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David Lobell
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FSE Center Fellow David Lobell contributes a commentary to Climate Central on the recent heat wave in Russia, its impact on wheat production and global prices, and what rising temperatures mean in the larger context of climate change and food security.

The heat wave in Russia has captured international media attention, breaking temperature records left and right. It has also captured the attention of commodity traders. You see, in a typical year Russia produces about as much wheat as the United States, and is among the top exporters of wheat flour in the world. But this year, wheat has been decimated in the areas around Moscow, with yield expected to be 30 percent or so below normal. This week Russia announced they are banning all exports of wheat from August 15 through the end of the year. Since late June, wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade have risen by 50 percent, to more than $7 a bushel.

It is, and always will be, impossible to say whether a single event is caused by climate change. But we can ask, is this the type of thing we expect to be more common? In terms of warming, we can say with little doubt that heat waves like this will become more common with global warming. Exactly how much more common is tough to say, but it is likely that the average summer in 2050 will be as warm as the warmest summer in the 20th century. I am not aware of anyone who has done the calculation of exactly how common the type of heat experienced this year will be, but based on projections in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports one can suspect this type of heat wave will be relatively common in Russia in a few decades.

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Michael Armacost recently gave a talk, examining the “rise” of China, at a gathering of international affairs experts. “How should we think of China,” asked Armacost, saying, “Some portray Beijing as a looming military threat; some regard it as our most promising global partner; some expect it to compete fiercely with us for global economic leadership.” Armacost looked at China’s military, trade, economics, and education in relation to the United States and shared thoughts for preparing the United States to become more competitive for the future.

Michael H. Armacost Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Speaker
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Michael H. Armacost recently gave a talk, examining the "rise" of China, at a gathering of international affairs experts. "How should we think of China," asked Armacost, saying, "Some portray Beijing as a looming military threat; some regard it as our most promising global partner; some expect it to compete fiercely with us for global economic leadership." Armacost looked at China's military, trade, economics, and education in relation to the United States and shared thoughts for preparing the United States to become more competitive for the future.

 

 

 

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In a June 4, 2010 policy paper from the Brookings Institution's Center on the United States and Europe, Steven Pifer outlines common objectives to the new START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) but points out that no serious flaws appear to threaten the treaty's chances for ratification. Steven Pifer is former ambassador to Ukraine. Steven Pifer’s career as a Foreign Service officer centered on Europe, the former Soviet Union and arms control. In addition to Kyiv, he had postings in London, Moscow, Geneva and Warsaw as well as on the National Security Council. He is currently at Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, focusing on Ukraine and Russia issues. He is a frequent invited expert speaker at the Forum on Contemporary Europe.
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SAMUEL BOWLES, (PhD, Economics, Harvard University) is Research Professor at the Santa Fe Institute where he heads the Behavioral Sciences Program. He is also Professor of Economics at the University of Siena. He taught economics at Harvard from 1965 to 1973 and at the University of Massachusetts, where he is now emeritus professor. His recent studies on cultural and genetic evolution have challenged the conventional economic assumption that people are motivated entirely by self-interest. These have included the mathematical modeling and agent-based computer simulations of the evolution of altruistic behaviors and behavioral experiments in 15 hunter-gather and other small-scale societies. Recent papers have also explored how organizations, communities and nations could be better governed in light of the fact that altruistic and ethical motives are common in most populations. Bowles' current research also includes theoretical and empirical studies of political hierarchy and wealth inequality and their evolution over the very long run. 

His scholarly papers have appeared in Science, Nature, American Economic Review,Theoretical Population Biology, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Journal of PoliticalEconomy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Behavioral and Brain Science, Philosophy and Public Affairs, Journal of Public Economics, Theoretical Primatology, Proceedings of the National Academy (USA), Harvard Business Review, Journal of Economic Literature, Journal of Economic Perspectives, and the Economic Journal. 

His recent books include Microeconomics: Behavior, Institutions and Evolution(Princeton University Press, 2004), Moral Sentiments and Material Interests: the Foundations of Cooperation in Economic Life (MIT Press, 2005), Unequal Chances: Family Background and Economic Success (Princeton 2004), Poverty Traps (Princeton 2006), Inequality, Cooperation and Environmental Sustainability (Princeton 2005), Globalization and Egalitarian Redistribution (Princeton, 2006), Foundations of Human Sociality: Economic Experiments and Ethnographic Evidence in 15 Small-scale Societies. (Oxford University Press. 2004) and Understanding Capitalism: Competition, Command and Change (Oxford 2004). 

He has also served as an economic advisor to the governments of Cuba, South Africaand Greece, to presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy and Jesse Jackson, to the Congress of South African Trade Unions and to South African President Nelson Mandela.

His next major work, A Cooperative Species: Human reciprocity and its evolution,co-authored with Herbert Gintis, will be published in 2011. Drawing on their recentresearch on cultural and genetic evolution and his empirical studies of behavior in smallscale societies, this work will explain why humans, unlike other animals, engage incooperation among large numbers of people beyond the immediate family. His CastleLectures at Yale University, Machiavelli's Mistake: Why good laws are no substitute forgood citizens, will be published in 2011 by Yale University press.

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Samuel Bowles, PhD. Research Professor Speaker Sante Fe Institute
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The fourth Korea-U.S. West Coast Strategic Forum was held on June 18th at Stanford to discuss current developments in North Korea and North Korea policy, the future of the U.S.-South Korean alliance, and a strategic vision for Northeast Asia. Former senior government officials and other leading experts from the United States and South Korea participated. The forum agenda and the executive summary available.

Participants from the United States included:

  • Michael H. Armacost, Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), Stanford University
  • Michael Chinoy, Senior Fellow, University of Southern California, U.S.-China Institute; former CNN foreign correspondent
  • Siegfried S. Hecker, Co-Director of Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University; and Professor (Research), Department of Management Science and Engineering; FSI Senior Fellow
  • David C. Kang, Professor of International Relations and Business, University of Southern California; Director, USC Korean Studies Institute
  • Stephen D. Krasner, Professor of International Relations and Business, Deputy Director of Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University
  • John W. Lewis, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Emeritus, Stanford University; CISAC Faculty Member; FSI Senior Fellow, by courtesy
  • Kyung-Ae Park, Associate Professor, Korea Foundation Chair, Institute of Asian Research, University of British Columbia
  • William J. Perry, Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor (at FSI and Engineering) and Co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC; FSI Senior Fellow
  • Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein APARC; Director, Korean Studies Program and Tong Yang, Korea Foundation, and Korea Stanford Alumni Chair of Korean Studies; Professor of Sociology; FSI Senior Fellow
  • David Straub, Associate Director, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein APARC; former Director, Office of Korean Affairs, U.S. State Department
  • Philip W. Yun, Vice President for Resource Development, The Asia Foundation
    Participants from South Korea
  • Yun Young Cho, Associate Professor, Chung-Ang University
  • Ro Myung Gong, Chairman, The Sejong Foundation; former Foreign Minister
  • Young Sun Ha, Professor, Seoul National University
  • Yong Ho Kim, Professor, Inha University; former President of Korea Political Science Association
  • Sangho Lee, Research Fellow, The Sejong Institute (Program Coordinator)
  • Yong Ok Park, Governor, South Pyongan Province; former Vice Minister of Defense
  • Sang Woo Rhee, Head, Presidential Commission for National Security Review; former President, Hallym University
  • Gi Woong Son, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Institute for National Unification
  • Dae Sung Song, President, The Sejong Institute
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Francis Fukuyama
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Opponents of immigration reform see illegal immigrants as criminals who will disregard U.S. laws once in the country, writes Frank Fukuyama in the Wall Street Journal, but they are better described as "informal" rather than "illegal." Reform that provides hardworking illegal immigrants with a path to citizenship should be seen as an effort to move people from a dangerous informal system to one based on a rule of law.

There is a widespread perception of a strong link between immigrants and crime. It is common to hear those who oppose immigration argue that the first act illegal immigrants commit on U.S. soil is to break the law-that is, our immigration laws-and that they are ipso facto criminals who will continue to disregard U.S. laws once in the country. Those making this argument are generally steadfastly opposed to any immigration reform that will provide the 10 million to 12 million illegals already in the country any path to citizenship, on the grounds that such an "amnesty" would reward law-breaking.

The association of immigrants with crime is strengthened by the weekly barrage of news about drug and gang violence in Mexico as the government of Mexican President Felipe Calderón seeks to crack down on that country's powerful drug mafias. And long before the Mexican drug war, Americans were threatened by Colombian cartels, Salvadoran street gangs, and other criminal groups from Latin America. Moreover, it is perfectly true that the simple fact of being an illegal immigrant induces one to break further laws: One is reluctant to buy mandated auto insurance, pay taxes, or register businesses for fear of deportation.

There is indeed a huge problem of crime originating in Latin America and spilling into the United States. This is almost wholly driven by the enormous demand for drugs from the U.S. There are many things we can and should do to mitigate this problem, but it will persist as long as that demand remains high.

But the problem of gangs and drug violence should not be confounded with the behavior of the vast majority of illegal immigrants to the U.S., who by and large are seeking the same thing that every immigrant to America has wanted since the time of the Mayflower: to better their condition and that of their families. They are not criminals in the sense of people who make a living by breaking the law. They would be happy to live legally, but they come from societies in which legal rules were never quite extended to them. They are therefore better described as "informal" rather than "illegal."

Understanding this distinction requires knowing something about the social order in Latin America or, for that matter, in many other developing countries. These societies are often characterized by sharp class distinctions between a relatively small, well-educated elite and a much broader and poorer population.

The rule of law exists in places like Mexico, Colombia and El Salvador; the problem is that access to the legal system tends to be a privilege of the well-to-do. The vast majority of illegal immigrants to the U.S. come from poor rural areas, or shantytowns in large cities, where the state-in the form of courts, government agencies and the like-is often absent. Registering a small business, or seeking help from the police, or negotiating a contract requires money, time and political influence that the poor do not possess. In many Latin American countries, as much as 70%-80% of the population lives and works in the informal sector.

The lack of legal access does not make everyone in these regions criminals. It simply means that they get by as best they can through informal institutions they themselves create. The Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto has written extensively about the lack of formal property rights, not just in his own country but throughout the developing world. The poor do not hold legal title to their homes, despite having lived in them for years, because of the insuperable barriers the system throws up to formal registration. So they squat in their homes, constantly insecure and unable to use their property as collateral.

The poor are entrepreneurial and form businesses like restaurants and bus companies, but they are unlicensed and don't conform to official safety rules. They and everyone else would be much better off if they could be brought into the formal legal system, but it is a dysfunctional political system that prevents that from happening.

What illegal immigrants to the U.S. have done is to recreate the informal system within our borders. The Americans who hire them are often complicit in this system by not providing benefits or helping them avoid taxes through cash payments. The gardeners and maids and busboys who participate in this game, along with their employers, are indeed breaking the law. But they are in a very different category from the tattooed Salvatrucha gang member who lives by extortion and drug-dealing.

A comprehensive immigration reform that provides hardworking illegal immigrants with an ultimate path to citizenship should not be regarded as rewarding criminal behavior. It should be seen as an effort to move people from a dangerous informal system to one characterized by a modern rule of law.

We need, of course, to control much better the total number of people coming into the country, which can ultimately be done only through stronger enforcement of employment rules. If we can better distinguish between illegal and informal in our political discourse, then we can begin to concentrate our resources on going after those in the immigrant population who are genuinely dangerous criminals.

 

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WASHINGTON, D.C.- Phillip Lipscy of Stanford University was among the scholars to join a week-long meeting of the U.S.-Japan Network for the Future in Washington, D.C. in June. Dr. Lipscy was one of 15 emerging Japan specialists selected for the U.S.-Japan Network for the Future, a new program launched last year by the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation in collaboration with the Japan Foundation Center for Global Partnership. The purpose of this program is to build and enhance a network of new generation Japan specialists that can bring diverse expertise and perspectives to the U.S.- Japan policymaking process.

Dr. Lipscy is an assistant professor of political science and FSI Center Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. His fields of research include Japanese politics, U.S.-Japan relations, international and comparative political economy, international security, and regional cooperation in East and Southeast Asia. His most recent research examines the politics of financial crises with a particular focus on Japan and the United States. He has also written on a wide range of topics such as negotiations over representation in international organizations, the politics of energy efficiency, the use of secrecy in international policymaking, and Japanese responses to the Asian financial crisis. Dr. Lipscy obtained his PhD in political science at Harvard University. He received his MA in international policy studies and BA in economics and political science at Stanford University. In 2009, he was named as the inaugural Sakurako and William Fisher Family Faculty Scholar.

During the meeting in Washington, Dr. Lipscy and the other U.S.-Japan Network for the Future Fellows had an opportunity to meet with senior policymakers and participate in briefings about current issues affecting U.S.-Japan relations. The meeting followed an introductory meeting for U.S.-Japan Network for the Future Fellows held in Washington this January. U.S.-Japan Network for the Future Fellows also will participate in workshops and a study trip to Japan during the two-year program. They will help shape public policy by preparing opinion pieces and by sharing their views and recommendations at a public Policy Brief Session in Washington in early 2011. These and other activities are expected to lead to deeper and more vigorous dialogue and research on topics of immediate concern to U.S.- Japan relations as well as on ways to strengthen the bilateral relationship through cooperation and shared goals in the global arena. A list of the U.S.-Japan Network for the Future Fellows and more information about the program is available on the Mansfield Foundation's website.

The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation is a 501(c)3 organization that promotes understanding and cooperation in U.S.-Asia relations. The Foundation has offices in Washington, D.C.; Tokyo, Japan; and Missoula, Montana.

The Center for Global Partnership (CGP) is a part of the Japan Foundation, which is a Japanese Independent Administrative Institution (Dokuritsu Gyosei Hojin). CGP operates grant programs as well as self-initiated projects and fellowships. CGP has offices in Tokyo, Japan and New York, New York.

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