Sudan's Upcoming Referendum: Preventing the Next War
CISAC Conference Room
Shorenstein APARC scholars discuss President Obama's November 2010 Asia visit
Beyond his childhood ties to Hawai'i and Indonesia and his
self-styled designation as "America's first Pacific President,"
President Barack Obama has demonstrated significant and genuine interest in
Asia and in developing trans-Pacific ties. He embarked on November 5 for the
second presidential visit to Asia during his term, and while there he will
visit India, Indonesia, South Korea to attend the summit of the Group of 20
(G20), and finally to Japan to attend the annual heads of state meeting of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference. Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton will travel a week ahead of Obama to attend the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in
Vietnam, followed by visits to Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and
Australia. Her trip will include an added-in stop to China's Hainan Island. To
address major issues surrounding the President's trip to Asia--including the
"China question" and historic U.S. bilateral alliances--four scholars
from the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC)
gathered for a public panel discussion on October 27.
Thomas Fingar, Oksenberg/Rohlen Distinguished Fellow of the
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, spoke about the
symbolic aspects of Obama's visit, noting the importance of a presidential
visit for showing a sense of real commitment to the region and an
acknowledgement of the "rise" of countries like China and India. On a
more pragmatic side, he also suggested that meeting in person with other
leaders is crucial in order to "bring about deliverables." The
omission of a visit to China should not be weighed too heavily, Fingar said,
pointing out that the President visited China last year. The stops in Japan and South Korea are tied to
important multilateral meetings, though they will also reaffirm longstanding
ties with those allies, while the visit to India is an indication of growing
relations between the two countries. Of particular importance is Obama's
participation in the G20 Summit in South Korea and the APEC meeting in Japan
because, Fingar stated, a major purpose of the visit is about the "United
States having a role in building new multilateral institutions." Finally,
while much of the success of the Asia trip rests on how well Obama conducts
himself, Fingar expressed confidence that the President would skillfully manage
the visit.
During his visit to Indonesia, Obama will meet with Indonesia's President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for a bilateral
discussion of such issues as economics, security, and higher education. Donald K. Emmerson, director of the Southeast Asia Forum, said that the
postponement of earlier-planned visits to Indonesia has lessened some of the
enthusiasm for Obama's "homecoming" to Jakarta. China's omission on
the trip agenda is noteworthy, he suggested, and Clinton's addition of a stop
in Hainan is due, in part, to help alleviate recent tension between the United
States and China regarding China's claim of sovereignty over the South China
Sea. Clinton's involvement in the EAS is an "important multilateral
engagement" for the United States because of the presence of its ally
Japan and the fact that the United States and China both have a voice there,
unlike the ASEAN Plus Three meetings that do not include the United States.
While in recent months the U.S.-China relationship has become more strained,
Emmerson asserted that the "United States is not going to get into a cold
war with China."
Obama will travel from Indonesia to South Korea for the G20 Summit, another
major multilateral engagement during his travels. David Straub,
associate director of the Korean Studies Program, described several significant
aspects of this time in South Korea. While not technically an organization,
Straub said, the Summit is an important forum for the discussion of economic
stability and growth. Similar to Fingar, Straub noted the efficacy and
significance of in-person meetings. The Summit provides an opportunity for
world leaders to have face-to-face discussions on non-economic issues, such as
North Korea's political situation. Straub suggested that President Lee
Myung-bak's investment in the Summit is based, in part, on raising South
Korea's global prestige, which is tied also to increasing the status of the G20
to become the premiere global financial organization. Finally, Straub stated
that alongside the G20 meeting, Obama and Lee are expected discuss bilateral
relations, which are at an all-time high, including the stalled U.S.-South
Korea free trade agreement (Korus FTA). The FTA, which would be the most
significant free trade agreement for the United States since NAFTA, has faced
opposition and mixed support on both sides.
Obama's visit to India will be the third U.S. presidential visit there in the
past decade, which is indicative of changing U.S. perceptions of India brought
about through the IT boom and growing economic ties, suggested Daniel C. Sneider, associate director of research for Shorenstein APARC. Sneider
pointed to a broader shared agenda despite a lack of clarity on some issues,
such as Pakistan, and a focus on India as Asia's "other" growing economy. He
stated that he would be watching for the United States and India to work
together to emphasize India's role in East Asia, highlighted by India's
participation in the EAS. India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has championed
a "look east" policy and expressed stronger interest in East Asia, especially
China. In terms of Obama's visit to the APEC heads of state conference in
Japan, Sneider noted the importance of this trip also for the U.S.-Japan
alliance. The newly formed government of Prime Minister Naoto Kan has
worked to ease tensions in the alliance and both countries hope to use the
visit to bolster a more positive image of the alliance. Certain points of
contention, like the move of the U.S. military base on Okinawa, have been put
aside for the time being. Sneider stated that recent China-Japan tensions have
also served to reinforce the importance of the relationship.
Events during Obama's Asia visit in the next two weeks will help to solidify or possibly call into question his image as the "Pacific President," and undoubtedly influence the role of the United States in Asia for the future.
Cultural critic Susie Linfield discusses 'The ethics of seeing'
As a little girl Susie Linfield was captivated by a book she
discovered on her parents' bookshelf entitled The Black Book of Polish Jewry.
Published in the early 1940s, it included photos of starving Jews in the
ghettos. “I was grieved by them. I was shamed by them. But I was also sort of
compelled by them,” says Linfield, the director of the Cultural Reporting and
Criticism Program at New York University. Decades later, she reflected again on
the way photographs informed her view of war and atrocities as she examined the
photos emerging from the Balkans, Rwanda, and other trouble spots. In her new book, The Cruel Radiance: Photography and Political Violence (University
of Chicago Press), Linfield returns to this theme. She recently gave a talk at
Stanford as part of the Stanford Ethics & War Series (2010-2011), sponsored in part by the Center
for International Security and Cooperation, and she spoke with CISAC about
changes in photojournalism, the political context behind warfare, and what she
calls “the ethics of seeing.” Excerpts:
CISAC: In your book you look at two different approaches to war
photography—that of Robert Capa, the Hungarian war photographer of the 1930s
and 1940s, and the modern war photographer James Nachtwey, who has chronicled
more recent conflict. How are world events reflected in their photography?
Linfield: One of the observations in my book is that war and its related
atrocities are photographed in a much more graphic way than they used to be.
The level of atrocity and bodily disfigurement that we are now used to seeing
in photographs is something very different than the kind of photojournalism
that was done in the 1920s through the 1950s. That connects in some ways to the
lessening of political certainty. In other words, the kind of political and
ideological factors that used to determine war are much less prevalent in a lot
of the wars that are being fought now. If you look at the war in the Congo,
it’s just a horrific, horrific situation with millions of people killed. But
it’s very hard to understand that war in any sort of traditional political
paradigm, certainly not the paradigm of something like the Spanish civil war.
There, one could understand the political dynamics and certainly feel
solidarity with one side or another. With a lot of the wars we're presented
with now, I think that kind of solidarity and political clarity is very, very
hard to come by. So I think what we’re presented with visually is the bodily
disfigurement, the tortured bodies, but without any kind of political context
in which to understand it.
CISAC: How are today’s photos perceived by viewers,
as opposed to back in Capa’s time?
L: I think there’s much more resistance to seeing photographs now than there
was in Capa’s time. And again I think that’s connected to the lack of political
clarity. People aren’t really sure why they’re seeing them or what to think
when they do, and I think that has turned into a resentment against photography
and against photojournalism in particular—that we’re just being assaulted by
these meaningless images. These images aren’t meaningless. But they do take a
lot of work to try to understand.
CISAC: How is this tied to ethics?
L: I think there is something I would call the ethics of seeing. To me that’s
not an instantaneous thing. It would be very connected to the idea of really
trying to delve into the histories that these photographs suggest and really
trying to understand them and understand the causes of the violence. And in
terms of the ethics of showing, I am much less critical of photojournalists
than I think a lot of other critics are, especially with someone like James Nachtwey.
He’s accused of being a pornographer, exploiting—his stuff is disgusting,
unbearable, unwatchable. And it is disgusting and unbearable in certain ways,
but I don’t think he’s a pornographer. And I don’t think he’s a nihilist. I
think he’s showing us images that are very, very difficult to look at. And
they’re very, very difficult to look at for two reasons. One, the explicitness
of them is very, very painful. To see bodies that tormented is extraordinarily
painful. And I think they’re also difficult to look at because it’s very hard
to have a political context in which to understand these images. In a certain
sense we’re sort of left with our troubled emotions, but not really knowing what
to do with them.
Principle, Pragmatism or Prostitution? Speaking Human Rights to Global Finance
Professor David Kinley holds the Chair in Human Rights Law at University of Sydney, and is the Law Faculty's Associate-Dean (International). He is also an Academic Panel member of Doughty Street Chambers in London, the UK's leading human rights practice. He has previously held positions at Cambridge University, The Australian National University, the University of New South Wales, Washington College of Law, American University, and was the founding Director of the Castan Centre for Human Rights Law at Monash University (2000-2005). He was a Senior Fulbright Scholar in 2004, based in Washington DC, and Herbert Smith Visiting Fellow at the Faculty of Law, University of Cambridge in 2008. He is author and editor of eight books and more than 80 articles, book chapters, reports and papers.
He has worked for 15 years as a consultant and adviser on international and domestic human rights law in Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Iraq, Nepal, Laos, China, and Myanmar/Burma, and for such organizations as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the World Bank, the Ford Foundation, AusAID, and the Asia Pacific Forum of National Human Rights Institutions, and a number of transnational corporations, and NGOs. He has also previously worked for three years with the Australian Law Reform Commission and two years with the Australian Human Rights Commission.
His latest publications include the critically acclaimed Civilising Globalisation: Human Rights and the Global Economy (CUP, 2009), Corporations and Human Rights (Ashgate 2009), and The World Trade Organisation and Human Rights: Interdisciplinary Perspectives (Edward Elgar, 2009) Another edited collection entitled Principled Engagement: Promoting Human Rights in Pariah States will be published by UNU Publications in 2011. He is currently working on another book investigating the interrelations between human rights and global finance.
David was born in Belfast, Northern Ireland and brought up there during the 1960s and 70s. He studied in England in the 1980s at Sheffield Hallam University and the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge, and after obtaining his doctorate from the latter in 1990 he moved to Australia. He now lives in Sydney with his wife and three children.
Encina Ground Floor Conference Room
Making Gov 2.0 Work in Africa: The Case of Kibera
The Gov 2.0 movement, centered on open public data and low cost communications tools, is making an impact on public life in the US and UK. To what extent do these tools matter for the increasing proportion of the world's population living in urban poverty? This talk explores the case of Map Kibera, a project in Nairobi's largest slum, that utilizes open data combined with new and traditional advocacy tools, to fight for improved social services and increased accountability for public officials. Map Kibera helps us think about the role a robust Gov 2.0 eco-system can play in supporting grassroots leaders as the fight for the future of their communities.
Joshua Goldstein (@african_minute) is a PhD candidate at Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School, where he works with the Center for Information Technology Policy. He serves on the Board of the Ugandan software consultancy Appfrica Labs, and has worked extensively in East Africa, most recently consulting with UNICEF Innovations, and working on projects such as Map Kibera and Apps4Africa.
While completing his masters degree at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, he interned with Google Inc. on technology policy in Africa and with Harvard's Berkman Center for Internet & Society, exploring the effect of Internet on democracy. Before graduate school he worked extensively in Uganda.
Wallenberg Theater
On the Use of Statistical Models to Predict Crop Yield Responses to Climate Change
Predicting the potential effects of climate change on crop yields requires a model of how crops respond to weather. As predictions from different models often disagree, understanding the sources of this divergence is central to building a more robust picture of climate change's likely impacts. A common approach is to use statistical models trained on historical yields and some simplified measurements of weather, such as growing season average temperature and precipitation. Although the general strengths and weaknesses of statistical models are widely understood, there has been little systematic evaluation of their performance relative to other methods. Here we use a perfect model approach to examine the ability of statistical models to predict yield responses to changes in mean temperature and precipitation, as simulated by a process-based crop model. The CERES-Maize model was first used to simulate historical maize yield variability at nearly 200 sites in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the impacts of hypothetical future scenarios of 2◦C warming and 20% precipitation reduction. Statistical models of three types (time series, panel, and cross-sectional models) were then trained on the simulated historical variability and used to predict the responses to the future climate changes. The agreement between the process-based and statistical models' predictions was then assessed as a measure of how well statistical models can capture crop responses to warming or precipitation changes. The performance of statistical models differed by climate variable and spatial scale, with time-series statistical models ably reproducing site-specific yield response to precipitation change, but performing less well for temperature responses. In contrast, statistical models that relied on information from multiple sites, namely panel and cross-sectional models, were better at predicting responses to temperature change than precipitation change. The models based on multiple sites were also much less sensitive to the length of historical period used for training. For all three statistical approaches, the performance improved when individual sites were first aggregated to country-level averages. Results suggest that statistical models, as compared to CERES-Maize, represent a useful if imperfect tool for projecting future yield responses, with their usefulness higher at broader spatial scales. It is also at these broader scales that climate projections are most available and reliable, and therefore statistical models are likely to continue to play an important role in anticipating future impacts of climate change.