuclear doctrine; however, the NPR is unlikely to have this effect on India's nuclear program. This is the case for two reasons. First, Indian leaders do not seek to emulate US nuclear behavior; they formulate policy based primarily on their assessment of the security threats facing India. Second, Indians do not think that the NPR augurs major changes in US nuclear policy. Thus, it will not alter the international strategic environment sufficiently to enable India to relax its nuclear posture. In fact, Indian strategists believe that the new US policy fails even to match India's current degree of nuclear restraint. Therefore, according to Indian experts, the NPR will have little impact on India.

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The Nonproliferation Review
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David Lobell
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A team of researchers from Stanford University, the Carnegie Institution for Science, and Arizona State University has found that converting large swaths of land to bioenergy crops could have a wide range of effects on regional climate.

In an effort to help wean itself off fossil fuels, the U.S. has mandated significant increases in renewable fuels, with more than one-third of the domestic corn harvest to be used for conversion to ethanol by 2018. But concerns about effects of corn ethanol on food prices and deforestation had led to research suggesting that ethanol be derived from perennial crops, like the giant grasses Miscanthus and switchgrass. Nearly all of this research, though, has focused on the effects of ethanol on carbon dioxide emissions, which drive global warming.

"Almost all of the work performed to date has focused on the carbon effects," said Matei Georgescu, a climate modeler working in ASU's Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics. "We've tried to expand our perspective to look at a more complete picture.  What we've shown is that it's not all about greenhouse gases, and that modifying the landscape can be just as important."

Georgescu and his colleagues report their findings in the current issue (Feb. 28, 2011) of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (see Direct Climate Effects of Perennial Bioenergy Crops in the United States). Co-authors are David Lobell of Stanford University's Program on Food Security and the Environment and Christopher B. Field of the Carnegie Institution for Science, also located in Stanford, California.

In their study, the researchers simulated an entire growing season with a state-of-the-art regional climate model. They ran two sets of experiments - one with an annual crop representation over the central U.S. and one with an extended growing season to represent perennial grasses. In the model, the perennial plants pumped more water from the soil to the atmosphere, leading to large local cooling. 

"We've shown that planting perennial bioenergy crops can lower surface temperatures by about a degree Celsius locally, averaged over the entire growing season. That's a pretty big effect, enough to dominate any effects of carbon savings on the regional climate." said Lobell.

The primary physical process at work is based on greater evapotranspiration (combination of evaporated water from the soil surface and plant canopy and transpired water from within the soil) for perennial crops compared to annual crops. 

"More study is needed to understand the long-term implication for regional water balance." Georgescu said. "This study focused on temperature, but the more general point is that simply assessing the impacts on carbon and greenhouse gases overlooks important features that we cannot ignore if we want a bioenergy path that is sustainable over the long haul."

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Biomass-derived energy offers the potential to increase energy security while mitigating anthropogenic climate change, but a successful path toward increased production requires a thorough accounting of costs and benefits. Until recently, the efficacy of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on biogeochemical consequences. Here we show that the biogeophysical effects that result from hypothetical conversion of annual to perennial bioenergy crops across the central United States impart a significant local to regional cooling with considerable implications for the reservoir of stored soil water. This cooling effect is related mainly to local increases in transpiration, but also to higher albedo. The reduction in radiative forcing from albedo alone is equivalent to a carbon emissions reduction of 78 t C ha-1 , which is six times larger than the annual biogeochemical effects that arise from offsetting fossil fuel use. Thus, in the near-term, the biogeophysical effects are an important aspect of climate impacts of biofuels, even at the global scale. Locally, the simulated cooling is sufficiently large to partially offset projected warming due to increasing greenhouse gases over the next few decades. These results demonstrate that a thorough evaluation of costs and benefits of bioenergy-related land-use change must include potential impacts on the surface energy and water balance to comprehensively address important concerns for local, regional, and global climate change.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Matei Georgescu
David Lobell
Christopher B. Field
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On February 15, Professor John Tasioulas of the Faculty of Law at University College London spoke during the sixth session of the Sanela Diana Jenkins Speaker Series hosted by the Program on Human Rights at Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. A former Reader of Moral and Legal Philosophy at Oxford, Tasioulas discussed the moral philosophy that underpins human rights.

In his presentation entitled "The Justification of Human Rights," Tasioulas argued that the contemporary notion of human rights cannot be seen solely as a political movement, but instead must be considered from a moral perspective. Tasioulas defined human rights as "natural rights," possessed by all humans by virtue of their humanity and discovered through ordinary moral reasoning.  

Because the philosophical core of human rights is derived from the very fact that one is human, he argued that there is universality to this doctrine. Tasioulas contested that moral philosophy behind human rights provides the language and understanding with which society can distinguish between the so-called "good guys" and human rights violators or "bad guys."

Tasioulas argued that this moral basis of human rights provides a better and clearer understanding of what are and what are not human rights. He highlighted the confusion between human rights and human interests often seen in policy-making and academic literature. For example, he underscored that there is a difference between the human right to water and the human interest, or desire, for freedom of speech. While allowing that this served as an exaggerated example, he highlighted the importance of differentiating between human interests - that which makes life better - and human rights - that which is guaranteed to all humans.

At their core, he claimed, human rights are the result of the moral understanding of right and wrong - an understanding that can improve the lives of many around the world.   

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Marine aquaculture is expanding rapidly without reliable quantification of effluents. The present study focuses on understanding the transport of dissolved wastes from aquaculture pens in near-coastal environments using the hydrodynamics code SUNTANS (Stanford Unstructured Nonhydrostatic Terrain-following Adaptive Navier-Stokes Simulator), which employs unstructured grids to compute flows in the coastal ocean at very high resolution. Simulations of a pollutant concentration field (in time and space) as a function of the local environment (bathymetry), flow conditions (tides and wind-induced currents), and the location of the pens were performed to study their effects on the evolution of the waste plume. The presence of the fish farm pens cause partial blockage of the flow, leading to the deceleration of the approaching flow and formation of downstream wakes. Results of both the near-field area (area within 10 to 20 pen diameters of the fish-pen site) as well as far-field behavior of the pollutant field are presented. These detailed results highlight for the first time the importance of the wake vortex dynamics on the evolution of the near-field plume as well as the rotation of the earth on the far-field plume. The results provide an understanding of the impact of aquaculture fish-pens on coastal water quality.

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Environmental Fluid Mechanics
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Rosamond L. Naylor
Jeffrey R. Koseff
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Scott Rozelle
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OMAHA (DTN) -- China is the world's No. 1 producer and consumer of pork and poultry, producing more than five times the pork raised in the U.S. and 80 percent as much poultry. With its economic growth and increasing middle class, it is inevitable that meat consumption will rise.

The question is: Will China be able to continue to boost production sufficiently to meet that demand? The answer has implications for U.S. grain and meat producers.

"Rapidly rising incomes will have wrenching effects on the demand for food," said Scott Rozelle, agricultural economist at Stanford University. "As increasingly well-off consumers get fewer of their calories from rice and wheat, they will demand more from high-value products such as meat, fish, dairy and fruit. Urbanization has similar impacts, dampening the demand for rice and wheat and raising the demand for meat, fish, dairy and fruit. Trying to meet these rising -- and shifting -- demands will pose a large challenge."

Most importantly, given the great constraints China faces in arable land and water, the government has chosen to focus its agriculture in two ways: staple food crops such as rice and oilseeds and value-added products, said Francis Tuan, with USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service. It is aiming for a high percentage of self-sufficiency in staples to ensure its population doesn't go hungry. On the other hand, it wants to garner as much economic growth from agricultural production as possible.

"China is exporting more labor-intensive fruits and vegetables and higher-value commodities, while it is importing more land-intensive agricultural commodities, such as soybeans, cotton, sugar and dairy," Rozelle added. "These shifts are obviously more in line with China's comparative advantage."

One example of that trend is China's purchases of raw soybeans to be crushed in China for oil. Another is some farmers leaving crop production to focus on livestock.

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This EWG talk will highlight PESD's first analysis using our new coal model by demonstrating how it can be used to analyze the effects of China's import behavior on world thermal coal consumption. We will explore China's capability as a consumer to exercise market power in the domestic Chinese markets, and to what extent this behavior affects the price, consumption, and production of steam coal globally. Two scenarios will be presented: 1) we assume Chinese consumers with import capability behave competitively and 2) we assume they exercise market power.

The use of coal as a fuel has increased tremendously over the past decade, with most of the growth coming from rapidly expanding economies like those in China and India. As coal continues to be the fuel of choice for electricity generation around the world, PESD is excited to be developing a model to further understand the global steam coal market.  In the future, we anticipate the model will help answer questions regarding climate and trade policies, market structure, and technology improvements.

Michael Joined PESD in July of 2010 as a research assistant after graduating from Stanford University with a BA in Economics.

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Michael joined PESD in July of 2010 after graduating from Stanford with a BA in Economics. He works with the Program Director, Frank A. Wolak, as a Quantitative Research Assistant. At Stanford he discovered his interest in Economics as a tool for encouraging more responsible use of energy and resources. He looks forward to working at PESD where he will continue to explore these interests.

His research interests include studying the effects of price-based climate policies, and to what extent they accelerate the production and adoption of low-carbon energy technologies.

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