Stanford University

Brzezinski Assesses Asia

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Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, delivered the Oksenberg Lecture March 9. Brzezinski asserted that by the year 2020, the "world's five most important countries" likely will be, in the following order, the United States, the European Union, China, Japan and India. The event was presented by the Stanford Institute for International Studies.
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North Korea: Thinking about Coercive Diplomacy, Regime change and Red Lines

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The Six Party Talks have failed to produce results, and the prospect of a negotiated settlement between the U.S. and North Korea appear to be dwindling rapidly -- North Korea has steadfastly refused to participate in any multilateral process; it says it now has a nuclear weapons and recently test fired a missile into the East Sea. These concerns exist amid current reporting that North Korea may at some point test a nuclear device. Philip Yun will discuss where he sees things going and talk about the prospects of a possible Bush policy based on a coercive diplomacy.

Philip Yun has had a career that encompasses politics, law, diplomacy, business, and now academia. Before joining Shorenstein APARC, Philip Yun was a senior executive of H&Q Asia Pacific, a premier U.S. private equity firm investing in Asia. From 1994 to 2001, he served as an official at the United States Department of State, during which he worked as a senior advisor to Winston Lord and Stanley Roth; served as a deputy head U.S. delegate to the Korea peace talks based in Geneva, Switzerland; and participated in high-level U.S. negotiations with North Korea, including trips to North Korea with Dr. William J. Perry and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Before entering government service, he practiced law at major firms in the U.S. and Korea.

Philippines Conference Room

Philip Yun

APARC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, Room E301
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 724-9747 (650) 723-6530
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Pantech Visiting Scholar
JD

Philip W. Yun is currently vice president for Resource Development at The Asia Foundation, based in San Francisco. Prior to joining The Asia Foundation, Yun was a Pantech Scholar in Korean Studies at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.

At Stanford, his research focused on the economic and political future of Northeast Asia. From 2001 to 2004, Yun was vice president and assistant to the chairman of H&Q Asia Pacific, a premier U.S. private equity firm investing in Asia. From 1994 to 2001, Yun served as an official at the United States Department of State, serving as a senior advisor to two Assistant Secretaries of State, as a deputy to the head U.S. delegate to the four-party Korea peace talks and as a senior policy advisor to the U.S. Coordinator for North Korea Policy.

Prior to government service, Yun practiced law at the firms of Pillsbury Madison & Sutro in San Francisco and Garvey Schubert & Barer in Seattle, and was a foreign legal consultant in Seoul, Korea. Yun attended Brown University and the Columbia School of Law. He graduated with an A.B. in mathematical economics (magna cum laude and phi beta kappa) and was a Fulbright Scholar to Korea. He is on the board of directors of the Ploughshares Fund and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy.

Philip Yun Speaker
Seminars

The Trans-Atlantic Family - Counseling, Mediation or Divorce

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Christopher Patten, Rt. Honorable Lord Patten of Barnes and Chancellor of Oxford University; former Governor of Hong Kong; and former External Affairs Commissioner of the European Union, is Stanford IIS's 2005 Distinguished Payne Lecturer.

Bechtel Conference Center

The Honorable Christopher Patten Chancellor of Oxford University
Lectures
Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Lecture Series

Political Reform in the Middle East: How Far Is It Going?

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Marina S. Ottaway specializes in democracy and post-conflict reconstruction issues. She is a Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project, a research endeavor that analyzes the state of democracy around the world and the efforts by the United States and other countries to promote democracy. Her new book, Democracy Challenged, a comparative study of semiauthoritarian regimes in Africa, the Caucasus, Latin America, and the Middle East, was published in January 2003. Her current works focus on political transformation in the Middle East and reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan.

She is also a lecturer in African Studies at the Nitze School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. Ottaway carried out research in Africa and in the Middle East and taught at the University of Addis Ababa, the University of Zambia, the American University in Cairo, and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.

She received her undergraduate educatin at University of Pavia, Italy and her Ph.D. from Columbia University. Ottaway's selected Publications include, Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism (Carnegie, 2003); Funding Virtue: Civil Society Aid and Democracy Promotion, edited with Thomas Carothers (Carnegie, 2000); Africa's New Leaders: Democracy or State Reconstruction? (Carnegie, 1999)

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Marina Ottaway Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Seminars

Mobilizing the State as Public Risk Mitigator

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Dr. Hilton Root, an academic and policy specialist in international political economy and development joined the Faculty of Pitzer, a member of Claremont Colleges, as Freeman Fellow from June 2003 to June 2005. Before joining, he served the current administration as US Executive Director Designate of the Asian Development Bank, and as senior advisor on development finance to the Department of the Treasury. Dr. Root was Director and Senior Fellow of Global Studies at the Milken Institute and was a Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Initiative on Economic Growth and Democracy at the Hoover Institution. His areas of expertise are international economics, economic development and policy reform, and Asian affairs.

As a policy expert, Dr. Root advises the Asian Development Bank, the IMF, the World Bank, the UNDP, the OECD, the US State Department, the US Treasury Department and USAID. He has completed projects in 23 countries. The analytical framework he contributed to the World Bank's Asian Miracle study, 1993, was part of the effort to put institutions on the development agenda. While at the ADB as chief advisor on governance, he was the principal author of the ADB's Board-approved governance policy. He presided over a committee on governance indicators at the OECD and initiated the restructuring of the Sri Lanka civil service as an advisor to President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga. He was one of the principal contributors to the design of the Millenium Challenge Account of the Bush administration.

As an academic, he has taught at the University of Michigan, California Institute of Technology, the University of Pennsylvania and Stanford University. Dr. Root has written and lectured extensively, publishing six books and more than 100 articles. He is a frequent contributor to the Wall Street Journal Asia, the International Herald Tribune, Los Angeles Times and the Washington Post. He has published and presented in both the English and the French languages and has been translated into many languages including Chinese, Korean and Japanese.

He has been awarded honors for The Key to the East Asian Miracle: Making Shared Growth Credible (with J. Edgardo Campos), which won the 1997 Charles H. Levine Award for best book of the year by the International Political Science Association. The Social Sciences History Association awarded him the 1995 best book prize of its Economic History Section for The Fountain of Privilege: Political Foundations of Markets in Old Regime France and England. From the American Historical Association he received the Chester Higby Prize, 1986, for the best article among those published during the previous two years. He is on the board of a number of organizations and journals including the Open Society Institute, Center for Public Integrity and Review of Pacific Basin Markets and Policies. Dr. Root received his doctorate from the University of Michigan in 1983.

Encina Basement Conference Room

Hilton Root Professor or Economics Claremont Colleges, Claremont, CA
Seminars

Institutions and Impersonal Exchange: The European Experience

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Avner Greif, noted Stanford Economic historian, will speak on his current research. Avner Greif received his Ph.D. from Northwestern University and his B.A. from Tel Aviv University. His research interests include European economic history, the historical development of economic institutions, their interrelations with political, social and cultural factors and their impact on economic growth. His current research focuses on institutional development and economic growth in pre-modern Europe, as well as coercion and markets.

Greif's recent publications include "A Theory of Endogenous Institutional Change," (with David Laitin) American Political Science Review, 2004; "Cultural Beliefs and the Organization of Society: Historical and Theoretical Reflection on Collectivist and Individualist Societies," The Journal of Political Economy, (October 1994); and "Coordination, Commitment and Enforcement: The Case of the Merchant Gild" (with Paul Milgrom and Barry Weingast), The Journal of Political Economy, (August 1994).

Avner Greif is a faculty associate at CDDRL.

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Avner Greif

Department of Economics
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6072

(650) 725-8936 (650) 725-5702
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, Emeritus
Bowman Family Endowed Professor in the Humanities and Sciences
avner_greif.jpg PhD

Avner Greif is Professor of Economics and Bowman Family Endowed Professor in Humanities and Sciences at Stanford. His research interests include European economic history: the historical development of economic institutions, their interrelations with political, social and cultural factors and their impact on economic growth. Some of his publications are: Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade, Cambridge University Press (March 2006); Impersonal Exchange without Impartial Law: The Community Responsibility System, Chicago Journal of International Law (2004); How Do Self-enforcing Institutions Endogenously Change? Institutional Reinforcement and Quasi-Parameters (with David Laitin), the American Political Science Review (2003); Analytic Narratives, Oxford University Press, 1998. Avner Greif received his Ph. D. in economics from Northwestern University, and his B.A. in economics and history - from Tel Aviv University.

Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Avner Greif The Bowman Family Endowed Professor in Humanities and Sciences and Professor, by courtesy of History, and Senior Fellow, by courtesy at SIEPR Speaker
Seminars

Adventures in Nation-Building: Afghanistan, U.S. Foreign Policy, and the Post-9/11 World

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CDDRL Fellow, J. Alexander Thier will discuss Afghanistan's experiences with nation building, particularly in the post-Taliban era. J Alexander Thier was legal advisor to Afghanistan's Constitutional and Judicial Reform Commissions in Kabul in 2003-2004, where he assisted in the development of a new constitution and judicial system. In 2002 Alex worked in Kabul as a Constitutional and Legal expert to the British Department for International Development, and as Senior Analyst for the International Crisis Group.

Encina Basement Conference Room

J Alexander Thier Visiting Fellow CDDRL
Seminars

Remembering Y2K: The Impact Today

Authors
Rafiq Dossani
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Y2K was shorthand for the potentially disastrous failure of computer systems at the turn of the millennium. The problem: Many old software systems might read "00" as 1900--not 2000--a glitch that could lead to a cascade of errors and malfunctions. Year two thousand came, and nothing happened--well, not much anyway. A credit card mistake here. A satellite blackout there. But no lives lost. No global economic catastrophe. Monday, January 3 was just another workday. Yet with the benefit of hindsight the economic impact of Y2K on America was far greater than the $100 billion-plus government and business spent on fixing the computer glitch. Chris Farrell reports.

Chris Farrell: Remember the dot-com boom of the 1990s? It seemed as if every entrepreneur with a good idea and a PC could challenge established companies for customers. Brick-and-mortar companies jumped on the e-commerce bandwagon. The demand for digital workers soared. Long-time computer professionals hopped from job to job, pulling down more money with every employer. Newly minted college graduates juggled multiple job offers. But when the Y2K problem emerged in the latter part of the '90s business and government quickly realized there still weren't enough IT workers on hand to find and repair the computer glitch. The quick fix? Hire computer professionals overseas. And that temporary solution permanently changed the global economy.

Paul Saffo: Y2K was huge in getting the ball rolling on offshoring.

Farrell: Paul Saffo is director of the Institute for the Future, a high-tech think tank in Silicon Valley.

Saffo: But once they went overseas, they discovered it's not just a matter of cost. These programmers overseas are often better than the best you can get in the United States.

Farrell: Ireland, the Philippines, and Israel were among the more popular destinations for offshoring Y2K programming fixes. But India became the offshore capital. It had plenty of high-tech companies staffed with well-educated English speaking digital workers. Thanks to India's steep import barriers in the 1980s, no one could afford new computer systems. So Indian tech workers were the world's leading experts in the older software languages that needed upgrading. Suhas Patil is chairman emeritus of semiconductor maker Cirrus Logic.

Suhas Patil: And they were listening to their customers and what their needs were, and as the recognition came that systems had to be upgraded to not have the problem based on the Y2K issues, that's how they got their break.

Farrell: And made the most of the opportunity. AnnaLee Saxenian is Dean of the School of Information Management and Systems at the University of California, Berkeley.

AnnaLee Saxenian: I think the importance of Y2K was overwhelmingly about establishing Indian companies' reputation among US customers and helping begin a set of customer supplier relationships that have simply taken off in the last four years.

Farrell: Of course, Y2K contracts ended in 2000. Yet many Indian companies took advantage of their now sterling programming reputations to negotiate for more sophisticated work. Research. Software development. Accounting services. Long-distance medical advice. Rafiq Dossani is a senior research scholar at Stanford University.

Rafiq Dossani: India is now growing at 70-80 per cent a year in offshored services ... services which are maintaining an accounting system, maintaining an HR system, doing claims processing, that's growing easily at 70 per cent, maybe even higher.

Farrell: Offshore also came onshore during Y2K. The town of Mountain View lies at the heart of California's Silicon Valley. Housed in one of the many nondescript low-rise office buildings that crowd the region's business avenues is the Indus Entrepreneur, or TIE. It is a networking base for the Indian high-tech Diaspora.

Shankar Muniyappa: Y2K was a big opening as early as 98.

Farrell: Shankar Muniyappa is director of information systems for TIE. He came to America for Y2K-and stayed.

Muniyappa: Myself and many of us believe still believe this is the place where you need to be if you want to be middle of innovation.

Farrell: Some 30,000 Indian IT professionals now live and work in the Valley. Rafiq Dossani of Stanford University:

Dossani: At least 25 per cent of the start ups have Indian employees at fairly senior levels working for them. And ... there's a whole infrastructure therefore being built around them because it's a substantial number now, so you see shopping malls you see business services and so on catering to this particular immigrant community.

Farrell: That community is adding vitality to the American economy. Still, many American high-tech workers are threatened by the offshoring of white collar jobs. The numbers are murky, but according to Mark Zandi of Economy.com 370,000 non-manufacturing jobs moved overseas over the past fours years-with most of the information technology jobs going to India. Salaries are down too. Still, the big factor behind the loss of 1.5 million jobs lost since Y2K is improved business efficiency or productivity - not offshoring. And Y2K also played an important role in boosting business efficiency.

Economists initially looked at Y2K as a productivity killer.

Imagine a town threatened by a rising river. Every able-bodied person in town is put to work stacking sandbags. It's necessary work to save the town - but it's unproductive work. Nothing gets built. No food gets grown.

With the Y2K bug, programmers, chief information officers, project managers, and other digital workers were getting paid to do unproductive work - stacking sandbags of silicon. No innovative investments. No new productivity enhancing software.

But economists were wrong. Y2K wasn't a flood. Instead, think of it as clearing a path choked with underbrush. Once the trail is open, it is much easier to zip from point A to point B. Y2K gave companies an excuse to clean up their software and hardware underbrush - a critical factor in today's improved business productivity. Paul Saffo:

Saffo: A lot of companies said well, gosh, if we're going to have to spend all this money to fix our software let's also see what else we can do at the same time, so it was an invitation to replace a whole bunch of stuff. ... So it forced people to ask hard questions about how they were using things and in the best instances people really did become more efficient.

Farrell: The result? Companies used the new systems they installed to cut costs and work smarter - and hire fewer workers.

[Voice of Leonard Nimoy: "Do you have hard copies of all your important documents ... such as bank statements."]

That's Leonard Nimoy, Mr. Spock from Star Trek. He's narrating the Y2K Family Survival Guide video - one of thousands of products peddled by prophets of doom. Y2K did bring home how reliant we all are on computers. Many of us still don't back up critical data at home. The same isn't true for business and government. Many learned from Y2K just how vulnerable information systems are to a malicious attack or unforeseen disaster. Case in point: Y2K actually helped some businesses survive 9/11.

[News broadcast of President George W. Bush: "I've directed the full resources of intelligence and law enforcement communities to find those responsible and bring them to justice."]

The attack on the World Trade Center stopped trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Against the odds, that citadel of capitalism opened six days later.

John Koskinen: The reason the markets, securities markets, were able to open the Monday after the Tuesday of 9-11 was they still had the test scripts that had been developed in 1998 and 99.

Farrell: John Koskinen credits preparations for Y2K. He was President Clinton's Y2K czar.

Koskinen: ... they were able to in effect take all of those Y2K scripts and make sure that all the transactions with all of the major players would close. Without that they never would have been able to do it in the time frame with the confidence they had.

Farrell: A record 2.4 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange the day it reopened.

Y2K was a unique economic event. Earlier jolts to the economy, like the 1973 oil price hike and the 2001 attack of 9/11, were shocks. But the Year 2000 arrived right on schedule. The surprise was how little immediate impact the much-feared transition had on the economy. Yet we're still living and working with the economic impact of Y2K five years later.

For Marketplace and American RadioWorks, I'm Chris Farrell.

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FSI International Conference: Challenges in a New Era

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A full day of speeches, discussions, and interaction on critical international issues.

MAIN SPEAKERS

Samuel R. Berger, Chairman of Stonebridge International and former National Security Advisor

Hans Blix, Chairman, Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission and former U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq

Paul Collier, Professor of Economics, Oxford University

Philip Zelikow, Counselor of the Department of State and former Executive Director of the 9/11 Commission

CHECK IN 7:30 AM

BREAKFAST & WELCOME 8 AM - 9 AM

WELCOME

John Hennessy, President, Stanford University

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

Coit D. Blacker, SIIS Director, and William J. Perry, former Secretary of Defense

MORNING PLENARY SESSIONS 9 AM - 12:30 PM

Hans Blix on the risks of a new nuclear arms race and Paul Collier on governance and democracy.

LUNCH 1 PM

SPEAKER

Philip Zelikow, The United States and the World

AFTERNOON SESSIONS 2:30 PM - 5:45 PM

Breakout sessions with Stanford faculty, policy-makers, international academics, and journalists, on issues such as reform of the United Nations, our energy future, U.S. policy in Korea, the future of U.S./European relations, Russia, international criminal justice and peace, global climate change, and international responses to infectious diseases.

PARTICIPATING STANFORD FACULTY & SCHOLARS INCLUDE

Donald Kennedy, Larry Diamond, Michael Armacost, Gi-Wook Shin, Stephen Stedman, Scott Sagan, Christopher Chyba, Lynn Eden, David Victor, Allen Weiner, Alan Garber, Amir Eshel, Kathryn Stoner-Weiss, Doug Owens, John McMillan, and Dan Okimoto.

RECEPTION 6 PM

DINNER 7 PM

SPEAKER

Samuel R. Berger, U.S. Foreign Policy: The Road Ahead.

Frances C. Arrillaga Alumni Center

Conferences
FSI International Conference

Cyprus in the European Union: Challenges and Opportunities

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The accession of Cyprus to the European Union (EU) in May of 2004 constitutes the most positive strategic development in the history of the island state since its independence in 1960. In the last two years, the Cypriot people have experienced watershed events, filled with frustrations, challenges but also opportunities. Cyprus' EU membership has extended the borders of the EU to the strategic corner of the Eastern Mediterranean and has brought the Middle East ever closer to Europe. It is hoped that Cyprus' EU membership can contribute to the expansion of peace, stability, security and prosperity in the area. Cyprus is situated at the crossroads of three continents and civilizations, where global political and economic interests, as well as international security concerns, converge. Together with its American ally and with the help of its European partners Cyprus aspires to play a positive role, and to act as a bridge of mutual understanding and the promotion of sustained and result oriented dialogue between its Middle Eastern neighbors and Europe. At the same time, Cyprus strives to achieve a just, permanent, functional and mutually acceptable solution to the Cyprus problem, an end of the Turkish military occupation, reunification and prosperity for all Cypriots within their common European home.

His Excellency Euripides L. Evriviades presented his credentials as the Ambassador of the Republic of Cyprus to the United States to President George W. Bush on 4 December 2003. He is also accredited as High Commissioner to Canada. Ambassador Evriviades served as Ambassador of Cyprus to the Netherlands from August 2000 to October 2003. Prior to his posting in The Hague, he served as the Ambassador to Israel from November 1997 until July 2000. Earlier in his career, Mr. Evriviades held positions at Cypriot embassies in Tripoli, Libya; Moscow, USSR/Russia; and Bonn, Germany.

CISAC Conference Room

H. E. Euripides L. Evriviades Ambassador of the Republic of Cyprus to the United States
Lectures
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