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Scholars, law enforcement officials, business leaders and community activists will meet next week at Stanford to examine violence and policing in Latin American and the United States.

A two-day conference beginning April 28 will highlight the work of entrepreneurs and grassroots organizations trying to reduce violence and rebuild civil society. The gathering is hosted by the Program on Poverty and Governance (PovGov) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. It is hosted in partnership with the Bill Lane Center for the American West, the Center for Latin American Studies, the ‘Mexico Initiative’ at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation.

"Violence linked to drug trafficking, gang wars and criminality is one of the leading barriers to development that effects the lives of millions in Latin America,” said Beatriz Magaloni, an associate professor of political science who directs PovGov, a program that studies the links between public action, goverance and poverty.

“The conference brings together people who have dealt with these problems in cities in Latin America and in the U.S. Seldom is the case that we bring to campus practitioners with first-hand experience dealing with some of the most pressing problems the hemisphere is confronting,” said Magaloni, who is also a senior fellow at FSI. 

The first day of the conference will feature a panel with Jose Galicot, the driving force of Tijuana Innovadora, a movement that helped Tijuana recover from devastating criminal activity and violence the last four years. Galicot will be joined by Jailson Silva, from Observatório of Favelas, one of the most reputable grass-roots organizations in the slums of Rio that undertakes research, consultancy and public actions focused on the city's favelas.

Many violence-plagued cities in the U.S. have implemented innovative initiatives to address the challenge that have included community policing tools and youth violence interventions. Similar initiatives are also taking place in Latin America with varying degrees of success. One of the goals of the conference is to get practitioners to share their experiences and best practices to reduce violence in major cities.

One of three featured keynote speakers, Sergio Fajardo, the current governor of Antioquia, Colombia, will speak on April 29 and help build the foundation for such dialogue. From 2003 to 2007, Fajardo implemented an effective strategy to reduce the level of violence in Medellin while he was mayor of the Colombian city.

By providing alternatives to illicit work, allocating resources to the most disadvantage areas, reclaiming public spaces and fostering dialogue among different sectors of society to create a sense of collective ownership, Fajardo transformed Medellin.

The two other keynotes include Mariano Beltrame, minister of security of Rio de Janeiro who is credited for the enactment and implementation of the Pacification Police Unites to reduce violence in the favelas of the city and Hector Robles, major of the municipality of Zapopan who has implemented various innovative policies to give better opportunities to the youth in Mexico, including an initiative called Jovenes con Porvenir (Youth with a Bright Future). 

The conference will also bring together police chiefs from Brazil and the U.S. to share their experiences and insights on grassroots implementation of initiatives designed to reduce violence. General Commander of Operations, Coronel Paulo Henrique, from the military police of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Chief Eric Jones from Stockton, CA will be speaking on a panel titled, “’Pacification’ Strategies and Policing” on day two of the conference. Tony Farrar, chief of police for the city of Rialto, CA will be joined by Robert Chapman, deputy director of Community Policing Advancement and others to present on police accountability and gang violence in the U.S shortly thereafter.  

The conference will build upon a PovGov research project that is focused on the Brazilian military police in Rio de Janeiro. Targeting an important initiative in the city's favelas, the "Pacifying Police Units", the ongoing project investigates the use of lethal force by the police and reforms aimed at controlling violence.

A number of conference sessions will be led by CDDRL faculty members and affiliates, including: FSI Director Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar; Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow; FSI senior fellow and CDDRL affiliated faculty member Alberto Díaz-Cayeros; and former President of Peru and CDDRL Visiting Lecturer Alejandro Toledo. A conference report will be made available following the event.

Sessions will be held at Stanford University's Bechtel Conference room in Encina Hall on Monday, April 28 and the Alumni Center on Tuesday, April 29.  All sessions are free and open to the public. Please RSVP here to attend. A complete agenda can be found here.

For conference updates via Twitter please visit #PovGov

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Why have militarized interventions to curtail violence by drug cartels had wildly divergent results? In the past six years, state crackdowns drove a nine-fold increase in cartel-state violence in Mexico, versus a two-thirds decrease in Brazil. Prevailing analyses of drug wars as a criminal subtype of insurgency provide little traction, because they elide differences in rebels’ and cartels’ aims. Cartels, I argue, fight states not to conquer territory or political control, but to coerce state actors and influence policy outcomes. The empirically predominant channel is violent corruption— threatening enforcers while negotiating bribes. A formal model reveals that greater state repression raises bribe prices, leading cartels to fight back whenever (a) corruption is sufficiently rampant, and (b) repression is insufficiently conditional on cartels’ use of violence. Variation in conditionality helps explain observed outcomes: switching to conditional repression pushed Brazilian cartels into nonviolent strategies, while Mexico’s war “without distinctions” inadvertently made fighting advantageous.

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Andres Moreno is not just unearthing the genetic backgrounds of many Latin Americans and Caribbeans. He’s also making sense of the history of this region, and piecing together a clearer genetic medical history of understudied populations. By looking at the genetic history of Mexicans, Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Hondurans and Colombians, Moreno’s research unearths these populations’ ties to Europe, native tribes and Africans, and serves as a way to understand the waves of migration in these populations.

And he’s able to do much of this work because of the Dr. George Rozenkranz Prize for Health Care Research in Developing Countries, given out by the Center for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research (CHP/PCOR) to a promising young researcher.

“The Rosenkranz Prize is such a unique opportunity to promote the work of some of Stanford’s most promising young investigators,” CHP/PCOR Director Douglas K. Owens, also a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a professor of medicine, said. “We’ve had researchers from within our centers, and with Andres we have a Rosenkranz recipient who’s thinking about international health from a completely new angle for CHP/PCOR.”

The $100,000 prize is given to young Stanford researchers focusing on how to improve health care access in developing countries. The award’s namesake, George Rozankranz, first synthesized cortisone in 1951, and later progestin (the active ingredient in oral birth control pills). He went on to establish the Mexican National Institute for Genomic Medicine, and his family created the Rosenkranz Prize in 2009.

“The Rosenkranz Prize has allowed me to build research independence upon original ideas and collaborative efforts initiated in different regions throughout Latin America and the Pacific,” Moreno said. “These efforts are paving the way to conduct population and medical genomics research in populations from developing regions traditionally underrepresented in large-scale genetic projects.”

Moreno continued: “This is only the beginning though. There is much to do to bridge the gap between developed and developing countries in terms of biomedical research, so funding opportunities like the Rosenkranz Award are essential to tackle this problem.”

As part of this work, Moreno published article in PLOS Genetics in November 2013, with two more anticipated in 2014.

“In this publication we especially wanted to focus on people in the Caribbean,” Moreno said. “We felt that this region has been understudied in terms of genetic complexity, and wanted to know which part of Africa, Europe and a Native American tribal genes existed. And its implications for medicine.”

In understanding a person’s genetic history, a doctor can determine whether a patient has gene variants that correlate with a disease. For example, because Ashkenazi Jewish women have an increased likelihood of having breast and ovarian cancer, their health providers are more likely to monitor for these cancers. 

Moreno’s advisor and co-author on the PLOS papers, Stanford Genetics Professor Carlos Bustamente, described Moreno’s work on this project: “Andres was extraordinary in putting the data all together, developing algorithms and doing simulation work,” he said. Moreno would seek to understand the implications of their findings, think through how this would affect their design of the next round of experiments and  “translate it into future genetic studies and interpretation of genomes that come into the clinic.”

The findings also tell a historical story of the region. In the Caribbean, Moreno and his co-authors were able to pinpoint where in Africa particular segments of the population had come from and when they contributed to the genetic pool. The first wave of Africans came from the western tip of Africa (present day Senegal and Gambia), a region that was an original contributor for all African slaves. But another strand of African heritage also emerged in their studies—from Africa’s gold coast (Nigeria and the Gulf of Guinea). Moreno explained, “We can now genetically pinpoint when and where ancestry came from in Africa.”

Moreno said in looking at the populations, a major difference was between the genetic heritage of the island and mainland populations. In the case of the four islands, there were very consistent results of roughly the same date of European genes—about 500 years ago, which, Moreno pointed out, is exactly when colonization happened.

But in the mainland areas, Moreno and colleagues didn’t find European lines until two generations later, meaning Europeans first settled in the islands and then moved to the mainland.

Similarly, the Native American strands are distinct. Moreno and his co-authors believe that the Native American genes among the Caribbean populations are from inland Amazon tribes—a completely different Native American background than what’s typically found among Native American descendants in the United States.

Bustamente said Moreno has great breadth, commanding the whole operation—sampling in the field, collecting the data in the lab, doing the data scrubbing and analysis. Each of these tasks is typically undertaken by a different person. “He does all of this—and it gives him a real edge,” Bustamente said. “He thinks in a very integrated fashion. Plus he’s an MD!”

Kathryn McDonald, executive director for CHP/PCOR, said Moreno’s work represents the essence of the Rosenkranz Prize. “We really wanted this award to reach all angles of the Stanford health policy research community, and Andres embodies this. He’s expanding our understanding of health care and predisposition for diseases in a host of developing countries. It’s exciting—and such important—work.”

Teal Pennebaker is a freelance writer.

 

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Andres Moreno is studying the DNA of indigenous groups and cosmopolitan populations living in Mexico, South America and the Caribbean.
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The Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC) addresses critical challenges to international security through methodologically rigorous, evidence-based analyses of insurgency, civil war and other sources of politically motivated violence. The project is comprised of leading scholars from across the country from a variety of academic disciplines. ESOC aims to empower high quality of conflict analysis by creating and maintaining a repository of micro-level data across multiple conflict cases and making these data available to a broader community of scholars and policy analysts.

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Abstract:

Scholars of state development have paid insufficient attention to the question of regionalism; too often modeling state-building as the extension of the authority of a 'center' over peripheral territories, and too often linking regionalism to cultural or ethnic heterogeneity. A purely spatial account of the challenges to central control shows that even in the absence of cultural fractionalization, the presence of economically powerful and politically salient regions undermines political development. Three analytically distinct mechanisms - divergent public good preferences, economic self-sufficiency, and institutional design - underlie this relationship. I explore these issues through a region-wide analysis of Latin America, and case studies of the United States, Ecuador, Colombia, and early modern Poland.

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Hillel David Soifer earned his PhD in the Government Department at Harvard, and is currently Assistant Professor of Political Science at Temple University. His research has been centered in Latin America, with a focus on political development and state capacity, and has been published in journals including Latin American Research Review and Comparative Political Studies. He is currently completing a book on the long-term divergence in state capacity in Latin America which contrasts the cases of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.

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Hillel Soifer Assistant Professor of Political Science Speaker Temple University
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This paper estimates the effect that successful cocaine interdiction policies in Colombia have had on violence in Mexico. We propose a simple model of the war on drugs that captures the essence of our identification strategy: aggregate supply shocks affect the size of illegal drug markets, which then increases or decreases violence. We estimate the effect of the interaction of cocaine seizures in Colombia with simple geographic features of Mexican municipalities. Our results indicate that aggregate supply shocks originated in drug seizures in Colombia affect homicides in Mexico. The effects are especially large for violence generated by clashes between drug cartels. Our estimates also show that government crackdowns on drug cartels might not be the only explanation behind the rise of illegal drug trafficking and violence observed in the last six years in Mexico: successful interdiction policies implemented in Colombia since 2006 have also played a major role in the worsening of the Mexican situationduring Calderon's sexennium.

 

Speaker Bio:

Daniel Mejia is Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) at Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia, where he has taught since 2006. He received a BA and MA in Economics from Universidad de los Andes and a MA and PhD in economics from Brown University. Prior to joining Universidad de los Andes he worked as a researcher at the Central Bank of Colombia and Fedesarrollo. Daniel he has been actively involved in a research agenda whose main objective is to provide an independent, economic evaluation of anti-drug policies implemented under Plan Colombia. His academic work has been published at the Journal of Development Economics, the European Journal of Political Economy, Economics of Governance and Economia: Journal of the Latin America Economic Association. In 2008 he was awarded Fedesarrollos´s German Botero de los Ríos prize for economic research. Also, in 2008, 2010 and 2012 he was awarded with research grants from the Open Society Institute for the study of anti-drug policies in Colombia. Daniel, together with Alejandro Gaviria, recently published the book “Políticas antidroga en Colombia: éxitos, fracasos y extravíos” (Anti-drug policies in Colombia: successes, failures and lost opportunities) at Universidad de los Andes, in Bogota. Between 2011 and 2012, Daniel was a member of the Advisory Commission on Criminal Policy and more recently he is the Chair of the Colombian Government´s Advisory Commission on Drugs Policy.

 

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Daniel Mejia Londoño Associate Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of the Research Center on Drugs and Security (CESED) Speaker Universidad de los Andes in Bogota, Colombia
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Why have militarized interventions to curtail violence by drug cartels had wildly divergent results? In the past six years, state crackdowns drove a nine-fold increase in cartel-state violence in Mexico, versus a two-thirds decrease in Brazil. Prevailing analyses of drug wars as a criminal subtype of insurgency provide little traction, because they elide differences in rebels’ and cartels’ aims. Cartels, I argue, fight states not to conquer territory or political control, but to coerce state actors and influence policy outcomes. The empirically predominant channel is violent corruption—threatening enforcers while negotiating bribes. A formal model reveals that greater state repression raises bribe prices, leading cartels to fight back whenever (a) corruption is sufficiently rampant, and (b) repression is insufficiently conditional on cartels’ use of violence. Variation in conditionality helps explain observed outcomes: switching to conditional repression pushed Brazilian cartels into nonviolent strategies, while Mexico’s war “without distinctions” inadvertently made fighting advantageous.

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Many resource dependent states have to varying degrees, failed to provide for the welfare of their own populations, could threaten global energy markets, and could pose security risks for the United States and other countries.  Many are in Africa, but also Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan), Southeast Asia (Cambodia, Burma, East Timor), and South America (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador) Some have only recently become – or are about to become – significant resource exporters.  Many have histories of conflict and poor governance.  The recent boom and decline in commodity prices – the largest price shock since the 1970s – will almost certainly cause them special difficulties.  The growing role of India and China, as commodity importers and investors, makes the policy landscape even more challenging.

We believe there is much the new administration can learn from both academic research, and recent global initiatives, about how to address the challenge of poorly governed states that are dependent on oil, gas, and mineral exports.  Over the last eight years there has been a wealth of new research on the special problems that resource dependence can cause in low-income countries – including violent conflict, authoritarian rule, economic volatility, and disappointing growth.  The better we understand the causes of these problems, the more we can learn about how to mitigate them.

There has also been a new set of policy initiatives to address these issues: the Kimberley Process, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, the World Bank’s new “EITI plus plus,” Norway’s Oil for Development initiative, and the incipient Resource Charter.  NGOs have played an important role in most of these initiatives; key players include Global Witness, the Publish What You Pay campaign, the Revenue Watch Institute, Oxfam America, and an extensive network of civil society organizations in the resource-rich countries themselves.

Some of these initiatives have been remarkably successful.  The campaign against ‘blood diamonds,’ through the Kimberley Process, has reduced the trade in illicit diamonds to a fraction of its former level, and may have helped curtail conflicts in Angola, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.  Many other initiatives are so new they have not been have not been carefully evaluated.

This workshop is designed to bring together people in the academic and policy worlds to identify lessons from this research, and from these policy initiatives, that can inform US policy towards resource-dependent poorly states in the new administration.

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Access to life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical treatments is a nagging problem for millions of Latin Americans. In several countries of the region, judicial actions for the protection of basic rights have proved to be instrumental for gaining access to such goods. Brazil and Colombia are, allegedly, the two Latin American countries with the largest number of right to health cases. Everaldo Lamprea suggests that dismantling right to health litigation in order to reduce public costs--as was recently proposed by the Colombian government-- would be a catastrophic event for many Colombians, trapped in a heavily privatized and deregulated health system where many life-saving pharmaceuticals and medical treatments are out of the reach of most pockets. Lamprea will suggest that a more reasonable governmental reaction should include an analysis of the role played in the current health-sector crisis by global actors such as International Financial Institutions and BigPharma companies

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Why have militarized crackdowns on drug cartels had wildly divergent outcomes, sometimes exacerbating cartel-state conflict, as in Mexico and, for decades, in Brazil, but sometimes reducing violence, as with Rio de Janeiro's new 'Pacification' (UPP) strategy?  CDDRL-CISAC Post Doctoral Fellow Benjamin Lessing will distinguish key logics of violence, focusing on violent corruption--cartels' use of coercive force in the negotiation of bribes. Through this channel, crackdowns can lead to increased fighting unless the intensity of state repression is made conditional on cartels' use of violence--a key difference between Mexico and Brazil.

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