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The JIIA-Stanford Symposium

"The Past, Present, and Future International Order in East Asia"

May 10, 2019

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by the Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA) and Japan Program and the US-Asia Security Initiative of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) of the Freeman Spogli Institue of International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University 
 

Interstate relations in East Asia are at a critical juncture.  The post-World War II regional order, shaped by the San Francisco Treaty of 1951, underpinned by a common commitment to a liberal trade system, and led by the United States, is under stress.  The end of the Cold War, rise of China, and recent changes in America’s foreign policy orientation have transformed the environment that sustained “the San Francisco System.”  It is unclear if this system will be maintained, and if not, what will replace it.  The lineage of the San Francisco System itself reaches back to the post-World War I Versailles-Washington System.  An examination of the success and shortcomings of each of these systems can offer insights on the rise and fall of international systems, especially in an Asian context.  In this symposium, we explore the circumstances that shaped the establishment and evolution of the East Asian political, economic, and security architectures from post-WWI to present; discuss the forces that built and undermined the past and existing architecture; and debate possible regional futures.  We will emphasize the perspectives and roles of the U.S., Japan, and China, and focus on major influencing factors including historical legacies, the changing distribution of global power, alliance structures, and political ideologies.

Agenda

9:00am - 9:30am 
Registration and Breakfast 
 

9:30am - 9:45am 
Welcome Remarks: 
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, APARC, Stanford University 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, APARC, Stanford Univeristy 
 

9:45am - 11:30am 
Panel I: Comparing “the Versailles-Washington System” and “San Francisco System”: Lessons from the Rise and Fall of International Orders in East Asia

Chair: Daniel Sneider, FSI, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Shin Kawashima, University of Tokyo 
Masaya Inoue,  Seikei University 
Lin Hsiao-ting, Hoover Institution, Stanford University 
David Kennedy, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), FSI, Stanford University 
 

11:30am - 1:15pm 
Lunch 

Keynote Speaker: Ambassador Michael Armacost

1:15pm - 3:00pm 
Panel Discussion II: Japanese, U.S. and Chinese Interests and Security

Chair: Kenichiro Sasae, JIIA 

Panelists: 
Ken Jimbo, Keio University 
Tetsuo Kotani, JIIA 
Mike Lampton, APARC, Stanford University 
Jim Schoff, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) 
 

3:00pm - 3:30pm 
Coffee Break 
 

3:30pm - 5:15pm 
Panel Discussion III: Alternative Future East Asia Systems

Chair: Phillip Lipscy, FSI, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Jim Fearon, FSI, Stanford University 
Ryo Sahashi, University of Tokyo 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
Tom Christensen, Columbia University 
 

5:15pm - 5:35pm 
Rapporteurs' review of symposium discusisons 
 

5:35pm - 5:45pm 
Closing Remarks: 
Karl Eikenberry, Director, US-Asia Security Initiative, APARC, Stanford University 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
 

5:45pm - 6:30pm 
Reception (Encina Lobby)

Abstract: President Trump may talk about the Middle East differently than Obama did. But the two seem to share the view that the United States is too involved in the region and should devote fewer resources and less time to it. The reduced appetite for U.S. engagement in the region reflects, not an ideological predilection or an idiosyncrasy of these two presidents, but a deeper change in both regional dynamics and broader U.S. interests. Despite this, the United States exists in a kind of Middle Eastern purgatory—too distracted by regional crises to pivot to other global priorities but not invested enough to move the region in a better direction. This worst-of-both-worlds approach exacts a heavy price. It sows uncertainty among Washington’s Middle Eastern partners, which encourages them to act in risky and aggressive ways. It deepens the American public’s frustration with the region’s endless turmoil, as well as with U.S. efforts to address it. It diverts resources that could otherwise be devoted to confronting a rising China and a revanchist Russia. And all the while, by remaining unclear about the limits of its commitments, the United States risks getting dragged into yet another Middle Eastern conflict. 

Wittes is a co-host of Rational Security, a weekly podcast on foreign policy and national security issues. She writes on U.S. Middle East policy, regional conflict and conflict resolution, the challenges of global democracy, and the future of Arab governance. Her current research is for a forthcoming book, Our SOBs, on the tangled history of America’s ties to autocratic allies.

Wittes joined Brookings in December of 2003. Previously, she served as a Middle East specialist at the U.S. Institute of Peace and director of programs at the Middle East Institute in Washington. She has also taught courses in international relations and security studies at Georgetown University. Wittes was one of the first recipients of the Rabin-Peres Peace Award, established by President Bill Clinton in 1997.

Wittes is the author of "Freedom’s Unsteady March: America’s Role in Building Arab Democracy" (Brookings Institution Press, 2008) and the editor of "How Israelis and Palestinians Negotiate: A Cross-Cultural Analysis of the Oslo Peace Process" (USIP, 2005). She holds a bachelor's in Judaic and Near Eastern studies from Oberlin College, and a master's and doctorate in government from Georgetown University. She serves on the board of the National Democratic Institute, as well as the advisory board of the Israel Institute, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and Women in International Security.

Mara Karlin's Biography: Mara Karlin, PhD, is Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She is also an Associate Professor at SAIS and a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution. Karlin has served in national security roles for five U.S. secretaries of defense, advising on policies spanning strategic planning, defense budgeting, future wars and the evolving security environment, and regional affairs involving the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Most recently, she served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development.  Karlin has been awarded Department of Defense Medals for Meritorious and Outstanding Public Service, among others. She is the author of Building Militaries in Fragile States: Challenges for the United States (University of Pennsylvania Press; 2018).