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North Korea's renewed bid for nuclear weapons poses an urgent, serious foreign policy challenge to the United States. The current situation -- though it bears a resemblance to the events of 1993-1994 -- is far more dangerous and difficult. North Korea has developed longer-range ballistic missiles; South Korea's growing nationalism has put its U.S. relations on shakier ground; and the United States is distracted by the wars on terrorism and for regime change in Iraq.

Despite these challenges, good prospects still exist for a diplomatic resolution to the North Korea problem. North Korea's dire economic circumstances have made it more vulnerable to outside pressure at a time when its neighbor nations and the United States are increasingly concerned about its nuclear ambition. Military means would not only exact huge human casualties but also deepen U.S. estrangement from Seoul and diminish prospects for developing a joint strategy with other Asian powers.

Given the urgency and complexity of the current situation, appointment of a special coordinator for North Korean policy could help the administration to formulate a unified policy, sell it to Congress, coordinate it with allies, and present it to Pyongyang. In any event, a key requirement will be real "give and take" negotiations with South Korea to arrive at a coordinated strategy.

In the end, Pyongyang must choose: economic assistance and security assurance on the condition that all nuclear activities be abandoned, or dire consequences if nuclear programs continue. Any new agreement, however, must avoid the deficiencies of the 1994 Agreed Framework. It must be more verifiable, less readily reversible, more comprehensive, more politically defensible, and more enforceable through the involvement of North Korea's neighbors.

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Shorenstein APARC
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Daniel I. Okimoto
Gi-Wook Shin
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Asked his reaction to the Iraq war, the accused Bali bomber Amrozi said: "It just goes to show I was not wrong to bomb." The October 2002 bombings of two nightclubs on Bali were the worst act of terrorism since 9/11. 202 people died; 350 were seriously injured. Preliminary analysis of what the suspected perpetrators have said about the case suggests that they were motivated mainly by deep hatred of the United States. This lecture will explore the ideology and psychology of the accused bombers and, more broadly, the likely impact of the war in Iraq on terrorism in Southeast Asia. Greg Fealy is a leading specialist on Islam and the history and politics of Indonesia. His publications include two co-edited books, Nahdlatul Ulama, Traditionalism and Modernity in Indonesia and Local Power and Politics in Indonesia: Decentralisation and Democratisation. He has worked as an Indonesia analyst for the Office of National Assessments in Canberra and as a consultant for the Asia Foundation and the U.S. Agency for International Development in Jakarta. The history of Indonesia's largest Muslim party was the subject of his dissertation (PhD, Monash University, Australia, 1998).

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Greg Fealy Visiting Professor, Southeast Asian Studies Program School of Advanced International Studies, John Hopkins University
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Seeking to tap the huge potential of Greater China, many in Asia seek to replicate the Silicon Valley model. Yet, as much art as it is science, successful VC investing has proven to be uneven in Asia. Why? With respect to innovation, why is it that Asians have good reputations for replicating but not creating cutting edge technology? Is there a disconnect when this is compared to the experiences of U.S. high-tech icons, such as Intel and Apple, filled with Asian-born -- and in many cases educated -- scientists and businessmen? How does the Silicon Valley experience track with Singapore's determined efforts to promote creativity? What lessons, if any, are applicable to Greater China? With respect to entrepreneurship in Greater China, it is clear that Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Mainland are full of hard-driving individuals seeking to build wealth and prosperity. However, in some ways, is there perhaps an overabundance of entrepreneurship? Are there too many in this part of the world who want to be in charge and too few to follow and implement? How can a more productive form of entrepreneurship be fostered?

About the speaker
Dr. Ta-lin Hsu is chairman and founder of H&Q Asia Pacific (H&QAP), a premier private equity firm investing in Asia and the U.S. since 1985. Through ten offices in the region, H&QAP invests in a variety of high-growth sectors, including technology, biotech, financial services, media and branded consumer products. H&QAP manages sixteen funds with approximately $1.6 billion in assets invested in over 250 portfolio companies. Three of these funds comprise $1.1 billion in assets and invest on a diversified basis across the Asia Pacific region while the remaining thirteen funds are country funds.

Dr. Hsu holds numerous advisory positions with governmental and industry organizations. He was a founding member of the prestigious Technology Review Board of Taiwan, a group established to advise the Executive Yuan on all technology matters. Dr. Hsu was also a founder of the Monte Jade Science & Technology organization, the premier nonprofit organization promoting technology exchange between Taiwan and the U.S. He was also a founder and first president of the Bay Area Chapter of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, the largest Chinese-American engineering society in the U.S.

Dr. Hsu received his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering from the University of California, Berkeley following a M.S. in electrophysics from the Polytechnic Institute of Brooklyn and a B.S. in physics from National Taiwan University. He was a staff scientist at Allied Chemical for two years before joining IBM Research Laboratories in 1973. Dr. Hsu worked at IBM for twelve years, reaching the position of senior manager in the research division -- with corporate responsibility for advanced research and development of mass storage systems and technology -- before joining Hambrecht & Quist as a general partner in 1985.

Dr. Hsu is an Advisory Board Member of the the University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the Board of Trustees of the Asia Foundation.

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Dr. Ta-Lin Hsu Chairman and Founder Hambrecht & Quist Asia Pacific
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C. Richard D'Amato is the vice chairman of the U.S.-China Security Review Commission, a commission established by Congress to review the national security implications of U.S. trade relations with China. Formerly a delegate to the General Assembly of the State of Maryland, he is the president of a consulting firm that represents American corporations on strategic planning and international trade matters. He is also a retired captain in the United States Navy Reserve, a position that brought him a variety of assignments, including attache duty at the U.S. embassy in Beijing, China, on proliferation issues and military-to-military initiatives in March 1997; service in the Battle Group Command Staff of the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea during Operation Desert Shield; serving as an operations officer directing air drops into Bosnia and Sarajevo; and service on the planning staff of the newly created Asia-Pacific Center, which is a conference and study center under the commander of U.S. Forces for the Pacific, in Honolulu, Hawaii. Recently, Mr. D'Amato served as a member of the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission, a congressionally created commission charged with studying the nature, causes and consequences of the United States merchandise trade and current account deficits.

For ten years, beginning in 1988, Mr. D'Amato was the Democratic counsel for the Committee on Appropriations of the United States Senate. He was responsible for coordinating and managing the annual appropriations bills and other legislation on policy and funding of U.S. international operations and programs, including trade and defense and the full range of foreign activities of the U.S. government.

Mr. D'Amato has also served as senior foreign policy counsel for Senator Robert C. Byrd. In this capacity, Mr. D'Amato drafted the resolution that set Senate standards for international global climate change treaty negotiations. He also worked on a wide array of issues affecting U.S. international economic and political interests, including U.S.-Japan auto trade talks; World Trade Organization review legislation; U.S. involvement and funding of operations in Bosnia, Somalia, and Rwanda; and burden-sharing agreements during the Gulf War. Between 1980 and 1987, Mr. D'Amato served as the policy director for the Majority Leader, Senator Robert C. Byrd, for political, economic, and security policies. In this position, Mr. D'Amato supervised all work on a number of important legislative initiatives, including the 1988 Omnibus Trade Bill and the "Super 301" provision. Mr. D'Amato also wrote key legislation dealing with U.S.-Japan economic relations. During his career on Capitol Hill, Mr. D'Amato also served as the co-director of the Senate Arms Control Observer Group.

Mr. D'Amato began his career first as the legislative director for Congressman James Jeffords (R-VT) between 1975 and 1978, and beginning in 1978, as the legislative assistant and then chief of staff for Senator Abraham Ribicoff (D-CT) until 1980.

Mr. D'Amato has been very active in other aspects of public service, including an appointment as an assistant professor of government for the United States Naval Academy between 1968 and 1971, during which he was assistant varsity basketball coach and the sailing coach. He was responsible for the creation of an annual scholarship with the YWCA for college bound African American women and was the chairman of a local charitable hunger relief action organization in 1996, 1997, and 1998, which was a part of the nationwide "Share Our Strength" organization, the most successful hunger relief effort in the United States. In addition, he is active in the boating community in Annapolis, where he and his wife, Dorothy, have lived for thirty years.

Mr. D'Amato received his B.A. from Cornell University in 1964, graduating cum laude in government. He serves now on the Board of Trustees' Council for Cornell University. Mr. D'Amato received his M.A. and M.A.L.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Boston in 1967, and received his J.D. from Georgetown University Law Center in 1980.

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The Honorable C. Richard D'Amato Vice Chairman U.S.-China Security Review Commission
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David G. Victor
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Having backed down from its trade dispute with the EU over GM food, the Bush administration will find it hard to make the threat of going to the trade organization credible again and to continue the momentum toward removing Europe's ban.

STANFORD, California - The Bush administration wisely backed away this month from formally challenging Europe's ban on genetically modified foods. It made no sense to antagonize Europeans over the food they eat when they are pivotal to more weighty matters, such as a new resolution on Iraq.

Still, Washington's threat that it would file a case against the European Union at the World Trade Organization had palpable benefits. Even the countries with the most hostile policies on engineered food - France and Germany among them - took steps toward allowing the European Union to work on replacing the blanket ban with a new system for tracing and labeling engineered food.

But the decision to back off also means that American farmers are still denied access to the lucrative European market. European consumers still pay more for food than they should. And developing countries that could most benefit from engineered crops are still frightened that losing their "engineering-free" status will make it impossible to export food to Europe.

Yet the science on food safety is as certain as it ever gets: There is no known danger from eating engineered food.

Having backed down, the Bush administration will find it hard to make the threat of going to the trade organization credible again and to continue the momentum toward removing Europe's ban. But even harder for the administration will be keeping domestic politics at bay.

The biggest threat to the success of the U.S. strategy on engineered foods is in the American heartland, which is angling for a fight with Europe over the ban as the 2004 elections approach. Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa called the decision to defer a trade dispute "the usual snobbery" of a State Department "more concerned about international sensitivities than the American farmer." Two tactics should guide the effort to open Europe's markets. One is to let the Europeans lead their own reform.

The engineered foods available to consumers today mainly benefit farmers who can grow them at lower cost. These foods look and taste the same as their traditional counterparts. For rich consumers in Europe willing to pay a bit more, it is easy to focus on hypothetical risks and shun these products. But the next generation of engineered foods, already nearing the marketplace, will have healthful benefits for consumers - fruits that contain cancer-fighting lycopene, for instance - and this will make it harder for European countries to bar all these foods.

During the furor last summer over Zambia's rejection of genetically modified corn, prominent European politicians were forced to declare that these foods were safe - a blatant contradiction of Europe's own policies.

The other tactic is outreach to the developing world. In the poorest nations, agriculture provides the livelihood of most of the population, and agricultural research proves that genetic engineering can make crops that poor farmers grow both healthier and more productive.

Yet research on engineered crops and support for farmers who grow them lack money, not only in U.S. agricultural development and extension programs but also at the international agricultural research centers that were the engine of the first green revolution. In the last decade American support for international agricultural research has declined considerably.

An American program that would finance agricultural research on novel uses for genetically modified crops in developing countries would help those countries and could eventually help open European markets.

An American-led effort to pry open those markets would backfire. But one led by a developing country could succeed, as Europe considers the moral issues posed by barring food from a country which needs to sell its crops to survive. So far, few developing countries (South Africa is one exception) allow commercial planting of engineered crops. The United States needs to overcome the fears of the developing nations by growing such crops there and demonstrating how they could transform agriculture.

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David G. Victor
Nadejda M. Victor
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Since the fall of communism, the U.S. and Russia have been searching for areas for mutually beneficial cooperation. While oil has historically taken center stage, David and Nadejda Victor argue that diplomats should consider nuclear energy as well.

Since the Iron Curtain came crashing down, American and Russian diplomats have been searching for a special relationship between their countries to replace Cold War animosity.

Security matters have not yielded much. On issues such as the expansion of Nato, stabilising Yugoslavia and the war in Chechnya, the two have sought each other's tolerance more than co-operation. Nor have the two nations developed much economic interaction, as a result of Russia's weak institutions and faltering economy. Thus, by default, "energy" has become the new special topic in Russian-American relations.

This enthusiasm is misplaced, however. A collapse of oil prices in the aftermath of an invasion of Iraq may soon lay bare the countries' divergent interests. Russia needs high oil prices to keep its economy afloat, whereas US policy would be largely unaffected by falling energy costs. Moreover, cheerleaders of a new Russian-American oil partnership fail to understand that there is not much the two can do to influence the global energy market or even investment in Russia's oil sector. The focus on oil has also eclipsed another area in which US and Russian common interests could run deeper: nuclear power. Joint efforts to develop new technologies for generating nuclear power and managing nuclear waste could result in a huge payoff for both countries. These issues, which are the keys to keeping nuclear power viable, are formally on the Russian-American political agenda, but little has been done to tap the potential for co -operation. Given Russia's scientific talent and the urgent need to reinvigorate nuclear non-proliferation programmes, a relatively minor commitment of diplomatic and financial resources could deliver significant long-term benefits to the United States.

On the surface, energy co-operation seems a wise choice. Russia is rich in hydrocarbons and the US wants them. Oil and gas account for two-fifths of Russian exports. Last year, Russia reclaimed its status, last held in the late 1980s, as the world's top oil producer. Its oil output this year is expected to top eight million barrels per day and is on track to rise further. Russian oil firms also made their first shipments to US markets last year - some symbolically purchased as part of US efforts to augment its strategic petroleum reserve. In addition, four Russian oil companies are preparing a new, large port in Murmansk as part of a plan to supply more than 10 per cent of total US oil imports within a decade.

Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest consumer and importer of oil. This year, it will import about 60 per cent of the oil it burns, and the US Energy Information Administration expects foreign dependence will rise to about 70 per cent by 2010, and continue inching upwards thereafter. Although the US economy is much less sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices than it was three decades ago, diversification and stability in world oil markets are a constant worry.

War jitters and political divisions cast a long shadow over the Persian Gulf, source of one-quarter of the world's oil. In Nigeria, the largest African oil exporter, sectarian violence periodically not only interrupts oil operations but also sent Miss World contestants packing last year. A scheme by Latin America's top producer, Venezuela, to pump up its share of world production helped trigger a collapse in world oil prices in the late 1990s and ushered in the leftist government of President Hugo Chavez. Last year, labour strikes aimed at unseating Mr Chavez shut Venezuela's ports and helped raise prices to more than US$ 30 (HK$ 234) a barrel. Next to these players, Russia is a paragon of stability.

The aftermath of a war in Iraq would probably provide a first test for the shallow new Russian-American partnership. Most attention on Russian interests in Iraq has focused on two issues: Iraq's lingering Soviet-era debt, variously measured at US$ 7 billion to US$ 12 billion, and the dominant position of Russian companies in controlling leases for several Iraqi oilfields. Both are red herrings. No company that has signed lease deals with Saddam Hussein's government could believe those rights are secure. Russia's top oil company, Lukoil, knew that when it met Iraqi opposition leaders in an attempt to hedge its bets for possible regime change. (Saddam's discovery of those contacts proved the point: he cancelled, then later reinstated, Lukoil's interests in the massive Western Kurna field.)

Russian officials have pressed the US to guarantee the existing contracts, but officials have wisely demurred. There would be no faster way to confirm Arab suspicions that regime change is merely a cover for taking control of Iraq's oil than by awarding the jewels before a new government is known and seated.

Of course, the impact of a war on world oil supply and price is hard to predict. A long war and a tortuous rebuilding process could deprive the market of Iraqi crude oil (about two million barrels a day, last year). Damage to nearby fields in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could make oil even more scarce. And already tight inventories and continued troubles in Venezuela could deliver a "perfect storm" of soaring oil prices.

The most plausible scenario, however, is bad news for Russia: a brief war, quickly followed by increased Iraqi exports, along with a clear policy of releasing oil from America's reserves to deter speculators. A more lasting Russian-American energy agenda would focus on subjects beyond the current, fleeting common interest in oil. To find an area in which dialogue can truly make a difference, Russia and the US should look to the subject that occupied much of their effort in the 1990s, but that both sides neglected too quickly: nuclear power.

With the end of the Cold War, the two nations created a multi-billion-dollar programme to sequester Russia's prodigious quantities of fissile material and nuclear technology. The goal was to prevent these "loose nukes" from falling into the hands of terrorists or hostile states.

The Co-operative Threat Reduction programme also included funds to employ Russian scientists through joint research projects and academic exchanges.

Inevitably, it has failed to meet all its goals. In a country where central control has broken down and scientific salaries have evaporated, it is difficult to halt the departure of every nuclear resource. Nor is it surprising that US appropriators have failed to deliver the billions of dollars promised for the collective endeavour. Other priorities have constantly intervened, and Russia's uneven record in complying with arms control agreements has made appropriation of funds a perpetual congressional battle. Various good ideas for reinvigorating the programme have gone without funding and bureaucratic attention - even in the post-September 11 political environment, in which practically any idea for fighting terrorism can get money.

Russia has opened nuclear waste encapsulation and storage facilities near Krasnoyarsk, raising the possibility of creating an international storage site for nuclear waste. This topic has long been taboo, but it is an essential issue to raise if the global nuclear power industry is to move beyond the inefficiencies of small-scale nuclear waste management.

Russia should also be brought into worldwide efforts to design new nuclear reactors. The global nuclear research community, under US leadership, has outlined comprehensive and implementable plans for the next generation of fission reactors. The Russian nuclear programme is one of the world's leaders in handling the materials necessary for new reactor designs. Yet Russia is not currently a member of the US government-led Generation IV International Forum, one of the main vehicles for international co-operation on fission reactors and their fuel cycles. Top US priorities must include integrating Russia into that effort, endorsing Russia's relationships with other key nuclear innovators (such as Japan), and delivering on the promise made at last summer's G8 meeting of leaders of the world's biggest economies - to help Russia secure its nuclear materials.

For opponents of nuclear power, no plan will be acceptable. But the emerging recognition that global warming is a real threat demands that nations develop serious, environmentally friendly energy alternatives. Of all the major options available today, only nuclear power and hydroelectricity offer usable energy with essentially zero emissions of greenhouse gases.

Neither government should be naive about the sustainability of this endeavour. Russia is not an ideal partner because its borders have been a sieve for nuclear know-how and because its nuclear managers are suspected of abetting the outflow. Thus, plans for nuclear waste storage, for example, must ensure that they render the waste a minimal threat for proliferation. The US must also be more mindful of Russian sensitivity to co-operation on matters that, to date, have been military secrets.

Another difficult issue that both nations must confront is Russia's relationship with Iran. A perennial thorn in ties, Russia's nuclear co -operation with officials in Tehran owes much not just to Iranian money but to the complex relationship between the two countries over drilling and export routes for Caspian oil. This link to Iran cannot be wished away, as it is rooted in Russia's very geography. Any sustainable nuclear partnership between the US and Russia must develop a political strategy to handle this reality.

The world, including the US, needs the option of viable nuclear power. Yet Russia's talented scientists and nuclear resources sit idle, ready for action.

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This unit introduces students to the topics of diasporas, migration, and the role and experience of diasporic communities in the United States. Students learn about five diasporas in the United States-the Armenian, Chinese, Cuban, Irish, and Yoruban- from their development as diasporas to their contemporary identities, roles, and remaining homeland ties.
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This seminar is part 1 of SPRIE's 5-part series on "Greater China: Entrepreneurial Leaders."

For a long time, researchers have asked whether the success of Silicon Valley can be replicated elsewhere. There have been various levels of attempts and various levels of success outside the United States.

Depending on how success is measured, one can draw different conclusions. How do we evaluate Hsinchu Science Park? Have they created innovative products? Have they produced entrepreneurs? How do they stack up to Silicon Valley? What is their competitive edge? As China joins the WTO, what should its strategy be?

On a long-term basis, what are the factors that will drive and deliver sustainable competitive advantages? With changes in global economic conditions, how does one re-evaluate the Silicon Valley model? As China joins the WTO, what should its strategy be? And as China becomes the manufacturer of the world, what is its impact on Taiwan and Silicon Valley?

This talk offers an analysis of experiences in Silicon Valley and Asia in the past twenty years. It also offers some reflections on the model and strategy for Greater China.

Since November 1998, Sha has been a managing partner at Spring Creek Venture, which specializes in early-stage venture investment and business consultation with Internet and infrastructure companies. Sha is currently serving on the board of directors of several start-up companies, including Appstream, Acela, Aduva, E21, LiveABC, Optoplex, Mediostream, and Tom.com.

Sha has extensive experience as a leader of high technology companies. He served as CEO for Sina.com and senior vice president of Commerce Solutions at Netscape Communications. While at Netscape, he served concurrently as president and CEO of Actra Business Systems, a joint venture formed by Netscape and GE Information Services. A company Sha built from scratch, Actra was the first company to focus on business-to-business e-commerce and e-procurement application systems. Prior to Actra, Mr. Sha served as vice president and general manager of business-to-consumer integrated application business at Netscape Communications and vice president of the UNIX Product Division at Oracle Corporation.

In his community service, Sha served as chairman of the Monte Jade West Coast association from 2000-2001. Sha currently is serving as chairman of the Monte Jade Global Association, the premier technology entrepreneur association with twelve chapters in the United States, Canada, Singapore, and Taiwan.

Mr. Sha holds an MS in EECS from the University of California at Berkeley, an MBA from Santa Clara University, and a BS in EE from Taiwan University.

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James C. Sha Managing Partner Spring Creek Venture
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This lecture is part of a special series on Contemporary China hosted by Shorenstein APARC's Walter H. Shorenstein Forum.

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David Lampton George and Sadie Hyman Professor of China Studies and Director, China Studies Program Speaker Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
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