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Asia’s demographic landscape is changing in a big way. Japan’s population is shrinking, as people are living longer, marrying later, and choosing to have fewer or no children. Korea is moving in the same direction, while China and the countries of South and Southeast Asia face similar issues in the coming decades. As this takes place, more people are moving to, from, and across Asia for job, education, and marriage opportunities.

These demographic changes present policymakers with new challenges and questions, including: What are the interrelationships between population aging and key macroeconomic variables such as economic growth? How will it impact security? What are the effects on employment policy and other national institutions? How have patterns of migration affected society and culture? What lessons can Asia, the United States, and Europe learn from one another to improve the policy response to population aging?

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) focused its third annual Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue on addressing the possible economic, social, and security implications of Asia’s unprecedented demographic transition. Thirty scholars, government figures, journalists, and other opinion leaders from Stanford, the United States, and countries across the Asia-Pacific region gathered September 8–9, 2011, in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss key issues related to the question of demographic change.

Comparative Demographics and Policy Responses

Japan’s shrinking workforce calls for labor policy changes, stressed presenters during the opening Dialogue session. Stanford Center for Population Research director Shripad Tuljapurkar stated that Japan’s population could decrease by as much as 25 percent and that its government has a window of approximately 40 years in which to act. In describing Japan’s demographic shift, Ogawa Naohiro, director of the Nihon University Population Research Institute, also emphasized the importance of good financial education for individuals as life expectancy increases.

Macroeconomic Implications

Economists Masahiko Aoki and Cai Fang addressed changes to East Asia’s economic landscape. Aoki, an FSI senior fellow, spoke of the transition from agriculture to industry that has occurred at different stages in Japan, Korea, and China and of the increasing cost of human capital that has followed. Cai, a Chinese Academy of Social Sciences labor and population expert, stated that after several decades of industrial growth China is now at a turning point in terms of its global competitiveness.

Labor and Migration

Scott Rozelle, codirector of Stanford’s Rural Education Action Program (REAP), opened the next day with a discussion of China’s rural human capital investment. Offering Mexico’s situation after the mid-1990s peso crisis as a comparison, he emphasized the immediate need for allocating more health and education resources to China’s rural areas. Ton-Nu-Thi Ninh, president of Tri Viet University, discussed the socioeconomic and cultural aspects of labor migration—a growing trend in Asia—and advocated that governments factor it more into their foreign policy development.

Security

The security impact of Asia’s demographic transition will take several decades to understand, but it will eventually lead to the need for significant policy re-strategization, stated Yu Myung Hwan, Korea’s former minister of foreign affairs and trade, during the closing Dialogue session. He suggested focusing on impacts that could result from the major changes taking place in fertility, urbanization, and migration. Concurring with many of Yu’s views, Stanford’s Shorenstein Distinguished Fellow Michael H. Armacost also noted the current lack of literature on the link between security and demography. In addition, he emphasized the need for the United States to continue pursuing good relations with China and Russia during this time of transition.

“Low fertility rates are not because women are all out there working. In fact, a number of countries have lots of females in the labor force and have achieved a resurgence of fertility. Achieving work-life balance is important, not just for women, but for men as well, and might play a role in lessening the gap in life expectancy between men and women.”

-Karen Eggleston, Director, Asia Health Policy Program

Throughout the event, Dialogue participants unanimously acknowledged the serious challenges facing policymakers as they look for ways to meet the evolving needs of individuals, families, and organizations. The demographic outlook is not entirely gloomy, however. Numerous participants also pointed to the potential for exciting advances and innovations in technology and international cooperation.

As in previous years, the event concluded with a lively public symposium and reception attended by students from Stanford and local universities, Shorenstein APARC guests and affiliates, and members of the general public. Speaking during the reception, Kadokawa Daisaku, mayor of Kyoto, and Kim Hyong-O, member and former speaker of the Korean National Assembly, acknowledged the significance of the Stanford Kyoto Trans-Asian Dialogue as a forum for addressing issues of mutual importance to the United States and Asia.

The Dialogue is made possible through the generosity of the City of Kyoto, FSI, and Yumi and Yasunori Kaneko. To read the final report from this and previous Dialogues, visit the event series page below.

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A worker stands on steel rods at a superblock construction site in Jakarta in February 2010. Increasing urbanization is one of many aspects of Asia's demographic change. | REUTERS/Beawiharta
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In 1992, Cambodia became a United Nations (UN) protectorate—the first and only time the UN tried something so ambitious. What did the new, democratically-elected government do with this unprecedented gift? Cambodians today live in the grip of a venal government that refuses to provide even the most basic services without a bribe. Nearly half of the Cambodians who lived through the Khmer Rouge era suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. A malnourished populace still lives as Cambodians did 1,000 years ago, while government officials are the only overweight people in a nation where the hungry waste away. These conditions have not, however, dissuaded the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from acceding the Cambodian regime's desire to chair ASEAN in 2012. Prof. Joel Brinkley will turn an unsparing analytical eye on these and related aspects of Cambodian history, political economy, and foreign policy.

Joel Brinkley joined Stanford in the fall of 2006 after a 23-year career with The New York Times. At the Times he served as a reporter, editor, and Pulitzer Prize-winning foreign correspondent. At Stanford, he writes a weekly column on foreign affairs that appears in some 50 newspapers and web sites in the United States and around the world. He also writes on foreign affairs for Politico, and maintains an active public-speaking career. His research interests include American foreign policy and foreign affairs in general. Over the last 30 years, he has reported from 46 American states and more than 50 foreign countries. The latest of his five books is Cambodia's Curse: The Modern History of a Troubled Land (2011), already lauded by a reviewer in The American Interest as a "compelling" and "revealing tale of delusion and corruption" told with "panache."  Copies of the book will be available for sale at the talk.

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Joel Brinkley Professor of Journalism Speaker Stanford University
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China has recently reformed its health care system with the intent of providing universal coverage for basic health care to every Chinese citizen. Three separate health insurance plans have recently been launched to achieve this objective: the rural newly cooperative medical scheme, urban resident health insurance, and urban employee-based health insurance. Each plan differs substantially in terms of insurers, insured population, premiums, and benefits packages. Using data from the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey, Hai Fang will discuss a study that investigates whether and to what extend different health insurance plans have created disparities in health care utilization and expenditure.

Hai Fang is an assistant professor in the Department of Health Systems, Management, and Policy at the University of Colorado Denver, and a research associate in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He earned his doctorate in economics and master of public health from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 2006. Before joining the University of Colorado Denver, he taught at the University of California, Davis, and the University of Miami. His research interests include health economics, labor economics, and public health.

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Hai Fang Associate Professor, Department of Health Systems, Management, and Policy Speaker University of Colorado Denver
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This seminar explores whether and to what extent the relative circumstances of men and women following marital dissolution affect sex selection behavior within marriages. China's new divorce law, which was enacted in 2001, reduced divorce costs, especially for women, by granting the right to divorce and claim damages in the case of domestic violence and extra-marital relationships and by securing women's property rights upon divorce. Ang Sun has modeled the legal change as a decrease in women's divorce costs in a household in which all the marital surplus accrues to the husband. Sun shows: (1) that the new divorce law predicts an increase in divorce rates after the birth of a daughter; (2) that the new law results in fewer sex-selective abortions for the second birth if the first birth produced a daughter; and (3) that the effect of the new law on the sex ratio should have diminishing returns to divorce cost reduction for women. All the predictions are supported by the empirical evidence. Most importantly, she finds that most of the decline occurred in historically high divorce-cost regions, which is consistent with the predictions of the model and helps rule out concomitant changes in household income and relative returns to male and female children.

Ang Sun received her PhD from Brown University’s Department of Economics. Sun’s research interests encompass development economics, labor and demographic economics, and health economics. She focuses on intra-household allocations, gender differences, and household formation. In particular, she studies how a combination of different forces in China—including traditional values, rapid growth, and the population structure—is affecting Chinese families.

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Walter H. Shorenstein
Asia-Pacific Research Center
616 Serra St C335
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-5668 (650) 723-6530
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2011-12 Asia Health Policy Fellow
SunAng_Profile.jpg MA, PhD

Ang Sun joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) from Brown University’s department of economics where she recently received her PhD.

Sun’s research interests encompass development economics, labor and demographic economics, and health economics. She focuses on intra-household allocations, gender differences, and household formation. In particular, she studies how a combination of different forces in China—including traditional values, rapid growth, and the population structure—is affecting Chinese families. During her time at Shorenstein APARC, Sun will participate in an interdisciplinary study of the impact of the aging process in Asia on economic growth.

Sun holds a PhD and an MA in economics from Brown University, and an MA from the China Center of Economic Research. She also received a BA in economics and a BS in information and computer science from Beijing University.

Ang Sun 2011-12 Asia Health Policy Fellow Speaker Stanford University
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America gives Pakistan billions of dollars in aid each year. Pakistan returns the favor by harboring terrorists, spreading anti-Americanism, and selling nuclear technology. In the current issue of Foreign Affairs, FSI's Stephen D. Krasner makes the case for telling Islamabad to start cooperating or lose its aid and face isolation.

Krasner, who was director of policy planning at the State Department between 2005 and 2007, was recently appointed to a panel of experts who will advise Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. FSI advisory board member Nina Hachigian is also one of the 25 members of the newly created Foreign Affairs Policy Board, which will weigh in on pressing issues before the State Department.

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Ten years into the war in Afghanistan, Payne Distinguished Lecturer Lt. Gen. Karl W. Eikenberry, the former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and the former Commander of the American-led Coalition Forces there, set out to examine the transition to Afghan sovereignty.   Eikenberry laid out  three broad sets of questions: How well are we doing in the campaign in Afghanistan, what are the significant challenges we’ll face in achieving our goals and objectives, and what are the implications for American power and influence in the 21st century.

Watch the video below.

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Karl Eikenberry Payne Distinguished Lecturer; Retired United States Army Lieutenant General; Former United States Ambassador to Afghanistan Speaker
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KSP visiting scholar Hyun Jeoung Lee, a South Korean attorney and former public prosecutor, will analyze the problem of rebates by pharmaceutical companies. She will provide background on the Korean pharmaceutical industry and review the Korean government's efforts to combat the problem, including the latest legislation, regulation, and prosecution.

Hyun Jeoung Lee is an attorney at the leading Korean law firm of Kim & Chang, in the White Collar Criminal Defense Practice Group. Before joining the firm in 2007, she served as a public prosecutor for 10 years, developing expertise in a wide range of criminal law matters and was awarded honors by the Korean government, including the titles of Public Prosecutor General (2003) and Cabinet Minister of the Ministry of Justice (2006).

Lee completed her master's work in competition and antitrust laws at the Graduate School of Legal Studies at Korea University in 2006. She has extensive experience in white collar criminal defense, primarily in the areas of securities fraud, insider trading, and other corporate crimes, including fair trade regulation.

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Shorenstein APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 725-2507 (650) 723-6530
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Hyun Jeoung Lee is currently a visiting scholar with the Korean Studies Program. She is an attorney at Kim & Chang, in the White Collar Criminal Defense Practice Group, in Seoul, Korea.

Before joining the firm in 2007, Lee served as a public prosecutor for 10 years. In that capacity, she developed expertise in a wide range of criminal law matters and was awarded honors by the Korean government, including the titles of Public Prosecutor General (2003) and Cabinet Minister of the Ministry of Justice (2006).

Lee completed her master's work in competition and antitrust laws at the Graduate School of Legal Studies at Korea University in 2006. She has extensive experience in white collar criminal defense, primarily in the areas of securities fraud, insider trading, and other corporate crimes, including fair trade regulation.

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Hyun Jeoung Lee 2011 Visiting Scholar, Korean Studies Program, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Speaker
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Southeast Asia is home to half a billion people, and the United States has significant political and economic interest in the region. In response to U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's Myanmar -- the first major U.S. visit in more than 50 years -- Donald K. Emmerson spoke with the International Business Times and LinkAsia about what the trip potentially means for the United States, for Southeast Asia, and for China.
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Young monks in Mandalay, Myanmar, April 2009. | Flickr/Dieter Zirnig
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Life in North Korea is not as bleak as people imagine, says former humanitarian aid worker Katharina Zellweger, who lived in Pyongyang for five years. Food scarcity, however, is a serious concern and Zellweger says that other countries should consider providing more food aid to North Korea in order to set its economic and creative capacity free.
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Young boys in North Korea, August 2005. | Flickr/Peter Casier, UN World Food Program
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Fractured Rebellion is the first full-length account of the evolution of China's Red Guard Movement in Beijing, the nation's capital, from its beginnings in 1966 to its forcible suppression in 1968. A recent China Beat review praised Andrew G. Walder's 2009 book as "groundbreaking" and as "[bringing] meaning to a whirlwind of events."
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A Red Guard rally at Tiananmen Square during the Cultural Revolution. | Flickr/Guccio
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