Jeffrey Gedmin is President of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Inc. and in that capacity directs Broadcasting and Internet operations in 28 languages to countries stretching from Belarus to Bosnia and from the Arctic Sea to the Persian Gulf. Dr. Gedmin is author of the book "The Hidden Hand: Gorbachev and the Collapse of East Germany" (1992) and editor of a collection of essays titled "European Integration and the American Interest" (1997). He was also executive editor and producer of the award-winning PBS television program, "The Germans, Portrait of a New Nation" (1995) and co-executive producer of the documentary film titled "Spain's 9/11 and the Challenge of Radical Islam in Europe," aired on PBS in the spring of 2007. Jeffrey Gedmin has taught at Georgetown University and is an honorary professor at the University of Konstanz in Germany. A member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the board of the Council for a Community of Democracies (Washington, D.C.) and the Program of Atlantic Security Studies (Prague, Czech Republic), Gedmin holds a PhD. in German Area Studies and Linguistics from Georgetown University.

Dr. Gedmin's piece "Reporting Among Gangsters" on human rights violations perpetrated against journalists in Central Asia, appeared in the July 2, 2008 edition of the Washington Post.

Abstract:  Russia is the country that has the largest amount of weapon-usable fissile materials in its disposal, most of which has been produced during the cold war. In the years following the end of the cold war. Russia has undertaken significant effort to downsize its nuclear complex, leading to its serious transformation. This transformation, however, left the basic structure of the nuclear industry, most of the production facilities and most of the fissile material intact. Substantial amounts of weapon-usable fissile materials are still in storage, moved from one facility to another, or used for research and other purposes, creating security risks. Although the dangers associated with continuing presence of weapon material are generally acknowledged, the task of reducing this danger, by either eliminating the material or removing it from circulation and consolidating in a mall number of safe and secure storage sites, has proven difficult. The talk analyses the progress that Russia has made so far in consolidating its weapon-usable materials and describes the challenges that it is facing in further advancing this goal.

Pavel Podvig is a researcher at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. In 2008-09, Podvig is CISAC's acting associate director for research. Before coming to Stanford in 2004, he worked at the Center for Arms Control Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT), which was the first independent research organization in Russia dedicated to analysis of technical issues related to arms control and disarmament. In Moscow, Podvig was the leader of a major research project and the editor of the book Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces (MIT Press, 2001). In recognition of his work in Russia, the American Physical Society awarded Podvig the Leo Szilard Lectureship Award of 2008 (with Anatoli Diakov). From 2000 to 2004, Podvig worked with the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University, and earlier with the Security Studies Program at MIT. His current research focuses on the Russian strategic forces and nuclear weapons complex, as well as technical and political aspects of nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, missile defense, and U.S.-Russian arms control process.

Podvig received his degree in physics from MIPT and his PhD in political science from the Moscow Institute of World Economy and International Relations. Since 2001, Podvig has been a member of the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. He is a member of the APS Committee on International Freedom of Scientists and is serving as the Chair of the Committee in 2008. 

Abstract:  Given that even minor changes to our nuclear weapons posture have been rejected as too risky, it is surprising that the baseline risk of our current strategy had not been estimated prior to my March 2008 paper. Even though that paper uses a simplified model which only lower bounds the risk, it is estimated to be thousands of times greater than that associated with a nuclear power plant near your home. The advantages of bringing quantitative risk analysis to bear on this problem will be discussed and next steps proposed.

Martin E. Hellman is Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering at Stanford University and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. While best known for his invention with Diffie and Merkle of public key cryptography, he also has a strong concern for averting nuclear war. With Anatoly Gromyko, he co-edited "Breakthrough: Emerging New Thinking," a book which appeared in English and in Russian late in 1987 calling for a long-term process to eliminate the nuclear threat.

Professor Gardner discusses Ukraine's rise since its 'dramatic' recession in the 90s. He interprets this particularly from the perspective of the economy while examining other factors such as football and Ukraine's relationship with Russia. Professor Gardner also looks at Ukraine's integration with Europe and possible ascension into the EU.

Synopsis

Professor Gardner discusses Ukraine’s rise and possible ascension into the EU. Initially, he focuses on the dreadful state of the Ukrainian economy throughout the 1990s, with 20% lost before its independence and a steady 9% annual loss in growth. Gardner identifies the turning point as 2000 where Prime Minister Yushchenko’s reform package transitions the country onto a growth path, now steadily growing at an annual 7%. However, although Gardner says the country has caught up what it has lost, it is still below the transition country average and faces both internal and external challenges. These include skyrocketing inflation, large current account deficit, depreciation of currency, and a substantial trade deficit. In addition, Ukraine’s internal political chaos has led to unreliability in the country’s policy constancy. Externally, Ukraine is caught between a reluctant EU and an aggressive Russia as Dr. Gardner puts it.

The latter half of Professor Gardner’s talk focuses primarily on Ukraine’s integration with Europe. He notes the various ratings Ukraine receives as a transition country in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Overall, Ukraine received a three out four in the transition index. He explains increasing mobile phone use, bank reform, small scale business success, and price liberalization as Ukraine’s strengths on the scale. On the other hand, Ukraine’s weaknesses lie partly in its competition policy and the riskiness of the Ukrainian Stock Exchange. He also cites various key integration signals such as Ukraine’s co-hosting of the 2012 Euro Championship football tournament and its exports to Europe. Professor Gardner believes for Ukraine to make the EU list it will have to raise its EBRD score and rewrite its constitution.

Prof. Gardner also kindly took questions and further discussed a variety of issues. One notable point was that when asked what single move could substantially shift the nation forward and away from Russia, Professor Gardner identified further opening the trade relationship with Europe by reducing trade barriers as key. He also addressed internal political conflict, language issues, and referendums.

This event is sponsored jointly by the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies and the Forum on Contemporary Europe.

Tensions between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko came to a head in September, and the Orange parliamentary coalition broke up. What does this mean for Ukraine's political future, and for its ability to meet its key foreign policy challenges?

Steven Pifer is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and a (non-resident) senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. A retired Foreign Service officer, his more than 25 years with the State Department focused on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as on arms control and security issues. His assignments included deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs (2001-2004), ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000), and special assistant to the president and National Security Council senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia (1996-1997). He also served at the U.S. embassies in Warsaw, Moscow and London, as well as with the U.S. delegation to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces negotiations in Geneva. He holds a B.A. in economics from Stanford University, where he later spent a year as a visiting scholar at Stanford's Institute for International Studies. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

This event is jointly sponsored by the Forum on Contemporary Europe and the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies.