Abstract
In order to eliminate nuclear weapons, the world will first have to pass through a regime of "low numbers" in which the US and Russian arsenals contain hundreds of weapons. The conclusion of the New START agreement, along with President Medvedev and President Obama's intention to work on a successor treaty, have brought this prospect forward. Many Western and Russian analysts worry that such a world might be unstable. However, in spite of these fears, the "low numbers problem" has attracted surprisingly little attention in the past (perhaps because the prospect of deep reductions always seemed so remote). In this talk, I will argue that the most likely type of instability is rearmament. I will examine potential drivers of rearmament and discuss steps to ensure that its likelihood can be minimized.

James M. Acton is an associate in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment specializing in nonproliferation and disarmament. A physicist by training, Acton’s research focuses on the interface of technical and political issues, with special attention to the civilian nuclear industry, IAEA safeguards, and practical solutions to strengthening the nonproliferation regime.

Before joining the Endowment in October 2008, Acton was a lecturer at the Centre for Science and Security Studies in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. There he co-authored the Adelphi Paper, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, with George Perkovich and was a consultant to the Norwegian government on disarmament issues. Prior to that, Acton was the science and technology researcher at the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC), where he was a participant in the UK–Norway dialogue on verifying the dismantlement of warheads.

Acton’s other previous research projects include analyses of IAEA safeguards in Iran, verifying disarmament in North Korea, preventing novel forms of radiological terrorism, and the capability of Middle Eastern states to develop nuclear energy. He has published in Jane’s Intelligence Review, Nonproliferation Review, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Survival, and the New York Times. In the UK, he appeared regularly on TV and radio, including on the BBC programs Newsnight, Horizon, and the Six O’clock News.

Just how easy (or difficult) is it for North Koreans to watch banned American movies or listen to Korean-language news broadcasts that Pyongyang spends a great deal of time condemning and resources trying to block?  The North Korean border has become increasingly porous, with news reports suggesting that American and South Korean films have become so popular that the North Korean authorities have been forced to issue edicts on the length of men’s hair, for example.  At the same time, several American, South Korean and Japanese radio stations are targeting North Korea through short and medium-wave broadcasts.  A growing number of defectors report having tasted such forbidden fruit before leaving North Korea.  To what extent is banned media undermining the regime’s control of the flow of information?  Do such broadcasts encourage North Koreans to defect?

Peter M. Beck is the 2009-10 Pantech Fellow at Stanford University’s Asia Pacific Research Center.  He also teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. and Ewha Woman's University in Seoul.  He also writes a monthly column for Weekly Chosun and The Korea Herald.  Previously, he was the executive director of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea and directed the International Crisis Group’s Northeast Asia Project in Seoul.  He was also the Director of Research and Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute in Washington.  He has published over 100 academic and short articles and testified before Congress.

Brian Myers will talk about his new book The Cleanest Race: How the North Korean See Themselves and Why it Matters (January 2010).

Myers was born in New Jersey and raised in Bermuda, South Africa, and Germany.  He has a Ph.D. in North Korean Studies from the University of Tubingen, Germany.  His books include Han Sorya and North Korean Literature (1994) and A Reader's Manifesto (2002).

In addition to writing literary criticism for The Atlantic, of which he is a contributing editor, Myers regularly contributes articles on North Korea to the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and academic journals. He is a contributor to a book First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier (2009) published by The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University.

This seminar is supported by the generous grant from Koret Foundation.

UNICEF immunizes children, provides nutritional supplements and essential medicines, promotes better child care practices, provides access to safe water, promotes hygiene and sanitation practices and improves conditions in schools.  Working with partners, UNICEF has succeeded in pushing the envelope in some areas including access to communities, improving teaching and learning methodologies, starting a process to improve the condition of children in residential institutions and measuring the impact of the work done through surveys and assessments.

The presentation will illustrate some of these initiatives to promote a discussion on the lessons to be drawn for a wider engagement with North Korea through humanitarian interventions in the social sector.

Mr. Balagopal was head of UNICEF’s office in Pyongyang for over three years from September 2006 to November, 2009.  UNICEF has been in North Korea since 1997 and has currently 12 international and 24 seconded national staff working in Pyongyang.