Stanford University

Energy Security for Developing Countries

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Politicians around the world are in vigorous agreement on the critical importance of "energy security." And yet useful definitions of the term are scarce, as is the recognition that "energy security" means different things to different people. Americans focus most on the risks of imported oil, Europeans on their dependence on Russian natural gas. Less commonly considered in the industrialized world is what energy security means to emerging powers like China and India, desperately poor countries in Africa and South Asia, or even major energy exporters like Russia or states in the Persian Gulf. By making explicit these many "faces" of energy security, we can begin a more useful debate on how to make the global energy economy more robust for all players. This talk will suggest some frameworks for thinking about energy security from both consumer and producer sides, and then explore specific cases in developing and transition economies -- in particular, the perspectives of China as a major importer of oil and Russia as a major exporter of natural gas.

Mark Thurber is Research Program Manager at PESD, where he oversees all aspects of the Program's research and is also directly responsible for research on low-income energy services. Before coming to PESD, Dr. Thurber worked in high-tech industry, focusing on volume manufacturing operations in Mexico, China, and Malaysia. This work included a multi-year assignment in Guadalajara developing local technological capability in precision manufacturing measurements. Dr. Thurber holds a PhD from Stanford University in Mechanical Engineering (Thermosciences) and a BSE from Princeton University in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering with a certificate from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. His academic research has included engineering studies of gas-phase laser diagnostics as well as policy analyses of technology management in the developing world and power plant emissions reductions strategies in the United States.

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Mark C. Thurber

Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
616 Jane Stanford Way
Encina Hall East, Rm E412
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 724-9709 (650) 724-1717
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Mark C. Thurber is Associate Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University, where he studies and teaches about energy and environmental markets and policy. Dr. Thurber has written and edited books and articles on topics including global fossil fuel markets, climate policy, integration of renewable energy into electricity markets, and provision of energy services to low-income populations.

Dr. Thurber co-edited and contributed to Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply  (Cambridge University Press, 2012) and The Global Coal Market: Supplying the Major Fuel for Emerging Economies (Cambridge University Press, 2015). He is the author of Coal (Polity Press, 2019) about why coal has thus far remained the preeminent fuel for electricity generation around the world despite its negative impacts on local air quality and the global climate.

Dr. Thurber teaches a course on energy markets and policy at Stanford, in which he runs a game-based simulation of electricity, carbon, and renewable energy markets. With Dr. Frank Wolak, he also conducts game-based workshops for policymakers and regulators. These workshops explore timely policy topics including how to ensure resource adequacy in a world with very high shares of renewable energy generation.

Dr. Thurber has previous experience working in high-tech industry. From 2003-2005, he was an engineering manager at a plant in Guadalajara, México that manufactured hard disk drive heads. He holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University and a B.S.E. from Princeton University.

Associate Director for Research at PESD
Social Science Research Scholar
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The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World

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In his new book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (Times Books 2008), Larry Diamond intensely scrutinizes the global effort on democracy promotion. By both exploring the sources of progress as well as the locations and reasons for failure, Diamond presents a comprehensive assessment that is realistic but also hopeful. Diamond presents his arguments through a world of examples, citing the negative Putin's Russia and Musharraf's Pakistan; the unsuccessful politically but nevertheless exemplary Toledo's Peru; and even the more difficult places like Nepal, Iran, and Thailand.

By comparing the progress of today with that of the mid 1970s, when he was a Vietnam War protester, Diamond expresses hope. At that time, Diamond notes, barely a quarter of all independent states were using free and fair elections. But times have changed since then: "by the mid-1990s," he writes, "it had become clear to me, as it had to many of my colleagues involved in the global struggle for democracy, that if some three-fifths of the world's states, many of them poor and non-Western, could become democracies, there was no intrinsic reason why the rest of the world could not do as well."

Jessica Tuchman Mathews, president, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that "no one has thought harder or more broadly about the past and future of democracy than Larry Diamond. A passionate treatment, infused with optimism and eminently readable, The Spirit of Democracy is a must for anyone who cares about the toughest challenge of balancing national values and national interests."
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US-Japan Relations with the US Ambassador to Japan, Tom Schieffer

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John Thomas "Tom" Schieffer was sworn in as the 27th U.S. Ambassador to Japan on April 1, 2005, and presented his credentials to the Emperor on April 11, 2005. Since arriving in Japan, he has worked to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance, increase trade, and facilitate the realignment of U.S. forces stationed in Japan, among other issues.

Before being appointed Ambassador to Japan, Schieffer served as the U.S. Ambassador to Australia from July 2001 until February 2005. During his tenure in Canberra, he coordinated closely with the government of Australia on efforts to fight global terrorism and helped to deepen cooperation on rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. He was also heavily involved in the conclusion of a free trade agreement between the U.S. and Australia in May 2004.

Prior to his diplomatic service, Ambassador Schieffer was an investor in the partnership that bought the Texas Rangers Baseball Club in 1989, with George W. Bush and Edward W. "Rusty" Rose. He served as team president for eight years, was responsible for day-to-day operations of the club and overseeing the building of The Ballpark in Arlington, Texas. Ambassador Schieffer has also had a long involvement in Texas politics. He was elected to three terms in the Texas House of Representatives and has been active in many political campaigns.

The Ambassador attended the University of Texas, where he earned a B.A., and a M.A. in international relations, and studied law. He was admitted to the State Bar of Texas in 1979. He is married to Susanne Silber of San Antonio, Texas, and they have one son, Paul.

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John Thomas Schieffer United States Ambassador to Japan Speaker
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Rafiq Dossani speaks on India's arrival in IT

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In 1990, India's information technology sector had only around $100 million in exports. Today, it has become a major force in IT. So how did India's arrival in information technology happen?

On November 27, on the release of his new book, India Arriving: How This Economic Powerhouse is Redefining Global Business, Rafiq Dossani presented a seminar for SPRIE entitled, "Is India a Knowledge Economy?"

India's success in IT has been variously attributed to its widespread knowledge of English, to Indian democracy, or to the Indian educational system. Dossani, using the IT sector as an illustration, posited that this transformation has been a result of political change in India, specifically the transition to a particular type of coalition government.

Dossani also detailed the evolution of how IT companies work in India--for example, how a shift to local managers became critical for success--and discussed the fascinating IT sector developments in cities like Indore, where constant power outages are only a minor obstacle to over fifty small firms exporting software, English language skills aren't a prerequisite for success and private schools are luring faculty away from universities.

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Climate Change and Global Health: Quantifying a Growing Ethical Crisis

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Climate change, as an environmental hazard operating at the global scale, poses a unique and "involuntary exposure" to many societies, and therefore represents possibly the largest health inequity of our time. According to statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), regions or populations already experiencing the most increase in diseases attributable to temperature rise in the past 30 years ironically contain those populations least responsible for causing greenhouse gas warming of the planet. Average global carbon emissions approximate one metric ton per year (tC/yr) per person. In 2004, United States per capita emissions neared 6 tC/yr (with Canada and Australia not far behind), and Japan and Western European countries range from 2 to 5 tC/yr per capita. Yet developing countries' per capita emissions approximate 0.6 tC/yr, and more than 50 countries are below 0.2 tC/yr (or 30-fold less than an average American). This imbalance between populations suffering from an increase in climate-sensitive diseases versus those nations producing greenhouse gases that cause global warming can be quantified using a "natural debt" index, which is the cumulative depleted CO2 emissions per capita. This is a better representation of the responsibility for current warming than a single year's emissions. By this measure, for example, the relative responsibilities of the U.S. in relation to those of India or China is nearly double that using an index of current emissions, although it does not greatly change the relationship between India and China. Rich countries like the U.S. have caused much more of today's warming than poor ones, which have not been emitting at significant levels for many years yet, no matter what current emissions indicate. Along with taking necessary measures to reduce the extent of global warming and the associated impacts, society also needs to pursue equitable solutions that first protect the most vulnerable population groups; be they defined by demographics, income, or location. For example, according to the WHO, 88% of the disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children under age 5 (obviously an innocent and "nonconsenting" segment of the population), presenting another major axis of inequity. Not only is the health burden from climate change itself greatest among the world's poor, but some of the major mitigation approaches to reduce the degree of warming may produce negative side effects disproportionately among the poor, for example, competition for land from biofuels creating pressure on food prices. Of course, in today's globalized world, eventually all nations will share some risk, but underserved populations will suffer first and most strongly from climate change. Moreover, growing recognition that society faces a nonlinear and potentially irreversible threat has deep ethical implications about humanity's stewardship of the planet that affect both rich and poor.

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Religion and IR: The State of the Art

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Ron E. Hassner (speaker) is an assistant professor of political science at University of California, Berkeley. He returns to CISAC as a visiting professor, having served as predoctoral fellow from 2000 to 2003. His research revolves around symbolic and emotive aspects of international security with particular attention to religious violence, Middle Eastern politics and territorial disputes. His publications have focused on the role of perceptions in entrenching international disputes, the causes and characteristics of conflicts over sacred places, the characteristics of political-religious leadership and political-religious mobilization and the role of national symbols in conflict.

Hassner was a fellow of the MacArthur Consortium on Peace and Security in 2000-2003. In 2003-2004 he was a postdoctoral scholar at the Olin Institute for International Security, Harvard University. He is a graduate of Stanford University with degrees in political science and religious studies.

Jacob Shapiro (discussant) is a CISAC postdoctoral fellow. His primary research interest is the organization of terrorism and insurgency. His other research interests include international relations, organization theory, and security policy. Shapiro's ongoing projects study the balance between secrecy and openness in counterterrorism, the impact of international human rights law on democracies' foreign policy, the causes of militant recruitment in Islamic countries, and the relationship between public goods provision and insurgent violence in Iraq and Afghanistan. His research has been published in International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Foreign Policy, and a number of edited volumes. Shapiro is a Harmony Fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy. As a Naval Reserve officer he was assigned to the Office of Naval Intelligence and the Naval Warfare Development Command. He served on active duty at Special Boat Team 20 and onboard the USS Arthur W. Radford (DD-968). He holds a PhD in political science and an MA in economics from Stanford University and a BA in political science from the University of Michigan.

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FSI annual conference brings together scholars, guests to discuss international issues

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"This conference can teach us what there is to do," former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry told faculty, students, and visiting colleagues and friends at FSI's third annual international conference on Nov. 15. "What is needed is the political will to do it."

About 350 people attended this year's conference, "Power and Prosperity: New Dynamics, New Dilemmas," which featured addresses, debates, and discussions on changing patterns of power and prosperity in the international system. Two of Stanford's most distinguished statesmen, former Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Perry, made opening remarks following an introduction by FSI acting director Michael A. McFaul. Providing context for the day's discussion, Christopher discussed issues related to war powers and congressional versus presidential approval for acts of war. (He is currently serving with former Secretary of State James Baker as co-chair of the National War Powers Commission.) Perry outlined what he sees as the two major challenges to international security--nuclear terrorism and climate change--and the fundamental conflict between them.

Two plenary panels and a number of breakout sessions provided the structure for analysis and discussion, and were led by FSI scholars and guests. Shorenstein APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin moderated the morning plenary session, with former ambassadors J. Stapleton Roy, Robert Blackwill, and Michael H. Armacost (a Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow) discussing the rise of China, India, and Japan and how these three countries will shape the international landscape in the future. In the afternoon, CISAC associate director for research Lynn Eden moderated a cross-disciplinary panel on "Critical Connections: Faces of Security in the 21st Century," with Larry Diamond, Hoover senior fellow and CDDRL democracy program coordinator; CISAC Director Scott D. Sagan; and Rosamond L. Naylor, Julie Wrigley Senior Fellow and FSE director, discussing linkages between the Iraq war, nuclear risks, and food security and the environment.

Lunch and dinner addresses were given by Shashi Tharoor, former under-secretary general of the United Nations, and Gilles Kepel, professor of political science and chair of the Middle East and Mediterranean Studies program at Sciences Po. Tharoor, who is also a historian and novelist, spoke about India's soft power--its pluralism, liberal democracy, and globally popular culture--and how this, rather than India's economic potential, may well be the country's greatest asset. Kepel, widely regarded as one of the world's experts on Islamic extremism, talked about what he sees as a decline in fundamentalist Islam. With Iran and Shia Islamists claiming to be the spokespersons for Muslims worldwide, Kepel argued, there is evidence of a division among fundamentalists and a corresponding decline in their actual power.

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