-

This event is expected to be at full capacity. Seating is available on a first-come basis.

Join us for a book talk and signing with Professor Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, New York Times bestselling author, and former U.S. ambassador to Russia. 

Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder is a clear-eyed look at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail. 

Cover of Autocrats vs Democrats Book

Amid the constant party divisions in Washington, DC, one issue generates stunning consensus—China—with Republicans and Democrats alike battling over which party can take the most hawkish stance toward the ascendant superpower. Indeed, far from trying to avoid a new Cold War with China, many have embraced it, finding comfort in the familiar construct, almost willing it into existence. And yet, even as politicians and intellectuals race to embrace this Cold War 2.0, many of the perils we face today are distinctly different from those of the Cold War with the Soviets. The alliance between the autocracies of China and Russia, the nature of the ideological struggle, China’s economic might, the rise of the far right in the United States and in Europe, and the growing isolationism and polarization in American society—taken together these represent new challenges for the democratic world. Some elements of the Cold War have reappeared today, but many features of the current great power competition have no analogy from the past century.

For decades Michael McFaul, former ambassador to Russia and international affairs analyst for NBC News, has been one of the preeminent thinkers about American foreign policy. Now, in this provocative work, he challenges the encroaching orthodoxy on Russia and China, arguing persuasively that the way forward is not to force our current conflict into a decades-old paradigm but to learn from our Cold War past so that democracy can again emerge victorious. Examining America’s layered, modern history with both Russia and China, he demonstrates that, instead of simplistically framing our competition with China and Russia as a second Cold War, we must understand the unique military, economic, and ideological challenges that come from China and Russia today, and the develop innovative policies that follow from that analysis, not just a return to the Cold War playbook.

At once a clarion call for American foreign policy and a forceful rebuttal of the creeping Washington consensus around China, Autocrats vs. Democrats demonstrates that the key to prevailing in this new era isn’t simply defeating our enemies through might, but using their oppressive regimes against them—to remind the world of the power and potential that our democratic freedoms make possible. 

Michael McFaul headshot

Professor Michael McFaul

FSI Director
"Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global" is available starting October 28, 2025.
Order Now

Hauck Auditorium, Traitel Building, 435 Lasuen Mall, Stanford, CA 94305

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

0
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies, Department of Political Science
Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
mcfaul_headshot_2025.jpg PhD

Michael McFaul is the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies in Political Science, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. He joined the Stanford faculty in 1995 and served as FSI Director from 2015 to 2025. He is also an international affairs analyst for MSNOW.

McFaul served for five years in the Obama administration, first as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council at the White House (2009-2012), and then as U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation (2012-2014).

McFaul has authored ten books and edited several others, including, most recently, Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder, as well as From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia, (a New York Times bestseller) Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should, How We Can; and Russia’s Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin.

He is a recipient of numerous awards, including an honorary PhD from Montana State University; the Order for Merits to Lithuania from President Gitanas Nausea of Lithuania; Order of Merit of Third Degree from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, and the Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching at Stanford University. In 2015, he was the Distinguished Mingde Faculty Fellow at the Stanford Center at Peking University.

McFaul was born and raised in Montana. He received his B.A. in International Relations and Slavic Languages and his M.A. in Soviet and East European Studies from Stanford University in 1986. As a Rhodes Scholar, he completed his D. Phil. in International Relations at Oxford University in 1991. 

CV
Date Label
Michael McFaul
Lectures
Date Label
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Three of SPICE’s online programs for U.S. high school students have begun accepting applications for the spring 2026 academic term. The Reischauer Scholars Program (RSP) and the Sejong Korea Scholars Program (SKSP) welcome applications from high school sophomores, juniors, and seniors in the United States. U.S.–China Co-Lab on Climate Solutions brings together 10th–12th graders from the United States and China in the same program to collaborate on solutions to the global climate crisis.

The RSP engages students in an intensive study of Japan and the U.S.–Japan relationship, facilitating discussions with scholars, diplomats, and other guest speakers with personal and professional expertise in Japanese culture, society, and U.S.–Japan relations. The 2026 RSP course dates are February 1 to June 14. The application deadline is October 17, 2025.

The SKSP provides students an enriching and academically rigorous overview of Korean history and U.S.–Korea relations through online lectures with top scholars and experts and engaging student discussions. The 2026 SKSP course will run February through early June. The application deadline is November 1, 2025.

The U.S.–China Co-Lab program focuses specifically on climate-related issues and U.S.–China cooperation, past and potential, and strategies for global cooperation. High school students from the U.S. and China will get to know each other’s lives and environments and actively work together on projects to develop their expertise on local, bilateral, and global climate action. This is a joint program of SPICE’s Stanford e-China (for students in China) and China Scholars Program (for U.S. students). The spring 2026 Co-Lab course dates are February 27 to May 22. The application deadline for U.S. students is November 1, 2025.

Students who are interested in applying to more than one program may do so and rank their preferences on their applications. Those who are accepted into multiple programs for spring 2026 will be invited to enroll in their highest-preference course.

Applications for all three programs can be found at https://spicestanford.smapply.io/. Deadlines vary:


For more information on a specific online course, please refer to its individual webpage.

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram.

To learn more about SPICE’s student programs, visit our Student Programs page.

Read More

people gathering outside in front of palm trees
Blogs

Japan Day 2025: Recognizing the Highest Performing Students in Stanford e-Japan and the Reischauer Scholars Program

SPICE instructors Waka Takahashi Brown, Naomi Funahashi, and Meiko Kotani recognize their student honorees.
Japan Day 2025: Recognizing the Highest Performing Students in Stanford e-Japan and the Reischauer Scholars Program
person standing in the street at night
Blogs

The Endurance of History: A Reflection on the Importance of the Sejong Korea Scholars Program

The following reflection is a guest post written by Eloisa Lin, an alumna of the Sejong Scholars Program.
The Endurance of History: A Reflection on the Importance of the Sejong Korea Scholars Program
Hero Image
a fountain and two palm trees in front of a building
Old Union in the evening light
Photo Credit: Andrew Brodhead
All News button
1
Subtitle

Students with a strong interest in East Asia or international relations are encouraged to apply.

Date Label
-
DAL Launch Event

Two decades after the close of the Third Wave of democratization, scholars and practitioners alike continue to grapple with the question of why some democracies erode while others endure. To advance this critical inquiry, Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) is launching the Democracy Action Lab (DAL), a new initiative devoted to rigorous, comparative, and conceptually grounded research on the conditions of democratic backsliding and resilience. DAL will provide an academic home for refining definitions, testing theories, and generating knowledge that informs both scholarly debates and practical responses to the challenges facing democracy worldwide.

The launch will feature a roundtable, “Global Challenges & Responses to Democratic Erosion” with leading voices in the field — Kathryn Stoner, Beatriz Magaloni, Anna Grzymala-Busse, and Didi Kuo — moderated by María Ignacia Curiel. Panelists will reflect on conceptual clarity and contestation around “backsliding,” its relationship to fragile statehood, populism, and authoritarian resilience, and the mechanisms through which institutions weaken or recover. Drawing on comparative cases across Latin America, Europe, and beyond, the discussion will also chart new directions for research: refining metrics, mapping mechanisms of erosion, and theorizing pathways of democratic renewal. The event marks DAL’s commitment to placing cutting-edge academic work at the center of global conversations about democracy’s future.

Following the panel, attendees are invited to a celebratory reception.

SPEAKERS:

  • Anna Grzymala-Busse
  • Didi Kuo
  • Beatriz Magaloni
  • Kathryn Stoner
     

MODERATOR: María Ignacia Curiel

About the Speakers

Anna Grzymala-Busse

Anna Grzymala-Busse

Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, Professor of Political Science; Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director of The Europe Center
Link to bio

Anna Grzymała-Busse is a professor in the Department of Political Science, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the director of The Europe Center. Her research interests include political parties, state development and transformation, informal political institutions, religion and politics, and post-communist politics. Anna's most recent book, Sacred Foundations: The Religious and Medieval Roots of the European State argues that the medieval church was a fundamental force in European state formation.

Didi Kuo

Didi Kuo

Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Link to bio

Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press, forthcoming) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

Beatriz Magaloni

Beatriz Magaloni

Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, School of Humanities and Sciences; Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Director, Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab
Link to bio

Beatriz Magaloni is the Graham Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science. Magaloni is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where she holds affiliations with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). She is also a faculty affiliate at Stanford’s King Center for Global Development. Magaloni has taught at Stanford University for over two decades.

She leads the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (PovGov). Founded by Magaloni in 2010, PovGov is one of Stanford University’s leading impact-driven knowledge production laboratories in the social sciences. Under her leadership, PovGov has innovated and advanced a host of cutting-edge research agendas aimed at reducing violence and poverty and promoting peace, security, and human rights.

Kathryn Stoner

Kathryn Stoner

Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law; Senior Fellow; Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Link to bio

Kathryn Stoner is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), and a Senior Fellow at CDDRL and the Center on International Security and Cooperation at FSI. From 2017 to 2021, she served as FSI's Deputy Director. She is Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford and she teaches in the Department of Political Science, and in the Program on International Relations, as well as in the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy Program. She is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at the Hoover Institution.

Maria Curiel

Maria Ignacia Curiel

Research Scholar, CDDRL; Research Affiliate, Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab
Link to bio

María Ignacia Curiel is a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University. Curiel is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of violence and democratic participation, peacebuilding, and representation.

Her research primarily explores political solutions to violent conflict and the electoral participation of parties with violent origins. This work includes an in-depth empirical study of Comunes, the Colombian political party formed by the former FARC guerrilla, as well as a broader analysis of rebel party behaviors across different contexts. More recently, her research has focused on democratic mobilization and the political representation of groups affected by violence in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.

María Ignacia Curiel
María Ignacia Curiel

Panel: William J. Perry Conference Room, Encina Hall 2nd Floor 
Reception: Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab, Encina Hall Garden Level S051

Virtual to Public. If prompted for a password, use: 123456
Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to the William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. Registration is required.

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA  94305

 

(650) 723-4270
0
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies
Professor of Political Science
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
anna_gb_4_2022.jpg

Anna Grzymała-Busse is a professor in the Department of Political Science, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the director of The Europe Center. Her research interests include political parties, state development and transformation, informal political institutions, religion and politics, and post-communist politics.

In her first book, Redeeming the Communist Past, she examined the paradox of the communist successor parties in East Central Europe: incompetent as authoritarian rulers of the communist party-state, several then succeeded as democratic competitors after the collapse of these communist regimes in 1989.

Rebuilding Leviathan, her second book project, investigated the role of political parties and party competition in the reconstruction of the post-communist state. Unless checked by a robust competition, democratic governing parties simultaneously rebuilt the state and ensured their own survival by building in enormous discretion into new state institutions.

Anna's third book, Nations Under God, examines why some churches have been able to wield enormous policy influence. Others have failed to do so, even in very religious countries. Where religious and national identities have historically fused, churches gained great moral authority, and subsequently covert and direct access to state institutions. It was this institutional access, rather than either partisan coalitions or electoral mobilization, that allowed some churches to become so powerful.

Anna's most recent book, Sacred Foundations: The Religious and Medieval Roots of the European State argues that the medieval church was a fundamental force in European state formation.

Other areas of interest include informal institutions, the impact of European Union membership on politics in newer member countries, and the role of temporality and causal mechanisms in social science explanations.

Director of The Europe Center
Anna Grzymala-Busse Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies and Senior Fellow Panelist Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Encina Hall, C150
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305

0
Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
didi_kuo_2023.jpg

Didi Kuo is a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University. She is a scholar of comparative politics with a focus on democratization, corruption and clientelism, political parties and institutions, and political reform. She is the author of The Great Retreat: How Political Parties Should Behave and Why They Don’t (Oxford University Press) and Clientelism, Capitalism, and Democracy: the rise of programmatic politics in the United States and Britain (Cambridge University Press, 2018).

She has been at Stanford since 2013 as the manager of the Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective and is co-director of the Fisher Family Honors Program at CDDRL. She was an Eric and Wendy Schmidt Fellow at New America and is a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University, an MSc in Economic and Social History from Oxford University, where she studied as a Marshall Scholar, and a BA from Emory University.

Date Label
Didi Kuo Center Fellow Panelist CDDRL, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Dept. of Political Science
Encina Hall, Room 436
Stanford University,
Stanford, CA

(650) 724-5949
0
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations
Professor of Political Science
beatriz_magaloni_2024.jpg MA, PhD

Beatriz Magaloni Magaloni is the Graham Stuart Professor of International Relations at the Department of Political Science. Magaloni is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where she holds affiliations with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). She is also a Stanford’s King Center for Global Development faculty affiliate. Magaloni has taught at Stanford University for over two decades.

She leads the Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (Povgov). Founded by Magaloni in 2010, Povgov is one of Stanford University’s leading impact-driven knowledge production laboratories in the social sciences. Under her leadership, Povgov has innovated and advanced a host of cutting-edge research agendas to reduce violence and poverty and promote peace, security, and human rights.

Magaloni’s work has contributed to the study of authoritarian politics, poverty alleviation, indigenous governance, and, more recently, violence, crime, security institutions, and human rights. Her first book, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico (Cambridge University Press, 2006) is widely recognized as a seminal study in the field of comparative politics. It received the 2007 Leon Epstein Award for the Best Book published in the previous two years in the area of political parties and organizations, as well as the Best Book Award from the American Political Science Association’s Comparative Democratization Section. Her second book The Politics of Poverty Relief: Strategies of Vote Buying and Social Policies in Mexico (with Alberto Diaz-Cayeros and Federico Estevez) (Cambridge University Press, 2016) explores how politics shapes poverty alleviation.

Magaloni’s work was published in leading journals, including the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Criminology & Public Policy, World Development, Comparative Political Studies, Annual Review of Political Science, Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing, Latin American Research Review, and others.

Magaloni received wide international acclaim for identifying innovative solutions for salient societal problems through impact-driven research. In 2023, she was named winner of the world-renowned Stockholm Prize in Criminology, considered an equivalent of the Nobel Prize in the field of criminology. The award recognized her extensive research on crime, policing, and human rights in Mexico and Brazil. Magaloni’s research production in this area was also recognized by the American Political Science Association, which named her recipient of the 2021 Heinz I. Eulau Award for the best article published in the American Political Science Review, the leading journal in the discipline.

She received her Ph.D. in political science from Duke University and holds a law degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.

Director, Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab
Co-director, Democracy Action Lab
CV
Date Label
Beatriz Magaloni Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations and Senior Fellow Panelist Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

FSI
Stanford University
Encina Hall C140
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 736-1820 (650) 724-2996
0
Satre Family Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
kathryn_stoner_1_2022_v2.jpg MA, PhD

Kathryn Stoner is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), and a Senior Fellow at CDDRL and the Center on International Security and Cooperation at FSI. From 2017 to 2021, she served as FSI's Deputy Director. She is Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford and she teaches in the Department of Political Science, and in the Program on International Relations, as well as in the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy Program. She is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at the Hoover Institution.

Prior to coming to Stanford in 2004, she was on the faculty at Princeton University for nine years, jointly appointed to the Department of Politics and the Princeton School for International and Public Affairs (formerly the Woodrow Wilson School). At Princeton she received the Ralph O. Glendinning Preceptorship awarded to outstanding junior faculty. She also served as a Visiting Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, and an Assistant Professor of Political Science at McGill University. She has held fellowships at Harvard University as well as the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC. 

In addition to many articles and book chapters on contemporary Russia, she is the author or co-editor of six books: "Transitions to Democracy: A Comparative Perspective," written and edited with Michael A. McFaul (Johns Hopkins 2013);  "Autocracy and Democracy in the Post-Communist World," co-edited with Valerie Bunce and Michael A. McFaul (Cambridge, 2010);  "Resisting the State: Reform and Retrenchment in Post-Soviet Russia" (Cambridge, 2006); "After the Collapse of Communism: Comparative Lessons of Transitions" (Cambridge, 2004), coedited with Michael McFaul; and "Local Heroes: The Political Economy of Russian Regional" Governance (Princeton, 1997); and "Russia Resurrected: Its Power and Purpose in a New Global Order" (Oxford University Press, 2021).

She received a BA (1988) and MA (1989) in Political Science from the University of Toronto, and a PhD in Government from Harvard University (1995). In 2016 she was awarded an honorary doctorate from Iliad State University, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Mosbacher Director, Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Professor of Political Science (by courtesy), Stanford University
Senior Fellow (by courtesy), Hoover Institution
CV
Date Label
Kathryn Stoner Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) Panelist Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Panel Discussions
Date Label
Paragraphs

This paper analyzes interactions  between corporate governance and law enforcement practices, focusing on cases where deterrence is weak and harmful misconduct is profitable. We show how managerial compensation contracts, including stock-based compensation and insurance that shields managers from liability, systematically undermine enforcement efforts aimed both at the corporation and at managers. We also show that common enforcement policies such as discounting penalties when corporations voluntarily self-report or implement compliance programs can actually lead to more social harm by increasing the profitability of misconduct. Our results suggest that to be effective policies designed to deter corporate misconduct must account for interactions between external governance, such as laws and their enforcement, and internal governance mechanisms such as managerial compensation. The analysis offers insights into how to improve the deterrence of corporate misconduct.
 

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper Forthcoming
Authors
Anat R. Admati
Authors
Gary Mukai
News Type
Blogs
Date
Paragraphs

Over ten years ago in 2015, SPICE launched Stanford e-Japan, a national online course that enrolls high school students from Japan to engage in an intensive study of U.S. society and culture and U.S.–Japan relations. In 2016, SPICE launched Stanford e-Tottori, SPICE’s first regional program in Japan that enrolls high school students from across Tottori Prefecture. SPICE now enrolls approximately 230 to 240 students from nine regional programs in Japan. Six programs are prefectural programs (Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Oita, Tottori, Wakayama, Yamaguchi), and three are municipal programs (Kagoshima, Kawasaki, and Kobe).

In August 2025, SPICE held four award ceremonies for honorees of the 2024–2025 regional programs in Japan. Two honorees from each program were recognized. Stanford e-Fukuoka is currently in session, and the honorees will be recognized in August 2026.

Image
students holding plaques standing at the staircase


The first ceremony was held at Stanford University on August 8, 2025 for the top students in Stanford e-Kawasaki and Stanford e-Kobe. Inspirational opening comments were delivered by Consul Asami Chikae from the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco. Chikae’s comments were followed by remarks by Stanford e-Kawasaki instructor Maiko Tamagawa Bacha and Stanford e-Kobe instructor Alison Harsch and the honorees’ presentations. The honorees are:

Stanford e-Kawasaki

Reimi Ito; Tachibana High School

Yuka Nagasawa; Kawasaki High School

Stanford e-Kobe

Karen Ito; Kobe Municipal Fukiai High School

Shoko Urakami; Kobe University Secondary School

Image
students holding plaques standing at the staircase


In the second ceremony, top students from Stanford e-Oita and Stanford e-Tottori were honored on August 20, 2025 at Stanford University. Encouraging opening comments were delivered by Consul Mayu Hagiwara, Director of the Japan Information and Culture Center at the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco. Hagiwara’s comments were followed by remarks by Stanford e-Oita instructor Kasumi Yamashita and Stanford e-Tottori instructor Jonas Edman and the honorees’ presentations. The honorees are:

Stanford e-Oita

Yuri Kishida; Ajimu High School

Yoka Okuda; Usa High School
 
Stanford e-Tottori

Maiko Koyama; Tottori Nishi High School

Nobuki Tokukura; Seishokaichi High School

Image
students holding plaques standing at the staircase


During the third ceremony, top students from Stanford e-Hiroshima, Stanford e-Kagoshima City, and Stanford e-Yamaguchi were honored on August 22, 2025 at Stanford University. The ceremony began with inspiring comments by Deputy Consul General Takeshi Ishihara from the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco. Ishihara’s opening comments were followed by remarks by Stanford e-Hiroshima instructor Rylan Sekiguchi, Stanford e-Kagoshima City instructor Amy Cheng, and Stanford e-Yamaguchi instructor Mia Kimura and the honorees’ presentations. The honorees are:

Stanford e-Hiroshima

Haruka Morisako; Kamo High School

Yura Sakamoto; Kure Mitsuta High School

Stanford e-Kagoshima City

Aoi Machida; Kagoshima Gyokuryu High School

Yujiro Matsunaga; Kagoshima Gyokuryu High School

Stanford e-Yamaguchi

Asako Kaya; Iwakuni High School

Miku Kuramura; Shimonoseki Nishi High School

Image
zoom screenshot of students holding plaques


During the fourth ceremony, top students from Stanford e-Wakayama were honored online on August 26, 2025. Yuriko Sugahara, Advisor for Cultural and Educational Affairs at the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco provided motivating comments. Sugahara’s comments were followed by remarks by Stanford e-Wakayama instructor Dr. Makiko Hirata and the honorees’ presentations. The honorees are:

Stanford e-Wakayama 

Tomoka Kishigami; Kaichi High School

Yuto Nishi; Kushimoto Koza High School

Following each of the three in-person ceremonies, the students enjoyed a luncheon, a campus tour, and a dinner. Many students commented that one of the highlights of their visit to Stanford was having the chance to meet high school students from other regions of Japan. Many guests commented on how impressed they were with the student presentations and the poise that the students exhibited, especially during the question-and-answer periods.

Importantly, SPICE is grateful to the municipal and prefectural representatives who accompanied the students to Stanford or joined the online ceremony for Wakayama. They are Shoko Hirata (Hiroshima); Yuko Yamaguchi and Shingo Ishihara (Kagoshima City); Chika Ueda (Kobe City); Noriko Fujitsuka and Toshiyuki Yamamoto (Oita Prefecture); Natsu Odahara (Tottori Prefecture); Masanori Toda (Wakayama Prefecture); and Akinobu Tomonari (Yamaguchi Prefecture).


SPICE also offers online courses to U.S. high school students on Japan (Reischauer Scholars Program), China (China Scholars Program), Korea (Sejong Korea Scholars Program), and entrepreneurship (Stanford e-Entrepreneurship U.S.), to Chinese high school students on the United States (Stanford e-China), and to Japanese high school students on entrepreneurship (Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan).

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on FacebookX, and Instagram.

Read More

posed group shot of high school students and educators in Tottori, Japan
News

Seeing the world beyond a grain of sand: SPICE's online course for Tottori Prefecture

Seeing the world beyond a grain of sand: SPICE's online course for Tottori Prefecture
aerial view of university campus with a tower in the middle
News

Announcing the Honorees of SPICE’s 2024–25 Regional Programs in Japan

Congratulations to the 16 student honorees from Hiroshima Prefecture, Kagoshima City, Kawasaki City, Kobe City, Oita Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture, Wakayama Prefecture, and Yamaguchi Prefecture.
Announcing the Honorees of SPICE’s 2024–25 Regional Programs in Japan
Hero Image
Stanford University front entrance at the oval
Stanford University front entrance at the oval
Linda A. Cicero/Stanford News Service
All News button
1
Subtitle

Congratulations are extended to the 2024–2025 student honorees from Hiroshima Prefecture, Kagoshima City, Kawasaki City, Kobe City, Oita Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture, Wakayama Prefecture, and Yamaguchi Prefecture.

Date Label
-
Mary Elise Sarotte — Post-Cold War Era as History

Professor Mary Elise Sarotte, award-winning historian and author of Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, will offer reflections on the difficult task of writing history that is still unfolding. Covering the pivotal years from 1989 to 2022, her work traces how early decisions at the end of the Cold War shaped the trajectory of U.S.–Russia relations and contributed to the impasse that continues to trouble the international order today. In this conversation, Sarotte will explore the historian’s challenge of disentangling myth from evidence, of balancing archival distance with contemporary resonance, and of reckoning with a legacy that remains deeply contested and urgently relevant.

The event will begin with opening remarks from Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). The event will conclude with an audience Q&A.

This event is co-sponsored by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC).

speakers

Mary Elise Sarotte

Mary Elise Sarotte

Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Kravis Professor of Historical Studies
full bio

Mary Elise Sarotte received her AB in History and Science from Harvard and her PhD in History from Yale. She is an expert on the history of international relations, particularly European and US foreign policy, transatlantic relations, and Western relations with Russia. Her book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate, was shortlisted for both the Cundill Prize and the Duke of Wellington Medal, received the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Prize Silver Medal, and won the Pushkin House Prize for Best Non-Fiction Book on Russia. Not One Inch is now appearing in multiple Asian and European languages, including a best-selling and updated version in German, Nicht einen Schritt weiter nach Osten. In 2026, Sarotte will return to Yale for a joint appointment as a tenured professor in both the Jackson School of Global Affairs and the School of Organization and Management.

Kathryn Stoner

Kathryn Stoner

Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
full bio

Kathryn Stoner is the Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), and a Senior Fellow at CDDRL and the Center on International Security and Cooperation at FSI. From 2017 to 2021, she served as FSI's Deputy Director. She is Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford, and she teaches in the Department of Political Science, in the Program on International Relations, as well as in the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy Program. She is also a Senior Fellow (by courtesy) at the Hoover Institution.

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner

William J. Perry Conference Room, 2nd Floor
Encina Hall (616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

This is a hybrid event. For virtual participation, if prompted for a password, use: 123456

Mary Elise Sarotte Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Presenter Johns Hopkins University
Lectures
Date Label
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Argument and Contribution


At the national level, the United States struggled to effectively respond to the COVID-19 pandemic: federal policy was delayed and inconsistent, supply shortages were widespread, and political pressure undermined accurate public health guidance. At the state and local levels, however, there was a great deal of variation in terms of the capacity to respond to COVID. While indicators of state capacity often focus on “formal” indicators like institutional resources, staffing, and finances, translating formal capacities into effectively implemented policies is neither a simple nor an automatic process. 

In “Building the Plane While Flying,” Didi Kuo and Andrew S. Kelly draw our attention to the importance of informal indicators of public health capacity. These include strong relationships within and across government agencies, the embeddedness of health officers in local communities, and prior experience with responding to disasters, among other factors. The authors argue that local governments with strong informal capacity were better able to communicate with and learn from one another, as well as to gain the trust of community members, during the pandemic. Conversely, localities with otherwise strong formal capacities often failed to respond to the challenges at hand. This is because they were unable to effectively leverage their relationships and organizational networks.
 


The authors argue that local governments with strong informal capacity were better able to communicate with and learn from one another, as well as to gain the trust of community members, during the pandemic.


Kuo and Kelly’s paper is informed by qualitative analysis of California’s public health institutions as well as in-depth interviews with health officers across seventeen Northern, Central, and Southern California counties. The interviews illuminate the concrete processes by which local governments responded (or struggled to respond) to the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the paper’s key contributions is to push us to conceptualize state capacity more broadly and to focus on the factors that drive not just policy development, but policy implementation. 

The Importance of Informal Capacity


The bulk of the paper disaggregates informal capacity into its various mechanisms and processes. Each of these proves to be crucial in explaining different pandemic outcomes at the local level. One such mechanism is coordination within local governments. To illustrate this, consider public health officers, who enjoy broad legal powers to protect public health as well as financial resources and personnel at their disposal. By law, officers possess significant capacities to mitigate health crises. Yet across the interviews, health officers reported that effectively implementing COVID-19 policy required their cooperation and communication with a host of actors, including the County Counsel (the county’s top lawyer), Chief Administrative Officer, and Board of Supervisors, which is charged with appointing health officers.
 


Closely related to intra-governmental coordination is the importance of autonomy, particularly in the face of political pressure.


Closely related to intra-governmental coordination is the importance of autonomy, particularly in the face of political pressure. For example, boards of supervisors sometimes undermined the public guidance provided by health officers. (This guidance could range from the need to close schools to officers simply communicating truthfully with localities about COVID-19 risks.) Overcoming efforts by board members to ignore or muzzle officers required coordination between those actors who were more insulated from political pressure.

Another key component of informal capacity was prior experience responding to emergencies and California’s myriad of natural disasters, such as fires, floods, or mudslides. Health officers from more experienced counties noted their ability to draw upon established emergency procedures and partnerships. For example, some counties had previously cooperated with each other, as well as with independent agencies like the Red Cross, to provide aid and shelter to those affected by wildfires. These experiences — for which no amount of financial resources or personnel can substitute — served as templates to help coordinate COVID-19 policy responses.

Informal capacity also depended upon health departments effectively communicating with the public. Many departments initially lacked the infrastructure to do this, and therefore relied on cooperation with other actors like school superintendents, sheriffs, and community leaders. Some counties created toolkits to improve their community’s understanding of personal protective equipment (PPE) or even produced local TV shows. Still others scheduled conference calls with local hospitals, faith leaders, and nursing homes. Given that many of these communication efforts were improvised, public health officers stressed the importance of formalizing coordination between state and nonstate actors so as to improve emergency preparedness in the future.
 


In addition to coordination within local governments, effective policy-making and communication required coordination across governments.


In addition to coordination within local governments, effective policy-making and communication required coordination across governments. One such institution was the Association of Bay Area Health Officers (ABAHO), founded in the 1980s during the HIV/AIDS epidemic. ABAHO members had also coordinated policy responses to the H1N1 outbreak. These cross-county partnerships enabled early, rapid, and unified responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. By contrast, the authors find that regions without such networks faced greater challenges in developing and implementing public policy.

A final aspect of informal capacity is the social embeddedness of health officials in their communities. This includes partnerships with leaders of businesses and faith groups, teachers, and restaurant owners. Not only did these partnerships increase the scope of outreach, but they also often established relationships that had not existed beforehand. Gaining a foothold in local communities thus increased the likelihood that community members would support policies and enabled local governments to access hard-to-reach populations.
 


For federal, decentralized countries like the US, informal capacities and relationships are essential not only for delivering services but for generating legitimacy and trust among those receiving services.


Kuo and Kelly’s analysis of informal capacity should give us pause when considering existing indices of public health preparedness; some of these have ranked the United States quite high despite its often ineffective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. That this mismatch occurs is arguably a function of observers prioritizing formal capacities. For federal, decentralized countries like the US, informal capacities and relationships are essential not only for delivering services but for generating legitimacy and trust among those receiving services.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

Hero Image
A sign that says "Together we can help stop the spread of COVID-19" Michael Marais via Unsplash
All News button
1
Subtitle

CDDRL Research-in-Brief [3.5-minute read]

Date Label
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Motivation & Contribution


The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has sparked a domestic and global reckoning about racial injustice, especially with respect to police brutality. BLM mass protests — in particular, the misperception that these protests tend to be violent — have polarized much of American society, spawning pro-police countermovements like Blue Lives Matter. How can we understand the sources of public support for or opposition to racial justice movements like BLM? 

One suggestion is to look at the tactics used by protesters themselves, with the implication that more “disruptive” or “radical” tactics — for example, blocking highways as opposed to holding silent vigils — are key in determining how the public perceives BLM. In “How Police Behavior Shapes Perceptions of Protests,” Jasmine English, Ariel White, and Laurel Eckhouse provide evidence for a different answer: police tactics — in particular, whether protests were met with a heavy police presence — better explain why onlookers have perceived BLM protests as violent. After presenting data on the determinants of different police responses to protests, the authors conduct a survey experiment to explore how the presence of police at BLM protests affects public perceptions. 

The article deepens our understanding of the police as political actors who shape how Americans think about social movements. These perceptions are not solely determined by what protesters do or how the media portray them, but by how police respond. Worryingly for racial justice advocates, this means that violent police repression may fail to engender public sympathy for protesters; indeed, the mere presence of police leads onlookers to believe that protests are violent. Conversely, violent protest tactics are unnecessary for the public to perceive protesters as violent. The policy implications of these findings are that heavy police deployments at protests should be clearly justified and documented, given their potential to shape public opinion. 

Data & Findings


The authors assemble a dataset from over 1,000 BLM protests that occurred between 2014 and 2017. This includes details on protest tactics, timing (i.e., whether it was before or after dark), and size, as well as police tactics, including whether police were present, made arrests, or deployed crowd-control measures. The reader learns that BLM protests varied considerably in terms of size and place. So too did police responses vary, even in the face of similar protest messages and tactics. Police were present at nearly ⅔ of BLM protests, while at least one arrest occurred, and crowd control measures were deployed around one-fifth of the time. More generally, police responses ranged from using military gear, police joining in and kneeling with demonstrators, pushing elderly people to the ground, and undercover officers pointing guns at protesters.
 


 

Image
Protest Locations in the Contiguous United States Note: Point sizes are scaled by approximate protest size.


Protest Locations in the Contiguous United States
Note: Point sizes are scaled by approximate protest size. 



The authors run a regression analysis where the three dependent variables (DVs) or outcomes of interest are police presence, arrests made, and crowd control. The following independent variables (IVs) are found to be statistically significant in affecting all three DVs: highway blockages, protests occurring after dark, disruptive tactics (e.g., protesters changing themselves to objects), and large protests (i.e., over 1000 participants). However, the low predictive value of these IVs (also known as their R²) means the authors must find another way to understand how protests, police responses, and mass perceptions are linked in a causal way.
 


 

Image
Table 1: Protest Characteristics and Police Response


Table 1: Protest Characteristics and Police Response



Survey Experiment


The authors then conduct a survey experiment to test the following two hypotheses: H1: protests with a heavy police presence are more likely to be perceived by respondents as violent. H2: protests with a heavy police presence will yield less support for the overall movement from respondents. Over 2700 people participated in the experiment, which entailed respondents receiving two different “treatments”: one group read a “vignette” about a peaceful BLM protest, while the other read about a peaceful protest with a large police deployment. In other words, the only difference is whether police were present.
 


 

Image
Figure 2: News Article Vignette


Figure 2: News Article Vignette



H1 is measured by asking respondents how much they agree or disagree — on a five-point “Likert” scale ranging from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree” — with statements such as “the event was violent” or “protesters had violent intentions.” Similarly, H2 is measured by how much respondents agree with statements such as “I’d consider becoming involved in the protest,” “I support the protesters,” or “I’d post something positive about the protests on social media.” 

The authors find positive support for H1 but null support for H2. In other words, respondents who receive the treatment about police presence are more likely to view the protesters as violent, but this does not translate into reduced support for the movement. Their explanation for the null finding is as follows: “support” is a more medium- or long-term attitude, shaped by repeated “exposure” to protests over time. As such, a single exposure — in the form of reading a vignette — is unlikely to shift respondents’ support. By contrast, “believing something is violent” may be more easily shaped by a single exposure. Finally, the authors present exploratory (i.e., non-preregistered) data showing that the effects for white respondents in H1 are higher.
 



 

Image
Figure 5: Effects of Heavy Police Presence on Violence Perception


Figure 5: Effects of Heavy Police Presence on Violence Perception

 

Image
Figure 6: Effects of Police Presence on Support for BLM Protesters


Figure 6: Effects of Police Presence on Support for BLM Protesters



Ultimately, the article shows how police behavior, more than protester tactics, can shape public perceptions of social justice movements like BLM. These findings invite a reevaluation of important mass movements across American history — such as the Civil Rights Movement — where police responses played a pivotal role. A heavy police presence at otherwise peaceful protests can distort how the American public perceives constitutionally protected behavior, potentially undermining the accuracy that is necessary for democratic participation.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

Hero Image
BLM protest in Brooklyn, 2021
BLM protest in Brooklyn, 2021.
Flow Clark via Unsplash
All News button
1
Subtitle

CDDRL Research-in-Brief [3.5-minute read]

Date Label
Authors
Gary Mukai
News Type
Blogs
Date
Paragraphs


Stanford e-Japan enrolls exceptional high school students from Japan to engage in an intensive study of U.S. society and culture. The Reischauer Scholars Program (RSP) enrolls exceptional high school students from the United States to engage in an intensive study of Japanese society and culture. Both courses underscore the importance of U.S.–Japan relations. The Yanai Tadashi Foundation is the current supporter of Stanford e-Japan, and the Japan Fund at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) is the current supporter of the RSP.

On August 11, 2025, the 2025 Japan Day award ceremony was held at Stanford University to honor SPICE’s Spring and Fall 2024 Stanford e-Japan student honorees and the 2025 RSP student honorees. The honorees performed at the highest levels of their courses as determined by Stanford e-Japan instructors Waka Takahashi Brown (spring course) and Meiko Kotani (fall course), RSP instructor Naomi Funahashi, and the research paper review committees. The honorees are:

Spring 2024 Stanford e-Japan 
Aoi Furutani, Saitama Municipal Urawa High School, “Comparative Analysis of Surrogacy Policies in the United States and Japan: Proposals for Introducing Surrogacy in Japan”

Komari Machida, Crimson Global Academy, “Futoukou vs. Homeschooling: Exploring Societal Reintegration of Children Outside of Traditional School Systems in Japan and the United States”

Sota Tajima, Seiko Gakuin High School, “Synergy in the Stars: How the U.S. and Japan Can Lead the Next Era of Space”

Honorable Mentions:
Ryu Sato, Soka Senior High School, “Japanese and American Philanthropic Culture in Regard to College Financial Aid”

Sakura Suzuki, Hokkaido Asahikawa Higashi High School, “Designing School Buildings to Encourage Student Creativity: Comparing Historical Changes in School Buildings in Japan and the United States”

Fall 2024 Stanford e-Japan
Ellen Nema, Junior and Senior High School Affiliated to Showa Pharmaceutical University, “Breaking the Chain of Poverty in Okinawa: Educational Approaches and Foundations”

Hirotaka Onishi, Kaisei Gakuen High School, “A Time for Reconsideration: Toward a New International Monetary Order”

Mia Yakushiji, Murasakino Municipal High School, “Dual Citizenship in Japan”

Honorable Mentions:
Lynne Mizushima, Keio Shonan Fujisawa Junior & Senior High School, “The Lack of Female Political Leaders in Japan: A Cultural Glass Ceiling”

Kan Sugimi, Isahaya High School, “Should Bilingual Parents in the U.S. Raise Bilingual Children?”

2025 Reischauer Scholars Program
Bennett Feng, Horace Mann School, “From Economic Rebirth to Structural Stagnation”

Jessica Hu, The Harker School, “Dried-Up Rivers: State-Sponsored Linguistic Oppression and Its Erasure of Ainu Identity”

Ty Tan, Coral Academy of Science Las Vegas, “Recalibrating Japan’s FOIP”

Honorable Mentions:

Jackson Hayward, The Nueva School, “Shikata ga nai: Voter Apathy and Cultural Depoliticization in Modern Japan”

Radoslav Kyselak, Highland Hall Waldorf School, “Norms Through Networks: Japan’s Digital Diplomacy as a Counter to China’s Digital Silk Road in the Global South”

Image
two people holding a plaque in front of a screen


The program began with welcoming comments from the Honorable Yo Osumi, Consul General of Japan in San Francisco. He commented that the Reischauer Scholars Program and Stanford e-Japan are very important for our two nations—given that both engage future leaders in both countries—and extended high praise to the honorees. Consul General Osumi’s tenure ended at the end of August and on behalf of my colleagues at SPICE, I presented him with a plaque from SPICE to acknowledge his unwavering support of SPICE’s Japan programs.

Image
people with plaques are gathered outside in front of palm trees

 

Image
students with plaques standing outside with palm trees in the back


Following the welcoming and opening comments, Brown, Kotani, and Funahashi gave overviews of their courses and introduced the student honorees. The student honorees made engaging presentations based on their research papers and fielded very thought-provoking questions from the audience. Each honoree received a plaque from their instructor. The photo on the top is of the Stanford e-Japan honorees, and the photo on the bottom is of the RSP honorees; photo credit: Irene Bryant.

The RSP will enter its 23rd year in 2026, and Stanford e-Japan is about to enter its 11th year. Many of the alumni are studying U.S.–Japan relations, engaged in various fields related to U.S.–Japan relations, and continue to give back to both programs by being guest speakers and mentors to the new students.

Following the formal event, the student honorees—most having just met each other in person for the first time—had the chance to enjoy a Stanford campus tour together. It is the hope of Brown, Kotani, and Funahashi that the Japanese and American student honorees will continue to strengthen their budding friendships and ensure that the U.S.–Japan relationship remains strong.

SPICE is grateful to President Tadashi Yanai for his generous support of Stanford e-Japan and to the staff of the Yanai Tadashi Foundation for their regular correspondence and encouragement. SPICE is thankful to the Japan Fund committee at FSI for its generous support of the Reischauer Scholars Program. These courses and the ceremony would not be possible without them. SPICE is also grateful to SPICE Event Coordinator Sabrina Ishimatsu for meticulously planning and implementing the event.

SPICE is currently accepting applications for the 2026 Reischauer Scholars Program. The deadline to apply is October 17, 2025.

The application for the 2026 session of Stanford e-Japan will open on November 15, 2025.

SPICE also offers online courses to U.S. high school students on China (China Scholars Program), Korea (Sejong Korea Scholars Program), and entrepreneurship (Stanford e-Entrepreneurship U.S.), to Chinese high school students on the United States (Stanford e-China), and to Japanese high school students on entrepreneurship (Stanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan).

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on FacebookX, and Instagram.

Read More

people sitting around a table
Blogs

The Yanai Tadashi Foundation and SPICE/Stanford University

Four Stanford freshmen Yanai Scholars reflect on their experiences.
The Yanai Tadashi Foundation and SPICE/Stanford University
collage of Japanese students
News

Empowering the Next Generation of Japanese Leaders

Yanai Scholars, Stanford e-Japan alumni, and EducationUSA representatives highlight a special session for the Spring 2022 Stanford e-Japan students.
Empowering the Next Generation of Japanese Leaders
Hero Image
people gathering outside in front of palm trees
Front row, left to right: Meiko Kotani, Waka Takahashi Brown, Ty Tan, Sota Tajima, Aoi Furutani, Consul General Yo Osumi, Rado Kyselak, Kan Sugimi, Gary Mukai, Ellen Nema, Naomi Funahashi, Yuriko Sugahara; back row, left to right: Bennett Feng, Jessica Hu, Komari Machida, Jackson Hayward, Hirotaka Onishi
Photo credit: Irene Bryant
All News button
1
Subtitle

SPICE instructors Waka Takahashi Brown, Naomi Funahashi, and Meiko Kotani recognize their student honorees.

Date Label
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Motivation


Retaliation (or the threat thereof) is a central component of human behavior. It plays a key role in sustaining cooperation — such as in international organizations or free trade agreements — because those known to retaliate come to acquire a reputation of being hard to exploit. But how does the use and function of retaliation vary across cultures, and how does it interact with formal forms of punishment?

In “Cross-cultural differences in retaliation: Evidence from the soccer field,” Alain Schläpfer tackles these questions using data on retaliation from association football. Retaliation is simply defined in terms of fouling: player B retaliates against player A if and only if, after A fouls B, B then fouls A. Among other findings, Schläpfer shows that players from cultures emphasizing revenge are more likely to retaliate on the football field. This form of ‘informal punishment’ by players also interacts with ‘formal punishment’ by referees: retaliation by B is less likely when A is sanctioned with a yellow card. Schläpfer’s paper increases our knowledge of the causes and consequences of retaliation, while showing how informal cultural norms interact with the formal rules of football.  

Data


Schläpfer creates a data set of fouls committed over three football seasons (2016-2019) in nine of the world’s top professional men’s leagues. This includes the European leagues of Premier League (England), Serie A (Italy), Bundesliga (Germany), LaLiga (Spain), and Ligue 1 (France), as well as Série A (Brazil), Liga Profesional (Argentina), Liga MX (Mexico), and Major League Soccer (United States). The dataset comprises 9,531 games, 230,113 fouls committed by 10,928 unique perpetrators from 139 countries against 11,115 unique victims from 137 countries.

Because Schläpfer hypothesizes that being from more revenge-centric cultures explains on-field retaliation, the key independent variable is measured using a dataset from Stelios Michalopoulos and Melanie Meng Xue that identifies revenge motifs in a culture’s folklore. Examples of this include supernatural forces avenging human murders or animals avenging the death of their friends by humans. Schläpfer uses a host of other independent variables, such as country-level survey data about the desire to punish — as opposed to rehabilitate — criminals, which is also theoretically linked to revenge. As stated above, retaliation is measured in terms of fouls committed. Schläpfer shows that there is substantial variation in retaliation rates among players from different countries, from Gabon (8%) to Iceland (31%). Can the folklore in the country of origin explain the behavior of players on the field?
 


 

Image
Fig. 1. The share of fouls retaliated in soccer games (top) and the prevalence of revenge motifs in folklore (bottom). Both variables tend to have higher values for players and folklore from the Middle East, Central Africa, Eastern Europe, and parts of South America.


Fig. 1. The share of fouls retaliated in soccer games (top) and the prevalence of revenge motifs in folklore (bottom). Both variables tend to have higher values for players and folklore from the Middle East, Central Africa, Eastern Europe, and parts of South America.
 



Findings


Retaliation:

Schläpfer finds evidence that players from cultures that value revenge are indeed more likely to retaliate for fouls. However, they are not more likely to commit fouls overall, cautioning us against conflating the concepts of retaliation and violence. Indeed, Schläpfer demonstrates that motifs of violence in a culture's folklore do not predict retaliation. Players are also found to be more retaliatory early on in a game, which is consistent with its use as a signal or aspect of one’s reputation. In other words, retaliation serves to deter future fouls. Victims of fouls also retaliate quickly. Indeed, retaliation rates are stable or slightly increasing during the first 30 minutes of a game, but then fall consistently thereafter.
 


 

Image
Table 1. Effect of the prevalence of revenge motifs in victim’s country of nationality on the predicted likelihood of retaliation for the foul.

 



Evidence is also provided to show that retaliation deters future transgressions: perpetrators are less likely to foul again if victims retaliate for the initial foul. However, this deterrence finding is only observed when the perpetrator is from a revenge culture. In other words, for retaliation to support cooperation (the absence of fouls), players must share a similar cultural background.

Schläpfer’s findings hold even when soccer-related or socioeconomic factors are taken into account. Further, the paper considers, but finds little support for, alternative explanations of why retaliation varies. These include that some teams encourage players to retaliate more or employ more players from revenge cultures. Further, retaliation does not appear to be driven by emotions; otherwise, it would be less likely to occur after halftime when players have had a chance to cool down, but this is not the case.
 


 

Image
Table 5. Other cultural measures rarely predict retaliation. Standardized coefficients reported.

 



Informal and Formal Sanctioning:

Finally, Schläpfer analyzes the interaction between player retaliation and refereeing. Most importantly, retaliation is significantly less likely if a foul is sanctioned with a yellow card. This illustrates the theoretical principle of formal punishment “crowding out” informal punishment, such as religious excommunication, which carries greater weight than social shunning or police fines compared to peer pressure. Both retaliation and referee sanctioning are shown to reduce the frequency of repeated offenses by perpetrators, especially among players from revenge cultures. However, Schläpfer finds that formal sanctioning is roughly three times more effective than retaliation. This suggests that football referees are doing a better job managing conflict between players than players themselves. 

Schläpfer concludes by mentioning a few of the paper’s limitations. First of all, retaliation is measured only by what referees sanction. However, referees may miss crucial incidents for which retaliation is a response, such as Zinedine Zidane’s 2006 World Cup headbutt after a verbal insult (that was not sanctioned). This is important because individuals from revenge cultures are likely to be particularly offended by verbal insults. Second, the paper does not capture retaliation that occurs across games played by the same teams over time, particularly when rivalries and hostilities have intensified. Similarly, it does not account for preemptive retaliation that does not follow a foul. Ultimately, Schläpfer deepens our understanding of retaliation in a domain where many would expect it not to operate or to do so with minimal significance. The article impressively marshals large-scale data from both sports and cultural history to clarify the causes and consequences of retaliation.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

Hero Image
A person in a red and blue football uniform on a field Jona Møller via Unsplash
All News button
1
Subtitle

CDDRL Research-in-Brief [4-minute read]

Date Label
Subscribe to United States