Stanford University

What Do the Polls Say? Predicting the Winner of the 2008 Taiwan Presidential Election

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This is a CDDRL's Special Seminar within our Democracy in Taiwan Program. In this seminar, Dr. Chia-hung Tsai will present up-to-date survey data regarding Taiwan’s 2008 presidential election. He will also discuss the dynamics of the presidential campaign and their implications for prospective voters.  

Chia-hung Tsai is Associate Research Fellow of the Election Study Center at the National Chengchi University. He received his PhD in political science from the Ohio State University, 2003, and he worked at the Election Study Center since then. Chia-hung Tsai’s research interest lies in voting behavior and methodology, especially Bayesian statistics. Winner of the “NCCU Outstanding Research Award,” he has published articles in various professional journals including Party Politics, International Political Science Review, Journal of Election Studies (Chinese), and so forth. Currently, he is conducting a multi-year project on voting behavior, public opinion, and public policies in Taiwan. The main focus of this project is to examine the quality of Taiwan’s young democracy. Specifically, this project investigates the extent to which public policies respond to public opinion.  

Philippines Conference Room

Chia-hung Tsai Associate Research Fellow Speaker Election Study Center, National Chengchi University
Seminars

Lunch with Shorenstein Fellows - Dr. John Ciorciari and Dr. Gene Park

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Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

John Ciorciari

Hoover Institution
Stanford, CA 94305

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Affiliate - Southeast Asia Forum
CiociariHeadshot.jpg JD, PhD

John D. Ciorciari was a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-2008.  Dr. Ciorciari will remain at Stanford for the academic year 2008-09 as a National Fellow of the Hoover Institution. His current research centers on the alignment policies of small states and middle powers in the Asia-Pacific region. He focuses particularly on the phenomenon of "hedging," whereby secondary states pursue a balance of security and autonomy vis-a-vis the great powers.

Dr. Ciorciari also has interests in international human rights law and international finance. Before coming to Stanford, he served as Deputy Director of the Office of South and Southeast Asia at the U.S. Treasury Department. He has published articles on the reform of the Bretton Woods institutions and is currently undertaking a project on financial cooperation in East Asia.

In addition, he serves as a Senior Legal Advisor to the Documentation Center of Cambodia, which assists the Khmer Rouge tribunal and conducts research into the history of Democratic Kampuchea. He has published a range of scholarly works on international criminal law and the Khmer Rouge accountability process.

Dr. Ciorciari received an AB and JD from Harvard, where he was editor-in-chief of the Harvard International Law Journal. He received his MPhil and DPhil from Oxford, where he was a Fulbright Scholar and Wai Seng Senior Research Scholar.

John Ciorciari Speaker

Gene Park

Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-9747 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein Fellow
ParkWeb1.jpg PhD

Gene Park is a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow at Shorenstein APARC for 2007-2008. Park is currently working on a book that analyzes how a large government system for mobilizing and allocating financial capital, the Fiscal Investment Loan Program, has influenced budget politics and the internal coalitional dynamics within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

His work has appeared in the journals Governance and Asian Survey, and he co-authored an article for the edited volume, The State after Statism (Harvard University Press). Dr. Park received a Fulbright scholarship to study in Japan. He has been a visiting scholar at the Japanese Ministry of Finance's Policy Research Institute and Sophia University in Tokyo.

Dr. Park completed his Ph.D. in 2007 in political science at University of California, Berkeley. He also holds a Masters in City and Regional Planning from Berkeley, and a B.A. in Philosophy from Swarthmore College.

Gene Park Speaker
Seminars

Hidden Alliance: While the West Hears Only a Cacophony of Mutual Recriminations, Beijing and Tokyo are Quietly Making Sweet Music Together

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Conventional wisdom says that relations between China and Japan are fated always to be exceptionally wary, if not openly hostile -- and Japanese leaders' visits to the notorious Yasukuni have done nothing to undermine this view. Nor have Sino-Japanese standoffs over the disputed Senkaku islands. Meanwhile Beijing's opposition has been widely credited as the reason why Japan has failed in its reported aspiration to join the United Nations Security Council. Author and long-time Tokyo-based East Asia watcher Eamonn Fingleton argues that these issues have been grossly misunderstood in the West and that on closer inspection they say little if anything about the true state of Sino-Japanese relations. He insists that on a host of substantive issues overlooked by the press, Japan and China have been cooperating closely for decades. So much so that Japanese help has been one of the most powerful factors in China's rise.

A former editor for Forbes and the Financial Times, Eamonn Fingleton has been monitoring East Asian economics since 1985. He met China's supreme leader Deng Xiaoping in 1986 as a member of a New York Stock Exchange delegation. The following year he predicted the Tokyo banking crash and went on in Blindside, a controversial 1995 analysis that was praised by J.K. Galbraith and Bill Clinton, to show that a heedless America was fast losing its formerly vaunted leadership in advanced manufacturing to Japan.

His 1999 book In Praise of Hard Industries: Why Manufacturing, Not the Information Economy, Is the Key to Future Prosperity anticipated the American Internet stock crash of 2000. In his 2008 book In the Jaws of the Dragon: America's Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony, he issues a strong challenge to the conventional view among Washington policymakers and think tank analysts that China is converging to Western economic and political forms and attitudes. His books have been read into the U.S. Senate record and named among the ten best business books of the year by Business Week and Amazon.com.

He was born in Ireland in 1948 and is a graduate of Trinity College Dublin. He was the recipient of the American Values Award from the United States Business and Industry Council in 2001.

Copies of Fingleton's newest book In the Jaws of the Dragon: America's Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony - due March 4 by St. Martin's Press - will be for sale during the event.

Philippines Conference Room

Eamonn Fingleton author Speaker
Seminars

Islamist Terrorism and Antisemitism: The Mission against Modernity

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Matthias Küntzel, born in 1955, is a political scientist in Hamburg, Germany. He has served as senior advisor for the German Green Party caucus in the the Bundestag and is currently a Research Associate at the Vidal Sassoon International Center for the Study of Antisemitism at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem as well as a member of the Board of Directors of Scholars for Peace in the Middle East. Küntzel's essays have been published in The New Republic, Policy Review, The Weekly Standard, the Wall Street Journal and Telos. His most recent book, Jihad and Jew-Hatred: Islamism, Nazism and the Roots of 9/11, published by Telos Press,won the 2007 London Book Festival Grand Prize.

In this lecture, Dr. Kuentzel examines an understudied legacy of the Nazi past, the transfer of the ideology of European antisemitism into the Arab world and its role in the formation of contemporary terrorism.

 

Event Synopsis:

Dr. Kuentzel begins his talk by recounting widespread celebrations within some Palestinian communities after the March 2008 killing of 15 young Jewish students by a Palestinian. He shows a video of a sermon from a mosque in Gaza in 2005 which praises the murders. Kuentzel rejects common arguments that the celebrations represent a desire for revenge on Israel for Palestinian deaths since 1948. Instead, he asserts that the incident shows that Islamists are obsessed by genocidal anti-Semitism, which has been influenced by and can be compared to European and Nazi anti-Semitism, both of which he sees as attempts to answer the success of liberal capitalism.

His talk follows the outline of his recent book, and covers four topics:

  1. The birth of Islamism

When the Muslim Brotherhood was established as a mass movement in 1928, it aimed to replace a parliamentary system with a caliphate, emphasizing a return to the roots of Islam. By 1948, the group had 1 million members in Egypt alone. A form of populist Islam, it invoked jihad as a means of establishing Sharia law, and focused its efforts almost entirely against Jews, drawing on both early Islamic thought and Nazism.

  1. Jew hatred as related to the hatred of modernity

Kuentzel sees Islamist anti-Semitism as closely tied to a fear of modernity. In this sense Jews are seen as representing the most threatening aspects of modernity including gender equality, freedom of thought, and individualism.

  1. Islamism and national socialism

Kuentzel draws ties between Islamism and the ideology of national socialism embodied by the Nazi party. He describes a Nazi radio station which broadcast Arabic language programming between 1945 and 1949. The programs emphasized religious identity of Muslims, utilized popular broadcasters, and were professionally produced with strong transmission signals, making them popular and widely accessible.

  1. Present day Islamism and anti-Semitism

Dr. Kuentzel asserts that Nazi ideology persisted in parts of Europe after 1945, and that when the Cold War emerged as the prominent political and economic feature of the era, it obscured/overshadowed the continuation of national socialist thought.

Finally, Dr. Kuentzel offers his views of both Islamism and anti-Semitism today, and concludes that the incidents like the one described at the beginning of his talk represent a revival of Nazi ideology "in new garb." He credits Muslims such as scholar Bassam Tibi who urge tolerance and speak out against anti-Semitism.

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CISAC Conference Room

Matthias Kuentzel Author and political scientist Speaker
Seminars

Romania and Bulgaria: One Year of EU membership

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Timo Summa is director of the Enterprise Directorate-General at the European Commission, after having served as director of the European Commission’s Enlargement Directorate-General in various areas of specialization since 1995. Previously, he served the president and CEO of Tampella Corporation (1991-95) and Interpolator Oy (1987-91); as chief economist and director of the Federation of Finnish Metal, Engineering & Electrotechnical Industries (1978-80; 1980-87); as researcher and Head of Industrial Economics Division of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (1971-73; 1974-78); and as a researcher with the Finnish National Fund for Research and Development (1971).

Mr. Summa holds a M.Sc. (1972) and Ph.D. (1986) in Economics from the Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration and completed doctoral studies at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences (1976-77).

CISAC Conference Room

Timo Summa Director, Enterprise Directorate-General, European Commission Speaker
Seminars

Why only Nintendo?--Challenges Facing the Japanese Software Industry

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Every day you drive your Toyota Prius to work; when you return home you watch a Sony television, and your DVD player has a laser semiconductor produced by Mitsubishi. On weekends you take pictures with a Canon digital camera.

Everyone knows that the market is filled with Japanese high-tech products. You might, however, not realize that with the exception of the one running on your game console, you probably have never seen a Japanese software product.

In this seminar, Dr. Fushimi will present his analysis on why the Japanese have been so weak in the global software market. He will first discuss the intrinsic differences between software and hardware, and use these differences as a framework to identify the critical mistakes Japanese software companies have made.

Shinya Fushimi has spent twenty years in the Japanese IT industry, serving various R&D and management positions. Most recently, he was Head of Data Centric Solution Business Unit of Mitsubishi Electric. He received the BS, MS, and PhD in computer science from The University of Tokyo and has received a number of academic awards like the Moto-oka Memorial Prize and Best Paper Award for a Young Researcher. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he was with the Sloan Master's Program of Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and received the Master of Science in Management.

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Philippines Conference Room

Shinya Fushimi Speaker
Seminars

A New Look at 9/11 Intelligence Failures: American Institutions and Embodied Knowledge

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Lynn Eden (speaker) is associate director for research/senior research scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. Eden received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Michigan and taught in the Department of History at Carnegie Mellon University. Eden's first book, Crisis in Watertown was a finalist for a National Book Award. Her second, Witness in Philadelphia, with Florence Mars, was a retrospective look at the murders of civil rights workers Schwerner, Chaney, and Goodman in the summer of 1964; it was a Book of the Month Club Alternate Selection. In the area of international security, Eden focuses on U.S. foreign and military policy, organizational issues, and the social construction of science and technology in the nuclear realm. She co-edited, with Steven E. Miller, Nuclear Arguments. Eden was an editor of The Oxford Companion to American Military History, a social and cultural approach war and peace in U.S. history; the volume was chosen as a Main Selection of the History Book Club. Eden's Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation won the American Sociological Association's 2004 Robert K. Merton award for best book in science, knowledge and technology. Currently, Eden is particularly interested in organizational learning and error, misunderstandings of the environment, and organizational explanation and rhetoric.

Brent Durbin (discussant) is completing his PhD in political science at the University of California, Berkeley, and is a predoctoral fellow at CISAC and a dissertation fellow at the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. His dissertation, "Changing the Guard: How U.S. Intelligence Adapts to New Threats and Opportunities," explains the policy processes governing how U.S. intelligence agencies respond to major changes in the international threat environment. More broadly, Durbin's research focuses on the micro- and macro-level organizational dynamics of national security bureaucracies. Durbin has previously held research fellowships at The George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, and at the University of Cambridge (U.K.). Prior to attending Berkeley, he served as press secretary for U.S. Senator Patty Murray, and worked as an advisor and senior staff member on several campaigns for U.S. Congress. He graduated magna cum laude from Oberlin College with a BA in politics and English literature. He also holds an MPP from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, and an MA in political science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Brent Durbin Speaker

Lynn Eden

Not in residence

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Affiliate
rsd15_078_0365a.jpg PhD

Lynn Eden is a Senior Research Scholar Emeritus. She was a Senior Research Scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation until January 2016, as well as was Associate Director for Research. Eden received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Michigan, held several pre- and post-doctoral fellowships, and taught in the history department at Carnegie Mellon before coming to Stanford.

In the area of international security, Eden has focused on U.S. foreign and military policy, arms control, the social construction of science and technology, and organizational issues regarding nuclear policy and homeland security. She co-edited, with Steven E. Miller, Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989). She was an editor of The Oxford Companion to American Military History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), which takes a social and cultural perspective on war and peace in U.S. history. That volume was chosen as a Main Selection of the History Book Club.

Eden's book Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004; New Delhi: Manas Publications, 2004) explores how and why the U.S. government--from World War II to the present--has greatly underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons by failing to predict damage from firestorms. It shows how well-funded and highly professional organizations, by focusing on what they do well and systematically excluding what they don't, may build a poor representation of the world--a self-reinforcing fallacy that can have serious consequences, from the sinking of the Titanic to not predicting the vulnerability of the World Trade Center to burning jet fuel. Whole World on Fire won the American Sociological Association's 2004 Robert K. Merton Award for best book in science, knowledge, and technology.

Eden has also written on life in small-town America. Her first book, Crisis in Watertown (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1972), was her college senior thesis; it was a finalist for a National Book Award in 1973. Her second book, Witness in Philadelphia, with Florence Mars (Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1977), about the murders of civil rights workers Schwerner, Chaney, and Goodman in the summer of 1964, was a Book of the Month Club Alternate Selection.

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Lynn Eden Speaker
Seminars

Organizing the World: Flexible Contracting? Or Consolidation and Predation?

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Charles Perrow is an emeritus professor of sociology at Yale University and a visiting professor at CISAC. An organizational theorist, his latest research is presented in The Next Catastrophe: Reducing Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and Terrorist Disasters (Princeton, May 2007). Among his award-winning research is Organizing America: Wealth, Power, and the Origins of American Capitalism (Princeton, 2002), winner of the Max Weber award for best book on organizations from the American Sociological Association in 2003. His recent articles include "Organizational or Executive Failures?" and "Inside the Nuclear Plant's Executive Office," both published in Contemporary Sociology. Perrow currently serves on a National Academy of Science panel on the possibilities of certifying software. He received his BA, MA, and PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, all in sociology.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Charles Perrow Speaker
Seminars

Nuclear Forensics: Tracing Nuclear Material Before and After an Explosion

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Nuclear forensics is the analysis of nuclear materials recovered from either the capture of unused nuclear materials, or from the radioactive debris following a nuclear explosion. The APS/AAAS Working Group report, which will be reviewed in this seminar, provides an appraisal of the state of the art of nuclear forensics; an assessment of its potential for preventing and identifying unattributed nuclear attacks; and identifies the policies, resources and human talent to fulfill that potential. The intended audience is the Congress, U.S. government agencies and other institutions involved in nuclear forensics as well as interested scientists.

Michael May is Professor Emeritus (Research) in the Stanford University School of Engineering and a senior fellow with the Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He is the former co-director of Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation, having served seven years in that capacity through January 2000. May is a director emeritus of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where he worked from 1952 to 1988, with some brief periods away from the Laboratory. While there, he held a variety of research and development positions, serving as director of the Laboratory from 1965 to 1971. May was a technical adviser to the Threshold Test Ban Treaty negotiating team; a member of the U.S. delegation to the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks; and at various times has been a member of the Defense Science Board, the General Advisory Committee to the AEC, the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, the RAND Corporation Board of Trustees, and the Committee on International Security and Arms Control of the National Academy of Sciences. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy, and a Fellow of the American Physical Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. May received the Distinguished Public Service and Distinguished Civilian Service Medals from the Department of Defense, and the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award from the Atomic Energy Commission, as well as other awards. His current research interests are in the area of nuclear and terrorism, energy, security and environment, and the relation of nuclear weapons and foreign policy.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Michael May Speaker
Seminars
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