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Levitsky received his doctoral degree from UC-Berkeley. His areas of research include political parties and party change, informal institutions and organizations, and political regimes and regime change. His primary regional interest is Latin America, with a particular focus on Argentina and Peru. He is author of Transforming Labor-Based Parties in Latin America: Argentine Peronism in Comparative Perspective (Cambridge University Press, 2003). He is currently writing a book on the rise of competitive authoritarian regimes in Latin America, Africa, Asia, East-Central Europe, and the former Soviet Union during the post-Cold War era. He is also co-editing a book (with Gretchen Helmke) on informal institutions in Latin America.

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Steve Levitsky Speaker Harvard University
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David G. Victor
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The world's energy system seems to have come unhinged. Oil is trading at record high prices because demand keeps rising even as supplies become unreliable. Oil exporters from Iran to Russia and Venezuela are using their petrocash to pursue agendas that undercut western security and interests. Supplies of natural gas also seem less secure than ever.

The world's energy system seems to have come unhinged. Oil is trading at record high prices because demand keeps rising even as supplies become unreliable. Oil exporters from Iran to Russia and Venezuela are using their petrocash to pursue agendas that undercut western security and interests. Supplies of natural gas also seem less secure than ever.

The root cause of these troubles is dysfunctional energy politics. The countries with the strongest incentives to cut their vulnerability to volatile energy markets - notably America - are unable to act because influential politicians view all serious policies as politically radioactive. Efforts to boost supply have little leverage because the most attractive geological riches are found mainly in countries where state-owned companies control the resources and outsiders have little clout. Thus, the current energy debates are generating a volcano of proposals that have no positive impact on tight markets.

Yet these structural barriers to serious policy remain hidden because the debate labours under the meaningless umbrella of "energy security". Proper policy on oil and gas must start with the distinct uses for these fuels - each requiring its own political strategy.

The effort on oil must focus on transportation. Vehicles and aircraft work best with liquid fuels that can store large quantities of energy in a compact space and flow easily through pipes to engines. Searching for a better substitute is worthwhile, but the effort faces an uphill battle. With today's technologies, no other energy liquid can reliably beat petroleum. Liquids can be made from coal, as South Africa and China are doing. But that approach is costly and has unattractive environmental implications. Brazil and the US have focused on ethanol, which they distill from sugar or grain from crops. However, those programmes, which account for less than 0.5 per cent of the world's energy liquids, have a negligible impact on the oil market. Yet, America is redoubling its ethanol effort because it is politically unbeatable to reward corn growers and grain handlers who are a formidable force in US politics. Indeed, requirements for ethanol in America have created a more rigid fuel supply system that actually raises the price of oil products, although ethanol's backers originally claimed they would cut energy costs. That same political force also blocks imports of cheaper Brazilian ethanol. In principle, a better approach is so-called "cellulosic ethanol", which promises lower costs as it converts whole plants into ethanol rather than just the grain. But like most messiahs, its attraction lies in the future. So far, nobody has made the system work at the scale of a commercial refinery.

The best way to temper oil demand today is by lifting efficiency. Even this economic winner is politically difficult to implement. The US, which consumes one-quarter of the world's oil, has not changed fuel efficiency standards for new cars in 16 years. Every big economy - even China's - has stricter fuel economy rules than America's. Political gridlock has stymied even modest proposals to allow trading of efficiency credits. A trading scheme is politically inconvenient as it could force US carmakers (which make generally inefficient cars) to buy valuable credits from foreign brands. No politican wants to multiply Detroit's problems.

Even better ideas - such as a stiffer petrol tax - stay stuck on opinion pages of newspapers and in academic journals. Despite what is increasingly termed today's "energy crisis", these ideas barely cross the lips of politicians who want to remain viable among the thicket of anti-tax conservatives and pro-Detroit lobbyists.

The approaches needed for natural gas are quite different. In western Europe, which has long depended on imported gas from Russia, Algeria and a few smaller suppliers, the vulnerabilities are particularly stark. In principle, though, gas dependencies are easier to manage than oil because gas has rivals for each of its major uses. In electric power generation, countries must preserve diversity - ensuring, for example, that advanced coal and nuclear technologies remain viable. While "diversity" is motherhood in energy policy, in reality it requires difficult choices. In continental Europe, for example, policy-­makers have not seriously confronted the conflict between the need for diversity while, at the same time, opening the power sector to morecompetition. Historically, companies in competitive power markets have invested heavily in gas because gas plants are smaller and require less capital than coal or nuclear plants.

Gas suppliers who dream of extending their powers forget that it is harder to corner gas markets when users have a choice. Algeria learnt that lesson in 1981 when it left a key pipeline empty in a pricing dispute with Italy - extracting a better price at the time but losing billions of dollars for the future by destroying its reputation as a reliable supplier.

That lesson should be sobering for Russia today. In December, Gazprom, Russia's giant state gas company, cut deliveries to Ukraine, which then siphoned supplies that flow on to Europe. The company rattled its pipes again last month - threatening retaliation if Europe dared try to wean itself from Russia's gas. While Gazprom's management must pander to Russian nationalism (where pipe-rattling is welcome), the company's long-term viability rests on its reliability as a supplier to lucrative west European markets. Similarly, the recent decision by Evo Morales, Bolivia's president, to nationalise his country's gas fields will give him a boost domestically and might generate some instant extra revenue, but it will also encourage his customers in Brazil and Argentina to look elsewhere for energy.

"Resource nationalism" is back in vogue. But for gas suppliers in particular, it usually ends badly - not least because the infrastructure is costly to build and buyers can afford to be choosy. Gas users can further subdue Russia's rattling by multiplying sources of supply. A robust market for liquefied natural gas will help.

The tendency for gridlock in energy politics means that policymakers must focus where tough decisions matter most, such as efficiency in the use of oil and diversity in the application of gas. Yet, prospects for serious policy are poor - not least because the US, which should be a leader, is the most hamstrung. Luckily, the markets are responding on their own - albeit slowly and patchily. Costly oil is encouraging conservation and new supplies; LNG is accelerating, and gas buyers are more wary of Russian gas than they were a decade ago when Russia was seen as a reliable supplier. If the political structure remains dysfunctional on matters of energy, then the best second is perhaps no policy at all.

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Since 2004, Dominic Martin has been Counsellor at the British Embassy Washington, responsible for Political and Public Affairs. Mr. Martin was educated at Oriel College, Oxford and joined the British Diplomatic Service in 1987. He has twice served in New Delhi, India (at the end of the 1980s and from 2001 until 2004), and also served in Buenos Aires, Argentina during the mid-1990s. Prior to this last posting in India, Mr. Martin co-coordinated the UK position in the negotiations on the enlargement of the European Union to include the countries from Central and Eastern Europe.

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Dominic Martin Counsellor Speaker the British Embassy Washington
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This report examines the connections, if any, between efforts to enhance development through electrification of the world's poorest households with the parallel efforts to introduce market forces in the power sector. Advocates for equitable economic development have rightly signaled many concerns about the process of electricity reform. Their fears range from the higher prices that often accompany reform to the concern that private firms motivated for profits will not have an incentive to provide public services. Some of these fears have been articulated by implying the existence of a "golden era" when state owned firms dominated the power sector and provided energy services equitably across societies; in fact, that golden era never existed in most countries. Public utilities traditionally have been highly politicized; in many countries they have concentrated their services on urban elites and often neglected the poorest populations.

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UNDESA
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David G. Victor
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The Brazilian energy sector reform followed a textbook model from early 1990s Latin America - specifically Chile and Argentina - premised on introducing competition to the wholesale power market while maintaining monopolies in transmission and distribution. The textbook electricity reform model also established an independent system operator and independent regulator to oversee system management. Brazil began its power sector reform by privatizing distribution, followed by generation and transmission. And because the drought and successive power rationing of 2001-02, the Brazilian power market is being reformed again. The wholesale market will be ruled by long term contracts and new institutions are being developed to coordinate the sector. In this contract environment, IPPs stand out less than in countries with a single buyer model (e.g. South East Asia, Mexico).

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #53
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Erik Woodhouse
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Discussions of trade in natural gas in South America's Southern Cone (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) began as early as the 1950s. But it was not until 1972 that the first international gas pipeline in the region, linking Bolivia and Argentina, was built. It was twenty years later before significant gas pipeline projects integrating Chile and Argentina were proposed, followed by one large project connecting Bolivia and Brazil.

This paper examines three historical cases to understand why there was a 25 year lag between the first international pipeline project and the others, and to uncover key factors that determine why particular pipeline projects were built while similar proposed pipelines languished.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #29
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Starting in the late 1980s many nations began to reform their electric power markets away from state-dominated systems to those with a greater role for market forces. In developing countries, especially, these reforms have proved challenging. Successful reform requires a complex set of institutions and complementary reforms, such as in public finance and corporate governance. State-dominated systems typically create their own powerful constituencies that block or redirect the reform process. In an earlier detailed study of reform in five key developing countries, the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) found that the result of these pressures, in most cases, is a “hybrid” outcome—an electric power system that is partly reformed and partly dominated by the state 2. Almost always the first step in hybrid reform is the encouragement of private investors to build independent power projects (IPPs)—generators that are hooked to the main power system and, typically, supply electricity according to long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs).

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #23
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David G. Victor
Thomas C. Heller
Joshua C. House
Pei Yee Woo

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Ale Núñez was a Research Fellow at the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. At PESD, her research focused on foreign investment in independent power projects in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Her academic interests include privatization and regulation of water and electricity infrastructure in Latin American countries, as well as economic history, sociology and legal theory.

Ale holds a Master of Laws (LL.M, 2003) from Harvard University, where she was research assistant to Duncan Kennedy, Carter Professor of General Jurisprudence. She graduated with honors from ITAM (LL.B, 2001), after having been research assistant to the Dean of the Law School, Dr. José Ramón Cossío Díaz, now an Associate Justice at the Mexican Supreme Court. She also worked in the litigation department of Morrison & Foerster LLP in Palo Alto, California, on patent infringement claims and political asylum cases, and was an active member of the firmwide Latin America Practice Group on Finance and Infrastructure.

In her spare time, Ale directs travel videos featuring Mexico, her native country. Her work is available at public libraries and retail stores throughout the US, and at www.alexandratravel.com.

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