The United States remains a leader in the global economy, yet over the past decade, it has taken a sharp turn away from its traditional support of free, rules-based trade. Since 2016, Washington has withdrawn from international trade agreements it once championed, opting for a more unilateral approach and pivoting from many of the obligations and norms it had shaped and insisted others honor to make trade fair, equitable, and mutually beneficial. How did the United States arrive here, and what steps should it take to leverage its strengths in the global trade system moving forward?

APARC visiting scholar Michael Beeman addresses these questions in his new book Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond (published by APARC, distributed by Stanford University Press). As a former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Japan, Korea, and APEC, Beeman brings an insider’s perspective to the recent transformation of U.S. trade policy. He provides a timely analysis of the forces driving this shift, examines its implications for America’s role in the global economy, and offers prescriptions for a robust U.S. trade policy that still serves American interests while allowing for compromise among competing ones.

Join Dr. Beeman on campus for our book launch event on October 17. Reserve your spot today >

Beeman joined APARC Communications Manager Michael Breger to discuss his new book. Listen to the conversation on our SoundCloud or YouTube channels. You can also download a transcript of the conversation.

Sign up for APARC newsletters to receive our event invitations and scholar updates >

A Departure From the Norm

In Beeman's analysis, the tactic of "walking out" as a means to renegotiate international agreements reflects a fundamental shift in U.S. trade policy, marked by a rejection of established conditions, obligations, and norms that had previously facilitated global trade and reduced conflict. This shift has had significant repercussions, as Washington has increasingly distanced itself from the principles it once championed, such as non-discrimination, transparency, openness, and reciprocity in trade. The change represents more than the inability to agree to a specific trade deal. According to Beeman, it is a rejection of Washington's long-held principles in pursuit of new goals.

Beeman attributes the collapse of the decades-long bipartisan consensus supporting free trade to a domestic political climate, where “the emergence of America’s zero-sum-centered politics [is] the new, defining feature of its political system.” In this new system, trade is viewed not as mutually beneficial but as a competition for limited resources. This transformation began gaining traction during the 2007-2008 financial crisis, which galvanized new political movements, like the Tea Party and the so-called New Right, that simultaneously criticized free trade agreements.

Acknowledging the effects of domestic politics on trade policy, Beeman explores how the current political landscape, marked by extreme division, shapes trade decisions and reflects broader societal tensions. The author draws parallels between historical trade policy and the contemporary environment, noting that just as the 1930s saw dramatic swings in U.S. tariff policies, today’s new political geometry is “forged from extreme new levels of domestic political division [...] On trade, it is a geometry of acute angles and no longer one of curves and tangents.”

This political backdrop has resulted in an increasingly politicized trade policy that hampers efforts to find consensus. Beeman emphasizes that the transformation of U.S. trade policy is not merely a reflection of external pressures but a byproduct of internal political dynamics that redefine the goals and assumptions underpinning U.S. trade strategy.

Trade Policy Tensions
 

Among the many trade agreements that the U.S. has recently abandoned was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). According to Beeman, internal divisions regarding the TPP's stringent rules and demands — especially concerning auto manufacturing — highlighted a rift between America's expectations of its trading partners and its willingness to accept compromise.

Various rules and regulations dictated by the TPP stoked domestic contention and “had scrambled the usual pathways to achieve the vote margins needed for these agreements. [They] also revealed the sharp new tension between what America expected and wanted from others and what it was willing to agree upon and accept for itself.” The Biden administration's decision to abandon its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) trade agreement in late 2023 further illustrated ongoing tensions in U.S. trade policy, underscoring a lack of coherent strategy following the TPP's collapse.

The book explores how the Trump and Biden Administrations have grappled with the contradictions in their trade policies. While Robert Lighthizer, the former trade representative under Trump, embraced a confrontational approach, Beeman criticizes the fallout from these decisions, arguing they often left established commitments unfulfilled and damaged international relationships. But Beeman also maintains that the Biden Administration's attempts to repair and redefine trade relationships have resulted in a series of inconsistent policies, reflecting internal domestic tensions yet to be resolved.

“As a set of social values and domestic priorities in search of a means to express themselves through America’s external trade policies, [the Biden] Administration attempted to explain its approach in ways that often only raised contradictory distinctions.” Once these “became harder to explain and justify, [it] began developing what amounted to a new theory of global trade disorder and dysfunction in an attempt to more convincingly frame its decisions.”

According to Beeman, disruptions from Covid-19 were a “helpful backdrop,” but, he argues, “if set against the vastly more immense challenges of the late 1940s and early 1950s, when America made an intentional policy choice to work with other countries to commit to open, rules-based trade to lead the world out of crisis, the problems of 2020-21 were challenges that policymakers from that time undoubtedly would have preferred.”

Barriers to Progress
 

The current political landscape has made it challenging for Congress to reach a consensus on trade issues. The failure to renew the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which provided tariff relief to developing countries, exemplifies the paralysis in U.S. trade policy. Beeman remarks upon how, “after the bipartisan mainstream that advanced open and freer trade […] was swept away by America’s New Right and progressive Left, their shared interest in adding new and ever more conditions to America’s imports was insufficient to overcome their sharp disagreements over which conditions to add.” For Beeman, the inability to agree on new conditions for trade reflects broader ideological divides that hinder progress.

Ultimately, Beeman warns that America’s zero-sum approach to trade may lead to a cycle of self-inflicted isolation. He argues that this shift is not solely a reaction to China’s rise but represents a deeper ideological rift in American politics. “International trade adds a foreign, or external, dimension to zero-sum thinking that has facilitated a surprising degree of alignment between the New Right and the progressive Left,” he writes, specifically the “zero-sum belief that America is made worse off by freer trade, which benefits ‘them.’” Such an alignment has created an environment where bipartisan support for trade agreements has eroded, complicating efforts to establish a coherent and effective trade policy moving forward.

An essential read for anyone interested in the international political economy of trade and the future of America’s role in the global economy, “Walking Out” highlights the urgent need for the United States to reconcile its domestic divides to reestablish its role in the global economy. The current trajectory, characterized by a rejection of its foundational principles, risks fostering new conflicts with allies and adversaries alike, contradicting the original goals of the international trading system.

The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation for a Better Future announced today the third annual Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue (TPSD), set to take place at Stanford University on October 10-11, 2024. This year's dialogue focuses on promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization, fostering innovation, and building resilient infrastructure — the vision encompassed in Sustainable Development Goal 9 (SDG 9). Registration for the conference is now open.

APARC and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation launched the TPSD initiative in 2022 to fast-track the United Nations-adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its underlying 17 Global Goals. By gathering social science researchers and scientists from Stanford University and across the Asia-Pacific region alongside government officials, experts from the private and public sectors, and emerging leaders, the dialogue initiative aims to spur transnational research and policy collaborations to expedite the implementation of the SDGs.

This year’s event follows the momentum generated in previous dialogue gatherings held in Asia, most recently the 2023 TPSD on energy security (SDG 7) and its last sub-regional dialogue on peace and justice (SDG 16). Convening this year for the first time at Stanford University, the two-day event is made possible thanks to the active co-organization of multiple partners: the Asian Development Bank, Ewha Womans University, Fijian Competition and Consumer Commission, Korea Environment Institute, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, and the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University.

With just six years remaining, progress on the 2030 Agenda is severely lagging worldwide. According to the 2024 Sustainable Development Goals Report, only 17 percent of the SDG targets are on track, nearly half are showing minimal or moderate progress, and progress on over one-third has stalled since 2020 or even regressed below the 2015 baseline levels. Against this backdrop, this year’s TPSD will center on SDG 9 and its foundational role in the Global Goals framework. The vision at the core of SDG 9 — namely, industrial development that makes opportunities accessible to all and is grounded in technological innovation and resilient infrastructure — is pivotal for achieving economic resilience, social development, and the green transition toward a decarbonized future.

"The 2024 TPSD will offer a unique platform for cross-sector leaders to highlight where interventions are most urgently needed to close disparities in achieving SDG 9 and assess best practices to expedite progress,” said Stanford sociologist Gi-Wook Shin, the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and director of APARC. “With Stanford’s innovation ecosystem, industry collaboration, and commitment to accelerating interdisciplinary solutions to global challenges, there is no better place to pursue this work."

Day One of the dialogue will open with a plenary focused on the role of world leaders in advancing higher education and sustainable innovation, featuring Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations; Zandanshatar Gombojav, Chairman of the 7th and 8th State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia; Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University; and Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Director of the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy. The following plenary sessions will examine practical pathways and policies for catalyzing climate change diplomacy across sectors, sustainable industrialization in the Indo-Pacific, and financing for resilient infrastructure in the region.

"With only six years left to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, we are facing increasing instability and uncertainty due to serious global challenges: the worsening climate crisis, the exacerbation of regional conflicts, and the deepening of economic inequality,” notes Mr. Ban. “Under these challenging circumstances, the significance of this 2024 Dialogue lies in accelerating multilateral cooperation among Asia-Pacific countries to share experiences and knowledge to narrow the gap in achieving the goal of building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and fostering innovation."

On Day Two, expert sessions will discuss strategies for leveraging investments, cooperation, and ecopreneurship for resilient infrastructure and social change. The day will also include a policy roundtable on integrating the value of the environment into policy and decision-making for sustainable development and two parallel workshops with young scholars and entrepreneurs, highlighting the role of emerging leaders in shaping the future of sustainable industry. They will present their work on design thinking for developing sustainable technology and equitable infrastructure and strengthening labor force participation and development for inclusive industries.

The 2024 TPSD reflects the commitment of APARC, the Ban Ki-moon Foundation, and our partners to advance stronger and more effective international cooperation to create a surge in the implementation of the SDGs. We invite scholars, policymakers, industry leaders, civil society experts, and all interested stakeholders to join us in this effort.

To register for the conference and access the full program, visit the 2024 TPSD webpage.

About the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) is Stanford University's esteemed institute dedicated to addressing critical issues impacting Asia and its relations with the United States. Through interdisciplinary research, education, and dialogue, APARC seeks to shape innovative policy solutions and enhance collaboration among countries in the Asia-Pacific region. For more information, visit aparc.stanford.edu.

About the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
The Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future upholds the legacy and vision of Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations. Guided by the principles of unification, communication, co-existence, and dedication, the Foundation works tirelessly towards achieving peace, security, development, and human rights. Collaborating with international organizations and stakeholders, the Foundation actively supports the UN's Sustainable Development Goals and the 2050 carbon net-zero target set by the Paris Climate Accord. For more information, visit eng.bf4bf.or.kr.

Contact

For further information on the Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue, contact Cheryll Alipio, Shorenstein APARC’s Associate Director for Program and Policy at calipio@stanford.edu.