Authors
David G. Victor
Nadejda M. Victor
News Type
Commentary
Date
Paragraphs
Since the fall of communism, the U.S. and Russia have been searching for areas for mutually beneficial cooperation. While oil has historically taken center stage, David and Nadejda Victor argue that diplomats should consider nuclear energy as well.

Since the Iron Curtain came crashing down, American and Russian diplomats have been searching for a special relationship between their countries to replace Cold War animosity.

Security matters have not yielded much. On issues such as the expansion of Nato, stabilising Yugoslavia and the war in Chechnya, the two have sought each other's tolerance more than co-operation. Nor have the two nations developed much economic interaction, as a result of Russia's weak institutions and faltering economy. Thus, by default, "energy" has become the new special topic in Russian-American relations.

This enthusiasm is misplaced, however. A collapse of oil prices in the aftermath of an invasion of Iraq may soon lay bare the countries' divergent interests. Russia needs high oil prices to keep its economy afloat, whereas US policy would be largely unaffected by falling energy costs. Moreover, cheerleaders of a new Russian-American oil partnership fail to understand that there is not much the two can do to influence the global energy market or even investment in Russia's oil sector. The focus on oil has also eclipsed another area in which US and Russian common interests could run deeper: nuclear power. Joint efforts to develop new technologies for generating nuclear power and managing nuclear waste could result in a huge payoff for both countries. These issues, which are the keys to keeping nuclear power viable, are formally on the Russian-American political agenda, but little has been done to tap the potential for co -operation. Given Russia's scientific talent and the urgent need to reinvigorate nuclear non-proliferation programmes, a relatively minor commitment of diplomatic and financial resources could deliver significant long-term benefits to the United States.

On the surface, energy co-operation seems a wise choice. Russia is rich in hydrocarbons and the US wants them. Oil and gas account for two-fifths of Russian exports. Last year, Russia reclaimed its status, last held in the late 1980s, as the world's top oil producer. Its oil output this year is expected to top eight million barrels per day and is on track to rise further. Russian oil firms also made their first shipments to US markets last year - some symbolically purchased as part of US efforts to augment its strategic petroleum reserve. In addition, four Russian oil companies are preparing a new, large port in Murmansk as part of a plan to supply more than 10 per cent of total US oil imports within a decade.

Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest consumer and importer of oil. This year, it will import about 60 per cent of the oil it burns, and the US Energy Information Administration expects foreign dependence will rise to about 70 per cent by 2010, and continue inching upwards thereafter. Although the US economy is much less sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices than it was three decades ago, diversification and stability in world oil markets are a constant worry.

War jitters and political divisions cast a long shadow over the Persian Gulf, source of one-quarter of the world's oil. In Nigeria, the largest African oil exporter, sectarian violence periodically not only interrupts oil operations but also sent Miss World contestants packing last year. A scheme by Latin America's top producer, Venezuela, to pump up its share of world production helped trigger a collapse in world oil prices in the late 1990s and ushered in the leftist government of President Hugo Chavez. Last year, labour strikes aimed at unseating Mr Chavez shut Venezuela's ports and helped raise prices to more than US$ 30 (HK$ 234) a barrel. Next to these players, Russia is a paragon of stability.

The aftermath of a war in Iraq would probably provide a first test for the shallow new Russian-American partnership. Most attention on Russian interests in Iraq has focused on two issues: Iraq's lingering Soviet-era debt, variously measured at US$ 7 billion to US$ 12 billion, and the dominant position of Russian companies in controlling leases for several Iraqi oilfields. Both are red herrings. No company that has signed lease deals with Saddam Hussein's government could believe those rights are secure. Russia's top oil company, Lukoil, knew that when it met Iraqi opposition leaders in an attempt to hedge its bets for possible regime change. (Saddam's discovery of those contacts proved the point: he cancelled, then later reinstated, Lukoil's interests in the massive Western Kurna field.)

Russian officials have pressed the US to guarantee the existing contracts, but officials have wisely demurred. There would be no faster way to confirm Arab suspicions that regime change is merely a cover for taking control of Iraq's oil than by awarding the jewels before a new government is known and seated.

Of course, the impact of a war on world oil supply and price is hard to predict. A long war and a tortuous rebuilding process could deprive the market of Iraqi crude oil (about two million barrels a day, last year). Damage to nearby fields in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could make oil even more scarce. And already tight inventories and continued troubles in Venezuela could deliver a "perfect storm" of soaring oil prices.

The most plausible scenario, however, is bad news for Russia: a brief war, quickly followed by increased Iraqi exports, along with a clear policy of releasing oil from America's reserves to deter speculators. A more lasting Russian-American energy agenda would focus on subjects beyond the current, fleeting common interest in oil. To find an area in which dialogue can truly make a difference, Russia and the US should look to the subject that occupied much of their effort in the 1990s, but that both sides neglected too quickly: nuclear power.

With the end of the Cold War, the two nations created a multi-billion-dollar programme to sequester Russia's prodigious quantities of fissile material and nuclear technology. The goal was to prevent these "loose nukes" from falling into the hands of terrorists or hostile states.

The Co-operative Threat Reduction programme also included funds to employ Russian scientists through joint research projects and academic exchanges.

Inevitably, it has failed to meet all its goals. In a country where central control has broken down and scientific salaries have evaporated, it is difficult to halt the departure of every nuclear resource. Nor is it surprising that US appropriators have failed to deliver the billions of dollars promised for the collective endeavour. Other priorities have constantly intervened, and Russia's uneven record in complying with arms control agreements has made appropriation of funds a perpetual congressional battle. Various good ideas for reinvigorating the programme have gone without funding and bureaucratic attention - even in the post-September 11 political environment, in which practically any idea for fighting terrorism can get money.

Russia has opened nuclear waste encapsulation and storage facilities near Krasnoyarsk, raising the possibility of creating an international storage site for nuclear waste. This topic has long been taboo, but it is an essential issue to raise if the global nuclear power industry is to move beyond the inefficiencies of small-scale nuclear waste management.

Russia should also be brought into worldwide efforts to design new nuclear reactors. The global nuclear research community, under US leadership, has outlined comprehensive and implementable plans for the next generation of fission reactors. The Russian nuclear programme is one of the world's leaders in handling the materials necessary for new reactor designs. Yet Russia is not currently a member of the US government-led Generation IV International Forum, one of the main vehicles for international co-operation on fission reactors and their fuel cycles. Top US priorities must include integrating Russia into that effort, endorsing Russia's relationships with other key nuclear innovators (such as Japan), and delivering on the promise made at last summer's G8 meeting of leaders of the world's biggest economies - to help Russia secure its nuclear materials.

For opponents of nuclear power, no plan will be acceptable. But the emerging recognition that global warming is a real threat demands that nations develop serious, environmentally friendly energy alternatives. Of all the major options available today, only nuclear power and hydroelectricity offer usable energy with essentially zero emissions of greenhouse gases.

Neither government should be naive about the sustainability of this endeavour. Russia is not an ideal partner because its borders have been a sieve for nuclear know-how and because its nuclear managers are suspected of abetting the outflow. Thus, plans for nuclear waste storage, for example, must ensure that they render the waste a minimal threat for proliferation. The US must also be more mindful of Russian sensitivity to co-operation on matters that, to date, have been military secrets.

Another difficult issue that both nations must confront is Russia's relationship with Iran. A perennial thorn in ties, Russia's nuclear co -operation with officials in Tehran owes much not just to Iranian money but to the complex relationship between the two countries over drilling and export routes for Caspian oil. This link to Iran cannot be wished away, as it is rooted in Russia's very geography. Any sustainable nuclear partnership between the US and Russia must develop a political strategy to handle this reality.

The world, including the US, needs the option of viable nuclear power. Yet Russia's talented scientists and nuclear resources sit idle, ready for action.

All News button
1
Submitted by fsid9admin on
This unit introduces students to the topics of diasporas, migration, and the role and experience of diasporic communities in the United States. Students learn about five diasporas in the United States-the Armenian, Chinese, Cuban, Irish, and Yoruban- from their development as diasporas to their contemporary identities, roles, and remaining homeland ties.
-

Stanford Law School, Room 190

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C144
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-4287 (650) 725-0253
0
Lecturer in Law, Stanford Law School
jensen-1.jpg JD

Erik Jensen holds joint appointments at Stanford Law School and Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. He is Lecturer in Law, Director of the Rule of Law Program at Stanford Law School, an Affiliated Core Faculty at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and Senior Advisor for Governance and Law at The Asia Foundation. Jensen began his international career as a Fulbright Scholar. He has taught and practiced in the field of law and development for 35 years and has carried out fieldwork in approximately 40 developing countries. He lived in Asia for 14 years. He has led or advised research teams on governance and the rule of law at the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the African Development Bank. Among his numerous publications, Jensen co-edited with Thomas Heller Beyond Common Knowledge: Empirical Approaches to the Rule of Law (Stanford University Press: 2003).

At Stanford, he teaches courses related to state building, development, global poverty and the rule of law. Jensen’s scholarship and fieldwork focuses on bridging theory and practice, and examines connections between law, economy, politics and society. Much of his teaching focuses on experiential learning. In recent years, he has committed considerable effort as faculty director to three student driven projects: the Afghanistan Legal Education Project (ALEP) which started and has developed a law degree-granting programs at the American University of Afghanistan (AUAF), an institution where he also sits on the Board of Trustees; the Iraq Legal Education Initiative at the American University of Iraq in Sulaimani (AUIS); and the Rwanda Law and Development Project at the University of Rwanda. He has also directed projects in Bhutan, Cambodia and Timor Leste. With Paul Brest, he is co-leading the Rule of Non-Law Project, a research project launched in 2015 and funded by the Global Development and Poverty Fund at the Stanford King Center on Global Development. The project examines the use of various work-arounds to the formal legal system by economic actors in developing countries. Eight law faculty members as well as scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute are participating in the Rule of Non-Law Project.

Director of the Rule of Law Program, Stanford Law School
CDDRL Affiliated Faculty
CV
Date Label
Erik Jensen Co-Director Rule of Law Moderator Stanford Law School
Hamid Sharif Assistant General Counsel Panelist Asian Development Bank
Alex Their Consultant to Afghanistan's Constitutional and Judicial Commissions Panelist The Asia Foundation

This conference is being held at the early stages in a cluster of related studies on the political economy of electric power systems in developing countries. The event has been timed to allow the presentation of the first drafts of the overall framework as well as individual case studies-to be critiqued and counseled. The introductory overview provides a framework for thinking about the "political economy" of reform-the legal, political and institutional issues that largely determine the organization of electric power systems and explain the outcomes of different attempts at reform. The study is expected to be finalized by summer 2003.

Bechtel Conference Center

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
0
Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
dvictoronline2.jpg
David G. Victor Associate Professor Moderator Program on Energy and Sustainable Development

Crown Quad rm 329
Stanford, California 94305-8610

(650) 723-7650 (650) 725-0253
0
Lewis Talbot and Nadine Hearn Shelton Professor of International Legal Studies, Emeritus
THeller.jpg LLB

An expert in international law and legal institutions, Thomas C. Heller has focused his research on the rule of law, international climate control, global energy use, and the interaction of government and nongovernmental organizations in establishing legal structures in the developing world. He has created innovative courses on the role of law in transitional and developing economies, as well as the comparative study of law in developed economies. He co-directs the law school’s Rule of Law Program, as well as the Stanford Program in International Law. Professor Heller has been a visiting professor at the European University Institute, Catholic University of Louvain, and Hong Kong University, and has served as the deputy director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, where he is now a senior fellow.

Professor Heller is also a senior fellow (by courtesy) at the Woods Institute for the Environment. Before joining the Stanford Law School faculty in 1979, he was a professor of law at the University of Wisconsin Law School and an attorney-advisor to the governments of Chile and Colombia.

FSI Senior Fellow and Woods Institute Senior Fellow by courtesy
Thomas C. Heller Professor Moderator Stanford Law School

Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Center for Environmental Science and Policy
Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-8073 (650) 724-1717
0
J.S.D.

Dr. Tjiong joined PESD in September 2002. His work at PESD concentrates in the realm of electric power market reform. Since 1999, Dr. Tjiong has been a Research Associate with the Max-Planck-Projectgroup, Common Goods: Law, Politics, and Economics in Bonn, Germany. Previously, he served as Consultant to the Consumer Policy Committee for the OECD in Paris, France. Dr. Tjiong holds a J.S.D. from Stanford University School of Law and a J.S.M. from the Stanford School of Law Program in International Legal Studies. He also attended Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Postdoctoral Scholar (2002-2003)
Henri Tjiong Fellow Moderator Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Conferences
-

This seminar is part 5 of SPRIE's 5-part series on "Greater China: Entrepreneurial Leaders."

With China's fast growth pace, the build-up of its communication network is one important factor to ensure continuous growth. However, with the gloomy economy in the rest of the world, China's service providers are adjusting their investment strategy. Understanding the dynamics in the Greater China region will help capture market opportunity.

Mr. Gwong-Yih Lee is a distinguished entrepreneur, leader, and visionary in the emerging telecom market. Currently, he serves as a senior director of Global Solutions at Cisco Systems. Prior to Cisco, Mr. Lee was founder and chairman/CEO of TransMedia Communications, Inc. Acquired by Cisco in 1999 at the value of approximately $500 million, TransMedia builds products that capitalize on the opportunities created by the convergence of data, voice, and video. In 1999, TransMedia was selected as "Best of Breed" startup by the industry's top venture capitalists.

In May 1987, Mr. Lee founded Digicom Systems, Inc., a company devoted to high-speed modern communications applications in both software algorithms and hardware. Digicom has developed, manufactured, marketed, and supported a full continuing line of high speed communications products and was acquired by Creative Technology, Ltd. In 1994, prior to Mr. Lee's founding Digicom Systems, he held positions as a senior engineering manager with Silicon Valley firms including Anderson Jacobson, Racal-Datacom, and Cermetek Microelectronics.

Mr. Lee received a bachelor's degree from National Chiao-Tung University in Taiwan and a master's degree in electrical engineering from New York State University.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing

Gwong-Yih Lee Senior Director and General Manager Cisco Systems
Seminars
-

Japanese themselves describe the habitat for entrepreneurship in Japan as a "wasteland", a "desert." It has been decades since the world has seen the growth of Japanese corporate giants from start-up seeds. Where are the Microsofts, Oracles, SUNs, Ciscos, E-Bays? The Japanese entrepreneurial "habitat" is dysfunctional in many ways--cultural, social, personal, educational, governmental. Fixing the "habitat" is not easy because it is so multidimensional and requires coordinated industrial and governmental policies and much cultural change. What is needed now is one (or a few) experiments in "habitat" design to demonstrate that successful "habitats" can be established in Japan. In a recent book (published in Japanese), Brunner and I proposed that Special Entrepreneurial Zones (SEZs) be established. We gave some rather specific recommendations for "habitat" design (i.e. the rules of the SEZ). The timing of our SEZ proposal is fortunate because the Japanese government and Diet are now earnestly considering the establishment of special economic zones, so there is some hope for an SEZ that will (experimentally, at least) make the "desert" bloom.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing

Edward A. Feigenbaum Kumagai Professor of Computer Science, Emeritus Stanford University
Seminars
-

In the past few years, the semiconductor industry has been transformed to be application-driven and consumer electronics-oriented. During this change, several things have happened with the following features; 1.) Market is shifting to Asia Pacific regions, 2.) Consolidation and partnership are becoming necessary, and 3.) Cost reduction and risk sharing are of prime importance. The semiconductor market occupancy in China roots not only on its vast domestic consumption, but also on its development in hardware manufacturing of products of electronics with advancements in cost reduction and quality improvements. This will constantly stimulate the primary semiconductor chips to meet their demands. This presentation elaborates the evolution of the ongoing semiconductor industry and specifically, its opportunity in China.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing

Seminars
-

This seminar is part 2 of SPRIE's 5-part series on "Greater China: Entrepreneurial Leaders."

From a venture capital investor's perspective, what are the key opportunities and challenges of doing business in China in the current environment? Why? How is China's emerging private equity investment industry? What are the major differences between "home-grown" Chinese private equity firms and foreign capital firms? Bobby Chao will address these questions, based on personal experience gained over the past twenty years.

Bobby Chao began his career as one of the five original founders of Cadence Design Systems. A year after Cadence's successful IPO, Bobby founded Ocron, a leader in Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technology and document management software. Bobby was chairman and CEO of Ocron until Umax Technologies, Inc. acquired it. He then became part of the Umax team serving as senior vice president of marketing in charge of corporate marketing and investment. Bobby was previously general partner for Technology Associates Management Company and has served as chairman and CEO of VA Linux Systems.

Mr. Chao currently serves as chairman of Dragon Venture Inc., a cross-pacific venture capital, consulting, and M&A company, bridging the U.S. and Greater China markets. Portfolio companies focus on telecommunications, Internet infrastructure, Linux, fables IC designs, and EDA. Mr. Chao is currently on the board of several companies and professional organizations.

Mr. Chao holds a B.S. in physics from Taiwan, an M.S. in physics from Georgia State University, and an M.S. in aeronautical engineering from Stanford University.

Philippines Conference Room

Seminars
Subscribe to Asia-Pacific