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The objective of this research project was to (1) collect and analyze enterprise budget data for the production of cotton in major production regions in the People's Republic of China; (2) Compare and contrast the cost of production of Bt and conventional cotton in the these regions; and (3) Compare and contrast the information for China with representative budgets for U.S. cotton production to assess current relative competitiveness between the two and potential implications for Chinese cotton import demand. The survey was conducted on 1027 plots of 450 farmers in 5 provinces, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and
Hubei in 2005. The results indicate the cost of production of cotton in China on average is significantly less on a per acre basis than in the U.S. Differences are sensitive to assumptions regarding labor costs in China. In addition with high yields per acre some U.S. cotton producing regions remain competitive despite labor cost disadvantages. Recent reports indicate that despite cost of production advantages the desire on the part of the Chinese government to maintain grain production may discourage increased cotton production in certain regions decreasing potential negative effects on future cotton import demand. The survey effort was extended in 2006 to include 480 plots of 120 farmers in the largest single cotton producing province, Xinjiang.

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Scott Rozelle
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Professor David G. Victor presented on the future of natural gas in India at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi. His presentation showed how global gas prices, demand from China, domestic coal prices, and industrial demand in India will shape future use of natural gas in the country's fuel mix. Favorable regulation will be needed to keep natural gas competitive in India.
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This paper investigates whether there is a non-linear relationship between income and the private transfers received by households in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, expansion of public social security and other transfer programs is unlikely to crowd out private transfers, contrary to concerns first raised by Barro and Becker. There is little existing evidence for crowding out effects in the literature, but this may be because they have been obscured by methods that ignore non-linearities. If donors switch from altruistic motivations to exchange motivations as recipient income increases, a sharp non-linear relationship between private transfers and income may result. In fact, threshold regression techniques find such non-linearity in the Philippines and after accounting for these there is evidence of serious crowding out, with 30 to 80 percent of private transfers potentially displaced for low-income households [Cox, D., Hansen, B., and Jimenez, E., 2004, How responsive are private transfers to income? Evidence from a laissez-faire economy, Journal of Public Economics.]. To see if these non-linear effects occur more widely, semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countriesChina, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Vietnam. The results of our paper suggest that non-linear crowding-out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries. The transfer derivatives under a variety of assumptions only range between 0 and -0.08. If our results are valid, expansions of public social security to cover the poorest households need not be stymied by offsetting private responses.

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Scott Rozelle
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Complementarity between incentive instruments is regarded as one of the central themes of theoretical research in the economics of industrial organization in recent years. However, despite its importance, empirical evidence on the existence of complementarities is limited. In this paper we identify complementarities between incentive mechanisms used by firm-owners to motivate managers. Using a multi-task principal-agent framework we consider a problem in which the owner uses two incentive instruments, profit-sharing and investment-bonding, to motivate the manager in two tasks, production and asset-maintenance. Our theoretical model yields testable hypothesis regarding the complementary and individual effects of incentives on performance. We test the hypothesis of our theoretical model against a dataset on 56 rural firms in China, observed in 1988 and 1995. Our descriptive results clearly show that the two instruments are complements. Our econometric model using a panel regression framework confirms that significant complementaries exist in terms of the impact of the two instruments on performance. In order to evaluate the robustness of our results we account for unobserved differences in firm quality using fixed effects and instrumental variables regressions. Support for the complementarity hypothesis is also found after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity.

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Scott Rozelle
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Dairy farms in China's suburban areas have been playing an important role in providing urban markets with fresh milk. With the rising demand for fluid milk and dairy products in the cities, there is a perception that small and scattered dairy farms in China's provinces are gradually disappearing and more concentrated dairy cattle farming is being formed near suburban areas. This paper uses farm-level survey data and stochastic input distance functions to make estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) on suburban dairy farms, as well as for the entire dairy sector. The results show that over the past decade TFP growth has been positive on suburban dairy farms, and this rise in productivity has been driven mostly by technological change. However, at the same time we find that, on average, the same farms have been falling behind the advancing technical frontier. We also find one of the drivers of the suburban dairy sector is the relatively robust rate of technological change of these farms, which has been more rapid than on farms in the dairy sector as a whole. The results suggest efforts to achieve greater adoption of new technologies and better advice on how to use the technologies and manage production and marketing within the suburban dairy sector will further advance productivity growth in the sector.

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The PC business is one of the most aggressive in the world, with operating efficiency a critical factor for success. At the time of the HP/Compaq merger in 2000, both PC businesses were losing money. Now, seven years later, HP has reported a record first quarter for PCs, generating $8.7B in revenue, a 17% year over year growth and delivering 4.7% in operating profit, representing 0.8pt improvement year over year. So, what operating model has HP used to accomplish this turnaround and be ranked #1 in the world today? How are resource deployment decisions made? What are the key supply chain considerations? How does the company manage P&L and balance sheet tensions? How will HP continue to stay ahead?

As Vice President and General Manager for HP's Consumer Desktop PC Business Unit, Richard Walker is responsible for a global business that provides desktop PCs and digital entertainment centers to consumer markets. Immediately prior to his current assignment, Richard was Vice President of Emerging Markets, responsible for developing long term strategic growth plans for HP's targeted list of emerging countries, with an initial focus on Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC). Richard received his bachelor's degree in business from Sheffield Hallam University, Sheffield, England. He also serves on the advisory boards for R&D Logic, a San Mateo based life sciences company; Pacific Peninsula Group, a Menlo Park property development company, and SPRIE at Stanford University.

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Richard Walker Vice-President & General Manager, Consumer Desktop PCs Speaker Hewlett-Packard
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Michael A. McFaul
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To the Editor:

You quote President Clinton as saying that ''Russia and China, where the shackles of state socialism once choked off enterprise, are moving to join the thriving community of free democracies'' (news article, May 19). Both are moving to join the community of market economies, but only Russia has taken steps to become a free democracy.

Although flawed in many ways, Russia is an electoral democracy. China is an authoritarian regime. In Russia, leaders are elected, people can assemble, worship and travel freely, and the press can criticize the Government. In China, none of these freedoms exist.

Perhaps Mr. Clinton made a slip of the tongue. But for those who worry that he too often ignores violations of democratic rights in pursuit of market opportunities, this did not look so innocent.

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Michael A. McFaul
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Between a continuation of engagement and a return to containment is a third path: realistic engagement. [Bush] needs to communicate to [Putin] that he believes in the possibility of Russia's integration into Europe and the Western community of states. But he also needs to clearly articulate the real terms of integration, terms that will require Russia to undergo serious political and economic changes. To help Russia integrate into the West, the American strategy must still be engagement, but with more realistic expectations about when, and with real standards for how this integration might occur.

President Bush thus must express his faith in Russia's ability to rejoin Europe as a democratic state with a market economy. Many within Russia do not believe the United States and the new administration in particular want to see Russia as part of the West. Bush should even be so bold as to present NATO membership for Russia as a real goal for the long term. Europe will only be whole and free, a goal Bush's father once articulated, if Russia is a member.

Most Russians still hope their country can become a full-fledged member of Europe. They do not want to become an autocratic ally of China seeking to confront the West. But a decade of disappointed expectations about democracy and markets, coupled with seemingly hostile acts from the West, has fueled doubts about Russia's place in the world. President Bush cannot eliminate this self-doubt overnight, but he can make clear American intentions toward Russia. By articulating a positive but realistic vision for Europe -- whole, free and including Russia -- he can help to reverse Russia's dangerous anti-Western drift.

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