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President-elect Barack Obama will inherit an Iraq that has experienced substantial improvements in security, but remains rife with unresolved internal issues. If not handled carefully, Iraq's fragile progress could dissolve and the country could become a dangerous foreign policy minefield for yet another American president. Here are the top 10 issues the next administration must address:

  1. Determination of Objectives: The Bush administration invested vast resources in the hopes of achieving maximalist aims in Iraq. Though the results in Iraq have clearly fallen short of those aims, the Obama administration needs to formulate a policy that is more comprehensive and nuanced than "end this war." What can the U.S. realistically achieve? What are the outcomes that the U.S. can or cannot live with? How does Iraq fit in to a cogent strategy for the broader region, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran?
  2. Approach to Withdrawal: The Status of Forces Agreement moving forward between the U.S. and Iraqi governments, combined with the urgent need for reinforcements in Afghanistan, will shape the contours of withdrawal. But what if Baghdad wants to change the schedule? Will changing conditions on the ground affect the pace and process of withdrawal? Is Washington willing to extend or accelerate the current "time horizon" if the security situation significantly deteriorates?
  3. Management of the Security Transition: Earlier attempts to transfer security responsibility to Iraqi forces in 2006 encountered many problems. Do current assessments of when provinces will be ready for transition accurately reflect conditions on the ground? Can the U.S. effectively "thin out" its forces, while maintaining robust enabling capabilities (intelligence, air support, medical evacuation) in critical areas?
  4. Development of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF): America must help the Iraqi forces foster competence and professionalism and prevent the reemergence of sectarianism in the ranks. To make this happen, U.S. military advisors will likely be needed for years to come, particularly to help develop support capabilities that the Iraqis currently lack. Is this advisory effort effective as currently organized and prepared? How will advisors be allocated to meet growing demands in Afghanistan as well as Iraq? Can the Defense Department accelerate its Foreign Military Sales program to provide the ISF with badly-needed equipment?
  5. Sunni Reintegration: The Sunni Awakening and Sons of Iraq groups are facing an uncertain future as they transition from American control to Iraqi payroll and command structures. How can the U.S. help ensure that Sunnis are reintegrated into Iraqi society so they have a stake in the political system and do not return to the insurgency?
  6. Status of Kirkuk: Kirkuk, the oil-rich city of northern Iraq claimed by both Kurds and Arabs, will be a flashpoint for continued conflict. What role can the U.S. play to minimize the potential for re-escalation of Arab-Kurd violence over Kirkuk? Should U.S. policy emphasize indefinite postponement of this issue, broker a territorial compromise, or encourage Iraqis to "give" the city to one side and focus instead on sharing oil revenues?
  7. Dealing with Iranian influence: As Iraq's neighbor, Iran has a natural interest in influencing Iraq's domestic affairs. However, Tehran's political obstructionism and support for militants ultimately undermines Iraqi as well as American interests. How much and what types of Iranian influence in Iraqi affairs can the U.S. tolerate? How can the U.S. help Iraqis counter the most destabilizing and pernicious Iranian influences?
  8. Future of Political Relations with Iraq: How does the U.S. envision its relations with an emerging sovereign Iraq that is likely to exhibit erratic behavior on the international stage? How and to what extent should America insert itself in Iraqi politics? Should the U.S. government actively seek a balance of power between Iraq's major factions, so as to spread the risk and avoid linking itself to the fortunes of any one group? Or should it remain on the sidelines, so as to extricate ourselves as best we can?
  9. Economic Development: Iraq's economy is currently 90 percent dependent on oil exports, resulting in substantial volatility in revenue. How can the U.S. help Iraq diversify its economic base? How can the U.S. encourage greater foreign investment in the Iraqi economy beyond the energy sector? What incentives could Baghdad provide provincial and local officials to improve transparency and revenue sharing mechanisms?
  10. Return of Refugees: Huge numbers of Iraqis fled to Jordan and Syria to escape sectarian violence. Does Baghdad owe those nations financial aid? As refugees return, what is the best way to handle this influx? Is America committed to reestablishing the mixed-sect districts that existed prior to 2006? Is a level of sectarian separation necessary to keep the peace?

No panacea exists for Iraq's remaining ills, and no amount of planning will account for all of its complex and sometimes contradictory dynamics. But with America's direct influence likely to wane as its troop presence diminishes, it is increasingly important to anticipate the full spectrum of difficult issues and choices ahead, in order to devise the best way forward for the United States and Iraq.

Brian M. Burton is a research assistant at the Center for a New American Security and a graduate student at the Georgetown University Security Studies Program. John Paul Schnapper-Casteras is a predoctoral fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation.

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South Korea's new president, Lee Myung-bak, has taken a hardline approach in dealing with North Korea, effectively signaling the end of former president Kim Dae Jung's once-vaunted "Sunshine Policy." Relations between the two nations have desintegrated in recent months. North Korea experts suggest, however, the the DPRK's growing belligerence toward the South actually follows a consistent pattern that may even help the United States in future negotiations.

North Korea's recent tactics -- including shutting down the successful Kaesong industrial zone -- put President Lee in a difficult position, assorcing to the New York Times. Abandoning his principled stance will be seen as surrender by Lee's supporters, while staying the course will all but guarantee that North Korea shuts down Kaesong, analysts say. That will feed South Korean fears of an unstable peninsula and provide Mr. Lee’s liberal critics with plentiful ammunition.

Perhaps the greatest current concern about North Korea’s recent moves, Korea experts say, is what they may signal about the internal dynamics of the regime. “The more intriguing issue is whether all these developments signal a growing role of the military,” said Daniel C. Sneider, associate director for research at Stanford's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. “And the tour of Kaesong by the military was troubling in that regard.”

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"How grievous are the wounds the rule of law has sustained over the past seven and one-half years?" FSI Director Coit D. Blacker asked at the beginning of FSI's fourth annual conference, Transitions 2009. This year's conference, coming on the heels of the U.S. presidential election, focused on opportunities for change offered by historic transitions at home and abroad. The Nov. 13 invitation-only event was attended by 370 Stanford scholars, outside experts, policymakers, diplomats, and leaders from business, medicine, and law, bringing together some of the sharpest minds in the country to formulate and discuss recommendations for U.S. President-elect Barack Obama and other world leaders.

The day-long conference was structured around a morning and an afternoon plenary, with a luncheon address by Oxford professor and Hoover Institution senior fellow Timothy Garton Ash. In his address, "Beyond the West? New Administrations in the U.S. and Europe Face the Challenge of a Multipolar World," Garton Ash urged concerted action on four projects of visionary realism: global economic order; development, democracy, and the rule of law; energy and the environment; and banishing nuclear weapons. Garton Ash also called for relaunching a strategic partnership among the United States and the 27-member European Union, not as a partnership against other nations, but as an alliance that would reach beyond the West to develop new and effective communities of shared purpose.

The morning plenary, "U.S. Transition 2009: Where Have We Been? Where Are We Going?" brought FSI Director Blacker together with Stanford President Emeritus and constitutional law scholar Gerhard Casper, Center on Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research Director Alan M. Garber and FSI senior fellow and former State Department policy planning director Stephen D. Krasner. Their varying but esteemed backgrounds allowed for a truly interdisciplinary discussion of the policy challenges, priorities, and prospects facing the new American president. "We have just lived through the most extraordinary claims to unbound power since the days of Richard Nixon," said Casper. "This rejection of the rule of law, just like the images of Abu Graib, will be present in the minds of many with whom we have to deal the world over."

The afternoon plenary, "Power and Responsibility: Building International Order in an Era of Transnational Threat," featured Stephen J. Stedman, FSI senior fellow and director of the Ford Dorsey Program in International Studies; Bruce Jones, director of the Center on International Cooperation at New York University; and Carlos Pascual, director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution. The three discussed their ambitious new project, Managing Global Insecurity Project (MGI) (MGI), which aims to provide recommendations and generate momentum for the next American president, the United Nations, and key international partners to launch a strategic effort to build the global partnerships and international institutions needed to meet 21st century trans-border challenges and threats. One key recommendation is to expand the current G-8 to a G-16 of established and rising powers by including China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and major Muslim nations such as Indonesia, Turkey, and Egypt.

Interactive breakout sessions in the morning and afternoon allowed participants to engage in debate with Stanford faculty and outside experts. Breakouts covered such diverse topics as combating HIV in low-resource countries, rethinking the war on terror, leveraging the EU to promote democracy and human rights, whether the U.S. should promote democracy, transitions in African society, working in a global economy, and overcoming barriers to nuclear disarmament.

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center is currently in the midst of a three-year research project, “Divided Memories and Reconciliation.” Divided Memories is a comparative study of the formation of elite and popular historical consciousness of the Sino-Japanese War and Pacific War periods in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the United States with the aim of promoting understanding and reconciliation. The first phase, which has been completed, is a comparative study of high school history textbooks from all five nations, focusing on the way the textbooks treat the wars and their aftermath. The second phase focuses on the impact of popular culture, especially films, on the formation of public memory.
 
The main goal of this international conference is to examine the role of dramatic cinema in shaping popular and elite perceptions of the historical period from 1931-1951, ranging from the treatment of Japanese colonialism to the post-war settlement and the beginnings of the Korean War. Panelists will survey the cinemas of Japan, China, Korea and the United States, identifying important films made during the post-war period and their impact on war memory. The conference will then focus on key issues of the wartime period as they are represented in film, including the Nanjing Massacre, nationalism in Japan, the colonial experience in Korea and the Korean war. Finally, we will examine other forms of popular culture, including manga and anime.
 
This conference is aimed at promoting public discussion crossing national borders and disciplinary boundaries – and producing an edited volume for publication. It will be preceded by a film series, featuring significant films on this wartime period from China, Japan, South Korea and the United States. The series will conclude on the evening of December 4, preceding the opening of the conference, with a showing and discussion of Letters from Iwo Jima with director Clint Eastwood.

Bechtel Conference Center

Michael Berry Associate Professor Panelist University of California, Santa Barbara
David Desser Director, Unit for Cinema Studies Panelist University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Aaron Gerow Assistant Professor of Film Studies and East Asian Languages and Literatures Panelist Yale University
Kyung Hyun Kim Associate Professor Panelist University of California, Irvine
Kyu Hyun Kim Associate Professor Panelist University of California, Davis
Hyangjin Lee Speaker University of Sheffield, UK

Shorenstein APARC
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Research Fellow
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Chiho Sawada holds Ph.D. and M.A. degrees from Harvard University (specialty in East Asian history; secondary field in Western intellectual history) and a B.A. from the University of California, San Diego (major in economics; minor in visual arts). In addition, he has attended the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy (concentration in International Politics and Development), conducted research at numerous other institutions in Asia and the United States, and served stints in U.S. Embassies in Beijing and Seoul.

Dr. Sawada is currently working on several collaborative and individual research projects: (1) Historical Injustice, Redress, and Reconciliation: Global Perspectives, (2) Public Diplomacy and Counter-publics: Asia and Beyond, 1945 to the present, and (3) Student and Urban Cultures in Colonial Contexts. He recently contributed a chapter entitled "Pop Culture, Public Memory, and Korean-Japanese Relations" to the first volume of project one, Rethinking Historical Injustice in East Asia (Routledge, forthcoming). For project two, he is lead organizer of a Stanford workshop and conference, and editing the conference book. Project three is a book project that expands his dissertation to consider colonial context not just in Northeast Asia, but also India, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

Chiho Sawada Visiting Fellow and Professor in the Kiriyama Chair, Center for the Pacific Rim, University of San Francisco & Research Fellow, Stanford University Stanford University Panelist
Robert Brent Toplin Professor of History Panelist University of North Carolina Wilmington
Ban Wang Professor of Chinese Literature Speaker Stanford University
Yingjin Zhang Director, Chinese Studies Program Speaker University of California, San Diego
Scott Bukatman Associate Professor Art and Art History Panelist Stanford University
Alisa Jones Northeast Asia History Fellow Panelist Stanford University
Jenny Lau Associate Professor Panelist San Francisco State University

Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Lecturer in International Policy at the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy
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Daniel C. Sneider is a lecturer in international policy at Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy and a lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford. His own research is focused on current U.S. foreign and national security policy in Asia and on the foreign policy of Japan and Korea.  Since 2017, he has been based partly in Tokyo as a Visiting Researcher at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, where he is working on a diplomatic history of the creation and management of the U.S. security alliances with Japan and South Korea during the Cold War. Sneider contributes regularly to the leading Japanese publication Toyo Keizai as well as to the Nelson Report on Asia policy issues.

Sneider is the former Associate Director for Research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford. At Shorenstein APARC, Sneider directed the center’s Divided Memories and Reconciliation project, a comparative study of the formation of wartime historical memory in East Asia. He is the co-author of a book on wartime memory and elite opinion, Divergent Memories, from Stanford University Press. He is the co-editor, with Dr. Gi-Wook Shin, of Divided Memories: History Textbooks and the Wars in Asia, from Routledge and of Confronting Memories of World War II: European and Asian Legacies, from University of Washington Press.

Sneider was named a National Asia Research Fellow by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the National Bureau of Asian Research in 2010. He is the co-editor of Cross Currents: Regionalism and Nationalism in Northeast Asia, Shorenstein APARC, distributed by Brookings Institution Press, 2007; of First Drafts of Korea: The U.S. Media and Perceptions of the Last Cold War Frontier, 2009; as well as of Does South Asia Exist?: Prospects for Regional Integration, 2010. Sneider’s path-breaking study “The New Asianism: Japanese Foreign Policy under the Democratic Party of Japan” appeared in the July 2011 issue of Asia Policy. He has also contributed to other volumes, including “Strategic Abandonment: Alliance Relations in Northeast Asia in the Post-Iraq Era” in Towards Sustainable Economic and Security Relations in East Asia: U.S. and ROK Policy Options, Korea Economic Institute, 2008; “The History and Meaning of Denuclearization,” in William H. Overholt, editor, North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War?, Harvard Kennedy School of Government, 2019; and “Evolution or new Doctrine? Japanese security policy in the era of collective self-defense,” in James D.J. Brown and Jeff Kingston, eds, Japan’s Foreign Relations in Asia, Routledge, December 2017.

Sneider’s writings have appeared in many publications, including the Washington Post, the New York Times, Slate, Foreign Policy, the New Republic, National Review, the Far Eastern Economic Review, the Oriental Economist, Newsweek, Time, the International Herald Tribune, the Financial Times, and Yale Global. He is frequently cited in such publications.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Sneider was a long-time foreign correspondent. His twice-weekly column for the San Jose Mercury News looking at international issues and national security from a West Coast perspective was syndicated nationally on the Knight Ridder Tribune wire service. Previously, Sneider served as national/foreign editor of the Mercury News. From 1990 to 1994, he was the Moscow bureau chief of the Christian Science Monitor, covering the end of Soviet Communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1985 to 1990, he was Tokyo correspondent for the Monitor, covering Japan and Korea. Prior to that he was a correspondent in India, covering South and Southeast Asia. He also wrote widely on defense issues, including as a contributor and correspondent for Defense News, the national defense weekly.

Sneider has a BA in East Asian history from Columbia University and an MPA from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

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Dong-Young Chung, a former South Korean unification minister and ruling party leader, believes that the Korean Peninsula’s geopolitical location among China, Japan, Russia, and the United States offers major opportunities to the international community. If the legacy of Korean national division caused by the Cold War is overcome, the Korean Peninsula can lend impetus to a "fourth wave" of regional and global cooperation. Minister Chung will review his own extensive talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and discuss the essential role played by the embattled Gaeseong Industrial Complex in reconciling the two Koreas. He will also offer recommendations as to how the incoming U.S. administration can best deal with North Korea.

Dong-Young Chung, currently a visiting scholar at Duke University, is a leading South Korean politician. He was unification minister from 2004 to 2005. A former two-term member of the National Assembly, he served as chairman of the ruling party and ran unsuccessfully for the country’s presidency in 2007. Mr. Chung has a bachelor's degree in Korean History from Seoul National University and a master’s degree from the University of Wales. He began his career as a TV journalist.

Philippines Conference Room

Dong-Young Chung Former Minister of Unification, South Korea Speaker
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Secondhand smoke (SHS) is a known cause of cancer, heart disease, respiratory disease, and other ailments. However, these diseases have a multiplicity of causes. Defendants claim SHS exposures are "low" and other sources created the illness. Plaintiffs claim "high" exposures to SHS caused their disease. In the world of toxic torts litigation involving allegations of injury from secondhand smoke, how does the expert witness use multidisciplinary science and technology in the investigation and establishment of facts and evidence in a court of law? Cases have been brought on behalf of railroad conductors, casino dealers, flight attendants, laborers, nurses, barbers, bartenders, prisoners, office workers, and even condo owners. How have they fared in high stakes litigation, and what does it take to prove a case?

James Repace, MSc., is a biophysicist and an international secondhand smoke consultant who has published 83 scientific papers, 70 of which concern the hazard, exposure, dose, risk, and control of secondhand smoke. He has received numerous national honours, including the Flight Attendant Medical Research Institute Distinguished Professor Award, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Innovator Award, the Surgeon General's Medallion, and a Lifetime Achievement Award from the American Public Health Association. He holds an appointment as a Visiting Assistant Clinical Professor at the Tufts University School of Medicine, and is a consultant to Stanford doing research on secondhand smoke in casinos. He is a former senior policy analyst and scientist with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, serving on both the Air Policy and Indoor Air Staffs, Office of Air and Radiation, and in the Exposure Analysis Division, Office of Research and Development. He served as a consultant to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, U.S. Department of Labor, on its proposed rule to regulate secondhand smoke and indoor air quality. He was also a research physicist at the Naval Research Laboratory in the Ocean Sciences and Electronics Divisions. His degrees are from the Polytechnic University of New York; he has also pursued post-masters' studies at the Catholic University of America in Washington DC.

Yang & Yamazaki Environment &
Energy Building Room 101
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

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