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Across the world, populations are aging rapidly as people live longer and fertility rates continue to decline. Asia is at the vanguard of this demographic shift. The number of older adults (aged 60 and above) in the region is projected to triple between 2010 and 2050, reaching nearly 1.3 billion people. As Asian economies face this “silver wave,” helping older adults live safely and independently at home – a concept known as aging in place – has become a policy imperative.

At a recent webinar held during Stanford Health AI Week, the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) at Shorenstein APARC brought together experts from China, Singapore, and South Korea to share insights into the potential of health AI to allow older adults to enjoy healthy aging and avoid or postpone institutionalization. 

Moderated by Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston, the director of AHPP, the webinar featured Hongsoo Kim, a professor of health policy and aging at Seoul National University’s Graduate School of Public Health and director of its Artificial Intelligence Institute’s Center for AI in Health and Care; Xiaochen Ma, an assistant professor of health economics at Peking University’s China Center for Health Development Studies; and Tien Yin Wong, a physician-scientist-innovator and the senior vice-chancellor of Tsinghua Medicine and vice-provost of Tsinghua University, who has also worked and held senior leadership roles in Singapore and Australia as a practicing retinal specialist with a research portfolio on retinal diseases, ocular imaging, AI, and digital technology.

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Here are six lessons from the front lines of Asia’s efforts to integrate AI into elderly health care and advance aging in place:

1. Adopt a Whole Systems Approach


In South Korea, the world's fastest-ageing society, automated systems like "CLOVA CareCall" – an AI-powered well-being dialer – conduct natural-sounding check-ins with solo-dwelling seniors, boasting a 96% response rate. Yet, Professor Kim emphasizes that checking in with people in need of health care is only half the battle.

If an AI flags an isolated senior at risk of depression, cognitive decline, or a physical abnormality, but the local community lacks the social workers or clinical pathways to intervene, then the health care system has failed.

“The question is not only whether AI can detect something, but how a health and care system acts on it,” she says. “Detection by itself changes nothing. A warning that no one follows up on helps no one. So the gap I care about is not the model’s cleverness itself. It is whether the system delivers.”

2. Solve the Entire "Care Cascade"


In rural China, traditional diabetic screening rates hover below 33%, leaving millions at risk of Diabetic Retinopathy (DR), a leading cause of blindness. Professor Ma shared how deploying an AI screening model successfully pushed screening rates past 85%.

The research team, however, discovered a glaring bottleneck: only 21% of high-risk patients actually followed up to receive sight-saving treatments. To fill in this gap, Ma’s team designed an "AI Plus” model (v2.0) that integrates immediate, local-language counseling at the point of screening. To keep seniors healthy at home, AI solutions must address the entire clinical journey, from initial scan to final treatment.

“Many of the AI tools have been focused on diagnosis accuracy or validation rather than going downstream to the entire cascade of whether improved screening will transfer into improved referral and the ultimate health outcomes,” says Ma.

3. Align with Local Workflows and Incentives


AI and other technology solutions for health often fail because they expect overworked care workers to adopt entirely new habits. Professor Ma noted that digital health interventions in rural China succeeded only when they integrated seamlessly into existing daily routines.

Instead of forcing clinicians to use complex new software, successful pilots utilized WeChat, the ubiquitous messaging app already open on every phone. Furthermore, the technology must align with the financial and professional incentives of frontline health workers. If an AI tool increases their administrative burden without simplifying their day or boosting their clinical efficiency, then it will remain unused.

4. Design Human-Centered AI for Health Equity


Professor Wong highlighted the ethical risk that AI tools will worsen, rather than reduce, health care disparities. This challenge is driven by the dynamics of “Inverse Care Law,” where AI disproportionately benefits the already advantaged, and the “Recursive Care Law,” where this inequality becomes a self-reinforcing cycle embedded in the system.

Because younger, more tech-savvy individuals generate more health data, AI models become better at serving them than the intended users of aging-in-place technologies. This creates a vicious cycle where the very tools designed to support aging populations end up marginalizing them. Governments must devise policies to mandate fair data coverage and usability, ensuring that AI serves society's most vulnerable members equitably, Wong stated.

Professor Kim noted that her team found that only about 38% of community care agencies in Korea have adopted AI and that the adoption rate varied sharply by region. In fact, districts with the greatest need may have the least access to these powerful tools. This challenge is not a technology gap, Professor Kim argues, but a fundamental design gap. To be genuinely equitable, a system must be built from the start to actively track who is missing and automatically route support back to them. This requires two  human-centered design key principles:

I. Universal by Default: The hardest-to-reach should not have to be the most persistent in navigating the technology.

II. Connected Across Sectors: Long-term care, social care, and health care must act as one integrated system rather than disconnected silos, each of which sees only part of the person’s needs.

 

5. Augment, Do Not Replace, the Human Touch


The panelists rejected the trope of robots replacing human caregivers. Instead, they view AI as an essential force multiplier for an overstretched workforce.

Whether it is South Korea’s deployment of 12,000 AI companion robots to combat senior isolation, or automated triage tools in clinics, the goal should be to offload administrative and routine tasks. This frees up human social workers and clinicians to do what they do best: deliver hands-on, empathetic care.

6. Value Real-World Outcomes Over Technical Novelty


Healthcare systems should prioritize rigorous, real-world case studies that prove actual clinical value, such as reduced mortality, lower rates of blindness, or fewer nursing home admissions, rather than celebrating high validation benchmarks in a laboratory.

To build robust future health AI systems, the experts concluded, the academic and tech sectors must also courageously publish and analyze their failed trials to understand what truly works in the chaotic reality of home-based care.

While AI holds immense promise for helping people grow old at home, “age tech” alone cannot solve the elder care crisis, the panelists agreed.

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Asia's Aging Populations Drive Surging Disease Burden, Although Individual Health Improves

Across five Asian health care systems, rapid population aging drives up disease burden, particularly for chronic conditions, even as medical advancements improve outcomes for individual patients, according to a study co-authored by Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston.
Asia's Aging Populations Drive Surging Disease Burden, Although Individual Health Improves
A teenager is given blood test during a physical examination in Seoul, South Korea.
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Income-Based Health Inequalities Persist in the US and South Korea, Though Universal Coverage Helps Reduce Disparities

South Korea achieves comparable clinical outcomes at lower per-capita spending than the United States, according to a new study. The co-authors, including Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston, find systemic income-based inequalities in health care access and utilization in both countries, albeit they are less pronounced under South Korea's universal health care system.
Income-Based Health Inequalities Persist in the US and South Korea, Though Universal Coverage Helps Reduce Disparities
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Top aging and healthy policy experts from China, Singapore, and South Korea agree that helping older adults age at home requires addressing systemic health care bottlenecks rather than racing to build smarter AI models.

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Banner for Shorenstein APARC working papers, showing a photo of a woman tending to plants in a terraced rice field in Vietnam.

 

 

Across Southeast Asia, millions of young people fall into a group researchers call "NEET," meaning they are neither working, studying, nor in training. Despite rapid growth in mobile internet access, high NEET rates persist across the region. This raises an important question: Is digital connectivity actually helping young people connect with economic opportunities?

This study examines data across 11 ASEAN countries over a decade (2014–2024) to analyze which aspects of mobile connectivity — infrastructure, affordability, digital skills, and available content — are most closely linked to youth NEET rates.

Key Findings:
 

  • Affordability matters. The cost of mobile data and devices is strongly associated with youth NEET rates, particularly for young women. Having access to a network is not enough if young people cannot afford to use it.
  • Digital skills help women enter the workforce. In countries where women have stronger foundational skills, female NEET rates tend to be lower.
  • Owning a phone does not equal opportunity. Mobile phone ownership was actually associated with higher NEET rates among young men. A likely explanation is that phones are primarily used for entertainment rather than for productive purposes.
  • Network coverage and connectivity speed showed no significant relationship with NEET rates. Infrastructure alone is not the answer.

 

The study concludes that governments and organizations need to move beyond building networks and focus on targeted interventions, like reducing costs, building skills, and developing locally relevant content, tailored where appropriate to gender-specific needs and local conditions.

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Digital Inclusion as a Pathway for Youth Not in Employment, Education, or Training

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Noa Ronkin
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Stanford University’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is delighted to announce today, ahead of World Press Freedom Day, that Singapore-based investigative journalist Shibani Mahtani is the recipient of the 2026 Shorenstein Journalism Award for excellence in coverage of the Asia-Pacific region. The award recognizes Mahtani for her original, powerful reporting that has brought critical attention to the erosion of democracy and human rights across the region, particularly in Southeast Asia. She will receive the award at a public ceremony in the coming autumn quarter.

Until February 2026, Mahtani was an international investigative correspondent for the Washington Post. Her accountability-driven investigations across the Asia-Pacific have focused on the expanding economic and political influence of an increasingly assertive China and its implications in the region. Her work includes, among others, reports linking powerful criminal networks in Myanmar to the Chinese state and exposing brutal scam compounds in the country; examining Beijing’s influence on Chinese-language media in Singapore and its efforts to wield influence in Indonesia and elsewhere through vocational programs; scrutinizing China’s cross-national repression of Uyghur Muslims, especially in Central and Southeast Asia; and investigating how its promise of prosperity brought Laos debt and distress.

Mahtani joined the Washington Post in 2018 as the Southeast Asia and Hong Kong Bureau Chief. She reported extensively from Myanmar, the Philippines, Laos, and other parts of the region. Most notably, she chronicled China’s subjugation of Hong Kong, from the explosive protests in 2019, triggered by Beijing’s proposal to extradite locals to the mainland, through the systematic crushing of the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement, to the dismantling of the city’s autonomy and the many ways it is changing.

Shibani Mahtani’s journalism is defined by a courageous and relentless pursuit of speaking truth to power. Her work exemplifies the vital role of investigative reporting.
Kiyoteru Tsutsui
Director, Shorenstein APARC

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Her searing coverage of Hong Kong’s struggle includes a multimedia investigative report into Hong Kong police misconduct during the 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations, for which she earned a Human Rights Press Award, and an exclusive on the alleged torture of a key prosecution witness in Hong Kong’s highest-profile trial of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai. Mahtani continued to pursue that story, most recently reporting on Lai’s 20-year prison sentence, even after losing her job when the Washington Post sharply reduced its International team as part of mass layoffs.

Mahtani is also the co-author of the 2023 book, Among the Braves: Hope, Struggle, and Exile in the Battle for Hong Kong and the Future of Global Democracy, a narrative history of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement that explores it through the eyes of people on the ground, culminating in the 2019 mass protests and Beijing’s crackdown. 

Before joining the Washington Post, she was a correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and reported from Singapore, Myanmar, and Chicago.

“Shibani Mahtani’s journalism is defined by a courageous and relentless pursuit of speaking truth to power,” said APARC Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui. “Her work exemplifies the vital role of investigative reporting: to expose complex systems of repression and give voice to those who have been silenced. We are proud to honor her outstanding journalism with the Shorenstein Award.”

Sponsored and presented annually by APARC, the Shorenstein Award recognizes journalists and news media outlets that leverage a deep knowledge of Asian societies to share crucial insights with a global audience. The award carries a $10,000 cash prize and honors the legacy of APARC’s benefactor, Mr. Walter H. Shorenstein, and his twin passions for promoting excellence in journalism and understanding of Asia. It also demonstrates APARC’s commitment to journalism that persistently and courageously seeks accuracy, deep reporting, and nuanced coverage in an age when attacks are regularly launched against independent news media, fact-based truth, and those who tell it.

The selection committee for the award praised Mahtani’s investigations as groundbreaking and revelatory, noting that, in her coverage of Hong Kong, she has broken stories others would not – or could not – report.

The committee members are William Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy; Anna Fifield, a journalist and foreign affairs analyst, non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and recipient of the 2018 Shorenstein Journalism Award; James Hamilton, vice provost for undergraduate education, the Hearst Professor of Communication, and director of the Stanford Journalism Program, Stanford University; Louisa Lim, associate professor, Audio-Visual Journalism Culture and Communication at the University of Melbourne; and Raju Narisetti, partner and global leader at McKinsey Global Publishing, McKinsey & Company.

Twenty-four winners previously received the Shorenstein Award. Recent honorees include Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for the New York Times; Emily Feng, international correspondent for NPR covering China, Taiwan, and more; Netra News, Bangladesh's premier independent media outlet; The Caravan, India's premier magazine of long-form journalism; and Nobel Laureate Maria Ressa, co-founder and CEO of the Philippines-based news organization Rappler.

Information about the 2026 Shorenstein Journalism Award ceremony celebrating Mahtahni will be forthcoming in the autumn quarter.

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Shorenstein Journalism Award Honors Netra News, Spotlights Public Interest Reporting Advancing Democracy and Accountability in Bangladesh

The 2025 Shorenstein Journalism Award recognized Netra News, Bangladesh’s premier independent media outlet, at a celebration featuring Tasneem Khalil, its founding editor-in-chief, who discussed its mission and joined a panel of experts in considering the prospects for democracy in Bangladesh.
Shorenstein Journalism Award Honors Netra News, Spotlights Public Interest Reporting Advancing Democracy and Accountability in Bangladesh
Kimberly Hoang and Kiyoteru Tsutsui seated in an office during a recorded podcast conversation.
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Weaponized Corruption, Extreme Wealth, and Democratic Reordering: Insights from Asia

Speaking on the APARC Briefing video series, University of Chicago sociologist Kimberly Kay Hoang examines the architecture of global capital and how corruption discourse is transforming governance and political order in Asia and the United States.
Weaponized Corruption, Extreme Wealth, and Democratic Reordering: Insights from Asia
Panelists gather for a group photo at the 2026 Oksenberg Conference.
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Indo-Pacific Powers Diversify and De-Risk as Multipolar World Takes Shape

At the 2026 Oksenberg Conference, scholars and foreign policy experts assessed how Indo-Pacific powers are coping with a less predictable United States as China pursues selective leadership and Russia exploits Western divisions.
Indo-Pacific Powers Diversify and De-Risk as Multipolar World Takes Shape
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Portrait photo of Shibani Mahtan, winner of the 2026 Shorenstein Journalism Award.
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Sponsored by Stanford University’s Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, the 25th annual Shorenstein Journalism Award honors Mahtani for her exemplary investigations into the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong and China's growing global influence.

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Highlights

 

  • Total DALYs increased across all five Asian societies between 2000 and 2019.
  • Population aging was identified as the primary driver of total DALY increases.
  • However, substantial decreases in DALYs per disease case were observed.
  • These trends were especially pronounced for non-communicable diseases.

 

Background

Rapid population aging in Asia has significantly increased the disease burden. However, there is limited research on the drivers of such changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

 

Objective

To examine the factors contributing to changes in DALYs in China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan in 2000 and 2019.

 

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Changes in DALYs between 2010 and 2019 were decomposed into four factors: population size, age-sex structure, disease cases per person, and DALYs per disease case.

 

Results

From 2000 to 2019, total DALYs increased across all locations. While DALYs from injuries, communicable, maternal and neonatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies decreased, DALYs from non-communicable diseases increased. Decomposition analysis identified population aging (changes in age-sex structure) as the primary driver of increases in total DALYs, contributing an average of 33.6%. Population growth accounted for 15.3% on average. However, these increases were partially offset by decreases in DALYs per disease case, which fell by an average of -29.4%. Contributions from disease cases per person were relatively modest, averaging -3.4%. Notably, the decline in DALYs per disease case was more pronounced for non-communicable diseases, despite an overall increase in disease cases per person.

 

Conclusions

The increase in DALYs across these Asian societies was primarily driven by population aging and growth. However, DALYs per disease case decreased, suggesting improvements in disease management. Given the growing burden of non-communicable diseases in these societies, maintaining a focus on effective interventions remains crucial.

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Income-Based Inequalities in Health System Performance in the US and South Korea

Income-Based Inequalities in Health System Performance in the US and South Korea
Journal Articles

Dementia Care in a Rapidly Aging Society

Dementia Care in a Rapidly Aging Society
Journal Articles

The Evolution of Age-Friendly Jobs in a Rapidly Ageing Economy

The Evolution of Age-Friendly Jobs in a Rapidly Ageing Economy
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Karen Eggleston
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How do multiracial societies like Singapore foster social integration? How successful are these efforts, and how do they affect the lived experiences of minority groups, especially in contexts governed by racial quotas? In what ways does enforced racial integration shape racial formations and race relations?

These are some of the questions guiding APARC Predoctoral Fellow Alisha Cherian’s academic journey, which is rooted in a deep curiosity about how race operates in everyday urban life, particularly within Southeast Asia.

Cherian, a Stanford Ph.D. candidate in social and cultural anthropology, delves into the ways in which Indian Singaporeans navigate their identities and racial positioning in a public urban setting in a society where race is both a deeply ingrained social reality and an official category enforced by the state. Her research reflects a nuanced approach to race relations in a region that has long been at the crossroads of colonial legacies, multiculturalism, and state-led racial governance.

I’m interested in exploring how people live their lives within these larger structural conditions. I’m trying to get a deeper understanding of the grounded, empirical lived reality of the Singapore state’s explicit race craft.
Alisha Cherian
APARC Predoctoral Fellow


By focusing on the experiences of Indian Singaporeans, Cherian challenges traditional top-down narratives of racial governance that have dominated scholarship on Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These countries, often studied together due to their shared historical, cultural, and political contexts, have long been the subject of analyses from disciplines such as history, political science, urban studies, and geography. Yet, as Cherian points out, much of this work has focused on macro-level structures such as policies and state narratives, leaving gaps in understanding how these policies manifest in the daily lives of individuals.

"I’m interested in exploring how people live their lives within these larger structural conditions," she explains. "I’m trying to get a deeper understanding of the grounded, empirical lived reality of the Singapore state’s explicit race craft."

The Struggles and Nuances of Studying Race in Singapore

Race relations in Singapore — central to the nation’s political and historical development — remain a subject fraught with tension. As Cherian describes, although race is an official category in Singapore, the discussion of racism is a highly sensitive one. Conversations around racial discrimination are often met with skepticism or outright denial, particularly by the Singapore government and the racial majority, which in the context of the state’s policies is predominantly Chinese.

This skepticism extends even into academic circles, where Cherian has encountered resistance from scholars unfamiliar with the region who question whether her work might be too heavily influenced by American ideas of race relations, especially in light of global conversations around privilege.

Race is not a monolith, it’s a lived reality, and that’s where the story lies.
Alisha Cherian
APARC Predoctoral Fellow

Indeed, the notion of "Chinese privilege," a term that Cherian uses in her research, has roots in the American concept of "white privilege," yet it takes on distinct meanings within the Singaporean context. "Chinese privilege" refers to the systemic advantages that ethnic Chinese enjoy in Singapore, something that Cherian’s research subjects, primarily Indian Singaporeans, use to explain their marginalized position within the city-state. For Cherian, these local terminologies and frameworks are essential to understanding the racial dynamics at play. "I make sure to study Singapore race relations on their own terms," she says, "which is at the heart of anthropological inquiry itself."

Navigating the sensitive nature of her subject matter, Cherian is aware that critiques of the state’s racial policies can be met with censorship, or worse, backlash. Yet, she sees these challenges as integral to capturing the complex dynamics of racial identity in a globalized world. "Race is not a monolith," she asserts. "It’s a lived reality, and that’s where the story lies."

Scholarship Shaped by Interdisciplinary Conversations

Cherian’s time as a predoctoral scholar has been pivotal in shaping her approach to research and its potential for broader societal impact. While her research at APARC has allowed her to refine her dissertation, titled "Discordant Harmonies: Everyday Life in the Racial City-State," the experience has also provided her with a unique opportunity to engage in interdisciplinary conversations with scholars and practitioners from across Asia and the world.

"It’s been inspiring to see how postdoctoral scholars and faculty at APARC have mobilized their findings in ways that have a broader impact," Cherian reflects. "It’s made me think about how I can channel my own work into productive change. Whether it’s through policy conferences or meetings with world leaders, the way scholars here have connected their research to real-world challenges has been really inspiring."

The collegial and intellectually stimulating environment at APARC has helped her envision new possibilities for her academic career. Cherian describes the APARC community as one that is both rigorous and warm. “I’ve had some great conversations with my deskmates and at lunch events,” she says. “I’ve received reading recommendations and heard fascinating stories about the varied professional trajectories of the people around me. It’s helped me imagine even more futures for myself.”

Looking Ahead: Turning Research into Action

With her dissertation nearing completion, Cherian plans to adapt her work into a book that will bring the complex, often discordant dynamics of race relations in Singapore to a broader audience. Through this book, she hopes to offer a new perspective on how race operates within the everyday lives of Singaporeans, ultimately providing a more grounded understanding of racial governance in the city-state.

To aspiring scholars in race and ethnicity studies, Cherian offers this advice: "Center your research subjects," she says, emphasizing the importance of grounding scholarly work in the lived experiences of people. "Take seriously how they understand their world, and don’t be afraid to confront the gaps in the existing literature."

Driven by a commitment to rigorous scholarship and its social impact, Cherian’s work challenges us to reconsider how race is not just a structural concept, but a lived experience that shapes the very fabric of urban life in Singapore and beyond.
 

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Huixia Wang
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Breaking Cycles of Disadvantage: Visiting Scholar Huixia Wang on the Dynamics of Intergenerational Health Disparities

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Gi-Wook Shin receiving the Korean American Achievement Award.
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Gi-Wook Shin Honored with Korean American Achievement Award

The award recognizes Shin’s contributions to advancing Korean studies and strengthening U.S.-Korea relations through scholarship and bridge-building.
Gi-Wook Shin Honored with Korean American Achievement Award
APARC Senior Fellow Michel Oksenberg meets with Chinese paramount leader Deng Xiaoping
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Honoring Jimmy Carter: When Chinese Students Arrived in the US After the Cultural Revolution — with Thomas Fingar

It became clear, certainly by 1978, that educational exchanges, access to training, and export controls — these were going to be litmus tests of U.S.-China relations.
Honoring Jimmy Carter: When Chinese Students Arrived in the US After the Cultural Revolution — with Thomas Fingar
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Alisha Cherian, APARC Predoctoral Fellow
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APARC 2024-25 Predoctoral Fellow Alisha Cherian studies race relations in Southeast Asia, focusing on the lived experience of Indian Singaporeans and their interactions with state-defined racial categories.

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Shorenstein APARC's annual report for the academic year 2023-24 is now available.

Learn about the research, publications, and events produced by the Center and its programs over the last academic year. Read the feature sections, which look at the historic meeting at Stanford between the leaders of Korea and Japan and the launch of the Center's new Taiwan Program; learn about the research our faculty and postdoctoral fellows engaged in, including a study on China's integration of urban-rural health insurance and the policy work done by the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL); and catch up on the Center's policy work, education initiatives, publications, and policy outreach. Download your copy or read it online below.

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APARC Predoctoral Fellow, 2024-2025
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Alisha Elizabeth Cherian joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as APARC Predoctoral Fellow for the 2024-2025 academic year. She is a PhD candidate in Social and Cultural Anthropology at Stanford University. She received her BA from Vassar College in Anthropology and Drama with a correlate in Asian Studies, and her MA in the Social Sciences from the University of Chicago.

Her dissertation, entitled "Beyond Integration: Indian Singaporean Public Urban Life", investigates how enforced racial integration shapes racial formations and race relations in Singapore. Her project explores everyday encounters and interactions that are structured, but not overdetermined, by the state's multiracial policies as well as colonial histories and regional legacies of Indian indentured and convict labour. With her research, she seeks to contribute to a more ethnographic understanding of how plural societies are approached both scholarly and practically.

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Noa Ronkin
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As nations grapple with an increasingly competitive global talent landscape, a new study, published in the journal World Development, suggests that countries should rethink their approach to developing, attracting, and retaining talent. To address the need for a more complete understanding of cross-national variation in talent development strategy, the study proposes Talent Portfolio Theory (TPT), a novel approach to studying and improving human resource development.

The researchers, Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and the director of APARC and the Korea Program, and Haley Gordon, a PhD candidate at Stanford’s Department of Sociology, draw on the principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, a well-established framework in financial investment literature, to propose a new framework for talent development.

The new framework, TPT, views a nation’s talent strategy much like an investment portfolio, emphasizing the importance of diversification, risk management, and rebalancing. Shin and Grodon examine Japan and Singapore as case studies to illustrate how the TPT approach can help scholars, policymakers, and businesses better understand and optimize talent development strategies.

The study is part of the Talent Flows and Development research track of the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL). Housed at APARC and directed by Shin, SNAPL is a new initiative committed to addressing emergent social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia-Pacific nations through interdisciplinary, policy-relevant, and comparative research.

Talent Portfolio Theory enables a holistic understanding of a nation’s talent development. TPT also allows us to see the evolution of talent development strategy in terms of rebalancing a talent portfolio over time.
Gi-Wook Shin and Haley Gordon

A Fresh Perspective on Talent Development

Talent development has long been a priority for nations aiming to boost economic growth and compete globally. Traditionally, countries have focused on building human capital — developing skills and education among citizens — and social capital — strengthening networks and relationships that facilitate cooperation and innovation. Existing strategies, however, often overlook the interconnected nature of various talent flows, including the movement of domestic talent, international talent, and diaspora engagement.

Just like financial theory evaluates a given investment (and its risk and return qualities) by how it impacts a portfolio’s overall performance rather than in isolation, TPT treats talent as a portfolio composed of four key elements, known as the “four Bs”: brain train (domestic talent development), brain gain (attracting foreign talent), brain circulation (movement of talent between home and abroad), and brain linkage (engagement with diaspora communities).

“In the study of national talent development, it is imperative to consider both the human and social capital facets of talent, as a country has multiple layers of talent available for use – domestic, diasporic, and foreign – each with different human and social capital potentials,” write Shin and Gordon. They propose TPT as “a better framework for illustrating and comparing different experiences and impacts of talent development at the national level, which is also key in offering policy prescriptions for human resource strategies.”

Talent Portfolio Theory allows for a comparison between Singapore and Japan, [...] explaining how timely rebalancing to maintain diversification enabled the former to sustain success while the latter stagnated, succumbing to risk.
Gi-Wook Shin and Haley Gordon

Insights from Japan and Singapore

Using Japan and Singapore as case studies, the authors demonstrate how countries can apply TPT to manage their talent portfolios. Japan's economic growth relied on two tiers of human capital: top-level scientists and engineers who adapted and integrated foreign technologies for domestic use, and skilled workers who grasped the fundamentals of these adapted technologies and carried out the manufacturing processes. With limited prospects for brain gain, circulation, or linkage, Japan developed these two layers of its workforce by relying on brain train, cultivating domestic talent for its industrial development.

In the early 1990s, however, Japan’s economy ran into trouble. Its system of brain train was well-suited for driving incremental innovation, but it became restrictive in the rapidly evolving landscape of the early 21st century, which demanded more disruptive innovation. “The Japanese model of human resource development necessitated a robust supply of domestic manpower which now became increasingly difficult to sustain, and a shrinking working-age population also meant labor shortage and reduced productivity,” say Shin and Gordon. “In the language of TPT, Japan urgently needed to diversify its talent portfolio beyond its reliance on brain train to address new risks.”

Recognizing the risks of a skewed talent portfolio, Japan began to rebalance its talent portfolio in the 2010s but has struggled with demographic decline and a slow pivot toward international talent. Despite efforts to internationalize higher education and attract foreign talent, Japan’s diversification of its talent portfolio has been stagnant and was hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In contrast, Singapore’s approach showcases the benefits of a well-balanced talent portfolio. The city-state’s aggressive pursuit of foreign talent (brain gain) and robust engagement with its diaspora (brain linkage) have made it a leader in global talent strategy. Singapore’s government has continually adjusted its policies, actively rebalancing its talent portfolio to maintain a competitive edge.

Singapore started rebalancing its talent portfolio in the 1990s, not only enhancing its efforts toward brain train but also expanding brain gain by internationalizing higher education and actively promoting a “work-migration” path. In tandem with its brain gain initiatives, Singapore also turned to its diaspora, fostering brain circulation and establishing stronger brain linkages. Through concerted efforts by the government and industry, Singapore has successfully produced and attracted creative talent that allowed it to remain globally competitive.

“Talent Portfolio Theory enables a holistic understanding of the various components of Singapore’s talent strategy and its evolution over time, from the country’s focus on brain train during its catch-up phase to its rebalancing with a successful brain gain, in addition to more recent forays into brain circulation and brain linkage,” Shin and Gordon explain.

Countries must enact sociocultural policies that ensure global competitiveness in the new talent market by emphasizing openness, tolerance, and diversity in order to gain the best and brightest brains.
Gi-Wook Shin and Haley Gordon

Toward Fostering Cultural Diversity

TPT offers a powerful framework for crafting more resilient and adaptive talent strategies. As the global competition for skilled workers intensifies, understanding the dynamics of talent portfolios can help countries mitigate risks, capitalize on opportunities, and avoid the pitfalls of overly narrow approaches to human resource development. For instance, countries experiencing demographic decline, like Japan, can look to Singapore’s model of timely rebalancing as a guide for policy adjustment. Businesses also stand to benefit from TPT. The framework encourages companies to look beyond the availability of local talent and consider the broader talent ecosystem, including international talent flows and diaspora engagement.

Shin and Gordon emphasize that structural and sociocultural factors often limit policy options for building and rebalancing talent portfolios. Japan and Singapore illustrate that developed countries with abundant domestic opportunities are better positioned to retain talent and attract brain gain, whereas developing countries often experience talent outflows, favoring brain circulation or linkage (as seen in China and India). Additionally, while ethnically homogenous countries like Japan may prefer to rely on domestic and diasporic talent, multiethnic countries like Singapore can better attract foreign talent and engage in brain gain.

The contrasting experiences of Japan and Singapore underscore the critical importance of fostering cultural diversity to attract foreign talent. Singapore’s success with brain gain, compared to Japan’s more mixed outcomes, largely stems from its multicultural environment, shaped by policies that protect minority rights and actively promote respect for diverse ethnic groups. To remain competitive in the global talent market, countries must prioritize sociocultural policies that cultivate openness, tolerance, and diversity. By embracing these values, nations can attract the best and brightest minds, ensuring their place in a rapidly evolving global economy.

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Stanford researchers Gi-Wook Shin and Haley Gordon propose a novel framework for cross-national understanding of human resource development and a roadmap for countries to improve their talent development strategies.

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Highlights 

  • Talent Portfolio Theory is a new framework for studying human resource development.
  • Talent portfolios use brain train, brain gain, brain circulation, and brain linkage.
  • National talent strategies involve portfolio diversification and rebalancing.
  • Talent Portfolio Theory allows cross-national comparison of talent strategy over time.
  •  While Japan stagnated, Singapore sustained growth by rebalancing its talent portfolio.


In this article, the researchers propose Talent Portfolio Theory (TPT) as a new framework for studying human resource development. Drawing insights from Modern Portfolio Theory in financial investment, TPT views a nation’s talent development as creating a “talent portfolio” composed of four “B”s: brain train, brain gain, brain circulation, and brain linkage. TPT attends to how a talent portfolio, like a financial one, is diversified to minimize risk, and how diversification can be maintained via rebalancing. As such, TPT provides a framework that captures the overall picture of a country’s talent strategy and offers a lens through which to understand how a country changes or “rebalances” its talent portfolio over time. It also provides a tool for examining cross-national variation in talent development strategy.

The authors illustrate the utility of TPT with the cases of Japan and Singapore. While human resource development was crucial to the economic rise of both countries, TPT demonstrates that Japan’s and Singapore’s approaches to constructing and rebalancing their talent portfolios took different routes with diverging outcomes. They conclude with discussions of theoretical and policy implications of this new approach for the study and implementation of talent development.

This study is part of the Talent Flows and Development research track of the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab.

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Insights from Financial Theory, Illustrations from the Asia-Pacific

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World Development
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Gi-Wook Shin
Haley Gordon
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Book cover for "Imperfect Partners"

Watch our interview below with Scot Marciel about Imperfect Partners. You can also read a summary news article of the conversation.

Listen to a conversation with Marciel on the Insight Myanmar podcast, below.

About the book

Scot Marciel is widely considered the State Department’s top Southeast Asia hand, the result of decades of experience working in and on the region and the key role he has played in shaping and implementing U.S. policy. He was on the ground in the Philippines during the historic People Power revolt in the 1980s, became the first U.S. diplomat to serve in Hanoi in the early 1990s, was appointed the first U.S. ambassador to ASEAN in the 2000s, and spent the last 15 years twice serving as the State Department’s point person on Southeast Asia policy, and as U.S. ambassador to Indonesia and then to Myanmar during that country’s democratic experiment and its horrific ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya.

Imperfect Partners encapsulates Marciel’s experiences, providing the perspective of an American diplomat who has dealt with the dual challenges of working with foreign governments and also within the U.S. government. Noting that the United States “has a history of not quite knowing how to engage with Southeast Asia,” he highlights the ups and downs of critical U.S. relationships in the region. Marciel explores not only diplomatic successes, but challenges faced, missteps made, and opportunities missed in U.S. diplomacy with Southeast Asia. His on-the-ground witness account of the normalization of U.S.-Vietnam relations is essential reading, as is his passionate analysis of the gains and the failures of Myanmar’s decade-long opening.

While China’s rise has re-injected a long-absent strategic element into U.S. policy toward Southeast Asia, Marciel warns against making China the focus of that policy. He argues that the United States can best advance its own interests—and support the freedom of maneuver of Southeast Asia—through a strategy of consistent engagement based on a positive agenda and by focusing on the region’s dynamic younger generation.


Virtual Book Talks

"What we have in this very readable book are the reflections of an eminent American diplomat on issues of particular significance for Australia as it continues to ponder how it should be responding to China’s rise, and how those responses are likely to affect its alliance with the US." — Dr. Allan Patience

Read the complete review at the Australian Institute for International Affairs >    

Praise for the Book

"For the United States, Southeast Asia is one of the most important and least understood parts of the world. Scot Marciel draws on his vast diplomatic experience to bring a wealth of illuminating stories, hard-earned insights, and wise analysis to bear on a region that will help determine our capacity to deal with the most pressing issues of the 21st century. . . . Imperfect Partners is an indispensable resource for anyone seeking to understand Southeast Asia and America’s relationship with its countries and people."
Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security advisor and author of After the Fall

"Drawing on his 35 years of diplomatic experience, Scot Marciel has written an illuminating survey of the United States' relations with Southeast Asia. . . . This is an excellent primer on a part of the world whose significance has grown substantially in recent years with the rise of neighboring China."
John Negroponte, career diplomat, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations and the first director of national intelligence

"Ambassador Scot Marciel has written a gem of a book. His thoughtfully researched account is brought to life with fascinating insights and captivating, on-the-scene anecdotes. . . . Imperfect Partners is a must-read for U.S. policymakers, business leaders, academics, humanitarians, and everyday Americans engaging with the nations of Southeast Asia."
Kristie Kenney, former State Department counselor and U.S. ambassador to Thailand, the Philippines, and Ecuador

"A master practitioner has provided us with a ring-side view of how our diplomats pursue American interests in Southeast Asia.  This is must reading for aspiring Southeast Asia hands who want to familiarize themselves with American regional diplomacy.  It’s also indispensable reading for American strategists, who will ignore Ambassador Marciel’s policy prescriptions at their peril."
Dave Shear, former assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs and U.S. ambassador to Vietnam

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Books
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The United States And Southeast Asia

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Scot Marciel
Book Publisher
Shorenstein APARC
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