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"America, born with the aspiration of becoming “a city on a hill,” faces the serious danger of becoming a fortress, deluded in the belief that walls and airport detention rooms will offer security and prosperity. Through hard work, entrepreneurship, and complete allegiance to their adopted country, generations of immigrants helped create the most prosperous, powerful, and open society in human history. Throughout American history, but especially in the last two decades, immigrants have risen to the forefront of the country’s business, technology, science, and culture. But now the United States runs the risk not only of gravely damaging its competitive edge but also undermining its security by shutting its doors to a broad group of people whose cooperation America needs, both for economic growth and to win the war on terror," write Abbas Milani, Larry Diamond and Michael McFaul in The Atlantic. Read the article here.

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Abstract: How easily and quickly can states rise in the military domain? Do industrial espionage and in particular cyber-espionage facilitate and accelerate this process? In other words, are there empirical and theoretical reasons to believe that other states can easily imitate U.S. advanced weapon systems and thus erode American military- technological superiority? Drawing from the literature in economic history, economics, management and sociology, we maintain that the dramatic increase in the complexity of military technology that has taken place over the past 150 years has led to a change in the system of production, which in turn has made the imitation and the replication of the performance of military technology more difficult - despite globalization and advances in communications. As a result, developing advanced weapon systems has become significantly more challenging. We test our theory on a set of crucial case studies addressing possible cofounders. The available evidence supports our account. Our findings reassure about the threat of cyber-espionage, the role of globalization in armaments production and rise of China for American military-technological superiority. 

About the Speaker: Dr. Andrea Gilli is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. He holds a PhD in Social and Political Science from the European University Institute (EUI) in Fiesole, and in 2015 he was awarded the European Defence Agency and Egmont Institute’s bi-annual prize for the best dissertation on European defense, security and strategy. Andrea’s research focuses on change in military technology and its implications for international security. At CISAC, he is working on the consequences of the robotics revolutions for American military primacy. In the past, Andrea provided consulting services to both private and public organizations, and worked or was associated with the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Preparatory Commission for the Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization, the NATO Defense College, the Royal United Services Institute, the Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS-Johns Hopkins University, the European Union Institute for Security Studies, the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies at the Columbia University in New York and the Center for Security Studies at Metropolitan University Prague. Andrea has published articles on suicide terrorism, the diffusion of drone warfare and defense policy more in general in Security Studies, The RUSI Journal, and Washington Post’s Monkey Cage, among others.

Encina Hall, 2nd floor

Postdoctoral Fellow CISAC
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The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University collaborates widely with academics, policymakers and practitioners around the world to advance knowledge and practice about democracy, broad-based economic development, human rights, and the rule of law. We are deeply concerned by the recent executive order on immigration issued by the new administration. This order impacts members of our community - students, practitioners, academics, and visitors - who come to Stanford to attend our training programs, conferences and conduct research. Ultimately, barring entry into the country of citizens from a specific set of countries compromises the quality of our research, programming and intellectual activities. It also violates our shared values and integrity as an academic research institute.

 

CDDRL is currently in the process of reviewing the applications for our 2017 Draper Hills Summer Fellowship program and we want to assure everyone that each applicant will be equally considered, regardless of their country of origin.

 

In over a decade of working and training democracy activists from all over the world – including Muslim majority countries – we have developed friendships with colleagues who are working against great odds to build democratic institutions. The overwhelming majority is risking their lives to do so. These fellows together with students and researchers challenge our theories about democratic development and help inspire new projects and ideas to enrich our research agenda, not only for our center, but also for our broader institute - The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

 

We will continue to build our relationships equally with all countries around the world regardless of this new policy, and will stand in solidarity with those who are targeted by the adverse effects. The one lesson that recent events have conveyed is the resounding importance of the work we do to understand how countries become just, democratic and well-governed states.

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The class of 2016 Draper Hills Summer Fellows
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"As an American citizen, I have been rather appalled, like many others, at the rise of Donald Trump. I find it hard to imagine a personality less suited by temperament and background to be the leader of the world’s foremost democracy. On the other hand, as a political scientist, I am looking ahead to his presidency with great interest, since it will be a fascinating test of how strong American institutions are," writes CDDRL Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama in his article in Politico Magazine from January 23. Read the article here.

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"The book on Trump is still not written. We must to await the coming months to see which man, the deal-maker or the extremist, comes to the fore. But Trump’s victory also represents the latest stage in a global shift toward populist nationalism, a pattern whose meaning is starting to become frighteningly clear," writes our Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama in Prospect Magazine. Read the article here.

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"One mistake was to discount Russia’s importance in international affairs. The U.S. became engrossed in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, thinking that Russia was weak, and generally unimportant. Under President George W. Bush, the U.S. assumed that the world was unipolar after the Cold War, and that it would always be so," writes Kathryn Stoner, a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and faculty director of the Ford Dorsey Program on International Policy Studies at Stanford for the New York Times "Room for Debate". Read the article here.

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"I don't think anyone, including many in the media themselves, would say that they are somehow completely political neutral, but a much deeper assertion was made where even factual statements and fact-checking done by organizations like the New York Times or CNN were called into question, and they were called into question by people purporting to put forward facts that really had no actual empirical basis other than the fact that someone had said it on the Internet," says CDDRL Mosbacher Director Francis Fukuyama.  

 

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Temperature data are commonly used to estimate the sensitivity of many societally relevant outcomes, including crop yields, mortality, and economic output, to ongoing climate changes. In many tropical regions, however, temperature measures are often very sparse and unreliable, limiting our ability to understand climate change impacts. Here we evaluate satellite measures of near-surface temperature (Ts) as an alternative to traditional air temperatures (Ta) from weather stations, and in particular their ability to replace Ta in econometric estimation of climate response functions. We show that for maize yields in Africa and the United States, and for economic output in the United States, regressions that use Ts produce very similar results to those using Ta, despite the fact that daily correlation between the two temperature measures is often low. Moreover, for regions such as Africa with poor station coverage, we find that models with Ts outperform models with Ta, as measured by both R 2 values and out-of-sample prediction error. The results indicate that Ts can be used to study climate impacts in areas with limited station data, and should enable faster progress in assessing risks and adaptation needs in these regions.

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Environmental Research Letters
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Sam Heft-Neal
David Lobell
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The future trajectory of crop yields in the United States will influence food supply and land use worldwide. We examine maize and soybean yields for 2000–2015 in the Midwestern U.S. using a new satellite-based dataset on crop yields at 30m resolution. We quantify heterogeneity both within and between fields, and find that the difference between average and top yielding fields is typically below 30% for both maize and soybean, as expected in advanced agricultural regions. In most counties, within-field heterogeneity is at least half as large as overall heterogeneity, illustrating the importance of non-management factors such as soil and landscape position. Surprisingly, we find that yield heterogeneity is rising in maize, both between and within fields, with average yield differences between the best and worst soils more than doubling since 2000. Heterogeneity trends were insignificant for soybean. The findings are consistent both with recent adoption of precision agriculture technologies and with recent trends toward denser sowing in maize, which disproportionately raise yields on better soils. The results imply that yield gains in the region are increasingly derived from the more productive land, and that sub-field precision management of nutrients and other inputs is increasingly warranted.

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Environmental Research Letters
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David Lobell
George Azzari
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Many observers have written off U.S. manufacturing, and manufacturing in California in particular. High costs and offshoring are frequently blamed, and in the last election international trade agreements were added to the list.  But is manufacturing really in decline, are trade agreements a major factor, and what does the future of the sector look like in California? Technology, demographics and global competition will continue to drive change, but if California plays its cards right manufacturing can remain a prominent part of the state’s economy.

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Sean Randolph is Senior Director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, where he served as President & CEO from 1998-2015. Dr. Randolph previously served as director of international trade for the State of California (1994-98), where he directed international programs to stimulate exports and introduce California companies to overseas markets. Before service with the state, he was Managing Director of the RSR Pacific Group, an international business consulting firm specializing in Asia and Latin America, and before that served as International Director General of the Pacific Basin Economic Council (1988-1993), a 15-nation international organization of leading U.S., Asian and Latin American corporations active in Asia-Pacific trade and investment. His professional career includes extensive experience in the U.S. Government, on the U.S. Congress staff (1976-1980), and White House staff (1980-1981). From 1981–85 he served in the Department of State: on the Policy Planning Staff, as Special Adviser for Policy in the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and as Deputy/Ambassador-at Large for Pacific Basin affairs. From 1985–88 he served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy for International Affairs, managing nuclear proliferation, research, and global oil and gas issues. Dr. Randolph holds a JD from the Georgetown University Law Center, a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts and Harvard Universities), a B.S.F.S. from Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, and studied at the London School of Economics. 

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4:15pm: Doors open
4:30pm-5:30pm: Talk and Discussion
5:30pm-6:00pm: Networking

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For more information about the Silicon Valley-New Japan Project please visit: http://www.stanford-svnj.org/
 

 

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