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Abstract: Weapons School is the premier USAF tactical school producing advanced air, space and cyberspace leaders/tacticians capable of transforming and inspiring the nation’s joint combat power. The school is constantly pushing the tactical envelope.  In contrast, the B-52Hs flying today are 53 years old and slated to remain in active service beyond 2040. They represent the most visible portion of the nuclear triad with a legacy of devastating conventional attacks in Vietnam, Iraq, Bosnia and Afghanistan. 

The talk begins with a brief history/mission overview of the Weapons School followed by B-52 capabilities, roles, and missions. Then Lt Col Schendzielos interweaves personal experience to highlight how the USAF’s top warriors prepare for and conduct combat while making sure the B-52H remains a potent force in tomorrow’s fight. 

Speaker Bio: Lieutenant Colonel Schendzielos is a CISAC National Defense Fellow, Weapons Instructor, Electronic Warfare Officer, Strategist, and former Orbital Analyst.   He recently commanded the 340th Weapons Squadron, the Weapons School’s B-52 squadron. He led a cadre of Weapons Instructors teaching a graduate-level 5 ½ month training and integration course consisting of 427 academic hours, 348 flying hours, 19 sorties, and 1,107 weapons.  Lt Col Schendzielos served previously as Director of 13th Air Force Commander’s Action Group; Strategy Division Deputy Director; Weapons and Tactics Flight Commander; Bomb Wing/Operations Group Executive Officer; and Space Control Analyst/Orbital Analyst, deploying three times accumulating over 270 combat flight hours. He graduated Air War College, Army School of Advanced Military Studies, Army Command and General Staff College, Air Command and Staff College, USAF Weapons School, Squadron Officer School and the USAF Academy. He holds a Master of Military Arts and Sciences in Military Space Application, Master of Military Arts and Science in Theater Operations and Bachelor of Science in Political Science.

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Kurt Schendzielos USAF National Defense Fellow, CISAC Speaker
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The Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University is pleased to announce the 2015 class of undergraduate senior honors students. 

Honors students will spend four quarters participating in research seminars to refine their proposed thesis topic, while working in consultation with a CDDRL faculty advisor to supervise their project. In September, the group will travel to Washington, D.C. for honors college where they will visit leading government and development organizations to witness policymaking in practice and consult with key decision-makers.

Please join CDDRL in congratulating the 2015 Senior Honors students and welcoming them to the Center.

Below are profiles of the nine honors students highlighting their academic interests, why they applied to CDDRL, and some fun facts.  

 


Monica Dey

Major: Human Biology

Hometown: Nashville, TN

Thesis Title: Evaluating Information and Communication Technologies for Reproductive and Sexual Health in Uganda

Thesis Advisor: Josh Cohen

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Sexual and reproductive health is a significant problem all over the world, but especially in developing countries.  In Uganda, which has some of the highest fertility and highest maternal mortality rates in the world, investment and improvement in sexual and reproductive health could have enormous consequences for economic development, education equality, and public health.  In addition, with the boom in mobile technology in even rural regions, it is essential that civil society organizations and local governments discover the most effective methods to apply this technology to the toughest problems in sexual and reproductive health.  I hope to evaluate the pitfalls and potential of these mobile interventions, as well as recommend best practices for the field.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I love the interdisciplinary environment of the CDDRL, whose professors hail from departments all over the university.  I believe it is essential to approach development issues from a multitude of perspectives, and this philosophy is ingrained into the values of the CDDRL.  I am so honored to be able to learn from this community of scholars who care deeply about working together to create real impact with their research.

Future aspiration post-Stanford: I will continue working on international development issues after graduation, as well as attend medical school after taking a gap year (or two).

What are your summer research plans: I will be interviewing a cross-section of Ugandan society (public officials, organizational leaders, local people, and more) both remotely and hopefully in the field.

Fun fact about yourself: I went kayaking for the first time on the Nile River last summer!


Selamile Dlamini

Major: Management Science & Engineering

Hometown: Ezulwini, Swaziland

Thesis Title: Political Participation in Swaziland  

Thesis Advisors: Larry Diamond & Joel Samoff

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Political science presents several theories about how and why democratization occurs. Despite the democratic transitions that occured in sub-Saharan Africa during the post-colonial period, Swaziland has remained largely politically unchanged. My thesis will present Swaziland's interaction with the theories proposed in of political science, and demonstrate the extent to which events in Swaziland fit into these theories. Moreover, it will show the extent to which Swaziland differs, and presents additional nuance to the theories and models discussed in the field of democracy, development and the rule of law. This is particularly important in sub-Saharan Africa, where the presence and quality of democracy has been shown to be closely correlated to the development outcomes. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I am inspired by the fact that it is an interdisciplinary program, therefore, I can explore a single subject through multiple lenses.

Future aspiration post-Stanford: Eat, pray, love, and make a positive impact in the world.

What are your summer research plans: I will get started with the readings on my thesis reading list in June, and go to Swaziland to conduct some interviews in August.

Fun fact about yourself: I love writing fiction!


Max Johnson

Major: International Relations

Hometown: Edina, Minnesota

Thesis Title: The Economic and Political Scenarios for Cuban Regime Change and their Policy Implications 

Thesis Advisor: Alberto Diaz-Cayeros

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Cuba is one of the last staunch political strongholds resisting what many say is an inevitable fall to democracy. I believe understanding how this transition might take place will reveal a lot about democratic development and the formation of free markets. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I visited Cuba in 2011 and fell in love with the landscape and culture. The Cuban people are so beautiful and eager to live fruitfully and contribute to global society. I want to use my thesis to explore the multiple political perspectives of Cubans in Miami and Havana and try to predict how their lives will change with the end of the Castro regime. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: Find a fulfilling career that has an international perspective and will allow me to impact the lives of others in a positive way. And live in New York City. 

What are your summer research plans: I will be interning at the Project on Government Oversight in Washington D.C. where I'll be learning about corruption and transparency advocacy. I will also spend part of August in Miami interviewing Cuban-American activists and political leaders. 

Fun fact about yourself: I was a vegetarian my entire life until last summer when I lived in Port au-Prince, Haiti and was compelled to eat chicken. One thing lead to another and I found myself studying abroad in Madrid eating plates of freshly cured jamon Iberico every week. Needless to say, I've tasted the forbidden fruit, and I'm never going back! 


Hamin Kim

Major: Human Biology

Hometown: San Jose, CA

Thesis Title: Tuberculosis Control in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Thesis Advisor: Gary Schoolnik

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law?  Public health is important to the development and well-being of the local, regional, and global society. Management of infectious diseases also requires much coordination between the existing infrastructure and internal, as well as external resources. My research project on tuberculosis control investigates the process of building a control program for a widespread infectious disease. It illuminates the areas of need for development in the infrastructure and society of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, as well as the constraints and challenges in delivering the aid. Examining the management of a public health issue opens up a unique platform to investigate and aid the development of a reclusive nation. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?   The CDDRL undergraduate honors program offers the network and support of experts. I was attracted by the multifaceted focus on global issues, and was excited to examine development when democracy and the rule of law may not be manifested in the form that we expect. The required courses and readings would broaden my perspectives about the way that the world functions. Moreover, the expert guidance from professors would help me to apply these new insights to my research topic. The interdisciplinary group of colleagues who would participate in the program with me also attracted me. This is a unique opportunity to learn about global issues through lenses of different expertise and focus. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: My Stanford education has prepared me to engage people, culture, and issues with curiosity and critical examination. As a Human Biology major with an area of concentration in Global Health, I have been exposed to various issues which affect the health of many people around the world. After Stanford, I wish to become a physician with a global perspective who cares for patients in the context of their whole persons—their cultural, as well as personal, beliefs. I also hope to be involved in global health policy development and public health management in foreign countries. 

What are your summer research plans: I will conduct individual interviews with various health experts and gather information through file and literature reviews. 

Fun fact about yourself: Something I appreciate about college is that it has developed many new interests which I never knew I had. After joining Testimony A Cappella, I changed from not wanting to sing even in front of my family to breaking out in song and harmonizing whenever and wherever. I have recently revived my love of social dance and hope to pursue this further in my last year at Stanford!


Stefan Norgaard

Major: Public Policy

Hometown:  Boulder, Colorado

Thesis Title: The “Born Free Generation” and the Future of South African Democracy: Shaping a Transition to Accountable Governance

Thesis Advisor: Larry Diamond

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law?  In South Africa today, around 40 percent of the population is under 18 years and fully half of its people are under 25. These young South Africans have grown up in a fully different South Africa than that of their parents: apartheid rule, once a harsh reality, is now a past event even as racial divisions persist, and many youth only know the rule of the African National Congress (ANC) party, which has governed since Nelson Mandela’s 1994 election.  This “born free” generation has witnessed the fragile democratic system created by Mandela cave under increasingly stressed institutions during the Mbeki and Zuma presidencies. As young South Africans turn to new methods to make their voices heard, the upcoming 2014 elections may mark the beginning of a period of political realignment, a sounding call for accountable, issue-based governance. In this election, over 4 million of South Africa’s 50 million people will be eligible to vote for the first time, and they are increasingly frustrated about the lack of efficacy in South Africa’s government. A youth population that chooses not to engage through democratic channels may fail to reinvigorate a struggling nation. On the other hand, a population that translates its electoral significance into new government policies can help ignite a long-term political realignment in South African civil society.   

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  The CDDRL Honors Program offers superb faculty support and mentorship, a cohort of like-minded students pursuing similar thesis topics, and an interdisciplinary framework that allows for a capstone intellectual experience.  I heard from previous CDDRL Honors Program participants that Professor Larry Diamond, Professor Frank Fukuyama, and numerous other CDDRL-affiliated faculty support and mentor students, challenging them to produce the best theses they can.  In addition, the thesis coursework and Honors College experience allow for students to make close friendships with others interested in democracy, development, and the rule of law.  Finally, CDDRL’s interdisciplinary component will allow me to write a thesis on South Africa using historical accounts, ethnographic interviews, and quantitative survey data.  Using all three research methods will give me the type of comprehensive intellectual experience I was looking for in my thesis.  

Future aspiration post-Stanford:  Though I am not sure what my future will hold, I hope to spend time working internationally, ideally in public service.  I am drawn to social entrepreneurship, civic and political engagement through government service or advocacy, and the nonprofit and nongovernmental sector.  I love seeing new places and spending time in the outdoors, and hope that my future allows for such experiences as well.  As I learn more about myself as an individual, I hope to discover where I am most effective as an agent of social change and where I feel most passionately about the work I am doing.  I hope to ultimately attend law school and advocate on behalf of the public interest.    

What are your summer research plans: I plan to conduct research in Johannesburg and Bloemfontein, South Africa for my thesis while I work and stay at an urban planning and development nonprofit—the Global Regeneration Initiative for Neighborhood Development (GRIND)—in Johannesburg’s Maboneng Precinct. In my work I will apply coursework in Public Policy and Urban Studies with the larger goal of planning and developing a diverse and integrated urban neighborhood in Johannesburg.  A second portion of my summer will be solely dedicated to thesis work in Johannesburg and Bloemfontein.  

Fun fact about yourself: A Colorado native, I love climbing and mountaineering.  Of the continental United State’s 67 tallest 14,000 foot mountains (also known as “14ers”), I have climbed over 20 of them, and hope to one day climb them all!  


Cara Reichard

Major: Political Science

Hometown: Carlsbad, CA

Thesis Title: Regional Solutions for Human Rights in Sub-Saharan Africa

Thesis Advisor: Helen Stacy

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Many sub-Saharan African nations have, since independence, struggled with the protection of the human rights of their citizens. I believe this topic is important because it will, hopefully, offer perspective on ways in which human rights promotion can best be integrated into the current political and economic situations of these countries.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? Since freshman year I knew that I wanted to write a senior thesis, and CDDRL seemed by far the best fit for my interests. I was also attracted by the idea of being a part of a community of students who also cared about these issues and were eager to answer research questions of their own. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: I am still very undecided on my future goals, though I am strongly considering law school. After I graduate from Stanford I hope to spend a few years working in Washington, D.C. on something policy-related.

What are your summer research plans: For the first part of the summer I will be in Washington, D.C. working at the U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor. After that, I will travel to Arusha, Tanzania, to conduct research for my thesis on the East African Court of Justice.


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Ashley Semanskee

Major:  Human Biology

Hometown: Edmonds, WA

Thesis Title: Private Wealth and Public Policy: Philanthropy, democracy, and public education reform in urban school districts

Thesis Advisor: Stephen Stedman

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? It is important to understand the role of philanthropy and other private actors in public policy debates, particularly in the realm of public education policy because it affects almost every child in the United States. Although philanthropic foundations may be important to drive education reform forward in a stagnant and torpid political process, the political influence of foundations may shut out the contributions of reformers without the wealth to legitimize their ideas, and it may undercut the public’s voice in education reform. Specifically, the school reform movement in recent decades has largely been driven by philanthropic foundations and .has pushed for market-based solutions including small schools, school choice, charter schools, and pay-for-performance schemes for teachers. However, opponents point out that market-based reforms do little to mediate the effect of poverty on education outcomes. Through this thesis, I will explore the education outcomes of opposing reform paradigms, and how philanthropic foundations can be held more accountable to local communities. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program? I was attracted to the CDDRL honors program because I want to learn about issues that matter, study the policy debates that are shaping our world and, above all, perform research with real policy implications. I am incredibly grateful for the opportunity work with faculty members and a cohort of like-minded Stanford students as enthusiastic about democracy and development as I am. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: After graduation, I hope to pursue my joint interests in health and education policy, and eventually apply to a MPH/MBA program. 

What are your summer research plans: I will conduct interviews and data collection on the outcomes of public school reform in the Washington DC and New York City school districts. 

Fun fact about yourself:  Like Garima, I am a twin. I have a sister, Casey, studying business at the University of Washington. 


Garima Sharma

Major: Economics

Hometown: New Delhi, India

Thesis Title: Factors Shaping Parent Aspirations for Daughters in small-town Indian communities

Thesis Advisor: Christine Wotipka

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? India is home to 24 million child brides—the largest of any country in the world. The early marriage of a girl represents a trade-off in terms of her education, health and wellbeing. When compared with her overage counterparts, a child bride is twice as likely to suffer from spousal domestic violence, 2.5 times more likely to experience unwanted pregnancies, and 1.5 times more likely to die in child birth; her children are 3 times more likely to be malnourished. Because parents’ decisions for their daughter necessarily follow their aspirations on her behalf, understanding the latter is the first step to formulating policy and programs that alter incentives for encouraging female enrolment in school and delaying child marriage. I hope that my thesis is able to create new knowledge on parental aspirations in pursuit of this goal.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I am drawn towards the interdisciplinary nature of the CDDRL program because it is well suited for my thesis, which employs a mixed methods design and draws from literature in development economics as well as feminist theory. Incorporating various lenses for analysis will enable me to glean a more holistic understanding of factors that shape parent aspirations (for daughters) than would a purely economic or purely feminist approach. Additionally, I believe that the support provided through the year-long CDDRL Honors Seminar will be invaluable in terms of the design and execution of my field research and data analysis. Finally, I am excited by the prospect of working with a community of scholars (both Professors and peers) who come from many different academic backgrounds and interests, and will, through their insight on my proposed topic, enrich my learning as well as my research.

Future aspiration post-Stanford:  I hope to leverage policy to advance women’s rights in India and across the world. 

What are your summer research plans: For the first part of the summer, I will be working as a Stanford in Government Fellow at the International Labour Organization DWT South Asia office in Delhi. I will then travel to Forbesganj, Bihar to conduct field research for my thesis.

Fun fact about yourself: I am one of two. I have a twin sister, named Anima, who attends medical school in India.


Thuy Tran

Major: Economics

Hometown: San Diego, California

Thesis Title: What´s in it for us? The Incentives and Strategic Decisions by For-Profit Firms to Engage in Social Impact Initiatives.

Thesis Advisor: Stephen Krasner

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? Consumers these days are eager to take part in social change and large corporations have lately made this very easy for consumers; companies like TOMS Shoes that base their business models on charitable giving, as well as companies that attach social causes to their products, are very popular among citizens interested in being "charitable". Obviously, these companies have motivations for participating in social change movements and this recent phenomenon of "corporate social responsibility" shows how corporations are adapting to changing societal preferences. But whether these initiatives are effective is another issue and it is crucial that these companies are not doing more harm than good. Understanding the incentives for firms to engage in social impact is the first step to assessing the level of success of these programs.

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I was drawn to the CDDRL undergraduate honors program because of the possibility to establish strong relationships with my fellow honors students and faculty in the CDDRL. The program offers a chance for students to closely interact with each other during the honors thesis process and I am sure that we will all be able to teach each other something new. I am also very excited to work closely with the CDDRL faculty and for the opportunity to pick their brains! 

Future aspiration post-Stanford: I would love a career that allows me to combine my technical and artistic interests, that makes me excited to go to work, and that allows me learn new things everyday! 

What are your summer research plans:  I plan on doing extensive research into particular industries that engage in social impact projects, namely consumer brands and also companies that have built their business models on charitable giving. Hopefully I will also have a chance to interview decision makers at these companies as well to better understand the true incentives and thought processes behind corporate social responsibility tactics. 

Fun fact about yourself: When I was younger, I used to hate the first day of school because none of my teachers knew how to pronounce my name! 

 


Shawn Tuteja

Major: Mathematics

Hometown: Birmingham, Alabama

Thesis Title: Rethinking the Institutional Design of Deliberative Democracy through an Analysis of the Impact of the Moderator 

Thesis Advisor: James Fishkin

Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? When deliberative democracy is implemented, it usually takes the form of members of society gathering to debate key issues. Moderators usually facilitate these discussions, and the key assumption is that the moderators do not influence the people's final opinions. I argue that there is a great amount of statistical analysis that has not been done to verify this assumption. If the moderator does contribute to people's opinions, it may mean that we should rethink the institutional design of these processes. 

What attracted you to the CDDRL undergrad honors program?  I have ben interested in issues of international affairs and democracy since I was in high school, and I wanted the opportunity to explore these passions in an honors thesis. The CDDRL undergraduate honors program provided the perfect opportunity. 

Future aspiration post-Stanford:  I hope to continue studying and learning skills (such as the ones that I will hone in working on this honors thesis) to better society through whatever job I eventually decide on.   

What are your summer research plans:  I will work to test the mass amounts of data that I will be working with. This includes designing a coding system, running statistical analysis, and analyzing the results. 

Fun fact about yourself: I once starred in a PBS TV show on the benefits of recycling. Oh, and I'm a huge fan of the TV show Friday Night Lights.

 

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The Obama administration’s “rebalance” to Asia is about much more than China’s rise and changing role in the region, but US-China relations are an integral part of the new policy and the way it is perceived and characterized by others in the Asia-Pacific region.  The keynote address and comments by American and Chinese scholars with years of government experience will examine the objectives and implications of the “rebalance” and what it means for the United States, China, and US-China relations.

Keynote Speaker:

Kenneth LieberthalDr. Kenneth Lieberthal is a senior fellow in Foreign Policy and Global Economy and Development at Brookings. From 2009-2012, Lieberthal served as the director of the John L. Thornton China Center. Lieberthal was a professor at the University of Michigan for 1983-2009. He has authored 24 books and monographs and over 70 articles, mostly dealing with China. He also served as special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Asia on the National Security Council from August 1998 to October 2000. His government responsibilities encompassed U.S. policy toward Northeast, East and Southeast Asia. His latest book, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (co-authored with Martin Indyk and Michael O’Hanlon), was published by the Brookings Press in March 2012. Leiberthal earned his B.A. from Darthmouth College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Columbia University


Panelists:

Mike ArmacostWelcome remarks - Dr. Michael Armacost is the Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow. He has been at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) since 2002. In the interval between 1995 and 2002, Armacost served as president of Washington, D.C.'s Brookings Institution, the nation's oldest think tank and a leader in research on politics, government, international affairs, economics, and public policy. Previously, during his twenty-four year government career, Armacost served, among other positions, as undersecretary of state for political affairs and as ambassador to Japan and the Philippines. 

 

 

 

Jean OiPanel Chair - Professor Jean Oi is the William Haas Professor in Chinese Politics in the department of political science and a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. Oi is the founding director of the Stanford China Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. She leads Stanford's China Initiative, and is the Lee Shau Kee Director of the Stanford Center at Peking University. Oi directed Stanford's Center for East Asian Studies from 1998 to 2005. A PhD in political science from the University of Michigan, Oi first taught at Lehigh University and later in the department of government at Harvard University before joining the Stanford faculty in 1997.

 

 

Karl EikenberryAmbassador Karl Eikenberry is the William J. Perry Fellow in International Security at CISAC, CDDRL, TEC, and Shorenstein APARC Distinguished Fellow; and Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and Retired U.S. Army Lt. General. Prior to his arrival at Stanford, he served as the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan from May 2009 until July 2011, where he led the civilian surge directed by President Obama to reverse insurgent momentum and set the conditions for transition to full Afghan sovereignty. Before appointment as Chief of Mission in Kabul, Ambassador Eikenberry had a thirty-five year career in the United States Army, retiring in April 2009 with the rank of Lieutenant General.  His military operational posts included commander and staff officer with mechanized, light, airborne, and ranger infantry units in the continental U.S., Hawaii, Korea, Italy, and Afghanistan as the Commander of the American-led Coalition forces from 2005-2007.

 

Cui LiruDr. CUI Liru is Senior Advisor to China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a think-tank in China known for its comprehensive studies on current international affairs and prominent role in providing consulting services to the Chinese government and former President of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). He is a member of the Committee of Foreign Affairs of the Chinese Peoples’ Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and also serves as a member of the Foreign Policy Consulting Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He is Vice President of China National Association for International Studies (CNAIS) and serves as Senior Adviser to multiple institutions for the study of national security and foreign relations. As a senior researcher, his specialties cover U.S. foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, international security issues and Chinese foreign policy.

 

Tom Fingar

 

Professor Tom Fingar is the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow. From May 2005 through December 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. He served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2004–2005), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001–2003), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994–2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989–1994), and chief of the China Division (1986–1989). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

 

The Oksenberg Lecture, held annually, honors the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001). A senior fellow at Shorenstein APARC and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Professor Oksenberg served as a key member of the National Security Council when the United States normalized relations with China, and consistently urged that the United States engage with Asia in a more considered manner. In tribute, the Oksenberg Conference/Lecture recognizes distinguished individuals who have helped to advance understanding between the United States and the nations of the Asia-Pacific.

Please note: this event is off-the-record.

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In this Reuters blog post CISAC Affiliate and South Asia expert Anja Manuel explains that, while India now has more equal wealth distribution than the United States, the outcome of the ongoing general election in India could shift the economic dynamics at play in the country.

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Keynote Speakers

WANG YIMING, Deputy Secretary General, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)

The Institutional Problems in China’s Urbanization Process

CAI FANG, Director, Institute of Population Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences

Urbanization and Labor Markets in China

LI SHUZHUO, Director, Institute for Population and Development Studies, School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University

Fertility, Sex Ratio, and Family Planning Policies in China

Stanford Center at Peking University

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Has the global food price bubble  burst, and if so, does it matter? In the first installment of FSE's new Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series, Professor Thomas Hertel of Purdue University and Professor Johann Swinnen of Leuven University outlined global trends in the cost of food, and explained how a drop in prices after the food price shocks of 2007-2008 might affect global politics and economics.

What drives food prices?

As population growth and rising incomes put pressure on the global food supply, many scholars consider high food costs to be the "new normal," especially following the food price shocks of 2007-2008. Professor Thomas Hertel challenged this view, saying that "To look forward 45 years, you have to look back 45 years" at what factors actually impact food prices.

Prices for many food commodities fell between 1961 and 2006, despite strong population and income growth, because the world was able to triple crop production during the same period. Since the recent price spikes, the "food price bubble" seems to have burst, with prices falling steadily since 2009.

Although population will continue to grow over the next several decades, the rate of growth is slowing worldwide and is mostly concentrated in developing countries, where per capita purchasing power is relatively low. This minimizes the pressure that population growth puts on the global food supply.

Economic factors may be more influential. "For the first time in history," Hertel said, "income will surpass population as a driver of global food demand." As countries move up the income scale, they consume richer diets of input-intensive products like meat, dairy and processed foods.

Energy prices also influence global food costs. As oil and gas prices rise, demand grows for alternative fuels like ethanol. Half of the increase in corn production over the past several decades came from the growing demand for ethanol, which was fueled by government mandates and which drove up the global price of corn. These mandates have been rolled back in recent years, however, and demand growth for biofuels has waned.

Hertel added that issues around climate change, urbanization, water supply, food waste and deforestation may also impact global food prices in the future.

Many scholars point to crop yields as a way to close the gap between food supply and demand and keep prices low. But Hertel cautioned that scientists and policymakers may be constrained by technical and economic limits.

To further increase yields "is a bigger job than simply doing some more science in the lab," Hertel said. But he noted with optimism that new investments in research and development have risen sharply from both the public and private sector, particularly in countries like China, India and Brazil where food security is a pressing issue. 

Impacts of the food price bubble

Professor Johann Swinnen explained that if the food price bubble has in fact burst, the next several years are likely to bring a shift in the politics and economics of global food issues.

The recent bubble coincided with an increase in both policy attention and donor funding to combat food insecurity - a focus that has benefitted both farmers and consumers, but that could wane as prices fall.

While the high prices of 2007-2008 benefited farmers, they in turn hurt low-income consumers in urban areas. And because people in high-density areas find it easier to organize and voice their concerns over government policies, they are more likely to capture media attention.

This "urban bias," as Swinnen described it, influenced policymakers to respond to the heavy media coverage. His team found that after 2007, agricultural funding from the World Bank, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) all rose sharply. The percentage of global development aid targeted toward agriculture also grew.

Swinnen described the social and political conditions of 2007-2008 as a "perfect storm" that shifted the attention of policymakers toward global food security investments. Paradoxically, Swinnen explained, this policy response to urban unrest over food prices ultimately benefitted both rural and urban populations, by boosting agricultural investments for food producers while also helping lower costs for consumers.

 The Food and Nutrition Policy Symposium Series will run for three years and will consist of a total of ten lectures spanning a wide range of issues around global food and nutrition policy. It is funded by Zachary Nelson, '84 and Elizabeth Horn. The series follows on the successful two-year Global Food Policy and Food Security Symposium Series which concluded in May 2013 and was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Abstract: Motivated by India’s nationwide biometric program for social inclusion, we analyze verification (i.e., one-to-one matching) in the case where we possess similarity scores for 10 fingerprints and two irises between a resident’s biometric images at enrollment and his biometric images during his first verification. At subsequent verifications, we allow individualized strategies based on these 12 scores: we acquire a subset of the 12 images, get new scores for this subset that quantify the similarity to the corresponding enrollment images, and use the likelihood ratio (i.e., the likelihood of observing these scores if the resident is genuine divided by the corresponding likelihood if the resident is an imposter) to decide whether a resident is genuine or an imposter. We also consider two-stage policies, where additional images are acquired in a second stage if the first-stage results are inconclusive. Using performance data from India’s program, we develop a new probabilistic model for the joint distribution of the 12 similarity scores and find near-optimal individualized strategies that minimize the false reject rate (FRR) subject to constraints on the false accept rate (FAR) and mean verification delay for each resident. Our individualized policies achieve the same FRR as a policy that acquires (and optimally fuses) 12 biometrics for each resident, which represents a five (four, respectively) log reduction in FRR relative to fingerprint (iris, respectively) policies previously proposed for India’s biometric program. The mean delay is  sec for our proposed policy, compared to 30 sec for a policy that acquires one fingerprint and 107 sec for a policy that acquires all 12 biometrics. This policy acquires iris scans from 32–41% of residents (depending on the FAR) and acquires an average of 1.3 fingerprints per resident.

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Lawrence M. Wein
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Corn yields in the central United States have become more sensitive to drought conditions in the past two decades, according to a new study in the journal Science from a team led FSE associate director David Lobell.

"The Corn Belt is phenomenally productive," Lobell said, referring to the region of Midwestern states where much of the country's corn is grown. "But in the past two decades we saw very small yield gains in non-irrigated corn under the hottest conditions. This suggests farmers may be pushing the limits of what's possible under these conditions."

He predicted that at current levels of temperature sensitivity, crops could lose 15 percent of their yield within 50 years, or as much as 30 percent if crops continue the trend of becoming more sensitive over time.

As Lobell explained, the quest to maximize crop yields has been a driving force behind agricultural research as the world's population grows and climate change puts pressure on global food production. One big challenge for climate science is whether crops can adapt to climate change by becoming less sensitive to hotter and drier weather.

"The data clearly indicate that drought stress for corn and soy comes partly from low rain, but even more so from hot and dry air. Plants have to trade water to get carbon from the air to grow, and the terms of that trade become much less favorable when it's hot," said Lobell, also the lead author for a chapter in the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, which details a consensus view on the current state and fate of the world's climate.

Rain, temperature, humidity

The United States produces 40 percent of the world's corn, mostly in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. As more than 80 percent of U.S. agricultural land relies on natural rainfall rather than irrigation, corn farmers in these regions depend on precipitation, air temperature and humidity for optimal plant growth.

According to the research, over the last few decades, corn in the United States has been modified with new traits, like more effective roots that better access water and built-in pest resistance to protect against soil insects. These traits allow farmers to plant seeds closer together in a field, and have helped farmers steadily raise yields in typical years.

But in drought conditions, densely planted corn can suffer higher stress and produce lower yields. In contrast, soybeans have not been planted more densely in recent decades and show no signs of increased sensitivity to drought, the report noted.

Drought conditions are expected to become even more challenging as temperatures continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the researchers said.

Lobell said, "Recent yield progress is overall a good news story. But because farm yields are improving fastest in favorable weather, the stakes for having such weather are rising. In other words, the negative impacts of hot and dry weather are rising at the same time that climate change is expected to bring more such weather."

Extensive data

Lobell's team examined an unprecedented amount of detailed field data from more than 1 million USDA crop insurance records between 1995 and 2012.

"The idea was pretty simple," he said. "We determined which conditions really matter for corn and soy yields, and then tracked how farmers were doing at different levels of these conditions over time. But to do that well, you really need a lot of data, and this dataset was a beauty."

Lobell said he hopes that the research can help inform researchers and policymakers so they can make better decisions.

"I think it's exciting that data like this now exist to see what's actually happening in fields. By taking advantage of this data, we can learn a lot fairly quickly," he said. "Of course, our hope is to improve the situation. But these results challenge the idea that U.S. agriculture will just easily adapt to climate changes because we invest a lot and are really high-tech."

Lobell and colleagues are also looking at ways crops may perform better under increasingly hot conditions. "But I wouldn't expect any miracles," he said. "It will take targeted efforts, and even then gains could be modest. There's only so much a plant can do when it is hot and dry."

This animation shows the increasing sensitivity of U.S. corn to drought over time. Animation by Carlo Di Bonito.

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In conversation with Shorenstein APARC, Karen Eggleston, center fellow and director of the Asia Health Policy Program, reflects on her initial draw to Asian studies and eventual focus on comparative Asia health policy. She also shares perspectives on health reform in China and demographic change across East Asia, and talks about related upcoming activities.

How did you begin in Asia health policy?

I have long been interested in Asia in general. My initial appeal to the region came from my family’s roots (my grandfather taught Korean history at Berkeley) and early international travel. Only much later in graduate school did I come to the area of economics as a discipline and health policy as my specialty; however, I had been attracted to economic development and social policy in Asia earlier on. I started with an undergraduate degree in Asian studies, which followed with a Masters degree in Asian studies specifically focused on China and Korea. During graduate school, my father-in-law introduced me to unique perspectives, as he was a physician in China. When he visited the United States to present his work, I helped translate his findings. As my career developed, I had the privilege of working with many inspiring health economists, and economists interested in health policy, some of whom acted as my mentors at Harvard and here at Stanford - János Kornai, Victor Fuchs, Joseph Newhouse, Richard Zeckhauser, and Jay Bhattacharya, to name a few. These experiences helped to further narrow my focus and interests.

What led you to Stanford?

It was extremely exciting when the opportunity arose to come to Stanford. The university is a world-class learning environment and is unique in having a health policy program focused on Asia. I was recruited to the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at the founding of the Asia Health Policy Program. The Program is distinctive given its comparative approach focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, which differs from most other institutions. The west coast is also geographically closer to Asia, so you get a ‘flavor’ and infusion of Asian studies here more so than on the east coast. Not to mention, it was a delight to come back to my home state of California after many long years of New England winters.

To be a successful scholar of global health policy, what tools or perspectives should one be informed about?

Global health policy is a very complex field, and can be approached many ways. This, of course, makes it both exciting and challenging. My own approach is through the lens of economics. If you are looking at research and evidence-based policy, it can be beneficial to have either a social science background or a medical-clinical discipline (or both), perhaps combined with a specific geographic focus. Knowing about the history, culture, and institutions are very important for understanding health policy challenges. It also helps to build capacity within that region of focus. Partnering with practitioners and scholars in the country or region allows you to know what is really happening on-the-ground, and feed the research back into local policy decisions. I also think it is important to emphasize evidence over ideology – for example, to keep clear in your mind whether you are more of a policy advocate or academic. A scholar can play varying roles at different times in their careers, but it isn’t easy to do both fully at once. 

As China’s population and social inequalities continue to grow, are its current governance structures sustainable?

Even though political economy is not my expertise, institutions and how they adapt to a society’s needs is pertinent to anyone looking at health reform. For example, in China, there has been a lot of debate since the leadership transition and its implications for national health administration. Should health policy be led solely by the Ministry of Health, now the Health and Family Planning Commission? The Ministry runs the hospitals but is not in charge of the urban insurance system – this falls to Labor and Human Resources. Other branches of government administer regulation, pricing and other aspects of health policy. And of course the Ministry of Finance, and National Development and Reform Commission, play key roles. Like many countries, China has over 14 different ministries and agencies that are involved in the organization of its health system. Thus a relevant question is: who is in charge of taking the next step and coordinating between those entities? A health reform office was established directly under the State Council. Population aging is another issue that spans multiple sectors and policymaking entities. The Chinese government will be impelled to adapt its policies to face new challenges.

What are the connections between health policy and demographic change? Can you tell us about your upcoming work?

One important connection between health policy and demographic change is that the burden of disease changes as the population changes. A country with a large young population (like India) will have a different burden of disease than a country with a large older population (like Japan). If fertility and mortality rates decline, the burden of disease shifts toward chronic, non-communicable disease incidence. Partly, this trend reflects a ‘triumph’ from control of infectious disease and the demographic transition (with longer lives and lower fertility), but then it presents a new set of challenges for society to deal with problems of that older population. Some of my work compares China and India, which have similarities in size and socio-economic diversity. This May, I am helping to organize a conference at the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing with my Stanford colleagues Jean Oi, Scott Rozelle and Xueguang Zhou, and our collaborators at the PRC National Development and Reform Commission. The conference will compare urbanization and demographic trends in China and India. It is envisioned that the conference will lead to two separate book projects – one on urbanization in China in comparative perspective and another on demographic change in China and India. We will also present findings that were an outcome of a three-year research project, with initial findings published in The Journal of Asian Studies.

Tell us something we don’t know about you.

In my youth, I was very much into equestrian vaulting and played the violin. As one of my mentors said to all his students, ‘you might not be the world’s best at any one category, but if you look at the overlap between different categories, you could be distinctive.’ So I might very well be one of the world’s only horse-vaulting, violin-playing health economists, for what it’s worth.

The Faculty Spotlight Q&A series highlights a different faculty member at Shorenstein APARC each month giving a personal look at his or her scholarly approaches and outlook on related topics and upcoming activities.

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