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Abstract:

Political polarization has paralyzed the functioning of democracy in Thailand, Bangladesh, and Taiwan, where students have recently occupied the parliament building.  Civil liberties and political opposition are under intensified assault by an abusive prime minister in Turkey.  Indian democracy is increasingly diminished by brazen corruption and rent-seeking. Several African democracies have failed, and others are slipping.  The Arab Spring has largely imploded, and Egypt is in the grip of military authoritarian rule more repressive than anything the country has seen in decades.  After invading and swallowing a piece of Ukraine, Russia now poses a gathering threat to its democratic postcommunist neighbors.  For the eighth consecutive year, Freedom House finds that the number of countries declining in freedom have greatly exceeded the number improving.  And most of the advanced industrial democracies, including the United States, seem unable to address their long-term fiscal and other policy challenges.  Is there an emerging global crisis of democracy?  And if so, why?

Speaker Bio:

Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, where he directs the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. Diamond also serves as the Peter E. Haas Faculty Co-Director of the Haas Center for Public Service at Stanford. He is the founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy and also serves as Senior Consultant (and previously was co-director) at the International Forum for Democratic Studies of the National Endowment for Democracy. During 2002-3, he served as a consultant to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has also advised and lectured to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other governmental and nongovernmental agencies dealing with governance and development. His latest book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (Times Books, 2008), explores the sources of global democratic progress and stress and the prospects for future democratic expansion.

 

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Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
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Larry Diamond is the William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He is also professor by courtesy of Political Science and Sociology at Stanford, where he lectures and teaches courses on democracy (including an online course on EdX). At the Hoover Institution, he co-leads the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region and participates in the Project on the U.S., China, and the World. At FSI, he is among the core faculty of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, which he directed for six and a half years. He leads FSI’s Israel Studies Program and is a member of the Program on Arab Reform and Development. He also co-leads the Global Digital Policy Incubator, based at FSI’s Cyber Policy Center. He served for 32 years as founding co-editor of the Journal of Democracy.

Diamond’s research focuses on global trends affecting freedom and democracy and on U.S. and international policies to defend and advance democracy. His book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, analyzes the challenges confronting liberal democracy in the United States and around the world at this potential “hinge in history,” and offers an agenda for strengthening and defending democracy at home and abroad.  A paperback edition with a new preface was released by Penguin in April 2020. His other books include: In Search of Democracy (2016), The Spirit of Democracy (2008), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1989). He has edited or coedited more than fifty books, including China’s Influence and American Interests (2019, with Orville Schell), Silicon Triangle: The United States, China, Taiwan the Global Semiconductor Security (2023, with James O. Ellis Jr. and Orville Schell), and The Troubling State of India’s Democracy (2024, with Sumit Ganguly and Dinsha Mistree).

During 2002–03, Diamond served as a consultant to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and was a contributing author of its report, Foreign Aid in the National Interest. He has advised and lectured to universities and think tanks around the world, and to the World Bank, the United Nations, the State Department, and other organizations dealing with governance and development. During the first three months of 2004, Diamond served as a senior adviser on governance to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad. His 2005 book, Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq, was one of the first books to critically analyze America's postwar engagement in Iraq.

Among Diamond’s other edited books are Democracy in Decline?; Democratization and Authoritarianism in the Arab World; Will China Democratize?; and Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, all edited with Marc F. Plattner; and Politics and Culture in Contemporary Iran, with Abbas Milani. With Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, he edited the series, Democracy in Developing Countries, which helped to shape a new generation of comparative study of democratic development.

Download full-resolution headshot; photo credit: Rod Searcey.

Former Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law
Faculty Chair, Jan Koum Israel Studies Program
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Kristen Lee is the Executive Assistant for Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). She graduated from Stanford University with a B.A. in History, focusing on the United States. Prior to joining Shorenstein APARC, she worked with the Chinese Railroad Workers in North America Project and the the Investment Responsibility Panel at Stanford University, as well as in educational and public outreach at the National Archives in Washington, D.C.
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Takeo Hoshi, a senior fellow at FSI in residence at Shorenstein APARC, analyzes Japan’s fiscal condition and develops future tax and budget-tightening alternatives in a new journal article. He argues Japan’s situation is not sustainable, suggesting fiscal reform is necessary in order to maintain current living standards and public services.
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Recent public opinion polls in China and Japan expose a “striking degree of hostility,” highlighting a clash in narratives between the two countries. Phillip Lipscy says in an op-ed in AlJazeera America that Japan’s conservatives are “misguided in seeking to reinvigorate their country by revising history,” and instead should rally the country “around dreams of the future.”
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Abstract:

Why do some ruling parties last in power for decades despite facing regular, contested elections?  Well-known examples include the PRI in Mexico, the LDP in Japan, the PAP in Singapore, and the ANC in South Africa. The existence of these long-lived “dominant parties” raises normative concerns: can we really call these regimes democratic if there is never, or rarely, ruling party turnover? They also present a theoretical puzzle: if opposition parties are able to contest elections that decide who rules, why do they consistently fail to win? In this talk, I approach these questions by focusing on variation in ruling party duration.  Drawing on a combination of quantitative and qualitative evidence, I show that “dominant” parties are typically the first to hold office in a new regime, and often have played a central role in founding it.  As a consequence, these ruling parties frequently start out with enormous electoral advantages over their competitors in the party system, including a strong party “brand,” a disciplined and well-resourced party organization, and the ability to shape and manipulate the rules of competition. These advantages allow them to endure in power by winning consecutive elections for a generation or more.  Only with the erosion of these advantages do elections become more competitive, and the risk of ruling party defeat increases. Once dominant parties are defeated, subsequent partisan competition becomes much more even, and regular rotation in power becomes the norm.  Thus, one-party dominance is best thought of as a kind of temporary “adolescence” on the way to fully consolidated democracy.  

Speaker Bio:

Kharis Templeman received a BA (2002) from the University of Rochester and a Ph.D. in political science (2012) from the University of Michigan. A fluent Mandarin speaker, he has lived, worked, and traveled extensively in both Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China.  As a graduate student, he worked in Taipei at the Election Study Center, National Cheng Chi University, and later was a dissertation research fellow at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy.  His dissertation examined the development of Taiwan’s competitive party system from a comparative perspective, including a large study of the origins and decline of dominant party systems around the world over the last 60 years.

Current research interests include democratization, party system development in newly-contested regimes, and political institutions, with a regional focus on the new and transitioning democracies of Pacific Asia.  He is currently a regional manager for the Varieties of Democracy project.  Other ongoing collaborations include research on constitutional design for divided societies, on the arms-allies tradeoff in client states, and on intra-tribal voting coordination in elections in Jordan.

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Cervical cancer is the third most common cancer among women worldwide and Mongolia has one of the highest incidence rates in Eastern Asia. Prevention and early detection programs are essential to counteract its prevalence, especially in developing countries.

However, women encounter barriers to knowledge and access to cervical cancer screening services in Mongolia – a country with low population density. The urban–rural divide, lagging healthcare reform, and cultural differences are cited as core factors leading to lack of awareness and treatment.

 Gendengarjaa Baigalimaa

To address the rising burden, a national cervical cancer screening program was implemented in August 2012 by Mongolia’s Ministry of Health (MOH) facilitated by a grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation.

Gendengarjaa Baigalimaa, the 2013-14 Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow at Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute, has been evaluating the effects of that program. She serves as a gynecological oncologist at the Mongolian National Cancer Center (NCC). Her early findings show that awareness of cervical cancer has increased, and more women and girls are now getting screened. Gendengarjaa recently talked about her research, which she will present at a seminar on April 9.

What does your “typical” patient look like at the NCC and how has your work informed your research?

Patients typically arrive at the NCC with an advanced stage of disease – 70 percent of these women have progressive forms of cervical cancer. Of course it is not easy to work with patients who are this far along, especially if we are unable to offer full palliative services. As the only cancer center in the nation, just 10 gynecological oncologists are available to take on the high demand for treatment services. Healthcare providers and policymakers designed the Mongolian Cervical Cancer Program to address the alarming incidence rate. My research analyzes behavioral change before and after the introduction of the national screening program, bearing in mind my experiences with my own patients.

What does the national cervical cancer screening program facilitate? 

Local doctors and midwives received training on how to administer cervical cancer screening.

Before the program was implemented, regular cervical cancer screening did not exist in Mongolia. The program diffused and strengthened primary care screening services (Pap test) as well as prevention programs. Gynecological doctors from the NCC were systematically dispatched to the 338 soums or districts throughout the nation. They trained local doctors and midwives on how to administer the Pap test.  The program coordinated two initiatives: a pilot HPV vaccination program for girls aged 11-15 years from four select areas and a Pap test program for women aged 30-60 years. The women and girls who participated are urged to get screened every three years thereafter. Health education campaigns were also broadcast on select television and radio programs targeted at women and girls.

Comparing a survey taken at the program’s outset in 2010 to your survey at the program’s conclusion in 2013, what behavioral changes have been observed?

Our preliminary results have shown increased knowledge about risk factors and screening services. Women in both rural and urban areas are now more informed about cervical cancer risk factors. Awareness of the need for a Pap test increased from 15.3 percent in 2010 to 45.3 percent in 2013. The respondents also reported being more educated about the suggested frequency of visiting a doctor, and the availability of services outside of Ulaanbaatar. Due to increased knowledge, 54.2 percent of the women surveyed confirmed that they had attended cervical screening services.

What impact did the program have on younger generations?

We analyzed mothers’ attitude toward the HPV vaccination and their openness to their daughters receiving it. Awareness of the vaccine’s ability to prevent cervical cancer improved from 15.3 percent in 2010 to 45.3 percent in 2013. Our results show that 81.7 percent of mothers agreed on the importance of vaccination for their daughters once they become aware of the option. The same study conducted in 2010 showed only 28 percent of the respondents were aware of the vaccine’s existence and its connection to cancer prevention. Positive perceptions toward vaccination are very important because the vaccine can prevent one of the major causes of cervical cancer.

How were geographical divisions and local stigmas toward cancer considered?

An example of a poster that advertises cervical screening now found in local clinics.

Mongolia has 21 aimags or provinces further divided into numerous baghs or villages; each population has different priorities. Cultural relevance is key in advertising and implementing cancer screening and vaccination programs. For example, the program sought out input from local women’s and community groups in each aimag to inform about local customs. Cervical cancer screening was also linked to important events in a women’s life, i.e. becoming a mother or grandmother, to make it easier for the patient to validate resources spent. The program also set up a system of sending personalized invitations for screening during patients’ birthday months every three years.

What secondary reinforcements were used to campaign for cancer screening?

Media and targeted marketing were used to strengthen the message outside of the doctor–patient setting. Printed materials were placed in family practice clinics. The first lady of Mongolia generated media attention regarding the HPV vaccine for young girls. Beyond individual counseling, group awareness and other reinforcements can motivate participating women to follow treatment recommendations and reinforce satisfaction. The hope is that these women will then encourage other women to get screened.

Gendengarjaa will present her research with Naranbaatar Dashdorj, founder and chairman of the Onom Foundation and a 2014 Sloan Fellow at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, on April 9. The event is open to the public; more information can be found by clicking the link below.

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In a March 22 interview with the Seoul Shinmun newspaper, KSP associate director David Straub discussed the U.S. role in bringing together South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Japanese Prime Minister Abe in a trilateral summit with President Obama to address the North Korea problem.

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U.S. President Barack Obama holds a tri-lateral meeting with President Park Geun-hye of the South Korea (L) and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan (R) after the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague March 25, 2014. | Reuters/Kevin Lamarque (Netherlands)
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Since the democratization of Indonesia began in 1998, the country’s military has been undergoing major change. It has significantly altered or is preparing to change its organizational structure, doctrinal precepts, education and training formats, and personnel policies. Partly to acquire advanced weaponry, its budget has more than tripled in the past decade. Why? Is Indonesia preparing to become a regional military power? Answering a growing potential threat from China in the South China Sea? Compensating for the loss of military influence under democratic reform? And how will the military fare under new national leadership following this year’s elections?

Evan A. Laksmana is a doctoral candidate in political science at the Maxwell School, a researcher with the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (Jakarta), and a non-resident German Marshall Fund fellow. He has taught at the Indonesian Defense University (Jakarta) and has held research and visiting positions at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (Singapore) and the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (Honolulu). Journals that have published his work include Asian Security, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Defence Studies, the Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, Harvard Asia Quarterly, and the Journal of Strategic Studies. He tweets @stratbuzz.

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Evan A. Laksmana Fulbright Presidential Scholar, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs Speaker Syracuse University
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Anja Manuel and Lauryn Williams assess the impact of the India-U.S. nuclear deal, which is now in it's 8th year. They argue that it has been hugely successful for the environment and India-U.S. relations, but mixed on the issue of nonproliferation. 

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Michelle Obama promoted study abroad programs during a speech at the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing on Saturday, then encouraged Stanford and local high school students sitting in Palo Alto to be "citizen diplomats" during a high-tech videoconference.

In her remarks before the conversation with students, the first lady said that study abroad is a "vital part of our foreign policy."

"Study abroad is about shaping the future of your countries and the world we all share," she said.

Studying in a different country gives students the chance to immerse themselves in another culture, she said.

"That's how you realize that we all have a stake in each other's success – that cures discovered here in Beijing could save lives in America," she said. "That clean energy technologies from Silicon Valley in California could improve the environment here in China; that the architecture of an ancient temple in Xi'an could inspire the design of new buildings in Dallas or Detroit."

Obama spoke before an audience of 170 students, scholars, and alumni at the Stanford Center at Peking University (SCPKU) in Beijing – her only scheduled public appearance during a trip to China with her daughters.

"Two great universities, two great countries. The symbolism behind this event is truly remarkable," said Xinkai Mao, MBA '14. "My wife went to PKU and I go to Stanford. What a connection!"

Mao attended the event with Stanford Graduate School of Business classmate Paul Chen, MBA '14. Both lead a China study trip for fellow students starting Sunday.

Max Baucus, Washington's ambassador to Beijing, and a graduate of Stanford and the university's law school, reinforced Obama's message of personal learning and diplomacy, recounting his own exchange studies in France.

"I am standing here because of my experience at a study abroad program," he said.

Thirty-five years after the normalization of relations with China, the U.S. is supporting more American students in China than in any other country in the world.

"We're sending high school, college and graduate students here to study Chinese," Obama said. "We're inviting teachers from China to teach Mandarin in American schools. We're providing free online advising for students in China who want to study in the U.S. and the U.S. China Fulbright program is still going strong with more than 3,000 alumni."

The largest group of foreign students enrolled at Stanford today are Chinese – 860 students, up from about 600 two years ago.

"You can't learn what the First Lady is talking about only through books," said Chien Lee, BSMS '75, MBA '79, a former Stanford trustee and SCPKU's lead donor. "You have to have an in-person experience. That's what helps you appreciate the subtleties and differences. The center provides a place for people to have that exchange."

Milestone for SCPKU

The first lady's visit came the day after the second anniversary of SCPKU's opening. The center made Stanford the first American university to construct a building for its own use on a major Chinese university campus. 

Obama's conversation with students sitting at Stanford's campus showcased the "highly immersive classrooms" at SCPKU and the Graduate School of Business. The rooms are identical, and use high-definition video technology to give participants in both locations the feeling that they are in the same room. The rooms will be used to conduct seminars between scholars at Stanford and PKU, and will also be used by the business school to expand the reach of its faculty.

Michelle Obama with Stanford students at the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing.

Michelle Obama with Stanford students at the Stanford Center at Peking University in Beijing.
Photo Credit: Stanford University

The classroom features a curved wall of video screens and allows seamless conversation and real-time data sharing with participants on different continents.

"Through the wonders of modern technology, our world is more connected than ever before," Obama said. "Ideas can cross oceans with the click of a button. You don't need to get on a plane to be a citizen diplomat. If you have an Internet connection in your home, school or library, within seconds you can be transported anywhere in the world and meet people on every continent."

Sitting in the immersive classroom at SCPKU, Obama encouraged students to use all the resources at their disposal to become well-informed global citizens and decision makers, and to enrich the relationship between the U.S. and China.  

"The creation of a global citizen is a critical mission of the great universities in modern times," said alumnus David Chao, MBA '93, who manages a global venture capital firm and attended Obama's speech.  "When you have a global citizen with empathy, someone pushing the nuclear button is highly unlikely. It's especially relevant, when you see what's going on in Ukraine right now with people refusing to talk."

From neurology to energy and art

Stanford and Peking University have a long and growing collaboration that began with scholarly exchanges in the 1970s and student exchanges thereafter. 

In remarks welcoming the first lady, Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, the Stanley Morrison Professor of Law at Stanford Law School and Director of Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, spoke of SCPKU's mission and its relationship to China's elite Peking University, also known as Beida.

"Stanford scholars – like their counterparts at Beida – are constantly seeking a deeper appreciation of different societies and their histories," Cuéllar said. "That leads to stronger relationships –geographically, politically and culturally. We are striving for a world that is ever more capable of transcending its differences. Stanford's special relationship with Beida is a shining example of these ideals."

Nine Stanford teaching and research programs, including the School of Medicine's Asian Liver Center, the Bing Overseas Studies Program, and the Graduate School of Business, have located operations at SCPKU. Seventeen faculty fellows from departments as diverse as neurology, art, bioengineering and music, have conducted research at the center. SCPKU has also hosted 32 workshops or seminars on topics as varied as "Leveraging PCs to Advance Learning in China's Rural Schools," "Energy in China," and "New Urban Formations: Comparative Urbanization."

The first cohort of 20 Stanford undergraduates to study at the center will arrive for their 10-week program March 31. The center already has been home to a meeting of U.S.-China officials discussing North Korea's nuclear program and a conference of electrical engineers reviewing Technology Standardization. China 2.0, a forum on venture capital and entrepreneurship organized by the Graduate School of Business, will be held at the center April 11.

The future

Looking ahead, SCPKU aspires to tackle intellectual questions that address not just the political economy and culture of China, but also the challenges that arise as China engages other parts of the world in trade. China's geopolitical interests and actions in Latin America, Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia are all important questions that Stanford faculty want to address. "The center can and should be a research destination for Stanford faculty whose work touches on China but is not necessarily solely focused on the country or region," said Jean Oi, professor of political science, director of SCPKU, and a driving force behind the center's creation.

As SCPKU activity and scholarship continues to evolve, technology also will allow its intellectual content to reach a wider audience beyond the Beijing campus.

Barbara Buell is the communications director for Stanford's Graduate School of Business.

 

 

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