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15Jan2025 "Developments in China and Japan-China-U.S. Relations" Webinar event graphic featuring headshot photos of Akio Takahara, Thomas Fingar, and Kiyoteru Tsutsui

 

How stable is politics in today's China? Many observers inside and outside the country were stunned by the sudden dismissal in December of Miao Hua, the head of the powerful political work department of the PLA and a member of the Central Military Commission. Takahara will discuss the state of Chinese politics and look into what we can expect of China's response to the 2nd Trump Administration.

This webinar event is co-hosted by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Japan Program and the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco

 

Speaker:

square headshot photo of Akio Takahara

Akio Takahara is Distinguished Visiting Professor at the Tokyo Woman’s Christian University and former Professor of Contemporary Chinese Politics at the Graduate School of Law and Politics at The University of Tokyo. From April to July 2024, he is also serving as Senior Fellow of the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS). He received his DPhil in 1988 from Sussex University, and later spent several years as Visiting Scholar at the Consulate-General of Japan in Hong Kong, the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, Harvard University, Peking University, the Mercator Institute for China Studies, and the Australian National University. Before joining The University of Tokyo, he taught at J. F. Oberlin University and Rikkyo University. He served as President of the Japan Association for Asian Studies, and as Secretary General of the New Japan-China Friendship 21st Century Committee. Akio was Dean of the Graduate School of Public Policy at The University of Tokyo from 2018 to 2020, and Director of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development from 2020 to 2023. He currently serves as Senior Adjunct Fellow of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, Distinguished Research Fellow of the Japan Forum on International Relations, Senior Research Adviser of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, and Trustee of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. His publications in English include The Politics of Wage Policy in Post-Revolutionary China, (Macmillan, 1992), Japan-China Relations in the Modern Era, (co-authored, Routledge, 2017), and “How do smaller countries in the Indo-Pacific region proactively interact with China? An introduction”, Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, DOI: 10.1080/24761028.2024.2309439, 26 January 2024.

 

Discussant:

Thomas Fingar

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Moderator:

Square portrait photo of Kiyoteru Tsutsui

Kiyoteru Tsutsui is the Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor and Senior Fellow in Japanese Studies at Shorenstein APARC, the Director of the Japan Program and Deputy Director at APARC, a senior fellow of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Professor of Sociology, all at Stanford University. Tsutsui received his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Kyoto University and earned an additional master’s degree and Ph.D. from Stanford’s sociology department in 2002. Tsutsui’s research interests lie in political/comparative sociology, social movements, globalization, human rights, and Japanese society. His most recent publication, Human Rights and the State: The Power of Ideas and the Realities of International Politics (Iwanami Shinsho, 2022), was awarded the 2022 Ishibashi Tanzan Award and the 44th Suntory Prize for Arts and Sciences.

 

 

Kiyoteru Tsutsui

Online via Zoom Webinar

Akio Takahara Distinguished and Visiting Professor Main Speaker Tokyo Woman's Christian University

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
tom_fingar_vert.jpg PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

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I first learned about Sayama City, located in Saitama Prefecture, through its Sayama-cha—one of the three most famous teas in Japan. A thoughtful gift from an owner of a manufacturing company in Sayama City introduced me to this delightful tea, which quickly became a regular part of my daily life. Sayama’s vibrant tea culture, enriched by its lush plantations and lively festivals, reflects the city’s deep pride in this heritage. Never did I imagine that, a few years later, I would be working with a high school in this remarkable city.

In the spring of 2024, SPICE launched the Stanford e-Bunri course in partnership with Seibu Gakuen Bunri Junior and Senior High School (Seibu Bunri) in Sayama City. Under the leadership of the newly appointed principal, Dr. Pedro Marques, Seibu Bunri is dedicated to nurturing young Japanese leaders to be ready to thrive on the global stage. Principal Marques envisions the school as more than just a place for academic excellence; he sees it as a dynamic environment where students actively engage in their learning and tackle complex challenges. I was thrilled to contribute to this vision by bringing SPICE’s educational philosophy to Seibu Bunri by underscoring the importance of diverse perspectives, critical thinking, and innovation. Principal Marques commented:

In today’s rapidly changing world, education must go beyond the classroom and traditional academic boundaries. It is essential to provide students with real-world experiences that connect them deeply to the communities they live in and serve, while fostering their understanding and bonding with international communities. Partnerships like the one we have established with Stanford University’s SPICE program are critical to achieving this vision. They not only expose our students to global perspectives but also challenge them to apply their learning in meaningful ways that can make a difference locally and globally.

Modern education needs to equip students with the tools to navigate complexities and to build bridges between cultures, ideas, and communities. By integrating diverse topics such as diversity, women’s rights, and entrepreneurship into our curriculum, we aim to nurture empathetic leaders who are grounded in their heritage yet inspired to innovate and collaborate on a global scale.

This partnership is not just a program; it is a cornerstone of our mission to redefine education at Seibu Bunri. Through such initiatives, we are building a resilient community of learners and leaders who are prepared to face the challenges of tomorrow with confidence and a strong sense of purpose.


In September, we successfully concluded our inaugural Stanford e-Bunri course. Building on discussions with the school staff to address critical challenges in shaping a more inclusive, equitable, and innovative future in Japan, Stanford e-Bunri focused on three key topics: diversity, women’s rights, and entrepreneurship. Over the course of four months, 30 students participated in the virtual classrooms, completed reading and writing assignments, engaged in online discussions, and delivered group presentations on these topics.

Diversity

During our diversity-focused lessons, students were treated to lectures from Dr. Gary Mukai and Dr. Ignacio Ornelaz Rodriguez from Stanford University, focusing on diversity in the United States. Dr. Mukai explored the history of Japanese American experiences during World War II, while Dr. Ornelas shed light on the lives of Mexican workers through an overview of the Bracero Program. These topics, which represent significant yet often overlooked aspects of American history, provided students with valuable perspectives not typically covered in Japanese curricula.

The word “empathy” deepened my understanding of diversity. Both lecturers mentioned that empathy is really important in this diverse society; I felt that empathy will be the key point to building good relationships with people with different cultures and backgrounds.
—Rina Nishimori


In the last session of the diversity module, students considered the lessons learned about diversity in the United States and applied them to the issues in a Japanese context. They conducted research and delivered group presentations on various aspects of diversity, including race, gender, LGBTQ+ rights, socioeconomic status, disability, and age-related issues. These presentations offered valuable insights into the complex and multifaceted challenges surrounding diversity in Japanese society, encouraging students to recognize that diversity is not just a global concept but also deeply significant and relevant within Japan.

Women’s Rights

During the lessons on women’s rights, students learned from Dr. Mariko Yang-Yoshihara from Stanford University, who discussed the current state of STEAM education and her initiative to empower girls with STEAM education in Japan. Another lecture was given by Ms. Yukiko Kimura, former Founder and CEO at Genic Lab Inc. and Senior Product Manager at Amazon Web Services, who shared her personal journey as a female entrepreneur in Japan, including the challenges she faced and the resilience required to overcome them. Both sessions offered students a deeper understanding of the systemic and cultural barriers women encounter, while inspiring students to think critically about ways to foster equity.

Ms. Kimura’s quote made a lasting impression on me: “It is important to become the person you want to be, not the person others want you to be.” I will try to be who I want to be from now on, because limiting myself by other people’s expectations may change my life.—Seiji Yamakawa


In the final session of the women’s rights module, students researched gender-related issues and challenges in Japan and proposed solutions in group presentations. This exercise encouraged students to reflect on how they, too, could contribute to fostering greater gender equality in their own communities and beyond.

Entrepreneurship

The entrepreneurship module featured engaging and inspiring lectures from Mr. Kenji Niwa, Co-founder and CEO at Firstcard Inc., and Ms. Min Zhu, Co-founder and CTO at EnChannel Medical, both of whom shared their personal journeys and deep insights into the entrepreneurial mindset. Through their stories and expertise, the students gained a deeper understanding of the mindset needed to overcome challenges and failures, embrace innovation, and cultivate resilience—qualities that are essential not only for entrepreneurial success but also for thriving in any endeavor.

The lectures showcased inspiring stories of people who overcame obstacles to achieve their goals, highlighting the importance of resilience and continuous learning. I also realized that success is deeply personal, shaped by individual values rather than societal expectations. —Sora Ikeda


To conclude the entrepreneurship module and the entire course, students identified pressing social issues in Japan and proposed innovative solutions in a business pitch format. Their presentations received feedback from guest observer Mr. Christopher Chang, Strategic Advisor at Beenext Capital Management, providing students with valuable insights into real-world problem-solving. This interactive session not only encouraged creativity and critical thinking but also provided students with a glimpse into the practicalities of turning ideas into actionable solutions.

My experience working with Seibu Bunri and the students of the Stanford e-Bunri course has been both inspiring and rewarding. Through thought-provoking lectures, discussions, and hands-on projects, the students not only expanded their understanding of critical global topics but also delved deeply into examining key issues within their own society. This process challenged them to reflect on how they can actively contribute to creating positive changes.

I wish to express my heartfelt gratitude to my collaborators at Seibu Bunri for their amazing support and partnership. They are Dr. Pedro Marques, Mr. Toshiyuki Shijima, Ms. Tamaki Komaeda, Mr. Hiroshi Inoo, Mr. Joshua Moon, Mr. Opaon Cleo, Mr. Toshikazu Ishizaka, and Ms. Kayo Imanaga. I would also like to thank our guest lecturers who generously dedicated their time and expertise to speak for the Stanford e-Bunri course. Their contributions played a crucial role in bringing the course content to life, offering students a unique perspective on the topics of diversity, women’s rights, and entrepreneurship. Last but not least, I’d like to congratulate the dedicated students who participated in the course.

In closing, I have learned that Sayama-cha—compared to other tea plants—is characterized by its thick leaves. This is because the region’s cold climate sometimes causes frost in winter, making plants sometimes unable to survive without thick leaves. I am excited to see how the students will apply the insights and skills learned from Stanford e-Bunri to become resilient leaders who can thrive on the global stage despite inevitable “weather changes” in their lives.

Stanford e-Bunri is one of SPICE’s local student programs in Japan.

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Mariko Yang-Yoshihara Empowers Girls in Japan with STEAM Education

SPICE’s Yang-Yoshihara aims to level the playing field and raise self-efficacy for all genders.
Mariko Yang-Yoshihara Empowers Girls in Japan with STEAM Education
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Stanford e-Bunri students along with Opaon Cleo, Assistant Language Teacher, Seibu Bunri High School (back row, far left), Toshiyuki Shijima, Vice Principal, Seibu Bunri High School (back row, fourth from the left), Pedro Marques, Principal, Seibu Bunri Junior and Senior High School (back row, center), Joshua Moon, Head Teacher, Seibu Bunri Junior High School (back row, fifth from the right), Tamaki Komaeda, Vice Principal, Seibu Bunri Junior High School (back row, second from the right), Sora Ikeda, student honoree (first row, third from the left), Kazuaki Kumagai, student honoree (front row, center), Shio Nagoya, student honoree (front row, third from the right), and Meiko Kotani, Instructor (on the screen, right side).
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Instructor Meiko Kotani reflects on Stanford e-Bunri, SPICE’s collaboration with Seibu Gakuen Bunri Junior and Senior High School in Sayama City, Saitama Prefecture.

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My grandparents, who were immigrants from Hiroshima, Japan, were migrant farm workers and sharecroppers in California from the early 20th century, and they lived in many towns in California. The only other state that they lived in was Arizona when they were incarcerated by the U.S. government from 1942 to the end of World War II in 1945 in what were once called “relocation centers” and now usually referred to in U.S. history textbooks as “internment camps” for people of Japanese descent primarily from the West Coast. My parents, who were born in California and thus U.S. citizens, were also incarcerated. Because Japanese immigrants and their descendants played such a vital role in agriculture in states like California, the incarceration of approximately 120,000 people of Japanese descent—along with the military draft—caused a severe labor shortage in agriculture. These were two of the key reasons for the establishment of the Bracero Program in 1942. SPICE Consultant Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguezwho teaches at Willow Glen High School, San Jose Unified School District, as well as at Stanford University, noted:

The Bracero Program was a series of laws that allowed the United States to recruit temporary guest workers (braceros, lit. “individuals who work with their arms”) from Mexico. As the United States entered World War II, its agriculture and railroad industries witnessed a shortage of laborers due to the U.S. military draft and the forced removal of Japanese Americans from the West Coast of the United States. The United States and Mexico entered into legal agreements that would ultimately be known as the Bracero Program, which operated from 1942 to 1964. Braceros worked throughout the United States, but the largest concentration of braceros was employed in California. There were an estimated 4.5 million contracts signed by braceros over the 22-year period. Today a large proportion of the Mexican American population can trace its heritage to former braceros.

 

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As a child of farm laborers in the 1950s and 1960s, I worked side-by-side with braceros. My neighbors in San Jose were braceros. Braceros were either paid by the hour or compensated by the amount of crops that they harvested, known as piecework. The braceros’ punch cards usually had at least double the punches that mine had. As a child, I felt more Mexican than Japanese American. Thus, it was particularly meaningful for me to facilitate an event called “Legacies of the Bracero Program, 1942–1964,” during which nine former braceros were recognized by SPICE, FSI, and the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS). The event took place at Stanford University on February 27, 2014; photo above courtesy Rod Searcey. The event was conceptualized by Ornelas and organized by Ornelas and SPICE Event Coordinator Sabrina Ishimatsu. Featured speakers were former FSI Director Professor Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, former CLAS Director Professor Rodolfo Dirzo (the son of a bracero), and Ornelas. The year, 2014, marked the 50th anniversary since the end of the Bracero Program.

Ornelas has spent the last 14 years conducting research and memorializing braceros. In addition to the event described above, he has conducted numerous public history events with colleagues and was instrumental in the naming a 17-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 101 as the Bracero Memorial Highway and Monterey County’s recognition of braceros. The naming of the Bracero Memorial Highway—and more recently the installation of a cross—are memorials to a tragic accident in Chualar, Monterey County, that killed 32 braceros on September 17, 1963. On June 2, 2020, Ornelas spoke about the history of the Bracero Program and shared reflections on “Visualizing the Essential: Mexicans in the U.S. Agricultural Workforce” in a webinar attended by educators nationwide. Since December 31, 2024 marks the 60th anniversary of the end of the Bracero Program, I highly recommend the use of the recorded webinar in high school classrooms and colleges in the United States and Mexico. The webinar recording, along with a classroom-friendly discussion guide, can be accessed here. The webinar was co-sponsored with CLAS and facilitated by SPICE Instructional Designer Jonas Edman. Also, a talk by Ornelas in Monterey County last year inspired the development of a mural that was commissioned by Monterey County and will be featured in Chualar.

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My mother, who worked with braceros since shortly after her release from the incarceration camp in Arizona in 1945 until 1964, died this year. While clearing out her home, I decided to keep the comal—a flat griddle—that the braceros who lived next to me used to make tortillas. The braceros gave the comal to my mother before their return to Mexico, and my mother had saved it because she recalled—as I do, as well—the many times that the braceros made tortillas for me. More importantly, she had the highest respect for their work ethic. I used to walk regularly to the bracero home to enjoy tortillas; photo above circa 1957. As a 10-year-old in 1964, I remember the sadness that I felt when I said “adios” to my bracero co-workers and neighbors.

I think it’s important to recognize the critical contributions of the braceros not only to the U.S. economy—especially during World War II—but also to their continued contributions to the richness of U.S. history and society broadly through their descendants like Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez.

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Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez with his grandfather, a former bracero, and family, taken during a ceremony at Stanford University honoring braceros on February 27, 2014; photo courtesy Rod Searcey.
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December 31, 2024 marks the 60-year anniversary since Congress ended the Bracero Program.

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Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has reignited debates about the United States' role in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and democratic recession. The return of Trump to the White House will have profound implications for Asia. To assess the stakes for the region, APARC convened a panel of experts who weighed in on the potential risks and opportunities the second Trump administration’s policies may pose for Asian nations and how regional stakeholders look at their future with the United States. Another panel, organized by APARC’s China Program, focused on what’s ahead for U.S.-China relations.

High Stakes for the Asia-Pacific

APARC’s panel, The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections: High Stakes for Asia, examined how the return of Trump’s political ideology and the macroeconomic effects of his foreign policy will affect Asia.

“We are witnessing the solidification of Trumpism as an influential political ideology,” stated APARC and Korea Program Director Gi-Wook Shin at the opening of the discussion, “one that has begun to transcend traditional  American conservatism. Trumpism — marked by a blend of economic nationalism, nativism, and a strongman approach to leadership —could have a huge impact not only in American society but also on the liberal global order.”

According to Shin, Trump’s policies, particularly his focus on unilateralism and economic self-interest, could significantly alter the political and economic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, argued that Trump’s victory was no longer an anomaly but part of a larger trend of working-class voters shifting allegiance from the Democratic to the Republican Party. Fukuyama expressed concerns about Trump’s aggressive economic policies, including imposing broad tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, and warned that such policies could result in inflation, trade tensions, and long-term economic instability. In addition, he asserted that Trump’s reluctance to engage in foreign conflicts could undermine the United States’ commitments to security alliances, particularly in Asia.

APARC Deputy Director and Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui emphasized the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s policies, noting that Trump’s "America First" approach could further erode the international liberal order. He suggested that Japan would face significant challenges navigating the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policies. According to Tsutsui, “There might be greater pressure to line up with the United States in dealing with China economically, which would  put a great deal of strain on the Japanese economy.” Such an alignment might also muddle Japan’s own diplomatic and security interests.

Gita Wirjawan, a visiting scholar with Stanford's Precourt Institute for Energy and former visiting scholar at APARC, focused on the stakes for Southeast Asia. Wirjawan argued that Trump’s economic policies, such as protectionism and prioritizing economic growth over democratic principles, could embolden right-wing populist movements in Southeast Asia. He suggested that parts of Southeast Asia could be a natural beneficiary of a reallocation of financial capital from the U.S. as companies diversify supply chains by establishing operations outside China in response to Trump’s planned tariffs. Yet, growing economic inequality in Southeast Asia, particularly in urban areas, could fuel the rise of similar nationalist policies, undermining efforts to promote inclusive, democratic development.

Shin highlighted the challenges South Korea might face under a second Trump presidency. Trump will likely demand higher defense payments from South Korea, potentially straining the U.S.-ROK alliance. This could put President Yoon in a tough spot, especially as trilateral U.S.-Japan-Korea cooperation has been progressing well but faces uncertainty. Economically, South Korean firms may struggle if U.S. policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are rolled back, as subsidies were crucial for their investments in the U.S. On North Korea, Shin noted that Trump may resume summit diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, leaving South Korea sidelined and potentially sparking an arms race in Northeast Asia. 

The panelists all emphasized that Asia, with its diverse political landscapes, would need to navigate a new era of economic nationalism and geopolitical unpredictability, with potential challenges to economic stability and democratic norms.

A Focus on U.S.-China Relations 

The second panel, "Crossroads of Power: U.S.-China Relations in a New Administration," focused specifically on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations in the wake of the election. Moderated by APARC China Program Director Jean Oi, the discussion featured Shorenstein APARC Fellow Thomas Fingar, and Peking University's Yu Tiejun, the APARC's China Policy Fellow during fall 2024. The panelists analyzed the potential trade, security, and diplomacy shifts between the two global superpowers, particularly in light of Washington's bipartisan consensus on China. 

Central to the discussion was the continuity of U.S. policy toward China under the first Trump administration and the Biden administration. Examples of this continuity included recent tariff increases on Chinese imports, a new U.S. Department of the Treasury program to screen U.S. outbound foreign investments in key sectors, and tighter export controls on critical technologies like quantum computing and advanced semiconductors. The panelists explored the economic and strategic ramifications, noting that these policies could disrupt existing trade patterns. 

Another area of concern was China’s uneven implementation of the 2020 Phase One  trade deal it negotiated with the U.S., in which China had committed to domestic reforms and $200 billion of additional U.S. imports. This failure could buttress the new administration’s plan to increase tariffs, complicating diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing. Fingar noted that while China has made efforts to diversify its supply chains, these changes might not be enough to shield it from the effects of U.S. economic policies, which could include escalating tariffs or additional restrictions on Chinese exports. 

The conversation also touched on broader geopolitical considerations, particularly concerning China’s role in the ongoing war in Ukraine. The panelists discussed the potential for cooperation or de-escalation in U.S.-China relations, with China’s positioning on the war serving as both a point of contention and a possible avenue for diplomatic engagement. 

Underscoring the deepening complexities in U.S.-China relations post-election, the panelists highlighted the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, particularly regarding the role of people-to-people exchanges in fostering mutual understanding.

Both events emphasized the multifaceted consequences of Trump’s return to power for Asia and the global international order. While the discussions highlighted the challenges posed by the rise of economic nationalism, trade tensions, and shifting security priorities, they also pointed to potential areas of cooperation and the evolving dynamics of global diplomacy.


In the Media


From Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro:

What a Second Trump Term Means for the World
OnPoint – WBUR, Nov 12 (interview)

Race to the White House: How the US Election Will Impact Foreign Policy
UBS Circle One, October 23 (interview)

From Visiting Scholar Michael Beeman:

On Korea-U.S. Economic Cooperation in the Era of Walking Out
Yonhap News, Nov 20 (featured)

Trump Looking for Trade 'Reset' with Most Countries: Ex-USTR Official
Nikkei, Nov 16 (interview)

How Southeast Asia Can Weather the Trump Trade Typhoon
The Economist, Nov 14 (quoted)

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APARC recently hosted two panels to consider what a second Trump presidency might mean for economic, security, and political dynamics across Asia and U.S. relations with Asian nations.

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Natalie Montecino
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Nestled along the coast of Kumamoto Prefecture in southern Japan, the city of Minamata is a remarkable place in many ways. This September, I had the privilege of visiting for the first time to celebrate the launch of the Stanford e-Minamata Program, which is made possible by the support of the Minamata Municipal Government. As my trip came to an end, one word echoed in my mind: resilience.

A brief search into Minamata’s history reveals a poignant chapter from the 1950s and 60s, when the city became synonymous with Minamata disease—a devastating neurological condition caused by mercury poisoning due to industrial wastewater pollution from a group called Chisso Corporation. Visiting the Minamata Disease Municipal Museum with Mr. Hiroki Hara, Director General of the General Affairs Planning Department at Minamata City Hall, and Mr. Minoru Koga, Director General of the Minamata Environmental Academia, I gained a deeper understanding of the community’s struggles. What struck me most, however, was how Minamata has reclaimed this painful history, transforming it into a source of strength and a commitment to protecting human and environmental well-being.

Today, Minamata is a leader in sustainability, recognized by the Japanese government as an “SDGs Future City” in 2020. The launch of the Stanford e-Minamata Program, a new SPICE initiative in collaboration with Minamata High School, marks a pivotal step forward in the city’s ongoing revitalization efforts. Rooted in Minamata’s values of sustainability and local innovation, the program focuses on three key themes: the environment, emerging technologies, and U.S.–Japan relations. These themes aim to equip the next generation of leaders with the tools they need to address critical global challenges. 

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A student from Minamata High School providing opening remarks; photo courtesy Minamata High School. 

At the opening ceremony, Minamata City Mayor Toshiharu Takaoka shared words of inspiration with the students:

This is a very remarkable collaboration between Minamata City, located in the small island nation of Japan, and Stanford University, located in the state of California in the United States. We hope this course will share the international outlook and the atmosphere of a top American university with high school students, and contribute to the development of the next generation of Minamata City’s human resources.


For me, launching this program in Minamata is particularly meaningful. As the child of parents from rural Louisiana and the second person in my family to travel outside the United States, I often sought opportunities to experience the world as a young person, but didn’t know where to start. A life-changing moment came at age 16 when I received a scholarship to live with a host family in Hiroshima for six weeks. Speaking no Japanese and having never flown alone, I truly embraced the unknown. That experience profoundly shaped my life, leading me to minor in Japanese during my university years, study abroad at Kansai Gaidai University, and later complete a Fulbright research grant in Okayama Prefecture focused on rural revitalization.

Working with the students of Minamata High School now feels like coming full circle. Their curiosity and determination to learn about the world remind me of my own journey. Providing rural students with opportunities to engage with global challenges is more critical than ever, and I am inspired by their potential to lead.

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to Mayor Takaoka, Mr. Hiroki Hara, Dr. Minoru Koga, Secretary General Kayo Fuchigami, Principal Yasunori Takaki, Vice Principal Fumiko Niibu, Planning Manager Saho Yagyu, and many others whose tireless efforts brought the Stanford e-Minamata Program to life. It is an incredible honor to support this initiative, and I look forward to seeing how it will continue to inspire and empower the next generation of Minamata leaders.

Stanford e-Minamata is one of SPICE’s local student programs in Japan.

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Top Students in SPICE’s 2023–2024 Regional Programs in Japan Are Recognized

Congratulations to the 2023–2024 student honorees from Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Kagoshima, Kawasaki, Kobe, Oita, Tottori, and Wakayama.
Top Students in SPICE’s 2023–2024 Regional Programs in Japan Are Recognized
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Opening Ceremony at Minamata High School; photo courtesy Minamata High School.
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SPICE instructor Natalie Montecino reflects on her recent visit to Minamata City, Kumamoto Prefecture.

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Shorenstein APARC's annual report for the academic year 2023-24 is now available.

Learn about the research, publications, and events produced by the Center and its programs over the last academic year. Read the feature sections, which look at the historic meeting at Stanford between the leaders of Korea and Japan and the launch of the Center's new Taiwan Program; learn about the research our faculty and postdoctoral fellows engaged in, including a study on China's integration of urban-rural health insurance and the policy work done by the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL); and catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, publications, and policy outreach. Download your copy or read it online below.

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Gary Mukai
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FC Imabari is a soccer team in Imabari City, Ehime Prefecture. “FC” stands for “football club.” Takeshi Okada—a former soccer player and the former head coach of the Japan National Team who led the Japan men’s national soccer team to its first-ever World Cup appearance in 1998—is the owner of FC Imabari and Masafumi Yano is the Chief Operating Officer. During my first visit to Imabari City in March 2024, I was invited to watch an FC Imabari game and met with Okada, Yano, and others affiliated with FC Imabari. During the game and while strolling around Imabari City, I could sense the excitement that the team has brought to the city. FC Imabari High School, a private school in Imabari, was conceptualized by Okada and enrolled its inaugural classes this year. In a May 13, 2023 article, “Ehime: Ex Japan Soccer Coach Okada Tackles New Challenge in Field of Education,” in The Yomiuri Shimbun, he stated, “I want to foster autonomy and independence that survive an era that humanity has never experienced.” (Photo of Takeshi Okada below; courtesy FC Imabari.)

image of SPICE director Gary Mukai and Principle Takashi Okada at FC Imabari


With Okada’s educational priorities in mind, FC Imabari Advisor Yukari Hara took the initiative to discuss the possible development of Stanford e-FC Imabari to support the mission of FC Imabari High School. Stanford e-FC Imabari was launched in fall 2024 to help encourage students at FC Imabari High School and from three public schools in Imabari City to not only consider the importance of autonomy and independence but also their roles in the local community and the world at large. Stanford e-FC Imabari focuses on the three key themes of (1) diversity, equity, & inclusion (DEI); (2) entrepreneurship; and (3) community building. During conversations with FC Imabari High School teachers Nozomi Echigo (social studies) and Yoshikazu Nakashima (English), I came to highly value the importance that the FC Imabari teachers place upon engaging students through their multiple intelligences, including kinesthetic, artistic, musical, interpersonal, and intrapersonal intelligences as well as linguistic and quantitative intelligences. I have had the privilege of visiting many schools in Japan, and FC Imabari High School is the only high school that I have visited that was inspired by how lessons—like teamwork, collegiality, and cooperation—in team sports such as soccer are critical to the education of youth.

Stanford e-FC Imabari is taught by SPICE instructor Alison Keiko Harsch, who used to be an Assistant Language Teacher (ALT) on the Japan Exchange and Teaching (JET) Program in Kagawa Prefecture, a neighboring prefecture to Ehime Prefecture on Shikoku, one of the four main islands of Japan. Harsch will be returning to Shikoku later this year to make her first visit to FC Imabari High School. She reflected,

My years as an ALT on Shikoku significantly shifted the course of my life. It was in Shikoku that I fell in love with teaching, and in particular became passionate about engaging students in rural areas of Japan. The opportunity to work with students through Stanford e-FC Imabari has been hugely rewarding as it brings my work full circle back to my second home, Shikoku. It is an honor to contribute to the mission of FC Imabari High School.


During a recent visit to Imabari City on October 7 and 8, 2024, I had the opportunity to meet Stanford e-FC Imabari students not only at FC Imabari High School (Principal Shota Tsuji) but also at the three public high schools that have students who are participating in Stanford e-FC Imabari. These public high schools include Imabari West High School (Principal Teruo Koike), Imabari West High School, Hakata Branch (Branch Principal Hiroki Yano), and Imabari East High School (Principal Hiroyasu Watanabe). SPICE and FC Imabari High School are grateful to Ehime Prefecture’s Board of Education for its support of the engagement of these three public schools. Through my four meetings with students, I could see the bonds that have already developed between the four schools.

Principal Tsuji noted that “Through Stanford e-FC Imabari, we hope to not only provide unique learning opportunities for FC Imabari High School but also to build synergy between our school and local public schools. As the FC Imabari soccer team has strengthened our sense of community in Imabari, I would like to see greater community building between FC Imabari High School and local public schools.” Also, Hinako Tamai, English teacher at Imabari West High School, Hakata Branch, commented, “Being on a remote island, Hakata Island, in the Inland Sea, I feel fortunate that our students have this opportunity to work with Stanford University. Hakata Island now not only has physical bridges with Shikoku but also intellectual bridges with Stanford University and other schools in Imabari City.”

SPICE looks forward to continuing its work with Stanford e-FC Imabari to help cultivate students’ autonomy and independence—Mr. Okada’s goal—and underscore the importance of their roles in the local community and the world at large.

Importantly, SPICE would like thank Yoshihisa Ozasa, the founder and Chairman of Link & Motivation, Inc., for generously providing the necessary funding to make Stanford e-FC Imabari possible. 

Stanford e-FC Imabari is one of SPICE’s local student programs in Japan.

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Stanford e-FC Imabari students with Instructor Alison Harsch and FC Imabari High School staff and advisors; courtesy FC Imabari High School.
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SPICE’s Alison Harsch offers a class with the newly established FC Imabari High School in Imabari City, Ehime Prefecture.

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Stanford, Calif. – August 13, 2024 – America in One Room: The Youth Vote today announced the results of its Deliberative Poll, revealing how first-time voters feel about key issues driving the 2024 Presidential Election: energy and the environment; the economy, AI, and taxes; health care; and democracy and elections, after deliberating with their peers.

A nationally representative sample of 430 first-time voters answered a questionnaire about public policy and voting intention before and after deliberating on the topics. America in One Room: The Youth Vote is a collaboration between Close Up Foundation, the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, the Generation Lab, Helena, and the Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making at the University of Southern California. Deliberative Polling® is a mechanism through which citizens can address complex issues and the trade-offs they pose in an environment curated for civil and respectful conversation across party lines.

James Fishkin, Director of the Stanford Deliberative Democracy Lab, noted: “These young voters came from all over the country, red states and blue states, urban and rural. They learned what the rest of their generation was thinking, connecting across their social media enclaves and political divisions. They listened to each other and determined what they really thought about the issues and the candidates. And they emerged with greater mutual respect for those they still disagreed with. It gave us all a glimpse of the American public opinion of the future.”

The results show dramatic changes in perspectives after deliberation on issues like contraceptive access, increasing the federal minimum wage, repealing the Affordable Care Act, and more. Some of the movements were more progressive, some more conservative. Notable results from America in One Room: The Youth Vote, include:

On energy and the environment, the participants were strongly committed to concerted climate action and, interestingly, became more supportive of American energy independence following the deliberations.

  • Following deliberation, there was overwhelming support for the US reaching net zero by 2050, increasing government funding for clean energy technologies and battery storage solutions, and new generation nuclear energy
  • At the same time, opposition to banning the sale of new gas and diesel cars also increased across the board after deliberation, from 45% to 59%


Surprisingly, participants’ support for traditionally progressive policies related to the economy, AI, and taxes decreased in many cases.

  • Support for increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 dropped 14 points from 62% to 48%
  • Support for the government covering the cost of college tuition at public universities for all students who could not otherwise afford it decreased from 66% to 56%
  • Support for the federal government’s role in preventing the sale or use of biased algorithms increased from 48.6% to 54.5%


In an election year when health care, and abortion access in particular, have the potential to swing outcomes, results show young people across all political identifications support reproductive health care access and traditionally progressive health care policies.

The proposal that “Congress should pass a nationwide ban on medication abortion” attracted supermajority opposition, rising from 78% to 80% after deliberation

  • The majority of Republicans (51%) also came to oppose a national medication abortion ban


Opposition to repealing the Affordable Care Act jumped 20 points, from 52% to 72%

While many portray Gen Z as losing faith in democratic institutions, when polled on democracy and elections following deliberation, the results showed notable increases in satisfaction with democracy. Participants also showed movement on proposals around voting rights and provided a snapshot of support for the Trump and Harris candidacies.

When asked “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way democracy is working in the U.S.” overall satisfaction increased an impressive 29 points – from 29% to 58%

  • Republicans increased dramatically from 38% to 72%, Independents increased from 24% to 40%, and Democrats increased from 26% to 52%


The proposal to “Restore voting rights to citizens with felony convictions who are not incarcerated” increased overall by a dramatic 19 points from 61% to 80%.

  • This was a bi-partisan movement, with Republicans specifically increasing by 17 points from minority to majority support (48% to 65%).


At the end of the event, Vice President Kamala Harris was the choice of 53% of the deliberators, former President Donald Trump was the choice of 27% of the deliberators, and 6% said they would vote for a third party.

“This historic event has something to teach us all. When we take the time to talk to and learn from people with different backgrounds and worldviews, we can build our own confidence in democracy and find agreement in the most unexpected of places,” said Close Up President Mia Charity. “For more than 50 years, Close Up’s work has been dedicated to empowering young people to become engaged citizens. We are excited to partner with Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab this fall to host national deliberations and continue Close Up’s efforts to expand programs and professional development that bring a culture of deliberative dialogue to schools across the country.”

“Everyone likes to speak for young people, but rarely do young people get to speak for themselves,” said Cyrus Beschloss, Founder of Generation Lab. “As we hurtle towards a ground-shaking election, America will begin talking about the ‘youth vote.’ Rather than grab for the stereotype du jour about ‘Gen-Z,’ we must look to serious research like this study as we make decisions and policies for the next generation in America.”

“This event highlighted Gen Z’s acute awareness of AI’s rapid evolution and along with it, significant new ethical challenges,” said Nathanael Fast, Director of the Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making at the USC Marshall School of Business. “Students demonstrated a strong belief that government should play a key role in ensuring AI safety, and their unique perspective on AI and social media reinforce the urgent need to make our tech ecosystem more transparent, inclusive, and democratic.” He also noted, “Participants returned home filled with confidence to drive change within their communities and a renewed trust that public officials value their perspectives. Together, these are profound shifts that pave the way for our country’s future leadership.”

“America in One Room represents the true ‘will of the people,’ and we are working toward a future where this deliberative process plays a much bigger role in how the US and other democracies make decisions,” said Henry Elkus, founder and CEO of Helena, a global problem-solving organization. “Gen Z is often misunderstood as nihilistic and unwilling to compromise, and America in One Room: The Youth Vote showed that couldn’t be further from the truth. It was incredibly inspiring to watch these young, first-time voters disrupt that narrative, discuss complex issues with nuance regardless of their political position, and leave feeling optimistic that they can shape the future.”

The America in One Room project was first deployed in 2019, bringing a representative microcosm of the entire American electorate together in the same location for the first time. As in other Deliberative Polls, the discussions proceeded in moderated small groups with questions from the small groups directed at experts in plenary sessions who answered the participants’ questions. The small group and plenary sessions alternated throughout the weekend.

The executive summary and full results of America in One Room: The Youth Vote’s results are available here. To learn more, visit the America in One Room site.

About America in One Room: The Youth Vote

A1R:TYV is a collaboration between Close Up Foundation, the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, the Generation Lab, Helena, and the Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making at the University of Southern California. Through Deliberative Polling, the experiment provides a unique opportunity to combine the qualitative richness of focus groups and the statistical representativeness of good survey research to meaningfully pulse a demographic that is frequently talked about, but rarely talked to, as they prepare for a historic presidential election.

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A voter casts their ballot in the Kentucky Primary Elections at Central High School on May 16, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky.
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New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy

"America in One Room: Democratic Reform" polled participants before and after deliberation to gauge their opinions on democratic reform initiatives, including voter access and voting protections, non-partisan election administration, protecting against election interference, Supreme Court reform, and more. The results show many significant changes toward bipartisan agreement, even on the most contentious issues.
New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy
Climate change activists march down a street carrying banners and signs.
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Together For Our Planet: Americans are More Aligned on Taking Action on Climate Change than Expected

New data from the Center for Deliberative Democracy suggests that when given the opportunity to discuss climate change in a substantive way, the majority of Americans are open to taking proactive measures to address the global climate crisis.
Together For Our Planet: Americans are More Aligned on Taking Action on Climate Change than Expected
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America in One Room: The Youth Vote Courtesy of Close Up Foundation via X
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Innovative project brings together first-ever representative sample of first-time voters from across the country to debate the key issues of our time.

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Khushmita Dhabhai
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The third of four panels of the “America Votes 2024” series examined the tension surrounding diversity and inclusion in the upcoming election. Co-moderated by CDDRL’s Mosbacher Director Kathryn Stoner and Michael Tomz, the William Bennett Munro Professor in Political Science and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanford University, the panel featured Stanford scholars Hakeem JeffersonDidi KuoJonathan Rodden, and Anna Grzymala-Busse. The “America Votes 2024” series is co-organized by CDDRL, the Hoover Institution’s Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, and the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences.

Race and the Pursuit of Multiracial Democracy


Hakeem Jefferson kicked off the discussion with a presentation on race's role in American politics, especially during the 2024 election season. He argued against perspectives that minimize the salience of this issue, noting that the January 6 insurrection was a stark example of the influence of White identity politics on electoral dynamics. Jefferson, an assistant professor of political science and a CDDRL affiliated faculty, underscored the continued prevalence of racial appeals and overt racism in political messaging, which significantly affects public perception and voter behavior. He also examined Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, emphasizing the complexities of identity politics and the challenges in representing diverse coalitions.

In his closing remarks, Jefferson tackled the narrative surrounding Black male voters’ declining support, advocating for a nuanced understanding of political behavior within this demographic. He emphasized that the United States is at a crossroads, needing to embrace the potential for a multiracial democracy to avoid losing its democratic identity.

Hakeem Jefferson presented on "Race and 2024: The Fight for Multiracial Democracy."
Hakeem Jefferson presented on "Race and 2024: The Fight for Multiracial Democracy." | Nora Sulots

The Paradox of Political Parties


Didi Kuo, a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), explored the challenges facing political parties in the United States. While parties seem strong due to the current state of polarization and surge in fundraising, they struggle with selecting candidates and managing extremist views, which has contributed to a decline in public trust. Historically, political parties acted as intermediaries, linking societal demands to political representation. However, the decline in support for mainstream parties and the rise of anti-system challengers reveal a troubling gap in responsiveness to critical issues.

Kuo noted that parties are transforming from grassroots organizations into professional campaign entities focused on fundraising, weakening their ties to the public, especially working-class voters. She mentioned that reforms like nonpartisan primaries reflect widespread dissatisfaction with how parties choose candidates. As nonparty actors assume traditional party functions, the future dynamics of political parties remain uncertain. Kuo called for parties to rebuild trust and re-engage with constituents to maintain their vital role in democracy.

Didi Kuo presented on "The State of the Parties and Political Reforms."
Didi Kuo presented on "The State of the Parties and Political Reforms." | Nora Sulots

Challenging Assumptions of Political Polarization


Professor of Political Science Jonathan Rodden challenged the prevailing belief that American political parties have become more homogenous. He argued that both the Democratic and Republican parties are becoming more diverse, complicating the narrative of ideological sameness. While contemporary politics often focuses on a single dimension of conflict, Rodden posited that American parties are increasingly varied in race, education, religion, and income.

Rodden explained that this growing diversity contributes to rising affective polarization, where animosity toward the opposing party intensifies. With party members holding a broader range of opinions, leaders face challenges in proposing policies that appeal to all constituents. This often leads to strategies that demonize the opposing party by emphasizing its extreme members, further deepening voter divides. Rodden's analysis illustrates that both parties are evolving into coalitions with diverse interests, inviting a reevaluation of political polarization in the U.S. 

Jonathan Rodden presented on "Homogeneous Tribes?"
Jonathan Rodden presented on "Homogeneous Tribes?" | Nora Sulots

Illiberal Populism: Patterns of Success and Failure


Putting the United States in comparative perspective, Professor of Political Science Anna Grzymala-Busse examined illiberal populism in Europe, focusing on why some populist leaders lose power despite initial successes. She defined illiberal populism as framing elites as corrupt while promoting an exclusivist concept of "the people." While populists can mobilize voter dissatisfaction, recent electoral defeats in Poland and the Czech Republic and anticipated losses in France highlight the vulnerabilities of such movements.

Grzymala-Busse, a senior fellow at FSI, where she serves as the director of The Europe Center, identified factors contributing to these populist setbacks. She noted that high voter turnout, especially among younger voters, can legitimize democratic processes and counter populist influence. Additionally, elite responses, such as isolating populists, have often proven more effective than attempts to co-opt their rhetoric. Lastly, she emphasized that populists frequently prioritize consolidating power over addressing core societal issues, leading to disillusionment among supporters. These dynamics illustrate the limitations of populist strategies and provide valuable lessons for democracies facing similar challenges.

Anna Grzymala-Busse presented on "How Illiberal Populists Lose: Lessons from Europe."
Anna Grzymala-Busse presented on "How Illiberal Populists Lose: Lessons from Europe." | Nora Sulots

The final event in our series will take place post-election on Tuesday, November 12, from 10:00 to 11:30 am on Zoom. You can register for that event here and catch up on previous sessions on the America Votes 2024 webpage.

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America Vote 2024 Part 1 panel with Kathryn Stoner, Beatriz Magaloni, Nate Persily, and Shanto Iyengar
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“America Votes” in An Age of Polarization and Democratic Backsliding

The first of four panels of the “America Votes 2024: Stanford Scholars on the Election’s Most Critical Questions” series examined the changing political and global landscape shaping the upcoming U.S. presidential and congressional elections.
“America Votes” in An Age of Polarization and Democratic Backsliding
Mike Tomz, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Justin Grimmer, Larry Diamond answer questions in the second "America Votes 2024" panel.
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America Votes 2024, Part 2: Limits of Forecasting, Declining Trust, and Combating Polarization

Moderated by Michael Tomz, the William Bennett Munro Professor in Political Science and Chair of Stanford’s Department of Political Science, the second panel in our series featured Stanford scholars Brandice Canes-Wrone, Justin Grimmer, and Larry Diamond, each drawing on their research to address the complexities shaping the 2024 election.
America Votes 2024, Part 2: Limits of Forecasting, Declining Trust, and Combating Polarization
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Stanford Scholars Discuss What’s at Stake in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

In a panel moderated by Didi Kuo, Bruce Cain, Hakeem Jefferson, and Brandice Canes-Wrone discussed the structural features of American democracy and addressed the issues, strategies, and stakes central to November’s race.
Stanford Scholars Discuss What’s at Stake in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
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Hakeem Jefferson, Didi Kuo, Jonathan Rodden, and Anna Grzymala-Busse
Hakeem Jefferson, Didi Kuo, Jonathan Rodden, and Anna Grzymala-Busse answer questions from the audience in the third installment of our "America Votes 2024" series.
Nora Sulots
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The third of four panels of the “America Votes 2024” series examined the tension surrounding diversity and inclusion in the upcoming election. The panel featured Stanford scholars Hakeem Jefferson, Didi Kuo, Jonathan Rodden, and Anna Grzymala-Busse.

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A warming planet. Backsliding in democracy at home and abroad. Competition with China. And active war in Europe. Broadening conflicts in the Middle East.

The world today is facing no shortage of overlapping, multilateral challenges. At a recent panel titled, “Global Threats Today: What's At Stake and What We Can Do About It,” scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) had an opportunity to delve deeper into what the data says about how these global threats are evolving, and how we should be thinking about how to address them.

The discussion, which was held as part of Stanford University's 2024 Reunion and Homecoming weekend, was moderated by Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute, and featured Marshall Burke, Didi Kuo, Amichai Magen, Oriana Skylar Mastro, and Steven Pifer.

In the highlights below, each scholar shares what they wish people understood better about climate change, the war in Ukraine and Russia's aggression, China's strategy for building power, the health of American democracy, and how the fighting between Israel and Hamas fits into the geopolitical struggle between democracies and autocracies.

Their full conversation can be heard on the World Class podcast, and the panel can be watched in its entirety on YouTube.
 

Follow the link for a full transcript of "Global Threats Today: The 2024 Edition."


Illiberal Actors Are on the Move  |  Amichai Magen


Around the world, we are seeing a new axis of influence coalescing. Some have called it the "axis of misery" or the "axis of resistance." It is composed of Russia and Iran and North Korea, with a lot of Chinese involvement as well. It is transforming our international system in unbelievable ways. It is united by the desire to dismantle the liberal international order, and we're starting to see the nature and the interconnectivity of this new axis of chaos much more clearly. 

You see North Korean soldiers fighting for Putin in Ukraine. You see Putin helping the Houthis attack international Western shipping in Yemen. We see North Korean tunnel technology turn up in Lebanon with Hezbollah and then with Hamas in Gaza. The interconnectivity is something that we really need to know much more about.

Historically, emperors, kings, dukes, used to spend 50% of their resources on preparing for war or waging war. But in the post-Second World War era, we built a critical norm that we've called the liberal international order. And the miracle of the liberal international order is that we've managed to take global averages of defense spending from about 50% to a global average of about 7%. And the resulting surplus wealth has allowed us to invest in education, health, and scientific discovery.

What is at stake now is the possibility of a return of a norm where states are destroyed and disappear. And we have currently three states in the international system, at the very least — Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan — that are at risk of annihilation. To that end, we must articulate a positive strategic vision for the Middle East that will strive towards a two state solution, that would give the Palestinian people the dignity and the freedom that they deserve alongside a safe and secure Israel, and that will leverage the new spirit of cooperation that exists in the Middle East.

If we allow the norm of the non-disappearance of state to erode and collapse, we will go back to the law of the jungle, where we will have to spend so much more money on the wrong things. That is what is at stake in Ukraine, in the Middle East, and with Taiwan.
 

Amichai Magen

Amichai Magen

Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies at the Freeman Spogli Institute
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Challenges to Democracy Come From Within |  Didi Kuo


Many people think that the threat to democracy comes from outside our borders, particularly from countries like Russia and China that are asserting themselves in new and aggressive ways.

But the real threat to democracies that we're seeing across the globe is coming from within. Leaders come to power through democratic means, but then they begin to erode power from within. They attack the electoral system and the process of democratic elections, and they take power from other branches of government and aggregate it to themselves within the office of the executive. 

The good news is there are examples of countries like France, Brazil, and Poland where illiberal leaders have been stopped by pro-democracy coalitions of people who came together. These coalitions don't necessarily agree with each other politically, but they've come together and adapted in order to foreclose on these anti-democratic forces. 

That flexibility and adaptability is the reason democracies succeed. We see this over and over again in the the United States. When our institutions have become out of date, we've changed them. We extended suffrage, first to Black Americans who were formerly enslaved, then to women, then to Native Americans. We eliminating poll taxes and rethought what it means to have a multiracial democracy. We have a long track record of making changes.

Today in 2024, some of our democratic institutions are antiquated and don't reflect our contemporary values. This is a moment where we should lean into that flexible strength of democracy and think about institutional reforms that will both strengthen our system against illiberal creep and help us better achieve the ideals that we aspiring to as a people.
 

Didi Kuo

Didi Kuo

Center Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Ukraine Is Not Fated to Lose |  Steven Pifer


There's a narrative that's taking place that Russia is winning the war, Ukraine is losing, and it's only a matter of time. And it is true that Russia has captured a bit more territory than they occupied at the start of the year. But they've only achieved that at enormous cost.

As of September, the Pentagon says Russia had lost 600,000 dead and wounded soldiers. To put that in context, in February of 2022 when this major invasion began, the total Russian military — not just the army, but the total Russian military — was 1.1 million people. And the British Ministry of Defense earlier this week assessed that Russia now is losing 1,200 soldiers killed or severely wounded per day. You have to ask how long that's sustainable.

When I talk to Ukrainians, they still regard this war as existential. They're very determined to win, and we need to do a better job of supporting that. A stable and secure Europe is vital to America's national security interests, and you're not going to have a stable and secure Europe unless there's a stable and secure Ukraine. So we need to both provide them the weapons they need and relieve some of the restrictions we currently have and allow the Ukrainians to use those weapons to strike military targets in Russia.

Because we have to ask ourselves: what does an emboldened Vladimir Putin do if he wins in Ukraine? I don't think his ambitions end with Ukraine, perhaps not even with the post-Soviet space. There's going to be a much darker Russian threat hovering over Europe if Putin wins. So let's not count the Ukrainians out.
 

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Steven Pifer

Affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and The Europe Center
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China Isn't Going Away Anytime Soon  |  Oriana Skylar Mastro


There is a lot of discussion right now about the fact that the economy in China is slowing down and its demography is undergoing significant changes. What I'm here to tell you is that the challenge of China is not over, and is not going to be over any time soon. China has built power in a different way than the United States, and we have to reassess how we understand that power if we want to effectively deter, blunt, and block them from acting out in ways that threaten our partners and allies.

Since the 1990s, China has developed a significant amount of political, economic, and military power. They've gone from having an economy smaller than France’s  to the second largest in the world. They've gone from not being involved in international institutions to a great degree, not even having diplomatic relations with major countries like South Korea, to now having stronger and greater diplomatic networks, especially in Asia, than the United States.

What we really need to understand is that the U.S.-China competition is not about the United States or about China; it's about the rest of the world, and how the rest of the world sees us and how China interacts with us. The balance of power is shifting, and we have to be a lot smarter and a lot faster if we want to make sure it shifts in favor of our interests.

The United States hasn't had a comprehensive strategy towards the developing world in a long time. And we are running out of time to get that balance right in Asia. We don't have the right stuff. We don't have it in the right numbers, and it's not in the right place. Some of this is about deterring war over Taiwan, but it's also about generally maintaining peace and stability in Asia.
 

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Oriana Skylar Mastro

FSI Center Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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We're Doing Better (But Not Enough) on Climate Change |  Marshall Burke


Many people don't recognize how much progress we're actually making on climate issues. Emissions have fallen by 20% since 2005. We're actually speeding up the amount of substantial progress being made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and dealing with the core climate change problem, which is the human emission of greenhouse gasses.

In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act and the subsequent implementation of various rules the Biden administration has championed has given a huge boost in transitioning our economy to greener energy technologies, transportation technologies, and other kinds of infrastructure. We're moving a lot of cash to get that done, and the president is trying to get as much of it out the door as he can before his term ends.

Globally, the progress has been less rapid. Emissions are roughly flat. But overall, we're still making progress. I co-teach an undergraduate class on climate change, and we've had to update our slides on how much warming we're expecting over the next century. We thought it was going to be four degrees Celsius. Now we think it's going to be something between two and three degrees Celsius.

But the flip side of that is that we're still going to get warming of two to three degrees Celsius. We're already experiencing warming of about a degree Celsius, which is about two degrees Fahrenheit, and it's projected that we're going to get another three to five degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. That is a lot of warming, and we are not prepared to deal with it. We need to do much more on mitigation and much more on adaptation if we're going to meet the realities of living in a changing climate.

So we've had progress on the one hand, but there's still a lot of work left to do in the coming decades.
 

Marshall Burke

Marshall Burke

Deputy Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment
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At a panel during Stanford's 2024 Reunion weekend, scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies shared what their research says about climate change, global democracy, Russia and Ukraine, China, and the Middle East.

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