Who is East Asia’s Voldemort?
In a March 22 interview with the Seoul Shinmun newspaper, KSP associate director David Straub discussed the U.S. role in bringing together South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Japanese Prime Minister Abe in a trilateral summit with President Obama to address the North Korea problem.
In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:
Guangmu Liu, "International Strategy of Drilling Enterprise of China National Petroleum Corporation"
Keiichi Uruga, "Industrial Policy Under the Default of Japanese Government Bond"
Tun Wang, "The Financial Market Trading Business in U.S. Banks"
Kenji Yanada, "Heightening of Banking Regulations and Banking Supervision"
Philippines Conference Room
Guangmu Liu is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2013-14. He has worked at BoHai Drilling Company (BHDC), a subsidiary company of China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) for 22 years. His positions included the vice manager of the second drilling company and general manager of the number one drilling company, and most recently, he was responsible for the overseas market. Currently, he serves as the assistant president of BHDC. Liu received his bachelor's degree from the University of Geology of Chengdu and his master's degree in the oil and gas field from JiangHan Petroleum University.
Tun Wang is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2013-14. Wang has worked at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) for 17 years. Currently, he is the deputy head of the Global Market Department in the head office in Beijing. He received his bachelor's degree in Electronics and IT Systems from Ocean University of China and his master's degree in Finance from the Graduate School of People's Bank of China. His work experience and research activities focus on financial market trading business.
Kenji Yanada is a corporate affiliate visiting fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) for 2013-14. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, he started his career in 1984 as a banker for Fuji Bank (currently Mizuho Bank). After 20 years of experience as a banker, Yanada served as deputy director at the Government of Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA), where he was in charge of supervising banks and analyzing for financial institutions. Yanada graduated from Keio University with a bachelor's degree in economics.
The William J. Perry Project educates and engages the public on the dangers of nuclear weapons to the safety and security of the world. Founded by former Secretary of Defense William J. Perry, the WJPP’s core product is Perry’s memoir – expected out later this year – which tells his story of coming of age in the nuclear era, his role in trying to shape and contain it, and how his thinking changed about the threat these weapons pose today.
Japan has the highest debt to GDP ratio among advanced countries, and many studies find that the current fiscal regime of Japan is not sustainable. Yet, the Japanese government bond continues to enjoy low and stable interest rates. The most plausible explanation for such an apparent anomaly is that the bonds are predominantly held by the Japanese residents, who are willing to absorb increasing amount of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) without requiring high yields. Even if the Japanese residents continue to invest their new saving into the government bonds, however, Japan's fiscal situation is not sustainable, which this paper shows through simulations under various scenarios. In all of the scenarios that assume the fiscal policy stance of the Japanese government does not change in the future, we find that the amount of government debt will exceed the private sector financial assets available for the government debt purchase in the next 10 years or so. The paper also shows that sufficiently large tax increases and/or expenditure cuts in the future would put the government debt on a sustainable path. Thus, if the market believes that Japan will embark on such fiscal consolidation in the next 10 years, at most, the low JGB yields are justifiable. If and when the expectation changes, however, a fiscal crisis can be triggered even before the government debt hits the ceiling of the private sector financial assets.