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Since Vietnam, the US Army has focused an unprecedented degree of effort on capturing lessons learned in training and on the battlefield and communicating them to other affected units. The Center for Army Lessons Learned (CALL), established after Operation URGENT FURY, is the prime example of the Army's efforts to institutionalize the process of learning during the Cold War. CALL continues to function and provide lessons learned in the current Global War on Terror, while other grassroots organizations have sprung up within the Army to target the learning needs of specific segments of the force. One such organization is CompanyCommand.com, an online professional forum of Army leaders dedicated to outstanding leadership at the small-unit level. This talk will discuss the evolution of organizational learning in the Army since Vietnam, and examine how organizations like CALL and CompanyCommand complement one other in the pursuit of excellence.

Captain Raymond A. Kimball is a native of Reading, Pennsylvania, and was commissioned through the United States Military Academy in 1995. After completing initial officer and flight training, he was assigned to the 1st Battalion (Attack), 10th Aviation Regiment, at Fort Drum, New York in November 1996. While assigned to the 10th Mountain Division, he served as an aeroscout platoon leader and logistics and support officer. In those positions, he participated in the full range of Army operations, from home station training to counter-drug operations along the Mexican border to peacekeeping in Bosnia-Herzegovina. In May of 2001, after completing further officer training, he reported to the 3rd Infantry Division, where he was assigned to the 3rd Squadron, 7th U.S. Cavalry. He took command of F Troop, 3-7 Cavalry in July of 2001. The troop consisted of 88 soldiers and $6 million in equipment and was responsible for all aspects of support and maintenance for the squadron's sixteen scout helicopters. In January of 2003, the troop deployed as part of 3rd Squadron, 7th Cavalry, to Kuwait in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. During combat operations the troop supported 870 flight hours over a period of twenty-one days while moving 700 kilometers through enemy territory without the loss of a single soldier. He gave up command of F Troop in June of 2003 and returned to the United States to begin graduate studies in history at Stanford. In addition to his coursework, he serves as a research assistant to the Preventive Defense Project in CISAC. For the past two years, he has also served as a Topic Lead and advisor to CompanyCommand.com. His next assignment will be as an Associate Professor of History at the United States Military Academy. His awards include the Bronze Star, the Army Commendation Medal, the Army Achievement Medal, and the Humanitarian Service Medal. He is married to the former Mindy Hynds of Vacaville, California; they have one son, Daniel.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room, East 207, Encina Hall

Raymond A. Kimball
Seminars
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Change in the structure of a political elite can offer a window into political change and transformation of a state socialist regime. Soyoung Kwon will present a study of the North Korean political elite, focusing on its composition between 1980 and 2004. Her research is based on a profile analysis of the social and career attributes of the Party Central Committee members. Dr. Kwon examines the changes to the North Korean political elite to see whether it displayed a similar pattern of change in the Soviet and Chinese elites. Her analysis compares the major characteristics of the political elites of the past 24 years in order to identify the level of elite diversification, changing group representation, and any structural adjustment in the elite group under the Kim Jong Il leadership.

Buffet lunch will be provided to those who RSVP to Jasmin Ha at jaha@stanford.edu by Tuesday, February 1.

Philippines Conference Room

Soyoung Kwon Shorenstein Fellow Stanford University
Seminars
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The market for wine in China is still in its beginning stages. Total consumption is less than 1/3 liter per capita (although it is higher for urban residents, more than 1 liter per capita). Domestic wine satisfies most of the demand and, despite it poor reputation, is gradually improving in quality. As income levels increase, there are good opportunities for imported wines. Although the wine market in China is emerging from almost zero consumption a decade ago, there is already a small but loyal following in major urban areas. It is this demand which is driving the emergence of the industry. The income elasticity of wine (according to our study) is more than 2 (as income doubles, consumption increases fourfold. The urban consumer class, which is estimated to exceed the total population of the United States, will almost certainly develop into a large market for both imported and domestic wine in the future.

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Policy Briefs
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Scott Rozelle
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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events exert significant influence on Southeast Asian rice output and markets. This paper measures ENSO effects on Indonesia's national and regional rice production and on world rice prices, using the August Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) to gauge climate variability. It shows that each degree Celsius change in the August SSTA produces a 1,318,000 metric ton effect on output and a $21/metric ton change in the world price for lower quality rice. Of the inter-annual production changes due to SSTA variation, 90% occur within 12 provinces, notably Java and South Sulawesi. New data and models offer opportunities to understand the agricultural effects of ENSO events, to reach early consensus on coming ENSO effects, and to use forecasting to improve agencies' and individuals' capacity to mitigate climate effects on food security. We propose that Indonesia hold an "ENSO summit" each September to analyse the food-security implications of upcoming climate events.

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Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies
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Rosamond L. Naylor
Whitney L. Smith
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In developing a strategy toward North Korea, many human rights activists and members of U.S. Congress have mistakenly applied experiences drawn from East-West relations during the Cold War. The recent culmination of this strategy, the congressional passage of the North Korea Human Rights Act, has only compounded this mistaken interpretation. Unlike Eastern Europe or the Soviet Union of the 1970s and 80s, North Korea possesses no civil society, critical intelligentsia, or significant variant of "reform communism." There are no opportunities for civil society actors to connect with indigenous democratic movements. Furthermore, attempts to "link" any security or arms control deals with North Korea to improvements in the human rights realm -- as the recent legislation tries to do -- will likely result in neither greater security nor improved human rights conditions.

John Feffer is a Pantech Fellow at the Korea Studies Program at Stanford University and the author of North Korea, South Korea: U.S. Policy at a Time of Crisis (Seven Stories Press, 2003) and Shock Waves: Eastern Europe After the Revolutions (South End Press, 1992).

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World Policy Journal
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What shapes a party's ability to act strategically? We address this question by examining nomination behavior under Japanese SNTV/MMD, a system offering data that overcome the shortcomings of measurement error and static analysis that plague empirical research on party strategy. We run a series of generalized event counts (GEC) to model the number of candidates each Japanese political camp nominated at the district level in eleven different elections. The number of nominees is a highly strategic decision under SNTV, resulting in a statistical anomaly: an underdispersed event count variable. Based on the GEC results, our principal substantive finding is that parties are not as strategically capable as the existing scholarly literature claims. Even when parties are willing to act as a unified strategic group, informational uncertainty may leave them unable to do so. We also find that, despite factors that should have mitigated against strategic capacity, both ruling and opposition parties in Japan frequently responded to one another by seeking to take advantage of their opponents' strategic errors.

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Electoral Studies
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Directed by Kei Kumai. Starring Kinuyo Tanaka, Kamaki Kurihara, Yoko Takahashi.

One of Tanaka's final roles, it typifies the kind of film made during the last years of her career when she went out of her way to appear in smaller, less mainstream projects. With Sandakan 8, Tanaka reaped rewards for her creative risk-taking. She received the prestigious Golden Bear acting prize at the Berlin Film Festival for her performance as a former "Karayuki-san" (women coerced into working as prostitutes in Southeast Asian during the Japanese occupation). One of the few Japanese films ever to deal with this explosive, and still controversial, legacy from WWII.

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General Public Welcome

All Prints 35mm, with English Subtitles

Program Includes Films Rarely Screened Outside Japan

Cubberley Auditorium

Conferences
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Directed by Akira Kurosawa. Starring Toshiro Mifune, Yuzo Kayama, Tsutomu Yamazaki, Kinuyo Tanaka.

A historical drama directed by America's favorite Japanese director. Probably Kurosawa's finest film from the 1960s, Red Beard recounts the career of an Edo period physician. A classic Kurosawa epic, with big production values, innovative editing, and sweeping cinematography. The only film Tanaka made with Kurosawa.

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General Public Welcome

All Prints 35mm, with English Subtitles

Program Includes Films Rarely Screened Outside Japan

Cubberley Auditorium

Conferences
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Directed by Mikio Naruse. Starring Kinuyo Tanaka, Isuzu Yamada, Hideko Takamine, Haruko Sugimura, Sumiko Kurishima.

Based on a novel by Aya Koda, Flowing is not only the best film of Naruse's long career, but also one of the most artful examples of a film adaptation of a literary work (Naruse's specialty). Starring some of Japan's leading actresses of the 1950s, the film offers a stark portrait of a fading geisha house as seen through the eyes of its maid, played by Tanaka.

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General Public Welcome

All Prints 35mm, with English Subtitles

Program Includes Films Rarely Screened Outside Japan

Cubberley Auditorium

Conferences
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Directed by Kinuyo Tanaka. Starring Chishu Ryu, Hisako Yamane.

The most successful of Tanaka's six directorial efforts (and apparently, based on forays into Tanaka chat rooms, a film still cherished by her diehard fans). Made in collaboration with Yasujiro Ozu, who composed the script, the film is a gentle domestic comedy about a widowed mother and her two daughters. Tanaka appears in a bit part as the family's maid.

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General Public Welcome

All Prints 35mm, with English Subtitles

Program Includes Films Rarely Screened Outside Japan

Cubberley Auditorium

Conferences
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