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In this paper we are pursuing the following objectives:

  1. document the existing water management institutional forms throughout China, their evolution over time and across provinces;
  2. describe the actors and their roles and other governance issues in WUAs and compare them to traditional collectively managed irrigation systems and other types of reform-oriented irrigation institutions (especially contracting);
  3. analyze the determinants of the emergence of these institutions throughout China in order to understand the role of scarcity of water resources; the size of the community's irrigation system, policy and other village characteristics in their emergence.

To meet these objectives, the rest of the paper is organized as follows.

First, we will discuss the dilemma of China's surface water policy. Because of the nature of China's farming practices - since almost all of China's agriculture is based smallholders who farm small, dispersed plots, it is hard to use water pricing policy in surface water areas. This makes irrigation management reform important and it is with this motivation that we launch our study of WUAs and other water management reforms, their governance and determinants.

In the second section we discuss the data. In the following two sections, the spread of WUAs, their governance and their other characteristics are examined - first descriptively and then with multivariate analysis. The final section concludes.

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Scott Rozelle
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As water becomes scarcer in northern China, designing policies that can induce water users to save water has become one of the most important tasks facing China's leader. Past water policies may not be a solution for the water scarcity problem in the long run. This paper looks at a new water policy: increasing water prices so as to provide water users with direct incentives to save water. Using a methodology that allows us to incorporate the resource constraints, we are able to recover the true price of water with a set of plot level data. Our results show that farmers are quite responsive if the correct price signal is used, unlike estimates of price elasticities that are based on traditional methods. Our estimation results show that water is severely under priced in our sample areas in China. As a result, water users are not likely to respond to increases in water prices. Thus as the first step to establishing an effective water pricing policy, policy makers must increase water price to the level of VMP so that water price reflects the true value of water, the correct price signal. Increases in water prices once they are set at the level of VMP, however, can lead to significant water savings. However, our analysis also shows that higher water prices also affect other aspects of the rural sector. Higher irrigation costs will lower the production of all crops, in general, and that of grain crops, in particular. Furthermore, when facing higher irrigation costs, households suffer income losses. Crop income distribution also worsens with increases in water prices.

In summary, our paper provides both good news and bad news to policy makers. On the one hand, water pricing policies obviously have great potential for curbing demand and helping policy makers address the emerging water crisis. On the other hand, dealing with the negative production and income impacts of higher irrigation cost will pose a number of challenges to policy makers. In other words, if China's leaders plan to increase water prices to address the nation's water crisis, an integrated package of policies will be needed to achieve water savings without hurting rural incomes or national food security.

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China's economy has experienced remarkable growth since its economic reform and is expected to maintain high growth in the coming decades. This paper looks at the implications of China's rapid growth and emergence in the global economy for its own economy and for the rest of world, with specific focus on Australia. The conclusion is that China will emerge as the second largest importer and exporter in the world by 2020. Although imports of many land-intensive agricultural products are projected to rise, exports of most labor-intensive products (eg horticulture, fishery and processed foods) are also going to grow in the future, which implies that China needs to continue restructuring its agricultural sector as the economy moves towards globalisation. The results also show that the opportunities from China's economic growth for the rest of world are projected to far surpass the adverse effects. With the exception of Russia, it is predicted that Australia will be the single biggest winner from China's rise in world markets.

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The goal of this study is to discuss why China and perhaps other developing countries may not need a refuge policy for Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. We describe in detail the different elements that a nation, especially a developing one, should be considering when deciding if a refuge policy is needed. Drawing on a review of scientific data, economic analysis of other cases and a simulation exercise using a bio-economic model that we have produced to examine this question, we show that in the case of Bt cotton in China, the approach of not requiring special cotton refuges is defensible.

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Siegfried S. Hecker, a prominent U.S. expert on nuclear technology and policy, was appointed co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University on Jan. 16. He also assumed positions as a professor (research) in the Stanford School of Engineering's Department of Management Science and Engineering and a senior fellow at FSI.

Hecker's "scientific achievements as a metallurgist, his leadership and talent as the head of a renowned U.S. Department of Energy laboratory and his decades-long dedication to improving global security make him an extraordinary choice to help direct CISAC in the years ahead," FSI Director Coit D. Blacker said, announcing the appointment.

Political science Professor Scott Sagan, whom Hecker joins as a co-director of CISAC, said he is "thrilled to have Sig Hecker as a partner" in leading the center. "Hecker follows in a long line of distinguished scientists--Sidney Drell, William Perry, Michael May, and Christopher Chyba--who have become leaders of CISAC's efforts to produce cutting edge policy-relevant research," Sagan noted. "Stanford University is extremely fortunate to be able to have a scholar-practitioner of Sig Hecker's stature coming to CISAC to help guide our multidisciplinary efforts to address the tough security challenges facing the world right now."

The center, traditionally co-directed by a scientist and social scientist since its founding in 1983 by physicist Drell and political scientist John Lewis, draws from a range of disciplines to focus on current problems in international security.

An emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Hecker has fostered U.S. cooperation with Russian nuclear laboratories for 15 years to secure the vast stockpile of former Soviet nuclear weapons and materials. At CISAC, where he has been a visiting professor since fall 2005, Hecker has contributed to international projects to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and secure materials for making them.

Looking forward to the new assignments, Hecker said, "I have enjoyed the Stanford environment--the students, faculty, and the great range of international issues being examined. I look forward to the new challenge of leading CISAC with Scott Sagan, as well as teaching and research in management science and engineering."

With Lewis, Hecker has made three visits to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in the last three years, gaining rare access to and expertise on North Korea's nuclear weapons program. His reports on the program's status provide valuable insights to U.S. diplomats and scholars seeking to resolve the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula. With Sagan, Hecker has participated in meetings with security experts from China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States to secure nuclear weapons and materials and lessen tensions in South Asia.

Last fall, Hecker co-taught Stanford's popular management science and engineering course, Technology and National Security, with CISAC and MS&E colleague Perry. Hecker lectured on nuclear weapons history and technical fundamentals, nuclear terrorism, and North Korea.

"Dr. Hecker has added 'outstanding professor' to his list of many accomplishments," Perry said. "I am delighted he has accepted this appointment and look forward to working with him."

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Professor Dittmer received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1971. His scholarly expertise is the study of contemporary China. He teaches courses on contemporary China, Northeast Asia, and the Pacific Rim.

His current research interests include a study of the impact of reform on Chinese communist authority, a survey of patterns of informal politics in East Asia, and a project on the China-Taiwan-US triangle in the context of East Asian regional politics. Professor Dittmer's recently published books and monographs include Sino-Soviet Normalization and Its International Implications (University of Washington Press, 1992), China's Quest for National Identity (with Samuel Kim, Cornell University Press, 1993), China Under Modernization (Westview Press, 1994), and South Asia's Nuclear Crisis (M. E. Sharpe, 2005.)

Dr. Dittmer's talk is the second seminar of the winter quarter South Asia Colloquium Series.

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Lowell Dittmer Professor, Political Science Speaker University of California, Berkeley
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The islamization process in Pakistan is at the core of the contradictions and identity conflict of Pakistan. It is the permanent attempt to rewrite the history whose founding fathers intended to make the homeland for the Muslims of the Indian Subcontinent, much the against the will of the clergy. However it is also an instrument of perpetuation in power of a largely secular military, which constantly manipulates Islamic symbols.

Although widely discussed, the process of islamization in Pakistan has remained relatively limited. No elected legislature went beyond the expression of the idea of the supremacy of the Islamic law. No elected legislature ever passed a somewhat substantial provision. Despite an increasingly strong, or at least vocal religious pressure, the constitution and the legislation of the Pakistani state are still based on a compromise between modernist institutions and ever more pressing religious demands, yet still limited. The supremacy of the Sharia is regularly reaffirmed, yet its implementation does not progress.

The presentation will analyze the impact of the islamization policies, less however on the legal and constitutional system than on the economic, political and social life of Pakistan. Starting from the observation that the islamization process is more limited that it may seem, the presentation will draw on to say that this process reinforces more than it challenges the existing political and social order, and its most salient political expression, the current military regime, by preventing, on the one side the emergence of any real alternative political project and, although in a more pragmatic manner, by bringing back in mainstream politics the fraction of the social body which could possibly be tempted by more radical means of actions.

In this perspective, four dimensions will be more specifically studied: 1) The evolution of the role of religious movements and parties within the Pakistani state; 2) The relationship between these same religious movements and parties and the Pakistani establishment; 3) The specific role of the madrasas in this relation; 4) The relation the religious parties entertains with democracy.

Frederic Grare is a visiting scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He will lead a project assessing U.S. and European policies toward Pakistan and, where appropriate, recommending alternatives with Ashley J. Tellis and George Perkovich. Grare will focus on the tension between stability and democratization in Pakistan, including challenges of sectarian conflict, Islamist political mobilization, and educational reform. Grare also will facilitate interactions between U.S. experts and officials and European counterparts on the main policy challenges in South Asia.

Grare is a leading expert and writer on South Asia, having served most recently in the French embassy in Pakistan and from 1999 to 2003 in New Delhi as director of the Centre for Social Sciences and Humanities. Grare has written extensively on security issues, Islamist movements, and sectarian conflict in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He also has edited the volume, India, China, Russia: Intricacies of an Asian Triangle.

His most recent publications include: "India, China, Russia: Intricacies of an Asian Triangle, with Gilles Boquerat"(eds), (New Delhi, India Research Press, 2003); "Pakistan and the Afghan Conflict, 1979-1985: At the Turn of the Cold War" (Karachi, Oxford University Press, 2003); "Political Islam in the Indian Subcontinent: The Jamaat-i-Islami" (New Delhi, Manohar, 2001)

Grare has an advanced degree from Paris Institut d'Etudes Politiques and received his Ph.D. from the Graduate Institute of International Studies.

Dr. Grare's talk is the first seminar of the winter quarter South Asia Colloquium Series.

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Frederic Grare Visiting Scholar Speaker Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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China once again is in the midst of a major reshuffling of leadership. The upcoming 17th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will form a new Politburo and its Standing Committee. While the current top leaders, including Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, will most likely remain in power for the next term, a new generation of leaders, known as the "Fifth Generation," is poised to emerge in the national leadership.

Candidates to succeed Hu, Wen and other top leaders will become known within a year. Dr. Li will present his analysis of who the front-runners of the Fifth Generation are, how the selection of the possible successors reflects the changing nature of Chinese elite politics, in what aspects this rising generation of leaders differs from their predecessors, and how these differences will change the way in which China will be governed.

Cheng Li is the William R. Kenan Professor of Government at Hamilton College in New York and a visiting fellow at the newly-established John L. Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Dr. Li grew up in Shanghai during the Cultural Revolution. In 1985, he came to the United States where he received an M.A. in Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Princeton University. He is the author of Rediscovering China: Dynamics and Dilemmas of Reform, and Chinas Leaders: The New Generation, and the editor of the recent book, Bridging Minds Across the Pacific: The Sino-U.S. Educational Exchange 1978-2003. Dr. Li is also a columnist for the Stanford University journal, China Leadership Monitor.

Dr. Li has advised a wide range of U.S. government, education, research, business and not-for-profit organizations on work in China. Dr. Li is a director of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a trustee of the Institute of Current World Affairs, a member of the Academic Advisory Group of the Congressional U.S.-China Working Group, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations' Task Force on U.S. policy toward China, a member of Committee of 100, and a member of the U.S. National Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific.

This talk is part of the "China's Year of Decision" colloquium series sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.

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Cheng Li William R. Kenan Professor of Government Speaker Hamilton College
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