Encina Hall, East Wing,
Ground Floor, E008
Lyman and Morrison will discuss the Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored Independent Task Force Report on the US and Africa. The Report argues that Africa is becoming steadily more central to the United States and to the rest of the world in ways that transcend humanitarian interests. Africa now plays an increasingly significant role in supplying energy, preventing the spread of terrorism, and halting the devastation of HIV/AIDS. Africa's growing importance is reflected in the intensifying competition with China and other countries for both access to African resources and influence in this region. A more comprehensive U.S. policy toward Africa is needed, the report states, and it lays out recommendations for policymakers to craft that policy. The report is available at www.cfr.org.
Princeton N. Lyman is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow and Director for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University. Ambassador Lyman served for over three decades at the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), completing his government service as Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs. He was previously Ambassador to South Africa, Ambassador to Nigeria, Director of Refugee Programs and Director of the USAID Mission to Ethiopia.
From 1999 to 2000, he was Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace. Ambassador Lyman held the position of Executive Director of the Global Interdependence Initiative of the Aspen Institute (1999 to 2003) and has received the President's Distinguished Service Award and the Department of State Distinguished Honor Award. Ambassador Lyman has published on foreign policy, African affairs, economic development, HIV/AIDS, UN reform, and peacekeeping. He coauthored the Council on Foreign Relations Special Report entitled Giving Meaning to "Never Again": Seeking an Effective Response to the Crisis in Darfur and Beyond. His book, Partner to History: The U.S. Role in South Africa's Transition to Democracy, was published in 2002. He earned his B.A. from the University of California at Berkeley and his Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University. He serves as the Co-Director of the Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored Independent Task Force on Africa.
J. Stephen Morrison is Director of the Africa Program and the Task Force on HIV/AIDS at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He joined CSIS in January 2000 and in late 2001, launched the CSIS Task Force on HIV/AIDS. The task force is a multiyear project co-chaired by Senators Bill Frist (R-TN) and John Kerry (D-MA) and funded by the Gates Foundation and the Catherine Marron Foundation. Dr. Morrison co-chaired the reassessment of the U.S. approach to Sudan that laid the basis for the Bush administration push for a negotiated peace settlement, and in the summer of 2002 he organized an energy expert mission to the Sudan peace negotiations in Kenya.
From 1996 through early 2000, Dr. Morrison served on the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff, where he was responsible for African affairs and global foreign assistance issues. In that position, he led the State Department's initiative on illicit diamonds and chaired an interagency review of the U.S. government's crisis humanitarian programs. From 1993 to 1995, Dr. Morrison conceptualized and launched USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives; he served as the office's first Deputy Director and created post-conflict programs in Angola and Bosnia. From 1992 until mid-1993, Dr. Morrison was the Democracy and Governance Adviser to the U.S. embassies and USAID missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea. He serves as the Co-Director of the Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored Independent Task Force on Africa.
CISAC Conference Room
His Excellency Sir David Manning, British Ambassador to the United States, delivered the 2006 Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecture: "Energy: A Burning Issue for Foreign Policy," on Monday, March 13, 2006 at 4:30 p.m. in the Bechtel Conference Center at Encina Hall.
Sir David Manning has been Her Majesty's Ambassador to the United States of America since September 2, 2003.
Sir David Manning's Biography:
2003 - present: Washington, USA (Ambassador)
2001 - 2003: Foreign Policy Adviser to the Prime Minister
2001: UK Delegation NATO Brussels (Ambassador)
1998 - 2000: Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Deputy Under-Secretary)
1995 - 1998: Tel Aviv, Israel (Ambassador)
1994 - 1995: Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Head of Policy Planning Staff)
1994:UK member of Contact Group on Bosnia (International Conference on Former Yugoslavia)
1993 - 1994: Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Head of Eastern Department)
1990 - 1993: Moscow, Russia (Counselor, Head of Political Department)
1988 - 1990: Counselor on loan to Cabinet Office
1984 - 1988: Paris, France (1st Secretary)
1982 - 1984: Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Deputy Head of Policy Planning Staff)
1980 - 1982: Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Soviet Department, later Eastern Department)
1977 - 1980: New Delhi, India (2nd later 1st Secretary)
1974 - 1977: Warsaw, Poland (3rd later 2nd Secretary)
1972 - 1974: Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Mexico/Central America Department)
1972: Entered Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Philippines Conference Room
This talk scrutinizes the relationship between individual attitudes towards democracy and such contextual characteristics as the institutional framework and the level of socioeconomic development. For this purpose the individual evaluation of a democratic rule, experts rule, army rule, and a strong leader rule is considered. The analysis discovers a strong relationship between the individual political attitudes and different contextual factors. In particular, it turns out that pre-democratic views vary at both the national and the regional level. Democratic values, on the other hand, are rather evenly distributed within countries but also vary among countries. One finding is that the socioeconomic level has a strong impact on the occurrence of pre-democratic values. For those holding strong democratic beliefs, institutional factors such as the absence of an authoritarian regime in the recent past become more important than the socioeconomic level.
Encina Basement Conference Room
Thomas Carothers is a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project which analyzes the state of democracy in the world and the efforts by the United States and other countries to promote democracy. In addition, he has broad experience in matters dealing with human rights, international law, foreign aid, rule of law, and civil society development. He is the author or editor of six critically acclaimed books on democracy promotion as well as many articles in prominent journals and newspapers. He is adjunct professor at the Central European University in Budapest and serves on the board of various organizations devoted to democracy promotion.Prior to joining the Endowment, Carothers practiced international and financial law at Arnold & Porter and served as an attorney-adviser in the Office of the Legal Adviser of the U.S. Department of State.
Encina Basement Conference Room
We know the terrorist threat: an atomic bomb exploding in downtown Manhattan, a roadside bomb in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Yet Congress, against the wishes of New York's Senator Schumer, voted down a bill that would have facilitated complete surveillance of radio activity, the sort of surveillance that might actually prevent the demise of NYC. The price tag was $100 million of initial funding and it would have cost $100 billion altogether--expensive then, but cheap after Iraq and Katrina. So where are we now? We have still have terrorist threats and still have limited protection.
In my talk I want to give an affordable solution: mathematical modeling, using an even more magical bullet: Reflexive Theory. If we talk about security and cooperation, we need one thing, as important as the frontal lobe: a model of the self! That is, we need Reflexive Theory.
My presentation will be an exciting journey through a contemporary approach to counter-terrorism, based on the work of the famous mathematical psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre.
Stefan E. Schmidt is CEO of the research company Phoenix Mathematical Systems Modeling, Inc.; he is also a member of the graduate faculty of the Department of Mathematical Sciences at New Mexico State University and a fellow of the Center for Advanced Defense Studies. For the past five years, he has been working as Senior Research Scientist at the Physical Science Laboratory of New Mexico State University.
From fall 2004 to 2005, Schmidt was on a one-year professional leave from PSL to follow an invitation as visiting professor at the University of Technology in Dresden, Germany. Between 1995 and 2000, he has held research appointments at the University of California, Berkeley (1995-98), the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute (96/97), the Shannon Laboratory of AT&T (98/99), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1999-2000).
Previously, after his PhD in 1987 at the University of Technology in Darmstadt, Germany, Schmidt was assistant professor until 1995 at ainz University, Germany (as Hochschulassistent, Habilitation 1993).
Schmidt's scientific research ranges from discrete mathematics to applications in information sciences and network analysis; his expertise covers geometric algebra, order theory, combinatorics, formal concept analysis and reflexive theory--applied to communication networks, agent modeling and systems of systems analysis. His recent work includes modeling and simulating terrorist recruitment via reflexive theory as well as border protection via reflexive control. As a real world application of his scientific methods, he is currently involved in a long-term research project on the stock market (as a market of markets).
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Since the accession of ten new member states the European Union has launched a new effort to draw its neighbors, from Ukraine to Morocco, closer to the EU. This engagement goes beyond trade and aid to include participation in various internal EU policies and programs but stops short of offering full membership. Economic and political governance are high on the agenda. Bertin Martens will explain how this effort reinforces previous policies and could contribute to real change in the political and economic landscape around the EU.
Bertin Martens is Regional Economist for the Middle East & South Mediterranean in the European Commission's Directorate General for External Relations. He joined the European Commission in 1990 and has worked on various assignments in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe before. He holds a PhD in Economics from the Free University of Brussels and has been a Visiting Fellow at George Mason and Stanford universities. His academic research interests focus on institutional economics and governance.
CISAC Conference Room
In the days after 9/11, there was a widespread sentiment that suicidal terrorist attacks were irrational acts well beyond the bounds of quantitative risk assessment. Since then, terrorism risk models have been developed which are based on certain key theoretical principles that are validated by observational terrorism experience. These principles will be elaborated, and illustrated with examples from conflicts around the world.
Gordon Woo is a catastrophist, specializing on mathematical aspects of catastrophe risk modelling. He has developed a quantitative framework for modelling terrorism risk applied e. g. on the Olympic Games 2004 and the 2006 World Cup in Germany. Prior to this, his main focus has been on natural and environmental hazards. He has twenty years of practical experience in consulting for commercial, industrial and government organizations on major public risk issues varying from the disposal of radioactive waste, to oil pollution, flight safety, to earthquake, windstorm and flood protection.
Dr. Woo graduated as the top mathematician of his year at Cambridge University. He completed his PhD in theoretical physics as a Kennedy Scholar at M.I.T., after which he was elected a Junior Fellow of the Harvard University Society of Fellows. His work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek. In July 2004, he was named by Risk & Treasury Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in finance.
CISAC Conference Room
China's economic growth and integration with global markets is restructuring the world economy and raising issues important to the future of US companies and workers. In the US market, we hear concerns over a range of Chinese trade practices, including subsidies, dumping; and the exchange rate. In the China market, lack of enforcement of IP protections and non-market behaviors, such as subsidies and industrial policies, give rise to concerns that the deck is being stacked against US companies. At the same time, US exports to China continue to grow rapidly and US invested companies report strong profits. Many also note that low cost imports from China keep the cost of living in the US low and enhance the competiveness of some US companies in global markets. President Bush has described our relations with China as "complex." Our economic relationship is the embodiment of that description.
Henry A. (Hank) Levine serves as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Asia in the International Trade Administration's office of Market Access and Compliance. His responsibilities include the market access concerns and compliance with international trade agreements that affect U.S. companies operating in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, and the member countries of ASEAN. In his career State Department Foreign Service Officer, Mr. Levine has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Europe, the U.S. Consul General in Shanghai, China and Deputy Director for Economic Affairs in the State Department's Office of Chinese Affairs. Mr. Levine has a B.A. in Political Science from Bucknell University. He did graduate work in international affairs at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is a 1993 graduate, with distinction, from the U.S. National War College. He is fluent in Chinese (Mandarin).
Series Co-sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.
Philippines Conference Room