From the November 2013 public protests in Kiev to Russia’s military intervention in Crimea, FSI scholars have been monitoring developments throughout the region. Since stepping down last month as Washington’s ambassador to Moscow, Michael McFaul has returned to Stanford where he continues to analyze the unfolding crisis. Follow McFaul, Kathryn Stoner, Norman Naimark and Gail Lapidus as the FSI senior fellows share their expertise and insights into the situation.

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Article: In a New York Times op-ed, Michael McFaul writes that Ukraine "must succeed as a democracy," and Russia's "current regime must be isolated." (March 24, 2014)

 

Article: Michael McFaul says no U.S. president has ever succeeded in deterring Soviet military intervention in Eastern Europe over the last 70 years.  (March 20, 2014)

 

Audio: Michael McFaul discusses sanctions on Russia following Crimea vote for secession. (March 17, 2014)

 

Article: Stephen Krasner on why the United States has "no good options with regard to Crimea." (March 14, 2014)

 

Article: Michael McFaul says diplomatic pressure unlikely to sway Russia. (March 7, 2014)

 

Article: Kathryn Stoner argues that America and Europe should clearly articulate what Ukraine means to the West and consider some economic sanctions. (March 4, 2014)

 

Video: Michael McFaul calls Putin’s latest remarks “ominous” in NBC interview. (March 4, 2014) 

 

Audio: Michael McFaul joins KQED’s Forum to discuss Russia's military intervention in Ukraine and what the U.S. should do in response. (March 4, 2014)

 

Article: Kathryn Stoner tells Reuters that Russia’s claim of attacks on ethnic Russians in Crimea is “a lie.” (March 4, 2014)

 

Audio: Gail Lapidus joins the BBC to discuss Putin's political and military strategy. (March 4, 2014; Interview begins at 6:14)

 

Video: Michael McFaul discusses the volatile political situation in Ukraine and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comments that Putin is out of touch with reality on MSNBC. (March 3, 2014)

 

Article: In a piece for Foreign Affairs, Kathryn Stoner discusses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a show of force by Russian President Vladimir Putin to re-establish the country as a superpower. (March 2, 2014)

 

Article: Norman Naimark argues that the Ukrainian crisis reflects a deep desire among many people in that country for a more democratic, pro-Western government and economy. (Feb. 26, 2014)

 

Audio: In an interview on KQED’s Forum, Kathryn Stoner analyzes the political turmoil surrounding President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an economic agreement with the European Union. (Dec. 11, 2013)

In a piece for Foreign Affairs, FSI Senior Fellow Kathryn Stoner discusses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a show of force by Russian President Vladimir Putin to re-establish the country as a superpower for a domestic and international audience. Stoner argues that there is little the West can do about the annex of Crimea without risking a third World War.

When some 140 Stanford students and faculty recently gathered to simulate an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, they had some real-world data that had never been used before: satellite images of Iran’s Arak nuclear facility.

Students at the two-day simulation for CISAC’s signature class, “International Security in a Changing World,” were given this hypothetical allegation: Iran has violated the conditions of the November 2013 deal on its nuclear program by moving material between its nuclear facilities.

As the students were debating how to handle the allegation – purposely injected into the simulation in the form of a leak to heighten tensions – mock representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency provided the delegations with satellite images that indicated no movement at the nuclear facility in question.

While the emergency was phony, the premise was very real. As were many of the documents, reports and satellite images used by the students and faculty to craft their stands and trip up their opponents as they played out their roles.

Skybox Imaging, a 5-year-old Silicon Valley firm started by four Stanford grads, provided the satellite images taken just days before the simulation in early February. The co-founders of Skybox established the information and analytics firm in 2009 using a business plan they developed as students in the class, “Technology Venture Formation.”

One of those co-founders, Dan Berkenstock, had also taken “International Security in a Changing World” as well as another popular class, “Technology and National Security,” co-taught by CISAC faculty member and former Secretary of Defense William Perry and Senior Fellow Siegfried Hecker.

Berkenstock, who was working on his Ph.D. in aeronautics and astronautics, became fascinated by ways technology might aid international security.

“The class became a major inspiration in starting Skybox,” Berkenstock said. “I was interested in satellites and the kind of data that they could create on the technical side, but I was really interested in much more of the analyses of those images and the stories that were locked within them.”

He said he realized that they could take the value of satellite imagery and “help people make better and safer decisions.”

Skybox, based in Mountain View, designed, built and then launched its first satellite, SkySat-1, from Russia last November. Two more satellites are scheduled to launch later this year; another six next year. The firm intends to eventually have 24 satellites in orbit to see any spot on earth multiple times a day. They also have produced the first high-resolution video from space.

“It’s about being able to monitor the ebb and flow of natural resources, the production of commodities, the activities of new construction and damage to old infrastructure and transportation,” Berkenstock said. “All those things, they define not just security; they really define our global economy. How many cars were there in the Walmart parking lot before the storm? How many tanks were there in a military base in Syria?” 

Students were given two images that showed Iran's Arak nuclear facility on two different dates.

Students were given two images that showed Iran's Arak nuclear facility on two different dates. Photo Credit: Skybox Imaging

 

CISAC co-director, Amy Zegart, who co-teaches “International Security in a Changing World” with CISAC’s terrorism expert, Martha Crenshaw, said the Skybox images injected a dose of reality to the simulation.

“Students could see up close and personal just what satellite imagery of one of Iran's nuclear facilities looks like, what it shows, what it can't, what questions it raises,” she said. “Typically, students in international security classes see grainy satellite images from the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. It's important history, but it's distant. Skybox gave us fresh images from Iran's Arak reactor. The imagery was real, important, immediate, and cool.”

Zegart, one of the country’s leading intelligence experts, said Skybox is at the forefront of a “tectonic shift in intelligence.”

“It used to be that all the most important sources and methods of detecting threats like nuclear weapons programs rested in the hands of governments,” she said. “Not anymore. Enterprising companies, NGOs, and even individuals are producing and assessing information like never before – using commercial satellite images, smart phones, Google, you name it.”

Policymakers don’t control information like they used to, Zegart said. They have to find creative ways to harness new tools to understand security threats.

“Real world leaders are grappling with this new information universe, and we wanted Stanford students to grapple with it, too,” she said.

Keshav Dimri, a CISAC honors student who played the role of the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, said the students did indeed grapple with the rapidly changing data they were given during the simulation.

“The use of satellite images was definitely a challenge because it forced us to back up our political rhetoric with technical data,” said Dimri, a history major. “The use of satellite imagery required many of us to leave our political science comfort zones and examine, analyze and quickly react to new data – the sort of spontaneous thinking we might need in a real negotiation.”

In the end, Dimri persuaded the class the allegations about movement at Iran’s nuclear plant were unfounded. While not resolving all of the outstanding historical issues, the students passed a resolution that allowed Tehran and the rest of the world to move forward.

Stanford Law School Professor Allen Weiner plays the UN Secretary-General.

Stanford Law School Professor Allen Weiner plays the UN Secretary-General. Photo Credit: Rod Searcey

CISAC and FSI Senior Fellow Siegfried Hecker has been awarded the prestigious Science Diplomacy Award from the American Association for the Advancement of Science for his dedication to building bridges through science.

Hecker, director emeritus of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and CISAC co-director from 2007-2012, was honored at the AAAS’s annual conference in Chicago for his “lifetime commitment to using the tools of science to address the challenges of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism and his dedication to building bridges through science during the period following the end of the Cold War."

In nominating Hecker for the 2013 award, Glenn E. Schweitzer, director of the Office for Central Europe and Eurasia at the National Academies, noted that Hecker has been particularly effective in working with government officials and scientific colleagues in Russia, Kazakhstan and North Korea.

"For over two decades, Dr. Hecker has worked on international nuclear security activities and fostered cooperation with the Russian nuclear laboratories to secure and safeguard the vast stockpile of ex-Soviet fissile materials," said AAAS Chief International Officer Vaughan Turekian.

Schweitzer wrote in his nomination that Hecker's activities can be judged on two outcomes: responsible handling of nuclear materials and prevention of dangerous materials from falling into the wrong hands. "On both counts, he scores very high on anyone's ledger," Schweitzer wrote. "In addition, his openness and respect for the views of others have won important friends for the United States around the world."

More details about the award and Hecker's work can be read here.

Please join CISAC in congratulating Hecker for this honor.

When Michael McFaul steps down from his post as Washington’s ambassador to Moscow later this month, he will return to Stanford where he is a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and a former director of the institute’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL).

Announcing his decision this week to leave Russia following the Winter Olympics, McFaul wrote on his blog that "it is time to come home."

"We are immensely proud of the service Michael McFaul has rendered in these past five years of steering U.S. policy toward Russia, first at the National Security Council and then for the past two years as U.S. Ambassador to Russia," said CDDRL Director Larry Diamond. "During this time, he has navigated skillfully through some of the toughest challenges in U.S. foreign policy, showing that it is possible for the United States to advance its strategic interests while also standing up for its values of freedom, democracy and an open society."  

At Stanford, McFaul will resume his academic activities as a professor in the department of political science, a resident faculty member at CDDRL and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

"Ambassador McFaul's return is a sterling opportunity for Stanford and FSI," said FSI Director Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. "His unique experience as a diplomat and a leading scholar are enormous assets to our centers and educational programs, and to the entire university."

McFaul has worked in the Obama administration for the past five years, and was tapped as ambassador in 2011. He arrived in Russia with the mandate to reset relations with Moscow, which proved to be challenging in a political climate marked by increasing tensions between the two countries. From the ban on U.S. adoptions to the Edward Snowden affair, McFaul faced many setbacks as he embarked on his political mandate.

Nevertheless, McFaul leaves Moscow citing major gains in improving trade and tourism between the two countries, having worked to secure Russia's membership to the World Trade Organization and a new visa regime. He was also integral to negotiating the historic agreement with Russia to eliminate Syrian chemical weapons.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry praised McFaul's service in a statement released by the U.S. State Department, "From the New START Treaty to securing Russian cooperation on Iran’s nuclear program, to resupplying our troops in Afghanistan and expanding our trade, there’s scarcely an issue in our bilateral agenda that didn’t benefit from Mike’s steady hand and good old fashioned willpower."

Kerry continued to commend McFaul's deep commitment and engagement with Russian civil society on human rights and the independent media, which often invoked tension with the Russian government.

McFaul was a trailblazer in public diplomacy, using the social media platforms Twitter and Facebook to connect to audiences in Russia and beyond. In his blog, McFaul admits to never having sent a tweet before his time as ambassador but now reaches over 60,000 followers through his Twitter account.

"He grasped the importance of social media in an information age, but he also grasped a much more essential truth: that all people everywhere should be able to express themselves and, ultimately, determine how they are governed," said Kerry. "That’s an enduring conviction, and Mike leaves behind an enduring legacy."