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Free and open to the public. For details of this event, please visit the event website, https://events.stanford.edu/events/752/75249/

This event is sponsored by:
Stanford University Libraries, East Asia Library, History Department, Center for East Asian Studies, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures

East Asia Library, Room 224

518 Memorial Way

Stanford University

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Former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens spoke on the "PBS News Hour" about the first high-level talks between North Korea and South Korea in more than two years. The two nations agreed to hold future military talks aimed at easing border tensions and the North pledged to send a delegation to the Olympic Games next month.

Stephens called it a good first step and an “all-too-rare positive development” on the peninsula. The decrease in potential for disruptions to next month’s games could—according to Stephens-be seen as the first deliverable by South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-In, on a promise to reengage with the North.

Ambassador Stephens said it was not surprising that denuclearization did not come up during Tuesday’s talks, noting North Korea’s position that the issue is one to be dealt with the United States. Ambassador Stephens speculated that once the Olympics closed, the peninsula might experience a period of reduced tensions along with confidence building. However, she believes that come the spring there would still remain important questions about military exercises as well as nuclear weapons.

Asked about news reports of discussions within the Trump administration on the possibility of targeted strikes against North Korean military sites, Ambassador Stephens described it as a very risky strategy, adding that the discussions alone could prove unnerving in South Korea as well as North Korea.

The full interview is available on PBS.

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Former Ambassador Stephens discusses talks between North and South Korea on PBS News Hour
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In advance of talks between North Korea and South Korea, APARC’s Daniel Sneider says the most immediate threat on the peninsula actually comes from the latter.

In a piece for The Hill, Sneider writes that by embracing North Korea’s offer for dialogue, South Korean President Moon Jae-in—who seeks a peaceful Olympic Games, good relations with China, and reduced tensions with the North—risks diminishing America’s presence in the region.

The challenge for the U.S. administration, accordng to Sneider, is to afford South Korea freedom to explore opportunities for dialogue, while ensuring that such freedom does not result in driving the United States off the peninsula.

The full article is available at The Hill

 

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  Joint Security Area;  Panmunjom, DPRK (North Korea) Flickr/John Pavelka
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Commenting on President Trump's twelve-day trip to Asia, FSI senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Program at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Donald K. Emmerson noted that Trump "failed . . . to significantly alter the calculus brings to bear on North Korea."

Trump's approach to foreign policy, one based on forming personal relationships, might have caused him to get the mistaken idea "that he had made a real impact and everybody was getting along," Emmerson suggested.

Emmerson likewise questioned any substantial trade-related results coming out of the trip, saying that many touted achievements were either "already on the table" or were non-binding memoranda of understanding.

That said, Emmerson stressed that if in time President Trump were to realize the dearth of interest in bilateral trade deals, and that the "U.S. is making China great again," he could shift U.S. policy.

The full article is available from the Sinclair Broadcast Group.

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Presidents Trump and Xi take part in a business event in Beijing during Trump's twelve-day Asia tour.
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Former U.S. ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens spoke on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia" about President Trump's Asia trip on the eve of his arrival in China.

Stephens noted that in canceling a trip to the DMZ--more or less a presidential tradition on visits to Korea--Trump did the "right thing" by instead focusing on the "must-do" on this first trip of reassuring South Koreans on the U.S. commitment to its alliance with the Republic of Korea.

Both North Korean and Trump administration rhetoric seems to have cooled off in recent days; Stephens noted that Trump seems to have "gotten the message" about the importance of the relationship with South Korea and the level of nervousness in the country. 

Ambassador Stephens commented on the feasibility of beginning talks with North Korea and what additional pressure might be required to get the North to the table. She noted that if denuclearizing were a precondition for talks, they wouldn't happen.

She speculated on what President Trump might ask the Chinese to do to up the pressure on North Korea, for example, cutting off oil exports. She also suggested that when it comes to talking about trade, the emphasis might be on announcing deals and Trump might act as "salesman-in-chief."

The full interview is available on Bloomberg TV.

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About the event: North Korea has, or is about to have, a capability to launch missiles with nuclear warheads against the United States. Can we depend on deterrence, as we did against the Soviet Union, to prevent war?  Or is deterrence not a realistic option, given the nature of the North Korean regime?

About the panel:

Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University. He also serves as Project Chair for the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Initiative on New Dilemmas in Ethics, Technology, and War. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University. From 1984 to 1985, he served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon. Sagan has also served as a consultant to the office of the Secretary of Defense and at the Sandia National Laboratory and the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He has authored and edited numerous publications.

Mira Rapp-Hooper is a Senior Research Scholar in Law at Yale Law School, as well as a Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center. She studies and writes on US-China relations and national security issues in Asia. Dr. Rapp-Hooper was formerly a Senior Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), a Fellow with the CSIS Asia Program, and the Director of the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. She was also a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Rapp-Hooper’s academic writings have appeared in Political Science Quarterly, Security Studies, and Survival. Her policy writings have appeared in The National Interest, Foreign Affairs, and The Washington Quarterly, and her analysis has been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and on NPR, MSNBC, and the BBC. Dr. Rapp-Hooper was the Asia Policy Coordinator for the 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign. She is a David Rockefeller Fellow of the Trilateral Commission, an associate editor with the International Security Studies Forum, and a senior editor at War on the Rocks. She holds a B.A. in history from Stanford University and an M.A., M.Phil., and Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University.

Vipin Narang is an Associate Professor of Political Science at MIT and a member of MIT’s Security Studies Program. He received his Ph.D. from the Department of Government, Harvard University in May 2010, where he was awarded the Edward M. Chase Prize for the best dissertation in international relations. He holds a B.S. and M.S. in chemical engineering with distinction from Stanford University and an M. Phil with Distinction in international relations from Balliol College, Oxford University, where he studied on a Marshall Scholarship. He has been a fellow at Harvard University’s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, a predoctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and a Stanton junior faculty fellow at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. His research interests include nuclear proliferation and strategy, South Asian security, and general security studies.

Moderating the panel is James Fearon, Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University.  He is also a Senior Fellow at the Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies.  His research focuses  on political violence – interstate, civil, and ethnic conflict in particular.  In addition he has worked on aspects of democratic theory and the impact of democracy on foreign policy.  He has published numerous articles in scholarly journals, including “How Does Development Assistance Affect Collective Action Capacity? Results from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia” (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein, in American Political Science Review), “Self-Enforcing Democracy” (Quarterly Journal of Economics),  “Iraq’s Civil War” (Foreign Affairs), “Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States” (co-authored with David Laitin, in International Security), “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War” (co-authored with David Laitin, in American Political Science Review), and “Rationalist Explanations for War” (International Organization).  Fearon was elected member of the National Academy of Sciences in 2012 and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2002.  He has been a Program Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research since 2004.  He served as Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanford from 2008-2010.

 

William J. Perry Conference Room

Encina Hall, 2nd floor

616 Serra Street

Stanford, CA 94305

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E202
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-2715 (650) 723-0089
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The Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science
The Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education  
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Scott D. Sagan is Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, and the Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He also serves as Co-Chair of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the Pentagon.

Sagan is the author of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (W.W. Norton, 2012). He is the co-editor of Insider Threats (Cornell University Press, 2017) with Matthew Bunn; and co-editor of The Fragile Balance of Terror (Cornell University Press, 2022) with Vipin Narang. Sagan was also the guest editor of a two-volume special issue of DaedalusEthics, Technology, and War (Fall 2016) and The Changing Rules of War (Winter 2017).

Recent publications include “Creeds and Contestation: How US Nuclear and Legal Doctrine Influence Each Other,” with Janina Dill, in a special issue of Security Studies (December 2025); “Kettles of Hawks: Public Opinion on the Nuclear Taboo and Noncombatant Immunity in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Israel”, with Janina Dill and Benjamin A. Valentino in Security Studies (February 2022); “The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in U.S. Nuclear Doctrine” with Allen S. Weiner in International Security (Spring 2021); “Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power?” with Benjamin A. Valentino in International Security (Fall 2020); and “Just War and Unjust Soldiers: American Public Opinion on the Moral Equality of Combatants” and “On Reciprocity, Revenge, and Replication: A Rejoinder to Walzer, McMahan, and Keohane” with Benjamin A. Valentino in Ethics & International Affairs (Winter 2019).

In 2022, Sagan was awarded Thérèse Delpech Memorial Award from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace at their International Nuclear Policy Conference. In 2017, he received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational complacency" in the international studies community. Sagan was also the recipient of the National Academy of Sciences William and Katherine Estes Award in 2015, for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons and the causes of nuclear proliferation. The award, which is granted triennially, recognizes “research in any field of cognitive or behavioral science that advances understanding of issues relating to the risk of nuclear war.” In 2013, Sagan received the International Studies Association's International Security Studies Section Distinguished Scholar Award. He has also won four teaching awards: Stanford’s 1998-99 Dean’s Award for Distinguished Teaching; Stanford's 1996 Hoagland Prize for Undergraduate Teaching; the International Studies Association’s 2008 Innovative Teaching Award; and the Monterey Institute for International Studies’ Nonproliferation Education Award in 2009.     

Co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Mira Rapp-Hooper
Vipin Narang

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Stanford University
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Stanford, CA 94305-6165

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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences
Professor of Political Science
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James Fearon is the Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences and a professor of political science. He is a Senior Fellow at FSI, affiliated with CISAC and CDDRL. His research interests include civil and interstate war, ethnic conflict, the international spread of democracy and the evaluation of foreign aid projects promoting improved governance. Fearon was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2012 and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2002. Some of his current research projects include work on the costs of collective and interpersonal violence, democratization and conflict in Myanmar, nuclear weapons and U.S. foreign policy, and the long-run persistence of armed conflict.

Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Michael Minyoung Lee has won the 6th annual Korea Program Prize for Writing in Korean Studies for his paper entitled "North Korean Food Shortages, 1945-1946." Michael graduated from the Center for East Asian Studies M.A. program in 2017. Yong Suk Lee, Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, said about Michael's paper: "Michael Lee's paper sheds light on a relatively less known historical fact regarding famine in Soviet occupied northern Korea after World War 2. He presents multiple evidence from different perspectives and his writing is clear."

Sponsored by the Korea Program and the Center for East Asian Studies, the writing prize recognizes and rewards outstanding examples of writing by Stanford students in an essay, term paper or thesis produced during the current academic year in any discipline within the area of Korean studies, broadly defined. The competition is open to both undergraduate and graduate students.

Past Recipients:

 

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2017 writing prize
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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un now boasts that his country is in the final stages of completing a nuclear weapons development program, one capable of loading nuclear warheads on an ICBM that can reach the mainland United States.

Six years after his succession to power, Kim has continued to defy international pressure, conducting four nuclear tests and firing eighty-five ballistic missiles. Recently, the world has witnessed an extraordinary, high-intensity war of words between President Trump and the North Korean leader. Military tension mounts higher than ever as we enter a new phase, arguably the most serious one in decades, in dealing with a dangerous and bellicose North Korea.

There are many questions: Will North Korea conduct an atmospheric nuclear test? When will their weapons program really be capable of hitting the continental United States? How will the U.S. government respond to that capability? Will the likely result be war on the Korean Peninsula? What about the China factor?

Ambassador Kim will discuss some of these questions through his personal experiences at the Six-Party Talks, the UN Security Council and through his contacts with North Korean officials.

Philippines Conference Room
Encina Hall, 3rd Floor
616 Serra Street
Stanford, CA 94305
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Kim Sook former South Korean Ambassador to U.N; 2014-15 Pantech Fellow at APARC, Stanford University <i>former South Korean Ambassador to U.N; 2014-15 Pantech Fellow at APARC, Stanford University</i>
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In association with the Sejong Institute, a think tank in South Korea, Shorenstein APARC published a report from the seventeenth session of the semiannual Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum held on June 29, 2017. The forum continued its focus on Northeast Asian regional dynamics, the North Korea problem, and the state of the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. Participants engaged in candid, productive discussion about issues relating to these topics.

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In Superficial Korea, a book recently published in South Korea, Shorenstein APARC director Gi-Wook Shin shares his observations on and provides recommendations for social maladies currently affecting Korean society. Shin sees a problematic level of superficiality in a number of aspects of today's Korea: its interpersonal relations, policies and social systems, and rules and regulations. After explaining his diagnosis in the first part of the book, Shin goes on to offer a prescription in the form of lessons that can be learned from Silicon Valley’s culture. The final section of the book touches on issues in which he specializes as an academic—and which have been of the utmost interest to Koreans in recent days—that is, South Korea’s relations with North Korea and other players on the global stage.

Superficial Korea is in Korean; interviews with Dr. Shin and reviews of the book can be found below:

Stanford Daily (interview, in English)

Korea Herald (Op-Ed, in English)

Korea Daily (interview, in Korean)

Sisa Journal (interview, in Korean)

Munwha Ilbo (interview, in Korean)

Yonhap News (book review, in Korean)

Munwha Ilbo (book review, in Korean)

Kyunghyang Shinmun (book review, in Korean)

 

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