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* Please note all CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

 

Register in advance for this webinar: https://stanford.zoom.us/webinar/register/8416226562432/WN_WLYcdRa6T5Cs1MMdmM0Mug

 

About the Event: Is there a place for illegal or nonconsensual evidence in security studies research, such as leaked classified documents? What is at stake, and who bears the responsibility, for determining source legitimacy? Although massive unauthorized disclosures by WikiLeaks and its kindred may excite qualitative scholars with policy revelations, and quantitative researchers with big-data suitability, they are fraught with methodological and ethical dilemmas that the discipline has yet to resolve. I argue that the hazards from this research—from national security harms, to eroding human-subjects protections, to scholarly complicity with rogue actors—generally outweigh the benefits, and that exceptions and justifications need to be articulated much more explicitly and forcefully than is customary in existing work. This paper demonstrates that the use of apparently leaked documents has proliferated over the past decade, and appeared in every leading journal, without being explicitly disclosed and defended in research design and citation practices. The paper critiques incomplete and inconsistent guidance from leading political science and international relations journals and associations; considers how other disciplines from journalism to statistics to paleontology address the origins of their sources; and elaborates a set of normative and evidentiary criteria for researchers and readers to assess documentary source legitimacy and utility. Fundamentally, it contends that the scholarly community (researchers, peer reviewers, editors, thesis advisors, professional associations, and institutions) needs to practice deeper reflection on sources’ provenance, greater humility about whether to access leaked materials and what inferences to draw from them, and more transparency in citation and research strategies.

View Written Draft Paper

 

About the Speaker: Christopher Darnton is a CISAC affiliate and an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. He previously taught at Reed College and the Catholic University of America, and holds a Ph.D. in Politics from Princeton University. He is the author of Rivalry and Alliance Politics in Cold War Latin America (Johns Hopkins, 2014) and of journal articles on US foreign policy, Latin American security, and qualitative research methods. His International Security article, “Archives and Inference: Documentary Evidence in Case Study Research and the Debate over U.S. Entry into World War II,” won the 2019 APSA International History and Politics Section Outstanding Article Award. He is writing a book on the history of US security cooperation in Latin America, based on declassified military documents.

Virtual Seminar

Christopher Darnton Associate Professor of National Security Affairs Naval Postgraduate School
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The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions and the Hoover History Lab are pleased to present a talk by Hoover Research Fellow Dian Zhong on her new publication, The Silent Withdrawal: China’s Declining Female Workforce Poses a National Challenge. Scott Rozelle, SCCEI Co-Director, will moderate the conversation. 

The Silent Withdrawal: China's Declining Female Workforce Poses a National Challenge by Dian Zhong, published by the Hoover History Lab and Hoover Institution (Book Cover).

In The Silent Withdrawal, Dian Zhong reveals a striking reversal in China’s once-celebrated gender equality, as women increasingly withdraw from the workforce despite higher education levels. Highlighting the policy missteps and the unintended consequences of pro-natalist measures, alongside the transformation of feminism from state collaboration to a force of resistance, Zhong calls for bold reforms to reconcile women’s economic empowerment with demographic challenges, steering China toward a more inclusive future.

Download the Publication



About the Author
 

Dian Zhong headshot

Dian Zhong is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a member of the Hoover History Lab, focusing on the comparative histories of developing countries during the twentieth century. In addition to her Hoover appointment, Zhong also teaches courses at Stanford University. Previously, Zhong was a lecturer in Portuguese at Beijing Foreign Studies University and a teaching and research assistant at the School of Government, Peking University.

Zhong is an experienced translator and interpreter proficient in Mandarin, Portuguese, and English, providing services for major international organizations such as the G20 and BRICS (the economic group of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). She has published extensively on topics such as the political economy of development, comparative political institutions, regime change, geopolitics, and China’s foreign policies toward Latin America. Her current research explores how rising feminism in China impacts existing challenges such as demographic shrinkage, risks of brain drain, labor market imbalances, and the transition from a low-skill, labor-intensive economy to a knowledge-based economy.

Zhong received her PhD in political science from Peking University.



Parking and Directions


Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall (616 Jane Stanford Way) on the 4th floor of the East wing. For more detailed information on venue location and parking instructions, please visit this webpage
 


Event Partners
 

Hoover History Lab and Stanford Center on China's Economy and Instituitions' logos

 


Scott Rozelle, Co-Director, SCCEI

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Dian Zhong, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
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Reception to follow panel

About the event: This January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock one second forward to 89 seconds to midnight - the closest it has been in its nearly 80-year history. The experts that set the Doomsday Clock each year look at a variety issues such as climate change, the misuse of biological science, and a variety of emerging technologies. But central to the decision on how to set the Clock is nuclear risk, where the threats continue to grow.

Arms control structures and measures, built over the course of the last half-century, are crumbling and major powers have refused to engage in sustained, substantive dialogue on reducing nuclear risk. Proliferation risks are on the rise and it seems as if the world is poised at the starting line of a full-fledged multi-state nuclear arms race. Adding to the complication, emerging and disruptive technologies threaten to upend longstanding theories on deterrence and stability.

The outlook seems bleak, but with signals from President Trump and others about the need to talk or even "denuclearize," is there hope for a new era of arms control?

Join four leading experts from the Bulletin to discuss the panoply of current nuclear risks, as well as the methods and tools for reducing them.

About the speakers: 

Jerry Brown was sworn in as governor of California on January 3, 2011, and was reelected in 2014. Brown previously was elected governor in 1974 and served two terms, during which time he established the first agricultural labor relations law in the country, started the California Conservation Corp and promoted renewable energy. In 1970, he was elected California secretary of state. Brown began his career as a clerk at the California Supreme Court. In 1998, he reentered politics and was elected mayor of Oakland, serving two terms from 1999 to 2007. Brown founded the Oakland School for the Arts and the Oakland Military Institute, which serve students from the 6th grade through the 12th grade. He was also elected California attorney general in 2006. Brown graduated from the University of California at Berkeley, where he received his bachelor’s degree in classics and earned his law degree from Yale Law School in 1964.

Alexandra Bell is the president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. A noted policy expert and former diplomat, she oversees the Bulletin's publishing programs, management of the Doomsday Clock, and a growing set of activities around nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies.  Before joining the Bulletin, Alexandra Bell served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Affairs in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability (ADS) at the U.S. Department of State. Previously, she has worked at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and the Council for a Livable World, Ploughshares Fund, and the Center for American Progress. Bell received a Master’s degree in International Affairs from the New School and a Bachelor’s degree in Peace, War and Defense from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. From 2001-2003, she was a Peace Corps Volunteer in Saint Elizabeth, Jamaica. Bell is a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Herb Lin is senior research scholar for cyber policy and security at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover Institution, both at Stanford University.  His research interests relate broadly to policy-related dimensions of cybersecurity and cyberspace, and he is particularly interested in the use of offensive operations in cyberspace as instruments of national policy and in the security dimensions of information warfare and influence operations on national security.  In addition to his positions at Stanford University, he is Chief Scientist, Emeritus for the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies, where he served from 1990 through 2014 as study director of major projects on public policy and information technology, and Adjunct Senior Research Scholar and Senior Fellow in Cybersecurity (not in residence) at the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies in the School for International and Public Affairs at Columbia University; and a member of the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. In 2016, he served on President Obama’s Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity.  Prior to his NRC service, he was a professional staff member and staff scientist for the House Armed Services Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio included defense policy and arms control issues. He received his doctorate in physics from MIT.

Rose Gottemoeller is the William J. Perry Lecturer at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Research Fellow at the Hoover Institute. Before joining Stanford Gottemoeller was the Deputy Secretary General of NATO from 2016 to 2019, where she helped to drive forward NATO’s adaptation to new security challenges in Europe and in the fight against terrorism.  Prior to NATO, she served for nearly five years as the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State, advising the Secretary of State on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. While Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification and Compliance in 2009 and 2010, she was the chief U.S. negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation. Prior to her government service, she was a senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, with joint appointments to the Nonproliferation and Russia programs. She served as the Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2006 to 2008, and is currently a nonresident fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program. At Stanford, Gottemoeller teaches and mentors students in the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy program and the CISAC Honors program; contributes to policy research and outreach activities; and convenes workshops, seminars and other events relating to her areas of expertise, including nuclear security, Russian relations, the NATO alliance, EU cooperation and non-proliferation. 

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

Rose Gottemoeller
Rose Gottemoeller

William J. Perry Conference Room

Gov. Jerry Brown
Alex Bell
Herb Lin
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jonathan klein

Join the Cyber Policy Center on February 25 from 1PM–2PM Pacific for Adolescents, Literacy, and Health: Implications for Cyber Policy with Jonathan D. Klein, the Marron and Mary Elizabeth Kendrick Professor of Pediatrics and Chief of the Division of Adolescent Medicine at Stanford University.

Stanford affiliates are invited to join us at 12:40 PM for lunch, prior to the seminar.  

About the Seminar

This seminar will review the developmental trajectory of adolescent and young adults, ways to think about literacy for both social media and health, and challenges to achieving health and wellbeing for young people in our society.  We will discuss opportunities and challenges from the perspective of health services and policy research and implications for efforts to promote positive youth development.

About the Speaker

Jonathan D. Klein is the Marron and Mary Elizabeth Kendrick Professor of Pediatrics and Chief of the Division of Adolescent Medicine at Stanford University.  He is an adolescent medicine specialist known for leadership and expertise in preventive services, youth development, tobacco control, and for translation of research into clinical and public health practice and global child health policy. Jon serves as President of the International Association for Adolescent Health, as Treasurer for the International Pediatric Association and is a member of the World Health Organization Strategic and Technical Advisory Committee for Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Nutrition.

Stanford Law School Building, Manning Faculty Lounge (Room 270)
559 Nathan Abbott Way Stanford, CA 94305

Jonathan D. Klein
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Gil Troy event

Join Hillel@Stanford and the Visiting Fellows in Israel Studies program in welcoming Professor Gil Troy to campus on Monday, March 3, at 5:30 pm.

Professor Troy has created a special program for Stanford students titled, “This is Not OK: Resisting the Academic Intifada with a Positive Liberal, American, and Zionist Vision.” After the presentation, he will engage students in an intimate conversation and Q&A session.

A light, kosher dinner will be provided. Advance RSVP via mobile device is required. Please email brandenj@stanford.edu with any questions.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Professor Gil Troy is a Senior Fellow in Zionist Thought at The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI)—a global Jewish think tank—and the author of, most recently, "The Essential Guide to October 7th and its Aftermath: Facts, Figures, History," as well as "To Resist the Academic Intifada: Letters to My Students on Defending the Zionist Dream.” He is also a Distinguished Scholar in North American History at McGill University living in Jerusalem, an award-winning American presidential historian, and a leading Zionist thinker.

Open to Stanford students only.

Koret Pavilion (Hillel@Stanford, 565 Mayfield Ave, Stanford)

RSVP via mobile device. Click "Register via Mobile" or text Gil Troy to 650.547.7882.

Gil Troy
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Israel Studies
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Roberta Gatti ARD event

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies are not catching up with the rest of the world. The region’s average per capita income has increased by just 62 percent over the last 50 years. In comparison, over the same period, the increase was fourfold in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and twofold in advanced ones. Only a few developing MENA economies have avoided diverging further from the richest countries’ living standards (what economists call the frontier), and those where conflicts erupted have accelerated in the wrong direction. In this presentation, Roberta Gatti will discuss the factors that shape MENA’s long-term growth potential, with special attention to the role of the state in the economy, the persistent effects of conflict, and the boost that closing the gender gap in the labor force can deliver in terms of growth.

This event is co-sponsored by the Program on Arab Reform and Development and the Program on Capitalism and Democracy, as well as the Middle Eastern Studies Forum.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Roberta Gatti is the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank, where she oversees the analytical agenda of the region and the publication of the semi-annual MENA Economic Updates. She is the founder of the MENA Central Banks Regional Research Network. In her prior capacity as Chief Economist for the Human Development Practice Group, Roberta co-led the conceptualization and launch of the World Bank Human Capital Index and the scale up of the Service Delivery Indicators data initiative.

Roberta joined the World Bank as a Young Professional in the Macro unit of the Development Research Group, and she has since led and overseen both operational and analytical work in her roles of Manager and of Global Lead for Labor Policies.

Roberta’s research, spanning a broad set of topics such as growth, firm productivity, the economics of corruption, gender equity, and labor markets, has been published in lead field journals such as the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Economic Growth, and the Journal of Development Economics. She is also the lead author of a number of flagship reports, including Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa; Striving for Better Jobs: The Challenge of Informality in Middle East and North Africa; The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19; and Service Delivery in Education and Health across Africa.

Roberta has taught courses at the undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Level at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities. She is a frequent lecturer on development economics, most recently at Dartmouth College, Princeton University, and Cornell University. Roberta holds a B.A. from Università Bocconi and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

In-person: Encina Hall E008, Garden-level East (616 Jane Stanford Way Stanford)

Online: Via Zoom

Roberta Gatti
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Flyer for International Academic Cooperation in a Complex and Polarized World

The world is changing rapidly and becoming increasingly polarized, complex, and uncertain. These changes affect many aspects of academia, particularly international collaboration and attitudes toward academia, as observed in the past decade. In addition, several global challenges of varying kinds deeply affect societies worldwide, including academia. Geopolitical and economic developments have reshaped global dynamics previously dominated by the USA. These include the rise of China in several fields, such as its establishment as a strong research nation and the formation of a multipolar world order. The logic of international collaboration as providing a way to solve common challenges more effectively has, to some extent, been replaced by a zero-sum rationale. Many governments increasingly view internationalization efforts through the lens of national and economic security. However, allowing national security concerns to overshadow the positive aspects of international collaboration may restrict researchers’ access to the research front, jeopardize the viability of the innovation ecosystem, and diminish the role of academia in public diplomacy efforts.

This event is part of APARC's Contemporary Asia Seminar Series.

Speaker:

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Headshot for Andreas Gothenberg

Andreas Göthenberg is the Executive Director of STINT (The Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education) since 2009 and a Board Member of Karolinska Institute. He received his M.Sc. and Ph.D. from KTH Royal Institute of Technology (Sweden). Dr Gothenberg was a Post Doctoral Research Fellow at Tokyo Institute of Technology between 2003-2004 and is currently an Adjunct Professor at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. He was a Science & Technology Attaché at the Embassy of Sweden in Tokyo from 2006 to 2009, where he also covered Science & Technology (S&T) development in South Korea. During 2004-2006, he worked as a Center Manager and Senior Researcher in China, setting up joint research & education centers for KTH Royal Institute of Technology at Zhejiang University and Fudan University.

Moderator:

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Headshot of Gi-Wook Shin

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea in Sociology and a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He has served as director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center since 2005, and as founding director of the Korea Program since 2001. His research concentrates on social movements, nationalism, and international relations, focusing on Korea and Asia. He is the author/editor of numerous books and articles, including South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis: The Threats of Illiberalism, Populism, and Polarization and The North Korean Conundrum: Balancing Human Rights and Nuclear Security. His new book, Talent Giants in the Asia-Pacific Century, a comparative study of talent strategies of Japan, Australia, China, and India, will be published by Stanford University Press in 2025.

In 2023, Shin launched the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL), an initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia. In May 2024, he launched the new Taiwan Program at APARC and currently serves as the program director.

Shin previously taught at the University of Iowa and the University of California, Los Angeles. He holds a B.A. from Yonsei University and an M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Washington.

Gi-Wook Shin

Philippines Room, Encina Hall (3rd floor), Room C330
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Andreas Göthenberg Executive Director The Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education
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robb willer

Join the Cyber Policy Center on February 18 from 1PM–2PM Pacific for a seminar with Robb Willer, Director of the Polarization and Social Change Lab and Co-Director of the Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society. Stanford affiliates are invited to join us at 12:40 PM for lunch, prior to the seminar.  

About the Seminar

Advances in large language models (LLMs) now enable simulation of human behavior for application to social science research. In this talk, I present two interrelated lines of work. First, we use GPT-4 to simulate responses of experimental participants, predicting observed experimental effects with accuracy comparable to—or better than—human forecasters, even for unpublished studies. Second, we introduce a generative agent architecture that replicates the responses and behaviors of over 1,000 individuals, approaching the accuracy of repeated self-assessment and largely mitigating gaps in predictive accuracy for different demographic groups. I conclude by highlighting the promise and challenges of leveraging LLMs to augment social science research and inform policy.

About the Speaker

Robb Willer is a Professor of Sociology, Psychology, and Business at Stanford University where he is Director of the Polarization Social Change Lab and Co-Director of the Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society. Willer’s research focuses on addressing critical societal challenges through rigorous scientific methods and practical applications. Working across the fields of social psychology, sociology, political science, organizational behavior, and cognitive science, he aims to develop actionable solutions in three main areas: pathways to healthy democracy, strategies for social change, and rapid application of social science to emerging technologies and current events.


 


 

Stanford Law School Building, Manning Faculty Lounge (Room 270)
559 Nathan Abbott Way Stanford, CA 94305

Robb Willer
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Event flyer: fireside chat with Pita Limjaroenrat. Image: speaker headshot.

Join Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of Thailand’s dissolved Move Forward Party, for a discussion on contemporary Thai politics and society. In this fireside chat, Pita will address audience questions on topics such as Thailand’s political and economic landscape, inequality, and democratic movements, as well as the country’s evolving relationships with ASEAN and major global powers. The discussion will also touch on broader regional challenges and the state of democracy on a global scale.

Limjaroenrat, Pita SEAP 20250228

Pita Limjaroenrat formerly led the Move Forward Party (MFP) in Thailand’s May 2023 general elections, where his social democratic platform won the most votes and seats in the Parliament. Despite this mandate, his attempts to form a government were blocked by institutional mechanisms, and the Constitutional Court dissolved the MFP on August 7. Pita’s policy focus centers on addressing grassroots issues, welfare improvements, and human rights, while advocating for the demilitarization of politics and economic de-monopolization. Currently, he is a Visiting Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. He holds a joint MPA-MBA from Harvard Kennedy School and MIT Sloan and has been named on the TIME 100 Next List. Today, Pita continues to champion transparent and equitable governance on a global scale.

Lunch will be served.

Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Co-Director, Southeast Asia Program at Shorenstein APARC
Pita Limjaroenrat, Visiting Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School
Seminars
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Event flyer: fireside chat with Pita Limjaroenrat. Image: speaker headshot.
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